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AUSTRALIAN ALMANAC

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A Multi-Parameter Approach to Earthquake ForecastingPart 1 of 2

Vol.2 No 12

Prof. Sergey Pulinets, a researcher of earthquake precursors at the Fyodorov Institute of Applied Geophysicsand the Moscow Center for Ionosphere Monitoring addressed the European Geosciences Conference in Vienna,

which took place April 3-8, 2011. Dr. Pulinets was interviewed during the conference by Daniel Grasenack-Tenteof the Civil Rights Solidarity Movement (BSo), the German political party of the LaRouche movement. A videoof the interview is available at www.larouchepac.com/node/17944.

Daniel Grasenack-Tente: Professor Pulinets,thank you very much for joining us here. Were atthe European Geosciences General Assembly for2011, and just yesterday there were a number ofpresentations on the question of the different kindsof precursors in different domains of the electro-magnetic spectrum, which we can use to hopefully,at some point, have a real forecasting capability forearthquakes. Lets discuss what youve been look-ing at. What is the significance of electromagneticprecursors to earthquakes in your work?

Pulinets: Okay, I prefer to talk not only on theelectromagnetic precursors, but earthquake prepa-ration is a complex physical chemical process, hav-ing been started from the Earths crust, up to theatmosphere and ionosphere. And they have differentkinds of manifestations. Within the periodwe aretalking now about short term predictionso it is

something like a few weeks, up to a few days, andhours, before the seismic shock. And because it isa process which generally connects many factors,we try to find an approach which gives us the op-portunity to explain what is happening, why we seeso many different variations or anomalies during thispreparation period.

The first reason is very natural. When you havea release of energy, which is equivalent to severalthousand nuclear bombs, it is impossible to storethis underground, and in one moment to release

it. The Earth is a living matter, and there are someprocessesstoring of the stress, and this stress hasto manifest itself in some parameters.

So, the most natural is that when you have theformation of cracks inside the crust, you changethe system of the gas migration inside the Earthscrust. The main components of this are CO2, he-lium, hydrogen, and radon, which is a radioactivegas, which is a product of the decay of uranium. Itis present everywhere. For sanitary purposes, when

you build your house, you monitor for radon to besafe in your house. It is a heavy, odorless gas. But itwas detected many, many years ago, that its releaseincreases before an earthquake, because this gasmigration carries this radon and water coming up

to the Earths surface.Probably you have seen the video from Japan

showing water going up during and before theearthquake. So, water also carries radon with it.

And now starts the very interesting processwhich is characteristic for many, many natural events.For example, you know that now the variations ofthe cosmic rays associated with the formation ofthe cloud cover over our planetwhy? Because thecosmic rays produce ionization of water. The ionsbecome the centers of condensation of the watervapor. Water vapor condenses around the ions andyou obtain the nucleation which is the center ofcondensation for the formation of clouds.

The same is happening with the coming of radio-

active matter of radon, on the ground surface, closeto the ground surface, because radon is very heavy.It also produces ionization of air. Ions become thecenters of condensation, and form large clustersof these ions, and envelopes of many, many watermolecules.

Hydration of IonsGrasenack-Tente:You mentioned in your pre-

sentation the ionization process, and the hydrationof the ions.

Pulinets: Hydration, yes. Because it is not purecondensation, because people who know physicsquite well say that there should be saturation vaporto have condensation. But hydration does not need

Prof. Sergey Pulinets (right), an expert on earthquake percursors,was interviewed by the BSos Daniel Grasenack-Tente, at theEuropean Geosciences Union in Vienna.


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A Multi-Parameter Approach to Earthquake Forecasting

saturation. In any level of humidity, relative humidityof air, you will have hydration of the ions. So, with30% of humidity, still you will have hydration of ions.

And when the molecules of water become at-tached to the ion, they release their free energy

that they had when they were in the air, which isnamed latent heat. And this latent heat is a sourceof the thermal energy which is registered just overactive tectonic faults. It can be monitored by thesatellites. They show very nicely the configurationof the active tectonic faults during the period ofpreparation of the earthquakes.

Grasenack-Tente:What period are we talkingabout?

Pulinets: We are talking about a few weeks

before the earthquake. We have activation of thetectonic plate where the epicenter is situated. So,we can see the heating of the borders between thetectonic plates, and active tectonic faults, which isa smaller structure.

So, starting from the ground surface, we see thethermal anomalies along the active tectonic faults,which manifest that we have release of radon alongthe tectonic faults. And the geophysical perpectiveshows that we have, at the peaks, a maximum ofradon concentration over tectonic faults. They aresources of the radon coming from the ground.

