16th november ,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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Daily Global Rice e-Newsletter October 05,2015 Vol 5 ,Issue XV

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November 16,2015 Vol 5,Issue XI

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USDA Post Forecasts Egypt's MY 2015-16

Rice Exports to Increase Sharply on

Temporary Resumption of Exports

Nov 13, 2015

USDA Post forecasts Egypt's MY 2015-16 (May - April) rice exports at around 400,000 tons, up

about 60% from an estimated 250,000 tons in MY 2014-15, and unchanged from USDA's

official estimates. The increase is due to the government's resumption of milled rice exports for

six months effective October 4, 2015.

However, the government requires exporters to pay an export fee of $255.43 per ton in foreign

currency that is exchangeable through a bank operating in Egypt. The Post reports that the

announcement resulted in an increase of rice price to around $270 per ton compared to around

$200 per ton before the announcement. The government's decision has meanwhile increased the

activity of the rice millers in the country, which had ceased as farmers withheld their stocks due

to lower prices.

The Post expects the bulk of the Egyptian rice exports to materialize between December 2015 to

March 2016 as market prices of Egyptian medium grain "sticky" rice are likely to be more

competitive in the international market.



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USDA Post estimates Egypt's MY 2015-16 paddy production at around 5.797 million tons, down

from an estimated 6.565 million tons in MY 2014-15 and unchanged from USDA's official

estimates. The decline is due to higher-than-normal temperatures during August, which led to a

reduction in grain weight.

EFSA Sets New Toxicological Safety

Thresholds for Use of Glyphosate in EU

Member States

Nov 13, 2015

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the EU member states have finalized the

norms for re-assessment of glyphosate, a chemical that is used widely in pesticides, according to

a news release on the EFSA website.

Following extensive assessment of new studies and data, the EFSA and the EU member states

have come up with a report stating that glyphosate does not pose a carcinogenic threat to

humans. They noted in the report that glyphosate may not be classified as carcinogenic under the

EU regulation for classification, labelling and packaging of chemical substances. The review

group reportedly reached the conclusion after considering several evidences, including a report

by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which classified glyphosate as

probably carcinogenic to humans.

The group proposed an acute reference dose (ARfD) for glyphosate of 0.5 milligrams per

kilogram (mg/kg) of body weight. It also proposed other toxicological safety thresholds to guide

risk assessors. It set the acceptable operator exposure level (AOEL) at 0.1 mg/kg body weight

per day and the acceptable daily intake (ADI) for consumers at 0.5 mg/kg body weight per

day.The report and the new limits can now be used by the EC to decide whether or not to retain

glyphosate on the EU’s list of approved active substances. It can be used by the EU member

states to allow its use in pesticides.

“This has been an exhaustive process – a full assessment that has taken into account a wealth of

new studies and data. By introducing an acute reference dose we are further tightening the way

potential risks from glyphosate will be assessed in the future. Regarding carcinogenicity, it is

unlikely that this substance is carcinogenic,” said the Head of EFSA's Pesticides Unit."EFSA

will use the new toxicological values during its review of the maximum residue levels for

glyphosate in food, which will be carried out in cooperation with Member States in 2016," he

added.



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Bangladesh to Increase Import Duty on Rice

Shortly, Says Food Minister

Nov 13, 2015

The government of Bangladesh is planning to increase the import duty on rice imports from the

current 10% to curb surging imports, especially from India, local sources, quoted the Food

Minister.Following a meeting of the Food Planning and Monitoring Committee, the Minister told

local sources that new rate would be announced in a couple of days.

"Indian rice has already arrived in the market because of a delay in raising the duty," he was

quoted. He noted that farmers would be harmed if duty is not increased. Restriction of imports is

said to be necessary to protect local prices during the Aman harvest, which will begin

shortly.The Bangladesh government imposed a duty of 10% on rice imports in May 2015 after

rice imports by private traders surged significantly due to low global prices. Bangladesh traders

imported over 1.4 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 (July - June) compared to only 374,560

tons imported in the whole year of 2013-14.

