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Civil Effects Leader’s Training Simulation (CELTS)

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WeaponsOf MassDistraction

CELTS – Relevant and Ready• Constructive, stochastic simulation.

– 4th generation warfare– Uses Gravity Modeling and

Inertia to simulate population interactions

– Models national will– Audience

• Commander and staffs at brigade level and above

• Educational Institutions• Goal

– Produce plausible outcomes to promote discussion of how to best apply soft factors of war in the current operational environment

• Objectives:– Gain support of population for

US/Allied campaign objectives in AOR

• Scalable – can model all levels of war• In use at USA CGSC

TargetPopulation

Munitionsof theMind

WeaponsOf Mass

Construction

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CELTS - Technical Description/Approach• Java J2SE 6 based Sim Engine

• User Interface built on OpenMap™ framework– GIS based user interface

system allows placement of scenarios anywhere in the world

• Runs on Army Common Hardware Platform

• Extensible codebase utilizes OOP patterns and principles

• Stand-Alone HLA Compatibility

• Data Driven– Scenarios developed with

readily available, free, or inexpensive software

• Turn based approach allows simulation of long periods of time in a short training session.

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CELTS Operations• Asses AOR to determine

– Population groups– Order of battle– Approval/disapproval of

US/allied objectives• Regions coded as friendly,

neutral, or hostile based on assessment of population groups

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CELTS Operations• Uses gravity modeling to

simulate population movement, communications, commerce, etc.

• Inertia slows Regions ability to adopt change

• Drag and Drop Interface allows player to influence the region by– Presence– Targeted actions

• Opposing sides attempt to frustrate friendly sides

• Casualties affect national will• Visual display provides

immediate feedback to training audience as to the effectiveness of their operations.

• Built-in AAR tools allow focused discussion and learning.

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CELTS Operations – DIME & PMESII

Currently Supported Partially Supported Not Currently Supported

DIME & PMESII DIME & PMESII effects unfold effects unfold over weeks, over weeks, years, even years, even decades, but we decades, but we train for only train for only hours or days.hours or days.

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CSIS Assessment JAN 2008 vs CELTS

From: Cordesman, Anthoney, The Afghanistan-Pakistan War: Threat Developments, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Feb 1, 2008, page 29

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CSIS Assessment JAN 2008 vs CELTS

CELTS End State May 2009

CELTS March 2008Initialization

Produce plausible outcomes to promote discussion

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CELTS - Future DirectionCurrent•One-dimensional influence•Crisp values•All populations •Many items implicit

•Intelligence/sensing•Civil infrastructure•Trust/Fear of Government

•Cannot Save Game•Cannot input from Files

Future•Three-dimensional influence•Fuzzy logic•Specify populations/units•More items explicit

•Intelligence/Sensing•Civil infrastructure•Trust/Fear of Government

•Implement Save/Restore Game•Inputs from Files

Disposition HostileFriendly

Influence moves population along single axis

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CELTS Demonstration

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BACK U P

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“Currently, there are no extant models or federation of models that

can adequately or completely describe complex human, social, and cultural behavior interactions at the local, national or regional levels.” OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

COMBATING TERRORISM TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT OFFICE BROAD AGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT (BAA)

08-Q-3028 *****************************************************************

** HSC – Human, Social, and Cultural Behavior Modeling

1 FEB 2008

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CELTS – Advancing Toward the Objective• Current Constructive Simulations

– Largely restricted to 3rd Generation Wargaming

– Do not adequately cover PMESII factors

– Do not fully address non-lethal operations

– Do not model national will– Real time nature does not allow

time for effects of soft operations to unfold

• CELTS– Incorporating 4th Generation

Wargaming– Covers A broad range of

PMESII and non-lethal factors – Rates units and their

operations on their ability to change populaces’ support of US/allied objectives

– Models national will– Uses gravity modeling to

simulate population interaction and influence

– Turn based format provides ability to simulate long periods of time in A short training period

PMESII effects PMESII effects unfold over weeks, unfold over weeks, years, even years, even decades, but we decades, but we train for only hours train for only hours or days.or days.

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CELTS - Designed for Simplicity• Current Simulations are

Resource Intensive– Simulation Center– Large Contractor Staff– Extensive Training

• >10 Days– Poor Interface– Too Hard to Use– Many Operators– Only used for major

exercises

• CELTS is Designed for Minimum Footprint– Stand Alone– Minimum/No Support– Simple to Train

• <4 Hours– Intuitive Interface– Simple to Use– Few Operators– Can be used at

commander’s discretion

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CELTS - DIME ActionsDIME Diplomacy Information Military Economic

Strategic UN Resolution sanctioning armed force to effect regime change in targeted country

