19 a trial calculation of effect on disaster … · measures to minimize of damage by tsunami....

121

A TRIAL CALCULATION OF EFFECT ON DISASTER REDUCTION AT FISHING PORT USING INPOT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

Koji OTSUKA*, Fumihiko IMAMURA**, Ken-ichi SATOH***, Miyoshi HOSAKA****

* Senior Consultant, The Japanese Institute of Technology on Fishing Ports, Grounds and Communities

** Prof., Tsunami Engineering Laboratory, Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University

*** Manager, Emergency Management Division, General Affairs Department, Kesennuma-City

**** The Japanese Institute of Technology on Fishing Ports, Grounds and Communities

Damage to a fishing port caused by Earthquakes or Tsunamis has a significant effect on regional

industries in a city whose key industry is fishery. In the past, only the direct damage was subject to

calculation of the damage caused by Earthquakes or Tsunamis. In order to predict seismic/tsunami

disasters and the effect of disaster-reduction measures, not only the direct damage but also the indirect

damage need to be taken into consideration. To this end, we tried to calculate the effect of

disaster-reduction measures at fishing port using an input-output analysis as a model.

Key Words : Tsunami, input-output analysis, disaster mitigation

1．Purpose of the Study

Fishery is a key industry of Kesen-numa City,

centering round the Kesen-numa fishing port.

Damage to a fishing port caused by Earthquakes or

Tsunamis has a significant effect on regional

industries in a city whose key industry is fishery1). In

the past, only the direct damage was subject to

calculation of the damage caused by Earthquakes or

Tsunamis. However, if a fishing port is damaged, it

would not only adversely affect unloading and

shipping of marine products but operation of fish

processing facilities at the rear of the port, thus

having a significant effect on the entire regional

economy. In order to predict seismic/tsunami

disasters and the effect of disaster-reduction measures,

not only the direct damage but also the indirect

damage need to be taken into consideration. To this

end, we tried to calculate the effect of

disaster-reduction measures at Kesen-numa Fishing

Port using an input-output analysis as a model.

2．Effect of Damage to a Fishing Port on the Regional Economy

2.1 Effect of Damage to a Fishing Port on the Regional Economy

In generally, effect of damage is calculated using

difference of amount of damage with and without

countermeasures.

Effect of Damage =

Amount of Damage Without Countermeasures

– Amount of Damage With Countermeasure (1)

If a fishing port is damaged by Earthquakes and

Tsunamis, it would not only adversely affect

unloading and shipping of marine products but

operation of fish processing facilities at the rear of

the port, thus having a significant effect on the entire

regional economy. We discussed, in addition to the

direct damage, the negative spread damages through

the use of input-output analysis, for the purpose of

establishing a method of calculating the effect of

disaster-reduction measures2).

2.2 Probability of Earthquake Occurrence Next 30 Years

Kesen-numa City was attacked by Tsunami many

times. Fig. 1 shows probability of Miyagi

Earthquakes occurrence next 30 years at offshore of

Kesen-numa City. Miyagi Earthquake, single type, is

presumed the occurrence of probability of 99% and

80～90%3).

122

Miyagi（Single）（≒Ｍ７.５）９９％

Miyagi（Synchronized）（≒Ｍ８）

Miyagi（Single）（≒Ｍ７.７）８０～９０％

Kesen-numa

Fig. 1 Probability of Miyagi Offshore Earthquakes

Occurrence Next 30 Years

3．Situation of Kesen-numa Bay

Kesen-numa fishing port is located at bottom of

Kesen-numa Bay. Fishery is a key industry of

Kesen-numa City, centering round the Kesen-numa

fishing port. Kesen-numa fishing port gathers from

the whole country fishing vessels, unloads, and has

the role of the distribution base of fisheries products.

And also, the aquaculture is active in the Kesen-numa

bay, a lot of fishing ports are distributed in the littoral

region in the bay. The fish unloaded at the

Kesen-numa fishing port is not only supplied to the

consumer but also supplied to the fishery processing

factories. So, Kesen-numa fishing port has a

prominent role for the regional economy.

There are a lot of objects in the market as fish

selecting machines, fish boxes, many kind of vehicles

and workers. On the other hand, there are a lot of

objects also in the bay as fishing vessels, vehicles,

aquaculture rafts.

