16 07 for web site

Slides Produced by Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties

www.RichmondHousingToday.com

The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market

Lacy WilliamsJoyner Fine Properties

July 2016

11


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Background

• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market.

• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and other sources. For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.

• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in July 2016 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.

22

http://www.realtor.org/



National Economic Data

33


www.RichmondHousingToday.com U.S. PopulationSource: National Association of Realtors 4/16


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Jobs, Jobs, Jobs(

In thousands 8 million lost … 14 million gained)

Source: National Association of Realtors 4/16



State Level Employment Change

66




Where Are People Moving To?

77

Highest InBound States:1. Oregon2. South Carolina3. Vermont4. Idaho5. North Carolina6. Florida7. Nevada8. District of Columbia9. Texas10.WashingtonHighest Outbound States11.New Jersey12.New York13.Illinois14.Connecticut15.Ohio16.Kansas17.Massachusetts18.West Virginia19.Mississippi20.Maryland


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Employment Rate

88

Source: Bureau Of Labor Statistics 7/16


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Gross Domestic Product

99

Source: National Association of Homebuilders 7/16


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Virginia State Growth

1010

Source: National Association of Homebuilders 7/16



US Home Ownership Rate

1111




Federal Debt … Cumulative

Federal Debt in Millions



www.RichmondHousingToday.com Student Loan Debt…

$ Billions




Economic Impact of Every Home SoldState-by-State

Source: NAR

Source: Keeping Current Matters 10/15

Every home that is sold generates an economic impact which is the total of the impact on Gross Domestic product. A house sale generates income for moving companies, painters, carpenters, etc..



NationalNumber of Sales

1515



“With last month's gain, sales are now up 4.5% from May 2015 and are at their highest annual pace since February 2007.”

- Lawrence Yun NAR’s Chief Economist

Source: Keeping Current Matters July 16



Existing Home Sales – Moderate Recovery




Freddie Mac

Existing Home Sales in thousands




Y-O-Y by region

Existing Home Sales by Region

NAR 5/2016

West



www.RichmondHousingToday.com Very Cyclical Vacation Home Sales

(50% Decline and 100% increase)




NAR 7/2016

Change in Sales by Price Range




Inventory of Homes

2222



The Impact of Monthly Housing Inventory on Home Prices

LESS THAN 6 MONTHS

BETWEEN5-6 MONTHS

GREATER THAN7 MONTHS

SELLERS MARKETHomes prices will appreciate

NEUTRAL MARKETHomes prices

will only appreciate with

inflation

BUYERS MARKETHomes prices will depreciate


Inventory is the average mount of time it takes to sell a house. A balanced market is an inventory of about 6 months. If inventory is less than 6 months, A Sellers market occurs with appreciating prices. If inventory is above 7 months, A Buyers market occurs with depreciating prices. .



NAR 7/2016

Last 12 Months

Months Inventory of Homes For Sale



Multifamily Housing Starts: Adequate




Single-family Housing Starts: Grossly Inadequate

Thousand units



www.RichmondHousingToday.com New Home Sales in thousands

Freddie MacSource: Keeping Current Matters July 16



Forbes

6 6 6 6 6 6 67

89 9 9

109

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Median Years of Homeowner Tenure before Moving

Pent-Up Seller Demand




Rising Housing Wealth

$ billion




Prices

3030



FHFA

Year-Over-Year Price Change By State




CoreLogic

Forecasted Year-Over-Year Price Change




Home Price Expectation Survey 2016 2Q

Projected Mean Price Appreciation




$43,198

Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey

potential growth in family wealth over the next five years based solely on increased home equity

Home Price Expectation Survey 2016 2Q

Increase in Home Equity




35%

7%10%

January 2012 - Today

NAR 5/2016

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales




Percentage of Price Adjustments

Zillow

“Buyers looking for the most expensive homes will find somewhat softening prices, a relatively larger selection of homes to choose from and more limited competition” Zillow




Quicken Loans

Appraiser vs Homeowner Estimate of Value

Last 12 Months




Source: CoreLogic

Price & Time Since The Peak




The Interest Rate

3939



A Look Back at Mortgage Rates

Record Date Average 30 year fixed rate mortgage

Approximate Payment on a $200K Mortgage*

All-Time

LOW 11/21/12 3.31% $877

All Time

HIGH 10/9/81 18.63% $3,177

*Monthly mortgage payments are principal and interest only, based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage.