So the first level is the ground surface. Then, thisheat starts to accumulate, and because you have atemperature difference between the fault and thearea outside the fault, it starts mixing, due to thetemperature difference. You have the horizontal

motion and convection motion, because the heatedair tries to go up, and it is transformed into somesmall spirals. Chirality is formed, and these smallchiral structures tend to merge. In chaos theory, itsnamed reverse cascade instability. They merge and

form a large thermal spot, which could be registeredin the upper layers of the atmosphere.Simultaneously, this transformation of the latent

heat also could be registered by satellites. There aresome products in some NASA sites, which give youdirectly the latent heat fluxes over a special region,and we were able to detect these latent heat fluxesbefore many, many earthquakes.

For example, before the [Dec. 26, 2004] Suma-tra earthquake, the total thermal energy releasedwas one order of magnitude was higher than the

mechanical energy released during the earthquakeitself. So you can imagine what huge power is inside,in such a simple thing as water vapor. People ask,what is the source? It is the Sun. The Sun preparesthis water vapor because we have constant evapo-ration of humidity from the rivers, from lakes, fromsurf, and all the time we have this water vapor whichcontains this latent heat, and during condensation itis released. So, the source of this energy is the Sun.

But now we come into the electromagnetic.

Grasenack-Tente: Okay, yes.Pulinets: So these thermal anomalies could be

registered not only in the form of heat, that we mea-sure by temperature, but as radiative heatinfraredradiation, which is in the electromagnetic spectrum,with wavelengths from 8 to 12 microns. This is a

Before the Dec. 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the total thermal energy

released was one order of magnitude higher than the mechanical energyreleased during the earthquake itself, Pulinets explained. So you canimagine what a huge power is inside, in such a simple thing as water

vapor. People ask, what is the source? It is the Sun. Shown below: avillage near the coast destroyed by the tsunami; inset: graphicshowing the power of the 9.4 quake in Sumatra.


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window which is transparent for the clouds. Andit is possible to measure, even through the clouds.And Dr. [Dimitar] Ouzounov [of NASA/GoddardSpace Flight Centers Earth Observing System] ismeasuring these infrared emissions at the top of

the atmosphere. It is something like from 8 to 12kilometers.

Grasenack-Tente: Under the ionosphere?Pulinets:No, the ionosphere is much higher, its

100 kilometers. This is 10 to 12 kilometers altitude.And very precise and special techniques wereelaborated, using previous measurementsfor ex-ample, NOAA [National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration], 20 years ago. We have a very goodbackground, which allows us to estimate that in this

place

Precursor AnomaliesGrasenack-Tente: Sorry, so these precursors,

these phenomena, you mean 20 yearsPulinets: No, for 20 years we have had mea-

surements to calculate the anomaly against thisbackground. We started our study more or less 10years ago. And we are able to see the dynamics ofthe development of these heat anomalies on the topof the atmosphere, before the earthquake. Theseanomalies usually appear a few days before theearthquake. And there are specific features, that theyare sitting over the area of the earthquake prepa-ration. They can move a little bit, exactly along thetectonic plates border, or along the active tectonicfault, but are very close to the future epicenter. Sothis is a first, a very reliable, signature of the ap-proaching earthquake. And now we have very goodstatistics for this. For all recent major earthquakes,we have the data showing the appearance of this

OLR anomaly, which is outgoing longwave radiation.Without any exclusion, we see it over the ocean,

inland, near the shore, not dependent on where theepicenter is. It is an advantage in comparison withany other techniques for precursors, because manyof these precursors would be detected only inland.But because we deal with the gas, which could bereleased from water as well, we see anomalies overthe water. You can see here, here, here [points tochart on wall], anomalies sitting over the water.

Grasenack-Tente: What instrumentations doyou use to measure this?

Pulinets: It is infrared sensors, which are in-stalled on the majority of remote-sensing satellites.

Grasenack-Tente: They all have them?Pulinets: Like NOAA satellites, Aqua, Terra, it

is modest device, a VHRR in NOAAs satellite, andsimilar devicesfor example, on board the RussianMeteor satellite we have a similar device. European

satellites, every remote-sensing satellite now has aninfrared sensor, and we need the frequency band, orwavelength band, between 8 and 12 microns.