The function of the fishing port stops when these

drift by the Tsunami.

KenenKenen--numanuma Fishing PortFishing Port

Fish Fish Landing Landing PlacePlace

KenenKenen--numanuma Fishing PortFishing Port

Fish Fish Landing Landing PlacePlace

Fig. 2 Kesen-numa Fishing Ports

Fish Boxes & Workers


Fish Boxes & Vehicles


Fish Selecting Machines


VehiclesVehicles







VehiclesVehicles

Fig. 3 Objects in the Fish Market

Fig. 4 shows the drift simulation of the aquaculture

rafts by Miyagi Synchronized Type Earthquake. In

the drift simulation of the aquaculture rafts, the sea

route is blockaded by the raft's drifting, and

dispersing them in the bay. Therefore, it becomes

impossible for the vessels to sail. A disaster

Reduction measures necessary to secure the function

of the fishing port when the Tsunami raids are mainly

the driftage measures 4,5) .

Distributed Aquaculture RaftsDistributed Aquaculture Rafts Raft’ Drifting, DispersingRaft’ Drifting, DispersingMiyagi （Synchronized Type）Miyagi Miyagi （（Synchronized Synchronized TTypeype））

Sea Rout Is Blockaded

Distributed Aquaculture RaftsDistributed Aquaculture RaftsDistributed Aquaculture RaftsDistributed Aquaculture Rafts Raft’ Drifting, DispersingRaft’ Drifting, DispersingMiyagi （Synchronized Type）Miyagi Miyagi （（Synchronized Synchronized TTypeype））

Sea Rout Is BlockadedSea Rout Is BlockadedSea Rout Is Blockaded

Fig. 4 Result of Drift Simulation of the

Aquaculture Rafts

In Kesen-numa, several-time workshops are held

participated not only city office staff, but also the fish

market staff, fisheries corporative association and

local residents and so on. At the workshops, they

discussed with countermeasure against to Tsunami

(Fig.5). And also, preparatory evacuation training was

executed participating fishermen, mainly evacuation

of fishing vessels against to Tsunami in last autumn.

Therefore, parties concerned have high appreciation

against to Tsunami.

123

Countermeasures?Countermeasures?Tsunami?Tsunami?

Local OfficersFish Market staffsFish Processing FactoryFishermen (FCA), etc.

High Appreciation

Evacuation Training

Local OfficersFish Market staffsFish Processing FactoryFishermen (FCA), etc.

High Appreciation

Evacuation Training

Fig. 5 Activities Disaster Reduction

against Tsunami

4．Damage of Tsunami by Chilean Earthquake 2010

End of this February, Chilean Tsunami attacked

Kesen-numa City. In case of Miyagi Earthquake

Tsunami, Synchronized Type, Tsunami flood depth

assumed in the fish market is about 2～3m. But on

this time, it was approximately 0.5m measured by Dr.

Imamura as show as Fig. 6.

There are 1,500 Fish Boxes in the fish market

didn’t flow out to the outside caused by rope fixing

by fish market staffs as show as Fig. 7.

Fish Market Closed on SundayFish Market Closed on Sunday

≒0.5ｍChilean Tsunami≒2～3ｍMiyagi（Synchronized）

Flood depth

≒0.5ｍChilean Tsunami≒2～3ｍMiyagi（Synchronized）

Flood depth

Fig. 6 Tsunami Overflowed on the Fish Market

1,500 Fish Boxes(１ｔ)1,500 Fish Boxes(１ｔ) Didn’t flow out to the outside

Didn’t flow out to the outside

Fig. 7 Damage of Fish Boxes in the Fish Market

Fig.8 shows the situation of evacuation and

countermeasures for driftage. Residents evacuated to

higher place by themselves. Vehicles, including

forklifts, were evacuated to roof top on the fish

market by the fish market staffs. Fishing vessels

evacuated to given safety sea area by fishermen. Big

fishing vessels were tied strongly by fishing port

management body.

ForkliftsForklifts VehiclesVehicles

Fig. 8 Evacuation & Other Measures

On the other hand, a lot of aquaculture rafts are set

up in the Kesen-numa bay as mentioned above. These

rafts were great damaged as drift by the Tsunami (Fig.