Freddie Mac




Freddie Mac 6/2016

Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rates




Quarter Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average

of All Four

2016 2Q 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8

2016 3Q 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9

2016 4Q 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0

2017 1Q 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1

Mortgage Rate Projections

6/2016Source: Keeping Current Matters 6/16



Greater Richmond Housing Market

4343

Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. Data for most graphs is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)



Number of Jobs in Richmond

4444

Source: National Association of Realtors

1000

s of

Ful

l Tim

e Jo

bs


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Richmond GDP

4545

Source: National Association of Homebuilders



Market Indicator #1:Sales are Up!!!

4646



2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

thru

6/30

02000400060008000

1000012000140001600018000

12737

15262155331645015074

12644

9482906985749051101771054511400

12841

6637

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Year

Year

No

of C

lose

d Sa

les

Single Family Sales by Year

47472015 Single Family sales were up 12.4% from 2014! And Single Family sales are up 51% since 2010. 2016 should be higher than 2015.

Source: CVRMLS Data 7/8/16



Number of Single Family House Sales by Year

4848

Sales in 2015 were higher than 2014 sales in almost all months. 2016 has been higher than 2015 in most months.

Source: CVRMLS data 7/8/16

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year

20122013201420152016


www.RichmondHousingToday.com First Quarter Sales

4949

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520160

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

35003161

2892

2088

148716121801192420572047

23602389

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales in First Quarter



www.RichmondHousingToday.com Second Quarter Sales

5050

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000 4567

3919

29102533

30132657

31353390 3407

38594248

Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales

Year

Num

ber

of C

lose

d Sa

les


Second quarter sales were up 10% over last year!



2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 thru 6/30

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

9141147

1383

17612035

1757

13821154 1093 1201

14201623 1594

1851

779

Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales by Year

Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond

5151

2015 sales were 16% higher than 2014 and were 69% higher than in 2010.




Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales

5252Source: CVRMLS 7/9/16

There has been large year-over-year increase in Single family sales at all but the highest price points.

Greater Richmond Year Over Year Single Family Sales By Price Range

7/14-6/15 7/15-6/16 Change0-$249,000 7016 9434 34.46%

$250,000-$499,000 4155 4824 16.10%

$500,000-$749,000 722 847 17.31%

$750,000- $999,999 176 178 1.14%$1,000,000+ 76 63 -17.11%

Greater Richmond Year Over Year Condo/Townhouse Sales By Price Range

7/14-6/15 7/15-6/16 Change0-249,000 1578 1738 10.14%$250,000-$499,000 599 708 18.20%$500,000+ 96 67 -30.21%

Condo sales have had large increases at the lower price points and have declined at the higher price points.



Who Are Richmond’s Largest Builders?

5353

2015 Top Richmond Home BuildersRank Company $ Volume Units

1 Ryan Homes$239,096,9

98 666

2 HHHunt Homes$90,897,00

0 287

3 Eagle Construction$88,984,05

8 201

4 Main Street Homes$75,212,45

7 179

5 StyleCraft Homes$53,434,00

0 139

6 Boone Homes$38,058,58

7 52

7 R-CI Builders$23,769,42

4 68

8Lifestyle Home Builders

$23,362,189 49

9Craftmaster Homes Inc

$21,845,907 66

10 Biringer Builders$20,322,60

9 30

10 Liberty Homes$17,500,00

0 83



Market Indicator #2:Inventory is Low!!!

5454



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSept Oct Nov Dec0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses (Months)

20102012201420152016

Month

Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond

5555

The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop for five years. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago. Inventory in July 2016 was 3 months.

Source: CVRMLS data



Single Family Inventory by Area

5656


The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a Seller’s market. We have a shortage of inventory in most areas. The red line represents a normal market.

Richmon

d

Henric

o

Cheste

rfield

Hanov

er

Gooch

land

Powha

tan

Great

er R

ichmon

d0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

2.2 2.6 3.2 3.35.2 4.6

3.0

Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory By Area 7/11/16

Area

Mon

ths

of I

nven

tory



5757

Townhouse/Condominium Inventory by Month

The inventory of townhouses and condominiums started dropping in the second half of 2011 and continued to drop through 2013. 2013, 2014 and 2015 inventory have been very similar. Inventory has stayed low for the past three years. Inventory in July 2016 is 2.5 months.

