14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

SCR 1284 and its implications

Colin Rowat, co-ordinator

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

14 February 2000

Liberation & CLESIP meeting

14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

About CASI

a registered society at the University of Cambridge; narrow humanitarian mandate:

exclusively concerned with the humanitarian consequences of sanctions on Iraq;

does not support Saddam Hussein's regime; does not take a position on:

military sanctions on Iraq; US/UK bombing of Iraq.

14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

Overview

Context of SCR 1284 SCR 1284

Preamble A. Unmovic B. Kuwaiti claims C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF D. Sanctions’ suspension

Questions Conclusions

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Context: search for consensus?

US/UK bombing (12/98): no UN authorisation, dubious motives Unscom not allowed back to Iraq

Panel reports commissioned (1/99) Humanitarian report: Annex II of S/1999/356 (30/3/99)

French proposal (13/1/99) + UK/Dutch proposal 17/12/99 SCR 1284 passed with 4 abstentions (intellectual context: these sanctions have failed)

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SCR 1284: Preamble

commitment to, among other things: "establishing in the Middle East a zone free from

weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery and the objective of a global ban on chemical weapons”

"sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Kuwait, Iraq and the neighbouring States”

expressed since SCR 687 (3/4/91) but largely ignored

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SCR 1284: A. Unmovic

Unmovic = Unscom + disarmament panel recommendations, “as appropriate” greater independence from Member States

(“International Civil Servants subject to Article 100” of UN Charter)

gives Unmovic up to 135 days to return to Iraq behind schedule (Blix’s appointment) approving “organizational plan” may be easy getting into Iraq probably harder

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SCR 1284: B. Kuwaiti claims

re-iterates Iraqi responsibility to return Kuwaiti and third country property and nationals Kuwait claims 605 missing persons cases still open Iraq continues to refuse to co-operate with the “Tripartite

Commission” established to address these concerns

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SCR 1284: C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF

Caveat: “Regardless of the improvements that might be brought about in the implementation of the current humanitarian programme … the magnitude of the humanitarian needs is such that they cannot be met within the context of the parameters set forth in resolution 986 (1995) and … resolution 1153 (1998).” [Humanitarian Panel Report]

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Selected measures in section C

Proposal Panel UK/Dutch SCR 1284 Commentslift oil salescap

para. 54(i)

para. 16 para. 15 - good- overdue- useless without pumping capacity

“green list” para. 55(i)

para. 23 para. 17 - good: speeds processing and adds transparency- OIP finalising list for presentation to SC- n.b. no infrastructural items

humanitarianassistance

para. 54(v)

para. 29 para. 19 - 14/1/00: Annan: “I have repeatedly encouragedthe international community … I regret that theresponse thus far has not been encouraging.”

interestfundssuspension

para. 54(vii)

para. 25 para. 20 - < $40 million / year; or- 2 year's of high protein biscuits for malnourished

children & pregnant/lactating mothers- 2 year’s ICRC 2000 Iraq budget

domesticpurchases+ cashcomponent

para. 56(i), (ii)

para. 28 para. 24 - free imports undermine Iraqi economy- Select Committee report notes this (para. 119,

120)

compensation fundsuspension

para. 54(vi)

para. 24 -- - UK/Dutch wanted 1/3- U.S. influence?

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SCR 1284: D. Sanctions’ suspension

“intention” to suspend sanctions if Iraq co-operates “in all respects” for 120 days

“fundamental objective” of the suspension is “improving the humanitarian situation in Iraq”

suspensions “subject to the elaboration of effective financial and other operational measures”

two fold uncertainty: co-operate “in all respects” on undefined work plan what sort of suspensions?

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Questions

will Iraq co-operate? France, China and Russia abstained regime more stable than in 1991 1284 offers regime few carrots but asks it to trust US

will Iraq be back in the news in 2000? getting Unmovic in risks tension U.S. election year: avoid or play tough?

humanitarian consequences? little promise of more money v. lots already in account

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Conclusions

humanitarian possibilities real but less than Panel’s does the FCO have projections for expected

humanitarian outcomes of 1284. If not, unclear that 1284 can be regarded as a serious humanitarian initiative.

sanctions’ suspension link to GoI co-operation reaffirms failed 1991 formula

failure to take trust building steps (i.e. can GoI trust US?) likely to hinder implementation