9). According to the calculation by Dr. Fujima,

maximum current velocity was over 3m/s. When

current velocity 1m/s is exceeded, it is reported that

the aquaculture rafts damage begins to appear by Dr.

Shyuto and Dr. Imamura6).

Raft Type(Oyster)

Raft TypeRaft Type(Oyster)

Trawl line Type(Seaweed)

Trawl line TypeTrawl line Type(Seaweed)

Max. Velocity<3m/s(calculated by Dr. Fijima) Max. Velocity<3m/sMax. Velocity<3m/s

(calculated by Dr. Fijima)

Raft Type(Oyster)

Raft TypeRaft Type(Oyster)

Trawl line Type(Seaweed)

Trawl line TypeTrawl line Type(Seaweed)

Max. Velocity<3m/s(calculated by Dr. Fijima) Max. Velocity<3m/sMax. Velocity<3m/s

(calculated by Dr. Fijima)

Fig. 9 Damage of Aquaculture Rafts

5． Analysis of industrial structure and planning of disaster-reduction measures

Based on mentioned above information, we tried to

analyze of industrial structure and to plan of the

disaster-reduction measures.

Step 1 Service Supply Flowchart for Each Industrial Sector

Fig.10 shows, fishery, food-processing industry and

other industries based on the fishery are key

industries of Kesen-numa City to take measures for

disaster-reduction against Tsunami focusing on

Fishery leads to the decline of damage to the regional

economy.

124

FisheryFisheryFishery

Food-processing

Industry

FoodFood--processing processing

IIndustryndustry

CommerceCommerceTransportatiTransportation Industryon IndustryService IndustryService Industry

ManufacturingManufacturing

Energy, etc.Energy, etc.Fishery Product & Processing

Distribution & Processing

FisheryFisheryFishery

Food-processing

Industry

FoodFood--processing processing

IIndustryndustry

CommerceCommerceTransportatiTransportation Industryon IndustryService IndustryService Industry

ManufacturingManufacturing

Energy, etc.Energy, etc.Fishery Product & Processing

Distribution & Processing

Fig. 10 Service Supply Flowchart of Each

Industrial Sector

Step 2 Sum Ratio of the Top 7 Sectors of Internal Production Amount

First, we analyzed the industrial structure of

Kesen-numa City. The top seven sectors which have

the larger internal production value were extracted

from the input-output table of the city. Then, the

service supply ratios by each industrial sector were

shown Table 1.

Table 1 Sum ratio of the top 7 sectors of

internal production amount

Sum ratio Fishery

Food-processi

ng industr

y

Manufacturin

g

Energy, etc

Commerce

Transportatio

n industr

y

Service industr

y

Fishery 0.039 0.960 - - - - 0.001Food-processing industry

0.019 0.958 0.001 - - 0.000 0.023

Manufacturing 0.065 0.165 0.210 0.021 0.043 0.112 0.385

Energy, etc. 0.375 0.162 0.033 0.088 0.065 0.050 0.227

Commerce

0.042 0.666 0.047 0.008 0.028 0.050 0.159

Transportation

industry 0.033 0.235 0.032 0.023 0.192 0.235 0.251

Service industry

0.068 0.079 0.036 0.040 0.164 0.179 0.434

Step 3 Setting as a Scenario of Disaster Reduction Measures

We emphasized a BCP (Business Continuity Plan)

basic concept setting a scenario of disaster-reduction

measures to minimize of damage by Tsunami. Based

on the result of analysis, change in the industrial

structure after a disaster with and without

disaster-reduction measures was set as a scenario.

If there are no countermeasures, fishing boats and

aquaculture cages around fishing ports would drift as

driftage by Tsunami. As it will take a long period of

time to remove them and restore fisheries

infrastructures, the distribution of marine products

will be delayed, and in its turn, industries such as

“fishery” and “food-processing industry” will be

stagnated for a long time.

In a case where countermeasures to minimize the

retention of driftage by Tsunami are taken, time

required for removing them and restoring fisheries

infrastructures will be reduced and the distribution of

marine products will recover rapidly. Therefore, the

stagnation of industries such as “fishery” and

“food-processing industry” will be held down, etc.

