14-15 June 2006Parliament House

Canberra

Trends in energy for transport —What are the policy implications?

Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions

BTRE Transport Colloquium Transport Reform, Competition and the Future

David Cosgrove

Transport Energy Trends – Underlying effects

Population increases and demographic effects

Income increases and other economic impacts

Technical innovation or changing technology

Public preferences and behavioural responses

Costs of travel (fuel prices, fares, vehicle prices, congestion etc)

Increasing personal mobility (combined with limited time for daily travel)

Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks

Steadily increasing transport energy use

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

pa

ss

-km

tra

ve

lled

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

bill

ion

litr

es

fu

el c

on

su

me

d

Total Australian passenger task

National liquid fuel sales

Relationship between per capita travel and per capita income levels

Per capita transport generation

0

5

10

15

20

25

5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

Per capita income (GDP/population) - thousand dollars

Pe

r c

ap

ita

tra

ns

po

rt t

as

k

(th

ou

sa

nd

pk

m o

r tk

m p

er

pe

rso

n)

Passenger task - pkm per person

Freight task - tkm per person

Modal share of urban transport

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f to

tal u

rban

pas

sen

ger

-kilo

met

res

Cars + LCVs

Rail

Bus

Base-case Projections

Source: BTRE (2005, 2003), BTRE estimates. (LCVs = light commercial vehicles)

Mode share for Non-urban travel

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.919

45

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

pro

po

rtio

n o

f to

tal p

ass-

km

Car + other

Bus

Rail

Air

Base case projections

Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

19451950

19551960

19651970

19751980

19851990

19952000

20052010

20152020

bil

lio

n p

as

se

ng

er-

kil

om

etr

es

Other

Air

Rail

Bus

Car

Total Australian Passenger task

Base case projections

Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates – for domestic transport. (Other = mostly LCVs + motorcycles)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

bill

ion

ton

ne-

kilo

met

res

Air

Sea

Rail

Road

Total domestic freight task

Source: BTRE (2005, 2006), BTRE estimates

Base case projections

Total motor vehicle travel

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

bil

lio

n k

ilo

met

res

trav

elle

d

Motorcycle

Bus

Articulated

Rigid

LCV

Passenger cars

Source: BTRE (2005, 2003), BTRE estimates

Trends in engine efficiency – New cars

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

L/1

00km

per

GV

M (

ton

nes

)

US light vehicles

Australian light vehicles

Sources: BTRE (2002b), US EPA

Trend in engine power – new light vehicles

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

En

gin

e P

ow

er (

kW)

Source: BTRE (2002b)

Trend in average fuel consumption – New sales

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Fu

el i

nte

nsi

ty (

L/1

00km

)

Source: BTRE (2002b) – note: all light vehicles, including 4WDs and LCVs

Energy use by Australian domestic transport

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Pe

tajo

ule

s o

f e

ne

rgy

us

e

Coal

Aviationturbine fuel

Avgas

Heavydiesel fuels

Automotivediesel

Ethanol

Natural Gas

LPG

Petrol

Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: includes coal used for electric rail generation

Liquid fuel use – Domestic and International transport

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

bil

lio

n l

itre

s

Including internationaltransport to and from Australia

Domestic

Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: does not include military fuel use

Projected trend in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

tho

us

an

d t

on

ne

s o

f g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

s e

mis

sio

ns

Australian domestic civil transport

Total Australian tranport sector - including fuel sales to international carriers andthe military, energy used in fuel refining or conversion, and energy used invehicle manufacture and transport services

Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – gigagrams of CO2 equivalent emissions

Total transport sector emissions for Australia – including domestic civil transport, fuel sales to international carriers and the military, energy used in fuel refining or conversion, and energy used in vehicle manufacture and transport services

Trends in noxious urban air emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Ind

ex o

f ve

hic

le e

mis

sio

ns

Particulates

Nitrogen oxides

Carbon monoxide

Hydrocarbons

Source: BTRE (2003), BTRE estimates

NOx

PM

HC

CO

Transport energy trends by mode

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

pet

ajo

ule

s co

nsu

med

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Otherroad

LCVs

Cars

Source: BTRE (2005, 1996) – note: includes Australian fuel sales to international transport

Base case projections

David Cosgrove Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions

Trends in energy for transport — What are the policy implications?

References and further reading: BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107 BTRE (2002b), Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, Information Sheet 18 BTRE (2005), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To

2020, Report to AGO, August 2005, www.btre.gov.au/docs/monitoringreports/BTRE_AGO_05.pdf

BTRE (2006), Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, Report 112 BTE (2000), Urban Congestion - The Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Information Sheet

16 BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94 Cosgrove, D. & Mitchell, D. (2001), ‘Standardised Time-series for the Australian Road Transport

Task’, Proceedings of the 24th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Hobart 17 April 2001, Tasmanian Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources

Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions From Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, June 2003; study conducted for the Department of Environment and Heritage, BTRE 2003; www.btre.gov.au/docs/joint_reports/urbanpollutants_draft.aspx

Cosgrove, D.C. & Gargett, D. (1992), ‘The Australian Domestic Transport Task’, Papers of the Australasian Transport Research Forum, vol. 17, part 1