USDA estimates Bangladesh’s MY 2015-16 (July 2015 – June 2016) milled rice production at

around 34.6 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 34.5 million tons in MY 2014-15. It

estimates Bangladesh to import around 1.2 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 and about

600,000 tons in MY 2015-16.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Dip

after USDA Reports Dismal Export Sales

Nov 14, 2015

The U.S. cash market was weaker today with limited trading occurring after the USDA reported

dismal export sales for the week.Cumulative net export sales for the week that ended on

November 5 totaled 35,700 tons, a decrease of 56% from the previous week and 55% lower than

the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for the following destinations: 15,700 tons to

Japan, 11,000 tons to Taiwan, 3,000 tons to New Guinea, 2,100 tons to El Salvador, and 2,100

tons to Canada, while a reduction of 500 tons was reported for Yemen.

U.S. rice exporters shipped 34,200 tons, a decrease of 25% from the previous week and 47%

lower than the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the following destinations:

16,100 tons to Japan, 4,200 tons to El Salvador, 4,000 tons to Mexico, 3,500 tons to Canada, and

3,000 tons to New Guinea.



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Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap -

Chicago Rough Rice Futures Slide as

Commodities Come Under Pressure

Nov 14, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 21.5 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) lower at

$12.145 per cwt (about $268 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower as well; Soybeans

closed about 0.9% lower at $8.5525 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.5% lower at $4.9775 per

bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.1% lower at $3.6550 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded more than 1% lower Friday, pressured by a continued decline in oil prices and

soft reports on the health of the consumer. The major averages are down more than 3% for the

week so far, on pace to break a 6-week win streak. October retail sales showed an increase of

0.1%, below expectations of a 0.3% rise. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building

materials and food services rose 0.2% after an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September. In

another sign of little inflation, the producer price index for October fell 0.4%, after falling 0.5%

the previous month.

The preliminary read on November consumer sentiment hit 93.1, topping expectations. In

afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 199 points, or 1.14%, to 17,250. The

S&P 500 declined 22 points, or 1.11%, to 2,023, with consumer discretionary leading nine

sectors lower and materials the only advancer. The Nasdaq composite fell 71 points, or 1.4%, to

4,934. Gold is seen trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.4% lower, and

the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher about 3:00pm Chicago time.Thursday, there

were 656 contracts traded, down from 680 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the

number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by 75 contracts to 12,443.

Global Rice Quotes

November 13th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 365-375 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 370-380 ↔

India 5% broken 345-355 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 315-325 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 405-415 ↔



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Cambodia 5% broken 415-425 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 490-510 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 345-355 ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 355-365 ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 290-300 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 400-410 ↔

India 25% broken 325-335 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 355-365 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 590-610 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 785-795 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 460-470 ↓

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔



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Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 325-335 ↔

Vietnam 100% broken 335-345 ↑

Pakistan 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 330-340 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza Weekly: Demand from Indonesia,

Philippines Continues to Support Global Rice

Export Quotes

Nov 14, 2015

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,

ended the week at $394 per ton, up $1 per ton from a week ago and a month ago and down $57

per ton from a year ago.

Global rice export quotes increased or remained stable during the week due to increasing

demand. However, domestic rice prices in most of the countries declined due to increasing

supplies from ongoing harvests.

Thailand



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Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week

ago, down about $5 per ton from and month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.

The government is advising rice farmers in the Central provinces to grow taro instead of rice this

season due to water shortages in the Chao Phraya River basin.

In an open letter posted on Facebook, former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra defended

herself to junta leader Prayath Chan-ocha. Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister has reiterated that

the rice pledging case against Shinawatra is receiving fair treatment from the government and is

being dealt with in compliance with the law.

The Thai Rice Exporters Association is hopeful that the country will export 9.5-10 million tons

of rice in 2016 due to several pending purchase orders under government-to-government

contracts with the Philippines and China.

Vietnam

Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up

about $20 per ton from a month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.

Rice exports from Vietnam increased sharply in October following three sluggish months. The

increase is attributed to increased demand from the Philippines and Indonesia. Despite the



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increase, total rice exports are still behind last year’s numbers, according to the Vietnam Food

Association.

The large-scale field model introduced by the government of Vietnam under the Decision No

62/2013 to encourage large-scale fields is beginning to show effective results, especially in rice

production, says the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Cambodia

Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $420 per ton, unchanged from a week and a

month ago, and down about $40 per ton from a year ago.