Step 4 Setting of Numerical Value in the Input-Output Table According to Disaster-Reduction Scenario

(1) Prerequisites - The structure of expenditures injection for each

industrial sector is uniform.

- The intraregional end demand is assumed to

fluctuate according to evacuation situation of

regional residents, etc.

(2) Reflection on Values in the Input-Output Table According to of Disaster-Reduction Measure Scenario Equations

- On the assumption that the input-output ratio of cost

is fixed, an operating ratio is multiplied by a

constant value

- If an operating ratio of the fishery sector is lower

than that of other sectors, the supply to other sectors

is adjusted to the operating ratio of the fishery

sector

- If an operating ratio of the food-processing industry

is lower than other sectors excluding the fishery

sector, the supply to other sectors excluding the

fishery sector is adjusted to the operating ratio of

the food-processing sector, etc. (3) Setting of Operation ratio of each

Industrial Sector

Next, we set of numerical value in the input-output

table according to the disaster-reduction scenario.

First, we presumed operation ratio of fishery, food

processing industry and other Industries. Fig.11

shows fishery sector as example.

An evacuation population and the damage ratio of

125

houses, fishing boats and operating ratio of factories

were estimated based on questionnaire surveys

already conducted and a supposed flood area for each

industrial sector in the input-output table.

WithWithout

Operation Ratio of FisheryFishery


Minimum Operation Ratio of FisheryFishery

Oper

atio

n Ra

tioOp

erat

ion

Ratio

Oper

atio

n Ra

tio

Elapsed days After Disaster



Influence Factors

Operation Ratio by each Influence Factors

Without

With

DisasterDisaster

DisasterDisaster

WithWithout




Oper

atio

n Ra

tioOp

erat

ion

Ratio

Oper

atio

n Ra

tio




Influence Factors

Operation Ratio by each Influence Factors

Without

With

DisasterDisaster

DisasterDisaster

Fig. 11 Setting Operation Ratio (1)

But, if an operating ratio of the fishery sector is

lower than that of other sectors, the supply to other

sectors is adjusted to the operating ratio of the fishery

sector. If an operating ratio of the food-processing

industry is lower than other sectors excluding the

fishery sector, the supply to other sectors excluding

the fishery sector is adjusted to the operating ratio of

the food-processing sector, etc.


Minimum Operation Ratio of Food ProcessingFood Processing

Minimum Operation Ratio of OthersOthers



Elapsed days After DisasterOper

atio

n Ra

tioOp

erat

ion

Ratio

Oper

atio

n Ra

tio

With

Without

With

Without

With

Without

DisasterDisaster

DisasterDisaster

DisasterDisaster







atio

n Ra

tioOp

erat

ion

Ratio

Oper

atio

n Ra

tio

With

Without

With

Without

With

Without







atio

n Ra

tioOp

erat

ion

Ratio

Oper

atio

n Ra

tio

With

Without

With

Without

With

Without

DisasterDisaster

DisasterDisaster

DisasterDisaster

Fig. 12 Setting Operation Ratio (2)

An operating ratio of each industrial sector from

the next date of the disaster to the completion of

restoration (three years later) was varied based on

restoration performance of other areas.

The result was reflected on the values in the

input-output table.

6．Estimation Results of Disaster Reduction Effect Using the Production Amount as Index

From the mentioned above, we estimated of

disaster-reduction effect using the production amount

as index.

6.1 Production Amount after the Occurrence of Disaster

The production amount by elapsed day was

estimated in two cases; “with disaster-reduction

measures” and “without them.” The comparison result

of the production amount in two cases shows that a

large difference arises in terms of production amount

in the emergency reaction period after the disaster

(one week ～ six months) and the difference is not

large in the restoration period (one year ～ three

years) as show as Fig. 13.

The damage amount without disaster-reduction

measures is about 169.2 billion yen while the amount

is about 4.8 billion yen with those measures. The

implementation of disaster-reduction measures has a

damage-reduction effect of about 164.4 billion yen. The trial calculation results are approximate to a

BCP (Business Continuity Plan) general basic

concept and it was confirmed that the effect of

disaster-reduction measures appeared in a similar way

to a BCP basic concept.

