18 th annual meeting of the american-russian business council deputy minister of finance
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18 th Annual Meeting of the American-Russian Business Council Deputy Minister of Finance Russian Federation Alexander Novak October 21 , 2010 San Francisco. Main Indicators, seasonally adjusted ( index 2008=100). GDP. Industrial Production. Retail Trade. Investments. 2. 2. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
М ]ф
18th Annual Meeting of the American-Russian Business Council
Deputy Minister of FinanceRussian Federation
Alexander Novak
October 21, 2010 San Francisco
М ]ф Main Indicators, seasonally adjusted(index 2008=100)
22
GDP Industrial Production
Investments Retail Trade
М ]ф
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2008 2009 2010
III IV I II III IV I II III IV
1998 1999
1997-1999Q4 1997=100
2008-2010Q2 2008=100
Seasonally adjusted GDP Growth Rate
33
М ]ф
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Japan
Germany
USA
Euroarea
Developed Countries, GDP Growth Rate (related to Q4 2006)
44
М ]ф
55
The recovery of investment activity sharply shifted into low gear in 2010
М ]ф
66
index 2008=100, seasonally adjusted
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2008 2009 2010
Retail trade turnover Real wages
Consumption is the main driver of growth in 2010. Retail trade turnover is supported by the population income growth and reduction of the savings rate…
М ]ф
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic production for internal marketDomestic demand
Domestic demand
Contribution to domestic demand growth, % YoY
77
….at the same time domestic demand growth has become more import oriented
М ]фOil prices provided for the most part of the post-crisis growth.Dependence of the economy on oil grew significantly.
88
% USD/barrel
• share of the oil and gas sector grew from 14% of GDP in 1998 to 21% of GDP in 2008.• share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget grew from 15% in 1998 to 47% in 2008.
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP, index 2008=100 Urals price, USD/barrel (rhs)
М ]ф
%
GDP growth is likely to stabilize at around 4% during the next 3 years
99
М ]ф
-6
-4-2
02
4
68
10
1214
1618
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
gro
wth
, %labor productivity real wages
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007200820092010201120122013
gro
wth
, %
GDP deflator CPI
10
In the forecast period labor productivity growth will be comparable with the wages growth.
М ]ф
95,8
98,8 99,0
96,1
93,8
92,0
105,2 105,0
109,1
113,9
96,9
100,8
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
GDP energy intensity, 2007=100 (lhs) GDP growth, 2007=100 (rhs)
% %
Improvement of the energy efficiency and structural changes in the economy will provide for decline in the energy intensity of the economy by 2-3% annually.
11
М ]ф
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Urals, USD/barrel 61,1 75 76 78 79
GDP, % -7,9 4,0 4,2 3,9 4,5
Inflation, % Dec/Dec 8,8 7-8 6-7 5-6 4,5-5,5
Manufacturing, % -9,3 7,6 3,9 3,8 4,9
Investment, % -16,2 2,5 10,0 3,5 7,4
Real wage, % -3,5 4,9 3,5 4,0 4,7
Real disposable income, % 2,3 4,4 3,6 3,6 4,2
Exports, bln. USD 303 378 389 412 432
Imports, bln.USD 192 241 278 303 334
М ]ф 13
Federal Budget Revenues (bln. rub.)
9 275,9
7 337,87 860,9
8 844,69 503,5
10 379,9
0,0
1 000,0
2 000,0
3 000,0
4 000,0
5 000,0
6 000,0
7 000,0
8 000,0
9 000,0
10 000,0
11 000,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-20,9%
+7,1%
+12,5%
+7,5%
+9,2% 112%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD bln.
373,1 230,5 258,6 290,0 309,6 334,8
М ]ф 14
Federal Budget Revenues(real terms, 2008 = 100%)
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
100,0%
72,7% 72,1%76,2% 77,2% 80,0%
М ]ф 15
Federal Budget Expenditure (bln. rub.)
