17 471 18_19931999
TRANSCRIPT
National Security Policy in the Clinton Administration
1993-1999
17.471 American National Security 2
Setting
Soviet Union dissolvedz Central organizing threat for five decades
is gonez Russia is weak politically & economically
z Strong nuclear powerz “loose nukes” threat
z Regional destabilization & breakup
17.471 American National Security 3
Setting“World Order” Structure Unclearz Polarity (constellation of great powers)
z Bipolar (1945-1972)z Multipolar (1972-1991)z Unipolar (1992-?)z How might system polarity affect national security
policy?z Democracy & Capitalism as norm
z End of competition of social systemsz “democratic peace” theory [major war impossible]
z Nuclear Weapons as war deterrentsz Nuclear weapons make major war impossible
17.471 American National Security 4
Setting
US & European publics turn to domestic focusz Bush foreign policy triumphs fail to win
electoratez Collapse of WP/E. European communismz Collapse of USSRz Gulf War
z Clinton Elected (it’s the economy, stupid!)
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Policy Debates
Academics, policy wonks, insiders, politicians4 Optionsz Isolationismz Liberal Internationalism (Carter)z Primacy (Realist 1)z Selective Engagement (Realist 2)
z A strategy of no strategy or visionz Watch & see
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Clinton National Security Orientation
US must play a role in the world commensurate with its powerEconomic growth is essentialz tied to global economic growth
Cold-War “orphan” international problems need attentionz environmentz population growthz political repression
International institutions should be engaged in pursuit of US goalsz UNz World Bank
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Implementation: Intervention I
Humanitarian Intervention & Nation Building for Regional Stability1992-1995 Somaliaz change from humanitarian mission to nation building Î US
Deathsz UN pulls out in 1995 Î Somalia syndrome
1994 Rwandaz 1 million deathsz no UN intervention, Somalia syndrome
Haitiz 1990-1994: turmoil following coup against Aristide Î thousands
of refugees at sea Î US problemz 1994 US sends 20,000 troops to end turmoilz US pulls out in 1999
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Implementation: Intervention II
Collective Security – NATOwar in Europe is dangerous to US national security interests Yugoslaviaz Croatia & Slovenia (1991)z Bosniaz Dayton Peace Accords (1995)z Kosovo
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Yugoslavia
Kosovo
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TerrorismWTC I 1993 [truck bomb]z 6 killedz >1000 injured
Khobar Towers 1997 [truck bomb]z 19 servicemen killed, 500 Americans & Saudis injured
Embassies 1998 [truck bombs]z Tanzania
z 11 deadz Kenya
z 213z 4000 wounded
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Clinton Response to Terror Attacks
Cruise-missile strikes on Afghanistan & Sudanz Was this adequate?z Why nothing more forceful?
z Somalia & Haiti-syndromez “Monica” affair
What was the message to Al Quaeda?
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Africa
back
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Nuclear Proliferation
Russia & “Loose Nukes”North Korea 1993-1994