Paddy yields in Cambodia from the ongoing wet-season rice crop are expected to be slightly

below last year due to drought but the decline is not likely to impact exports.

India

India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $350 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down


In an effort to evade Iran’s restrictive import permits on India’s basmati rice, Indian rice is being

shipped through the United Arab Emirates and then on to Iran.

The government of Bangladesh plans to procure 200,000 tons of 2015 Aman (July-December)

rice from millers between December 15 and March 15. Meanwhile, the government is planning

to increase the import duty on rice imports from the current 10% to curb surging imports,

especially from India, according to the Food Minister.

Pakistan

Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $320 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up


Central & South America

Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week and a

month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.

The USDA Post forecasts Brazil’s MY 2015-16 (April 2016-March 2017) rice production to

decline about 10% y/y to around 8 million tons. The decline is attributed to incessant rains in

Rio Grande do Sul with is delaying planting operations and may lower yields.

Brazil’s rice stocks stood at around 121,038 tons in October, down about 3% from the previous

month and down about 76% from October 2014.



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In the first nine months of 2015, Brazil exported about 852,242 tons of rice. In September,

Brazil exported about 133,130 tons of rice, an increase of about 13% from August.

The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied

Economics (CEPEA) reached around 40.98 real per 50 kilograms as of November 10, 2015,

slightly up from around 40.8 real per 50 kilograms recorded on November 2, 2015. In terms of

USD per ton, the index reached around $218.05 per ton on November 10, 2015, slightly up from

around $216.5 per ton recorded on November 2, 2015. Month-on-month, the index has increased

about 2% from about 40.31 real per 50 kilograms. In terms of USD, the index increased about

1.5% during the month.

Argentina and Uruguay rice ended the week shown around $535 per ton, unchanged from a

week prior, down $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.

The USDA Post reports that Argentina’s local rice sector is facing problems due to slow export

sales and high domestic costs, making it difficult to compete internationally. However,

Argentina has exported about 432,568 tons of rice in the first six months of 2015, an increase of

about 21% from the same period in 2014.

U.S.

U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month

ago and up about $45 per ton from a year ago.

Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery fell in the first half of the week, opening at the

weekly high of $12.400 per cwt (about $273 per ton) before dropping to a weekly low of

$11.850 per cwt (about $261 per ton) midweek. Futures recovered some later in the week to

close at $12.145 per cwt (about $268 per ton) on Friday.

The U.S. cash market was weaker early in the week as bids and offers dropped with the futures

market and the USDA’s WASDE report showed an increase in global ending stocks. It firmed

up some later in the week, in tandem with the rally in the futures market, but most farmers

remained on the sidelines waiting for better prices.

In its November 2015 World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates reports, the USDA

estimates the U.S. all rice supplies at around 12.01 million tons, up from last month’s forecast of

11.88 million tons but down from 2014-15’s numbers due to expected higher production. The

USDA estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice production at around 8.65 million tons, and it estimates

U.S. all rice exports at around 4.45 million tons.

Other Markets

Myanmar 5% rice is today shown at around $410 per ton, unchanged from a week ago and

down about $5 per ton from a month ago. Myanmar’s rice exports declined sharply in the first

six months of FY 2015-16 (April-March) due to a temporary ban imposed on exports in efforts to

safeguard prices and stocks following devastating floods in August this year.



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The government of Nigeria is striving to attain self-sufficiency in rice production in the next two

years.

South Korea’s government rice stocks at the end of October have reached around 1.36 million

tons, an increase of about 58% from the same time last year. The increase is attributed to higher

production and lower consumption. The nation’s rice production has reached a six-year high in

2015 due to increase in yields, according to Statistics Korea.The European Union’s rice imports

from Least Developed Countries of Asia under the Everything But Arms Agreement have

reached about 42,916 tons in the first two months of the crop year 2015-16 (September-August),

down about 7% from the same period last year.

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the EU member states have finalized the

norms for re-assessment of glyphosate, a chemical that is used widely in pesticides.

The Malaysian Trade Minister has said Malaysia may not ratify the final Trans-Pacific

Partnership Agreement due to the TPP obligations on geographical indications.

