1.5 target: how to understand it? - iges · 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 百万吨...
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1.5℃ Target: how to understand it?
ERI, ChinaERI, China
Jiang Kejun
Energy Research InstitutePeking University
Japan-China Climate Policy Research Workshop 2017
Beijing , 6-7 Sep. 2017,
2oC Scenarios
Remaining CO2 budget vs.residual fossil emissions
3
1.5oC Scenarios
Cum
ulat
ive
2016
-210
0CO
2em
issi
ons
[GtC
O2]
1.5o
C
2oC
rang
e
2oC Scenarios
Luderer et al., in preparation Preliminary results
Residual emissions determined by • Pace of decarbonization• Configuration of (net) zero-carbon
and zero-emissions societyMain mitigation options:
• Demand reductions & efficiency improvements
• Electrification• switch to biomass / hydrogen / other
carbon-neutral fuels• Dietary changes, Synthetic feed and
meat• CDR & CCU
Consistent global and national emissions constraints
Preliminary results
[100
0 G
tCO
2]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Billi
on t
CO2
CO2 Emission
BAU
LC
ELC
2度1
2度2
1.5度
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
百万
吨标
煤
年份
一次能源需求量,1.5℃情景A
Bio-Diesel
Ethonal
Biomass
PowerSolar
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil
Primary energy demand in China
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Coal Coke Oil
百万
吨标
煤
年均下降量,终端能源
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
Decrease of final energy demand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtc
e煤炭消费量
其他
居民
供热
炼焦
建材
钢铁
发电
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
3500.0
2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Mtc
e
分部门终端能源需求
Rural Residential
Urban Residential
Service
Transport
Industry
Agriculture
Final Energy Demand by Sector
11
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
4000.00
4500.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
mill
ion
ton-
CO2
CO2 emission in power sector
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Mtc
e
Year
TPE, 1.5℃ Scenario
Bio-Diesel
Ethonal
Biomass PowerSolar
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Power Generation, 1.5℃ Scenario
Bio
Solar
Wind
Nulcear
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil fired
Coal fired
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
百万
吨CO
2
CO2排放量, 1.5度情景
CO2 Emission, 1.5℃
Near Zero Emission in Transport
Electric car/fuel cell car: 100% of market in 2025
Large vehicle:fuel cell vehicle by 2035
Vessel/ship:fuel cell by 2035
Airplane:biofuel by 2035,fuel cell starts from 2040
Other transport: electricity driven
四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析
4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors 3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Mtc
e
Year
Bio-fuel use in transport
Ethonal
Bio-Diesel
Near Zero Emission in Building
No fossil fuel use in building
Cooking:electrified,2035-2040
Space heating:electricity
Low emission in industry
Raising share of electricitydriven by electric motorsteel making: recycled steel with electric arc furnacerecycled metals
CCS utilization:steel making, cement manufacture
New industrial process: Reduction by hydrogen
0
100
200
300
400
500
200020052010201520202025203020402050
Mtce
E nergy use in transport
B io-D iesel
B io Jetfuel
E lectricity
N .G as
O il
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Mtc
e
Energy use in industry
Electricity
Heat
N.Gas
Petroleum
Town Gas
Coke
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050M
tce
Energy Demand in Building
Electricity
Heat
N.Gas
Petroleum
Town Gas
Coke
Coal
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
%CCS安装率
Clinker
Steel
CCS Utilization in industry
20
高效照明【如 LED照明】
光伏电池
能源检测系统
(家用电器)
生态生活教育
减少 60% 采暖需求,普及率70%
(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池,转换效率接近30%
COP =8, 普及率 100%
超高效空调
太阳热利用
普及率: 20-60%(目前 6%)
热泵采暖
COP=5普及率 30-70%
燃料电池
普及率 0-20%
高效绝热
减少50%照明需求,普及率 100%
待机电源耗电
降低1/3 ,普及率100%
2050年的低碳住宅舒适和节能
屋顶植被
5
太阳能利用
高效家用电器减少能源需求,支持舒适和安全生活方式
向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为
低碳消费
减少10-20% 能源需求
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
百万
吨CO
2
CO2排放量
Industrial process
Coke making
Heat
End use
Power generation
CO2 Emission
22
Scenario Analysis:JapanKoreaChinaIndiaThailandMalaysiaIndonesiaNepalVietnamCambodiaLaosPhilippine
A 2 degree Asia: A good way to understand the global target
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China’s FDI and ODI,1995-2014,US$100million
Low Carbon/Green Strategy for China’s Oversea Investment
ODI FDI
京津冀地区PM2.5浓度严重超标
2013-2015年PM2.5年均浓度2013年74个城市PM2.5年均浓度
2013年京津冀地区所有城市PM2.5年均浓度均超标,区域内PM2.5年平均浓度达106µg/m3,虽2014、2015年空气质量有所改善,但仍大幅超过国家空气质量二级标准。
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实现WHO推荐标准,能源活动PM2.5相关排放为0