7 570,9
9 660,110 232,8
10 658,611 237,9
12 175,6
0,01 000,02 000,03 000,04 000,05 000,06 000,07 000,08 000,09 000,0
10 000,011 000,012 000,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
+27,6%
+5,9%+4,2%
+5,4%
+8,3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD bln. 304,6 303,5 336,6 349,5 366,1 392,8
М ]ф 16
100,0
117,3 115,0 112,5 111,9 114,9
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Federal Budget Expenditure(real terms, 2008 = 100%)
М ]ф 17
Deficit (Proficit) of the Federal Budget (% of GDP)
4,1
-5,9-5,3
-3,6-3,1 -2,9
-1,5
0,0
-7,0
-5,0
-3,0
-1,0
1,0
3,0
5,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
М ]ф 18
Sources for Federal Budget Deficiency Payment (bln. rub.)
59,8%
86,3%
15,7%
0,1%
0,3%
16,4%
15,9% 17,2%
13,6%
39,9%
67,9%
84,1% 82,8%
-2 500,0
-2 000,0
-1 500,0
-1 000,0
-500,0
0,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reserves fund Privatization Other sources
-2 322,3 -2 371,9
-1 814,0-1 734,4 -1 795,7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD bln. -73,0 -78,0 -59,5 -56,5 -57,9
М ]ф 19
Volume of Borrowings (bln. rub.)
272,4
518,9
1 270,9
1 931,5
2 245,22 323,9
687,2593,4
498,6337,0
203,5215,5
0,0
200,0
400,0
600,0
800,0
1 000,0
1 200,0
1 400,0
1 600,0
1 800,0
2 000,0
2 200,0
2 400,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Borrowings Payments
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Net borrowings 56,9 315,4 933,9 1 432,9 1 651,8 1 636,7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Borrowings, USD bln. 10,9 16,4 41,8 63,3 731 75,0
Payments, USD bln. 8,6 6,4 11,1 16,3 19,3 22,2
Net borrowings, USD bln.
2,3 10,0 30,7 47,0 53,8 52,8
М ]ф 20
Privatization Revenues of the Federal Budget (bln. rub.)
6,7 2,0 7,0
298,0
276,1
309,4
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD bln. 0,27 0,07 0,23 9,8 9,0 10,0
М ]ф 21
778,5 млрд. руб.
2 094,7млрд. руб.
3 280,8млрд. руб.
4 256,3млрд. руб.
4 740,7млрд. руб.
1 064,9млрд. руб. 1 301,2
млрд. руб.1 499,8
млрд. руб.
875,4 млрд. руб.
3 166,3 млрд. руб.
2 201,4млрд. руб.
1 138,4млрд. руб.
1 796,8млрд. руб.
2 327,9млрд. руб.
2 884,5млрд. руб.
1 101,7млрд. руб.
1 370,5млрд. руб. 1 192,0
млрд. руб.
Russian Federation Volume of Debt
% o
f G
DP
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
External debt Internal debt
23,2%
14,2%
9,0%
7,2%6,5%
8,3%
11,0%
13,6%
16,0%
18,0%
778,5 bln.rub.
3 166,3 bln.rub.
875,4 bln.rub.
2 201,4 bln.rub.
1 064,9 bln.rub.
1 370,5 bln.rub.
1 301,2 bln.rub.
1 101,7 bln.rub.
1 499,8 bln.rub.
1 192,2 bln.rub.
2 094,7 bln.rub.
1 138,4 bln.rub.
3 499,4* bln.rub.
1 485,0* bln.rub.
5 148,4* bln.rub.
1 696,3* bln.rub.
6 976,4* bln.rub.
2 000,4* bln.rub.
8 826,3* bln.rub.
2 344,1* bln.rub.
* Forecast as of Oct. 6, 2010
М ]ф
Budget Allocations on Innovative Development Programs (bln. rub.)
22
2010 2011 2012 2013
Federal Special Vehicle on Innovations
454,4 604,3 630,4 668,3USD bln.
15,0 19,8 20,5 21,6
in % compared to the previous period 133,0 104,3 106,0
plus:
Innovation Center of Skolkovo 15,0 22,0 17,1
USD bln. 0,5 0,7 0,6
Projects of the President’s Special Commission on Modernization and Technological Development of the Russian Federation
5,0 10,0 10,0 6,3
USD bln. 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,2
М ]ф
Thank you for your attention!