U.S. President delivers speech

Terrorist Conduct Out of Area Attack

Enable Trade Sanctions against neighboring country to renounce nuclear weapons

Operational Recall ambassador; issue diplomatic protest

Issue Fatwa to engage entire country

Station Troops in AOR/Targeted Country

Loan Guarantees for Infrastructure Improvement

Tactical National Elections

Graffiti/

Counter-Graffiti Campaigns

Various lethal/non-lethal operations conducted

Micro-Loans

Currently Supported Partially Supported Not Currently Supported

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CELTS - PMESII ActionsPMESII Political Miltary Economic Social Information Infrastructure

Strategic US Withdraws from AO due to lack of popular support

Terrorists Conduct Out of Area Attack

Enable Trade Sanctions against neighboring country to renounce nuclear weapons

US announces Human Rights campaign to improve lot of women in the world

U.S. President delivers speech

Announce initiative to provide all schools in AOR with Internet access and computers

Operational National Elections held in AOR

Station Troops in AOR/Targeted Country

Loan Guarantees for Infrastructure Improvement

USAID launches campaign to improve schools in targeted country

Issue Fatwa to engage entire country

Repair/ Construct Civil Infrastructure

Tactical Local rebel leader captured

Various lethal/non-lethal operations conducted

Micro Loans Medical Assistance

Graffiti/

Counter-Graffiti Campaigns

Conduct Engineer Operations (Demining)

Currently Supported Partially Supported Not Currently Supported

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CELTS – PMESII FocusedPolitical Military Economic Social Information Infrastructure

Assassination Air Strike Extortion Arrest Information Engagement

Sabotage

Counter-Graffiti Attack Micro-loans Assassination Graffiti Security

Curfew Capture Prisoners Pay Reparations Curfew Counter-Graffiti Vandalism

Elections Cordon & Knock/Search Fatwa PSYOPS Civil Engineering

Graffiti Engineer Ops Extortion Reporting

Humanitarian Assistance Holding Food Distribution Public Affairs

Civil Affairs IED/Suicide Ops Humanitarian Assistance

Kidnap Recruit/Impressment Incite Riot

Public Affairs Patrol Kidnap

Presidential Appeal RKT/Mort ATK Micro-Loans

Prisoner Hearing/Trial Sniper Operations Pay Reparations

Pay Reparations Target Acquisition Reporting

Suicide Bomb Security Prisoner Hearing/Trial

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CELTS - Applicable to Operational Themes

• Major Combat Operations (-)• Irregular Warfare (+)

– Counterinsurgency (+)– Support to an Insurgency (+)– Unconventional Warfare (+)– Foreign Internal Defense (-)– Combating Terrorism (+)

• Peace Operations (+)– Peacekeeping (+)– Peace Enforcement (0)– Peacemaking (0)– Peace Building (+)– Conflict Prevention (+)

• Limited Intervention (0)– Non Combatant Evacuation Operations

(NEO) (0)– Raid (-)– Strike (-)– Show of Force (-)– Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (+)– Consequence Management (+)– Enforcement of Sanctions (+)

• Peacetime Military Engagement (+)– Multinational Training/Exercises (0)– Joint Combined Exchange TNG (0)– State Partnership Program (0)– Military Support to Security Assistance (+)– Regional Defense Counterterrorism

Programs (+)– Recovery Operations (+)– Nation Assistance (+)– Arms Control (0)

(+)=High Applicability(0)=Some Applicability(-)=Minimum Applicability

Based on FM3-0

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Civil Infrastructure• Initially model four systems

– Sewage– Water– Electrical– Trash Disposal

• Ratings– Green Fully Functional– Amber Partially Functional– Red Minimally Functional– Black Not Functional

• May be– Attacked– Guarded– Sabotaged– Built– Repaired

• Contributes to Satisfaction Index– Green – Satisfied– Amber – Partially Satisfied– Red – Not Satisfied– Black - Unsatisfied

Challenge:Move a satisfied,hostile populationto support the friendly side

Friendly APU with poor satisfaction.

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Trust and Fear of Government• If Friendly Actions counter the effects

of Hostile Actions, and– If civilian casualties are low/or

decline– Then the population trusts the

government more, and– Friendly actions gain more

influence.• If Hostile Actions counter the effects of

Friendly Actions, and– If civilian casualties are high/or

increase– Then the population loses trusts

in the government more, and– Hostile actions gain more

influence.

Hostile APU with poor satisfaction and fear of Government.

• Ratings– Green – Trust– Amber – Some Trust– Red – Mistrust– Black – No Trust

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Non-Lethal Force Simulation Characteristics

CELTS JNEMSEAS IGS

Based on Loper, Modeling Overview, Georgia Tech, 2007

Deterministic Stochastic

Continuous Discrete

Abstract Physical

Static Dynamic

Spatial Point

Individual Aggregate

Qualitative Quantitative

Causal Co relational

Empirical Process

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Wargame Generations and Definitions

• First – Abstract strategy games: Chess, Go• Second – Military simulation games including

attrition, movement, logistics (most modern wargames, even today)

• Third – System on system games incorporating human factors, enemy war economy as a system

• Fourth – Including unconventional war and the battle for hearts and minds.