Fig. 13 Production amount after the

occurrence of disaster (per day)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0 0 1 10 100 1000 10000

経過日数（対数）

１日

当の

生産

額（

百万

円）

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0 0 1 10 100 1000 10000


１日

当の

生産

額（

百万

円）

DisasterDisasterElapsed days (Elapsed days ( logarithm) logarithm)

Prod

uctio

n pe

r day

Pr

oduc

tion

per d

ay

(mill

ion

yen)

(mill

ion

yen)

With 4.8 billion yen

With With 4.8 billion yen4.8 billion yen

Without 169.2 billion yen

Without Without 169.2 billion yen169.2 billion yen

Until the Occurrence of DisasterUntil the Occurrence of DisasterUntil the Occurrence of Disaster

Effect164.4 billion yen

EffectEffect164.4 billion yen164.4 billion yen

(Day)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0 0 1 10 100 1000 10000


１日

当の

生産

額（

百万

円）

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0 0 1 10 100 1000 10000


１日

当の

生産

額（

百万

円）

DisasterDisasterElapsed days (Elapsed days ( logarithm) logarithm)

Prod

uctio

n pe

r day

Pr

oduc

tion

per d

ay

(mill

ion

yen)

(mill

ion

yen)

With 4.8 billion yen

With With 4.8 billion yen4.8 billion yen

Without 169.2 billion yen

Without Without 169.2 billion yen169.2 billion yen

Until the Occurrence of DisasterUntil the Occurrence of DisasterUntil the Occurrence of Disaster

Effect164.4 billion yen

EffectEffect164.4 billion yen164.4 billion yen

(Day)

126

6.2 Estimation Results of Disaster Reduction Effect using the Production Amount as Index

At the result that calculation of effect on disaster

reduction on fishing port using input-output analysis,

It became clear the following. The transaction of each

sector of industry in the region becomes clear. The

ripple damage to the related industries can be

clarified. Measures for the minimization of damage

by Tsunami can be understood by the time step. Not

only fishermen but also people in the region will have

high appreciation against to Tsunami.

7．Conclusion

The trial calculation results are approximate to a

BCP (Business Continuity Plan) general basic

concept and it was confirmed that the effect of

disaster-reduction measures appeared in a similar way

to a BCP basic concept. We will make efforts to solve

the problems for utilizing input-output analysis to

establish an effect calculation method of

disaster-reduction measures in the future. Finally, not only fishermen also people in the

region will have high appreciation and execute the

action against to Tsunami by understanding the

influence and the effect of disaster-reduction

measures7).

謝辞

本論文は水産庁委託事業「漁業地域の減災モデ

リング事業」の一部をとりまとめたものである．

事業の実施にあたり協力頂いた関係各位に陳謝

申し上げる．

参考文献

1) 災害に強い漁業地域づくりガイドライン，(社)全国

漁港漁場協会，2006

2) 水産物産地市場の減災計画策定マニュアル，水産庁

漁港漁場整備部，2010

3) 海溝型地震の長期評価の概要：文部科学省地震調査

研究推進本部，2010

4) 水谷将・大塚浩二・中村隆・伊藤敏朗：津波シミュ

レーションを用いた災害に強い漁業地域づくり，第

5 回全国漁港漁場整備技術研究発表会講演集，pp134

～143，2006

5) Koji OTSUKA・Hiroyuki KATO・Ken-ichi SATOH・

Koji FUJIMA ： THE BEHAVIOR OF TSUNAMI

INDUCED DRIFTAGE AND IT’S PROBLEM IN THE

FISHING AREAS, PACON 2010, pp83

6) 藤間功司・鴫原良典・加藤広之・丹治雄一：2010

年チリ津波による養殖施設の被害調査，地域安全学

会梗概集 No.26，2010

7) Koji OTSUKA ・ Fumihiko IMAMURA ・ Sadayuki

OKA・Ken-ichi SATOH・Miyoshi HOSAKA： A Trial

Calculation of Effect on Disaster Reduction at Fishing

Ports Using Input-Output Analysis, The 3rd

International Tsunami Field Symposium, pp153～154

19 a trial calculation of effect on disaster … · measures to minimize of damage by tsunami....

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