Now, we are going to the upper layers, the iono-sphere. The ionosphere is a part of our atmosphere,but partly ionized. Its ionization comes mainly fromultraviolet radiation, emitted by our Sun. Some partis ionized by X-rays, and energetic particles, but themain source of the ionization is ultraviolet radiation.

So, because we have radiation only during thedaytime, we have increase of ionization during

daytime, and decrease during nighttime, and thevariations of electron concentration look like asinusoidas you can see in daily variations. And ithas been studied for many, many years. We have verygood models, which explain the climatology of theionospheric behavior. Also, we know very well thebehavior in this sphere during active solar events,like solar flares, geomagnetic storms; for any point,we have the regional models, which can explain whatwill be the behavior of the ionosphere during themagnetic storms.

So, we know the behavior of the ionosphereduring the quiet time condition, and during themagnetic storm condition. And starting from this,we are looking at some anomalies which are associ-ated with the earthquake, how these anomalies ingeneral can appear in the ionosphere.

Grasenack-Tente: Because there could bedifferent sources for

Pulinets: No, the source is the same. We live

in an electrical environment. We never think aboutthis, but when youre standing here, it is a verticalelectric field which has a gradient of 100 to 150

Professor Pulinets indicates anomalies in precursor techniques.


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volts per meter. So, between the top of your headand your legs, you have a potential difference of 220volts, like a power source.

The problem is, that the conductivity of air isvery low. So, the current which we have inside the

atmosphere is 1012 amperes per square meter.What is the source of this potential difference?We have a potential difference between the groundand the ionosphere. This potential difference is cre-ated by thunderstorm activity. All over the worldwe have global thunderstorm activityin Africa, inAmericamainly thunderstorm activity is over theland. But this is not so important. The thunderstormdischarges provide the positive potential of theionosphere in relation to the Earth.

And we have the potential difference between

the ground and the ionosphere, which is somethinglike 250, up to 500 kilovolts. And this potential dif-ference is dropped into this bulk of atmosphere,from the ground surface, up to more or less 60kilometers, for this global electric circuit. Usually,they take the lower border of the ionosphere, near60 kilometers. But the most potential drop we haveis in the so-called boundary layer of the atmosphere.The boundary layer is the layer where we haveturbulent motion of the air. In the upper layers, wehave no such turbulent motion; it is a continuousgradient, without the mixing that we have in theground source.

And so, you can imagineyou have a potentialdifference. You have a resistor,which is our atmosphere.

And if you change the valueof this resistance, it means youchange the conductivity of thislayer, near-ground layer, and thisconductivity is changed by the ap-

pearance of these ions producedby radon. First, you will observethe increase of conductivity, andthen, when these ions grow, andbecome large clusters which arenot moving, and cannot carrythe electrical current, you willhave the drop of conductivity.Like, for example, in sandstorms,when you have a lot of sand anddirt. For example, in dirty cities,

the electric field is larger than inthe open field, because due to thepresence of dust and aerosols,the conductivity drops.

Its the same thing when you have the formationof these large clusters, which we spoke of before, adrop ofconductivity leads to a change of the iono-spheric potential relative to the Earth.

So the ionosphere feels the earthquakes through

the global electric circuit, through the change ofconductivity of the atmosphere. But the ionosphereis a highly conductive medium. It tries to maintainits equipotentiality. If you have a good conductor, allthe parts of this conductor have the same electricalpotential. If something changes, it tries to redistrib-ute the electron concentration and ions to maintainits equipotential.

What does it mean to redistribute? There is theappearance of the drift or electric currents withinthe ionosphere, and you have a formation of irregu-

larity over the area where you have the anomaly ofconductivity.

Grasenack-Tente:And thats what youve beentalking about with the total electron content.

Pulinets: Yes. And the parameters of the iono-sphere could be measured by a multitude of tech-niques. It is a ground-based vertical sounding, calledionsondes. We can put the same ionsondes on thesatellite, and it will be topside ionospheric sound-ing. You can measure the total electron contentbetween the satellite and the ground. You can makeionospheric tomography from the low-orbitingsatellites.

So there are a lot of tech-niques; all of them were tested,and all of them show the anoma-lies in the ionosphere.

I have a book published bySpringer, Ionospheric Precursors ofthe Earthquake.You can find there

everything explained, and what ishappening. But I also can say, thatfrom the majority of earthquakes,we see ionospheric anomalieswhich are very close to the ther-mal anomalies in their position,and they are also coherent intime. But we see propagation ofthese anomalies from the groundsurface up to the ionosphere, sousually the ionospheric anoma-

lies appear one day later, or thesame day as the thermal one.

To be continued...

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