Source: CVRMLS data

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Inventory of Townhouse/Con-dominiums (Months)

201120122013201420152016



Single Family Inventory by Price Range


Price Range Inventory0-$249,000 2.1$250,000-$499,000 3.0$500,000-$749,000 5.6$750,000-$999,999 5.5$1,000,000+ 11.6

5858



Price Range Inventory0-$249,000 1.4$250,000-$499,000 3.5$500,000-$749,000 6.0$750,000-$999,999 8.7$1,000,000+ 18.1




Inventory by Price Range

5959

Condominium/Townhouse Inventory by Price Range

Price Range Inventory

0-249,000 1.8$250,000-$499,000 2.9$500,000+ 13.7

Condominium Inventory By Price Range

Price Range Inventory

0-249,000 2.5$250,000-$499,000 2.9$500,000+ 9.9

Source: CVRMLS data 1/14/16 Source: CVRMLS data 7/12/16


www.RichmondHousingToday.com New Construction

6060

Source: National Association of Homebuilders



Market Indicator #3:Prices are rising!!!

6161



6262

The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle. The average price can be influenced by a few very large sales. But there is clearly an upward trend since 2012.

Single Family Average Sales Price


Jan-06

Jul-0

6

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

$150,000$170,000$190,000$210,000$230,000$250,000$270,000$290,000$310,000$330,000

Greater Richmond Single Family Average Sales Price



Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16$80.00$90.00

$100.00$110.00$120.00$130.00$140.00$150.00

Greater Richmond Single Family Average Price Per Square Foot

Single Family Price Per Square Foot

6363

Price per square foot is a better indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward since 2012. There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months.




2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

th

ru

6/30

$60.00$70.00$80.00$90.00

$100.00$110.00$120.00$130.00$140.00$150.00

$92.

37

$99.

65

$107

.60 $1

23.3

8

$135

.82

$139

.64

$132

.43

$117

.82

$112

.24

$104

.98

$106

.16

$113

.02

$115

.19

$120

.55

$123

.59

Greater Richmond Single Family Prices

Single Family Price by Year

6464

Greater Richmond 2016 prices are 2.5% higher than 2014 prices and 17.7% higher than 2011 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are at 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph. 2016 prices are 11.5%% below 2007 prices.

Source: CVRMLS data



2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

thru

6/30

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

7.9%8.0%

14.7%10.1%

2.8%

-5.2%

-11.0%

-4.7%-6.5%

1.1%

6.5%1.9%

4.7%2.5%

Greater Richmond Single Family Percent Change in Price Per Sq Ft

Year to Year

Single Family Year over Year Price Change

6565

Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to increase in 2013 and 2014.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2015, prices were up 4.7% over 2014. 2016 is up 2.5% from 2015.



www.RichmondHousingToday.com Condo/Townhouse Prices

6666

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6A

ug-0

6D

ec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

l-07

Nov

-07

Feb-

08Ju

n-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Dec

-09

Apr

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-

11O

ct-1

1Fe

b-12

Jun-

12Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Dec

-13

Apr

-14

Aug

-14

Nov

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-

15O

ct-1

5Fe

b-16

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000

$270,000

Condominium/Townhouse Average Sales Price

Month

Ave

rage

Sal

es P

rice



Jan-

06M

ay-0

6Se

p-06

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08Ju

n-08

Oct

-08

Feb-

09Ju

n-09

Oct

-09

Feb-

10Ju

n-10

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-

11N

ov-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

l-12

Nov

-12

Mar

-13

Aug

-13

Dec

-13

Apr

-14

Aug

-14

Dec

-14

Apr

-15

Aug

-15

Jan-

16M

ay-1

6

$80.00$90.00

$100.00$110.00$120.00$130.00$140.00$150.00$160.00$170.00$180.00

Price Per Square Foot for Condominium/Townhouse Sales

Month

Pric

e Pe

r Sq

Ft

for

Clo

sed

Sale

sPrices for Condominiums

6767

Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices rising for the past four years.




2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

thru

6/30

$60.00$80.00

$100.00$120.00$140.00$160.00

$91$100

$113$133

$149$154$153$136$132

$119$121$130$139$137$139

Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Prices

Year

Pric

e Pe

r Sq

uare

Foo

tCondominium/Townhouse Prices

6868

Condominium prices in 1.1% higher than 2015. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Current prices are above 2005 prices as shown in the red line..