Italian paddy rice prices, which were quite low in the last week of September and first week of

October, started increasing in the second week of October and are continuing the pace.

USDA Post forecasts Egypt's MY 2015-16 (May - April) rice exports at around 400,000 tons, up

about 60% from an estimated 250,000 tons in MY 2014-15 due to the government's resumption

of milled rice exports for six months effective October 4, 2015.

USDA Post forecasts China to import around 4.7 million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (July -

June), up about 9% from an estimated 4.315 million tons imported in MY 2014-15 due to

prevailing high domestic rice prices.

The Philippines 2015 third quarter paddy production is recorded at around 2.55 million tons,

down about 15.7% from around 3.027 million tons produced during the same period in 2014,

according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The decline is attributed to extending

drought conditions brought about by the El Nino weather phenomenon.

Guyana has exported around 437,448 tons of rice in the first ten months (January - October) of

2015, up about 6% from around 412,228 tons exported during the same period last year,

according to the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB).

Thailand, Vietnam Rice Sellers Alter Some of

Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Export

Quotes Remain Unchanged

Nov 13, 2015



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Thailand rice sellers have lowered their quotes for fragrant A1 Super rice variety by $5 per ton to

around $340 - $350 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 100% broken

rice variety by about $5 per ton to around $335 - $345 per ton. They lowered their quotes for

jasmine rice by about $10 per ton to around $460 - $470 per ton. India rice sellers are out due to

a public holiday. Other rice quotes remain unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton about $15 per ton discount on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $345

- $355 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $315 - $325 per

ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$325 - $335 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $290 -

$300 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $10 per ton

discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $285 - $295 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan

broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.

Philippines 2015 3Q Paddy Rice Production

Declines 15.7%y/y Due to El Nino, Says PSA

Nov 13, 2015

The Philippines 2015 third quarter paddy production is recorded at around 2.55 million tons,

down about 15.7% from around 3.027 million tons produced during the same period in 2014,

according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The decline is attributed to extending

drought conditions brought about by the El Nino weather phenomenon.Paddy production in the



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first none months of 2015 has reached around 10.875 million tons, down about 4.7% from

around 11.407 million tons produced during the same period last year.

The PSA data shows that the average farm gate paddy prices have declined to around 17.75 peso

per kilogram (around $377 per ton) in the July-September quarter, down about 13.4% from

around 20.51 peso per kilogram (around $435 per ton) during the same period last year.The

average farm gate paddy prices have declined to around 17.5 peso per kilogram (around $371 per

ton) in the January-September period, down about 13.4% from around 20.21 peso per kilogram

(around $429 per ton) during the same period last year.

Guyana Exports 437,448 Tons of Rice in First

Ten Months of 2015; Up 6% from Previous

Year

Nov 13, 2015

Guyana has exported around 437,448 tons of rice in the first ten months (January - October) of

2015, up about 6% from around 412,228 tons exported during the same period last year, local

sources quoted data from the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB).However, earnings

from exports are understood to have fallen during the ten-month period due to a significant fall in

world rice prices. Also, loss of Venezuela market has affected the country's export prices,

according to the General Manager of the GRDB. “In 2014 almost 30 per cent of the market that

we exported to was Venezuela, for which the country and the farmers were receiving higher than

above world market prices for the rice and paddy they exported there.”

This year, exporters have received only market prices, he added. The official added that in 2014,

exporters received about $480 per ton of paddy and about $780 for milled rice from Venezuela.

However, this year, prices of white rice have fallen to around $390 - $398 per ton.

Though Venezuela has decided not to renew the PetroCaribe (Oil for Rice) deal with Guyana, the

government of Guyana has been successful in increasing rice exports to Caricom countries

(Antigua, Barbados and Belize), and to the European Union (EU) in 2015."With an aggressive

marketing strategy spearheaded by the GRDB and the Private Sector, and with support from the

Ministry of Agriculture, the country is set to soon secure many new markets for the country’s

rice and paddy," the GRDB official noted. He also noted that they GRDB is also focussing on

markets where best prices are obtained.Guyana exported about 501,208 tons of rice in 2014, up

about 27% from around 394,988 tons exported in 2013, according to the GRDB.

16th november ,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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