Source: CVRMLS data


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Prices for $1M+ Sales

6969

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (thru 7/18)

$0.00$50.00

$100.00$150.00$200.00$250.00$300.00 $255.11$241.57$234.72$216.69$212.22$230.76$208.88$224.94$235.46$230.04

Greater Richmond Single Family and Condo Price Per Square Foot for Sales of

$1M+

Year

Pric

e Pe

r Sq

uare

Foo

t



Single Family Buyers By Price Range

2016 First Half Greater Richmond Single Family

Sales By Price Range$500,000-$749,000 429$750,000- $999,999 84$1,000,000-$1,499,000 31$1,500,000-$1,999,999 4$2,000,000+ 2

7070



Richmond Real Estate Areas

7171

The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 36, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.



10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 660

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

9841

215

143

79 88

254257

152

89147

87

336

421

112

423

179169

Single Family Active Listings By Area (7/11/16)

Area

No

of A

ctiv

e Li

stin

gsActive Single Family Listings By Area

7272

The number of active listings by area as shown. Inventory varies by area with area 62 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.




10 22 30 34 40 44 52 60 64

All

Ric

hmon

d

$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000

$273

,246 $4

57,0

69$3

28,4

91$4

57,1

09$1

79,3

56$1

75,9

62 $351

,027

$314

,313

$172

,273

$131

,153

$248

,853

$79,

641

$198

,540

$237

,640

$217

,615

$298

,382

$349

,478

$284

,533

$269

,874

Average Sales Price By Area (7/15-6/16)

Area

Ave

rage

Sal

es P

rice

Single Family Greater Richmond Sales Price by Area

7373

The average single family house sale in greater Richmond is $269,874 shown by the red line.




Greater Richmond Single Family Price per Square Foot 3/14-2/15)

7474Source: CVRMLS 7/11/16

10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

All Rich

mond

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00$1

49.3

1$2

05.3

3$1

41.5

9$1

59.0

5$1

02.4

3$1

07.1

6$1

38.1

5$1

26.0

8$9

7.49

$84.

45$1

18.6

1$6

0.29 $9

8.14

$108

.12

$116

.00

$118

.45

$124

.64

$129

.75

$122

.81

Price per Square Foot By Area (4/15-3/16)

Area

Pric

e pe

r Sq

uare

Foo

t



10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

All Rich

mond

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1.6 1.52.2

5.2

2.5 2.22.9

3.9 3.6

2.5 2.7

4.03.3 3.2

2.22.9

3.5

4.6

3.0

Greater Richmond Single Family Inventory by Area

Area

Mon

ths

of I

nven

tory

Inventory of Single Family Houses

7575

As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it still has a higher inventory. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 3 months.




The Odds of Selling in Greater Richmond in 2015

7676

Source: CVRMLS 1/14/16

The odds of selling your house are determined by all properties that were listed during 2015 and all properties that were sold in 2015. The odds of selling a condo in 2015 were 75%

10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

All Rich

mond

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00% 71.9

9%77

.83%

75.4

7%61

.22%

64.7

9%78

.84%

70.7

5%65

.73%

69.6

6%73

.98%

73.1

6%62

.75%

68.0

1%66

.18%

78.6

5%68

.94%

67.4

3%62

.35%

69.7

1%

The Odds of Selling Your House in 2015

Area

The

Odd

s of

Sel

ling

Your

Hou

se



The Odds of Selling By Price Range

7777

Listed

7/15-6/16Sold

7/15-6/16Odds of Selling

0-$249,000 9224 7366 79.86%$250,000-$499,000 7239 4842 66.89%$500,000-$749,000 1519 848 55.83%$750,000- $999,999 339 178 52.51%$1,000,000+ 186 63 33.87%



Summary

7878


www.RichmondHousingToday.com NAR Economic Forecast2014 2015 2016

Forecast

2017Foreca

stGDP Growth

2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2%

Job Growth +3.0 million

+2.6 million

+1.6 million

+2.2 million

CPI Inflation

1.6% 0.3% 1.7% 3.0%

10-year Treasury

2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8%



www.RichmondHousingToday.com NAR Housing Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Foreca

st

2017 Foreca

stNew Home Sales

437,000 500,000 540,000 600,000

Existing Home Sales

4.9 million

5.3 million

5.4 million

5.5 million

Median Price Growth

+ 5.7% + 6.8% +4.5% 3.2%

30-year Rate

4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 4.6%Source: National Association of Realtors 4/16


www.RichmondHousingToday.com Summary

• Sales are up Single Family up 6.7%

• Inventory is low Single Family 3 mo.

• Prices are rising Single Family up 4.7%

• The interest rate is low and might rise

• The upper end market is weak!

8181



Questions?Lacy.Williams@joynerfineproper

ties.comLacy Williams

Joyner Fine Properties804-864-0316

8282