16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

10 January 2013

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model and Production Advancements for 2013 with

Targeted Improvements for Reliable Convective Weather Guidance in the

National Airspace System

NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB

Curtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Tanya Smirnova, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann, Ming Hu, John Brown, and Georg Grell

13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale)

13km RUC (mesoscale)

3km HRRR (storm-scale)

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RAP, hourly 15-h fcst

Replaced RUC at NCEP 05/01/12WRF, GSI, RUC features

Hourly Updated NWP Models

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 2

Model Version Initialized Forecast Length Run Time # CPUs Disk Space

RAP WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 18 hrs ~30 min 200 230 GB (per run)

HRRR WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 15 hrs ~50 min 1128 800 GB (per run)

Model Run at: Domain Grid Points

Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Height Lowest Level

Pressure Top Initialized

RAP GSD,NCO

North America

758 x 567 13 km 50 8 m 10 mb Hourly

(cycled)

HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 8 m 20 mb Hourly

(no-cycle)

RAP and HRRR Resources

NOAAHigh-Performance Computer System

Number of Filesystems

Total Reserved Disk Space CPU Type Total Reserved

CPUsPerformance

Increase

Jet (current) 3 190 TB Intel Nehalem 1736 -

Zeus (new) 2 443 TB Intel Westmere 2774 30%

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 3

13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast

13-kmResolution

ParameterizedConvection

3-kmResolution

ExplicitConvection

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesKey Advantage of 3-km HRRR

ACCURATESTORM

STRUCTURE

ACCURATE ESTIMATE OFPERMABILITY

NOSTORM

STRUCTURE

NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY

07 June 2012

5 PM EDTobserved

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 4

Verification of RAP-ESRL vs HRRRCold Season (29 Jan 2012 – 31 Mar 2012)

HRRR vs RAPLeadTime Clouds Precip

(13 km)Reflectivity

(40 km) Upper-Air Surface

Ceiling < 500 ft

Vis < 0.5 mile

> 0.1 inch

> 1.0 inch 25 dBZ 35 dBZ Temp RH Wind Temp Dewpt Wind

3-hr HRRR HRRREqual RAP

Equal HRRR HRRR Equal RAP HRRR RAP HRRR6-hr HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR Equal RAP HRRR Equal HRRR

12-hr HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP HRRR HRRR HRRR

Warm Season (01 May 2012 – 31 Aug 2012)HRRR vs RAP

LeadTime Clouds Precip

(13 km)Reflectivity

(40 km) Upper-Air Surface

Ceiling < 500 ft

Vis < 0.5 mile

> 0.1 inch

> 1.0 inch 25 dBZ 35 dBZ Temp RH Wind Temp Dewpt Wind

3-hr HRRR HRRREqual RAP

HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP Equal RAP Equal6-hr HRRR Equal HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP Equal Equal Equal

12-hr HRRR RAP HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP HRRR Equal Equal

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 5

3-km Interp

Hourly HRRR Initialization from RAP

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

tHMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst 3-km Interp

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst 3-km Interp

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst

13 km RAP

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z

Reflectivity

Convergence Cross-Section

RAPHRRR

RADAR

RAPHRRR

no radar

00z 12 Aug 2011

00z init

Convergence Cross-Section

Reflectivity

01z 12 Aug 2011

+1h fcst

RAPHRRR

RADAR

RAPHRRR

no radar

Eastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dBZ11-21 August 2011

• 3km HRRR forecasts improve upon RAP 13km forecasts, especially at coarser scales much better upscaled skill

• Radar DDFI adds skill at both 13km and 3km

CSI 13 km CSI 40 km

HRRR no radarRAP no radar

HRRR radarRAP radar

HRRR no radarRAP no radar

HRRR radarRAP radar

Radar Reflectivity Verification

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 9

Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum Param PBL LSM

RAP WRF-ARW v3.3.1+ GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTM/

Goddard Thompson G3 + Shallow MYJ RUC

HRRR WRF-ARWv3.3.1+

None: RAP I.C. No RRTM/

Dudhia Thompson None MYJ RUC

Model Run at: Domain Grid Points

Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Pressure Top

Boundary Conditions Initialized

RAP GSD,NCO

North America

758 x 567 13 km 50 10 mb GFS Hourly

(cycled)

HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 20 mb RAP Hourly - RAP

(no-cycle)

RAP and HRRR Config 2012

Model Horiz/VertAdvection

ScalarAdvection

Upper-LevelDamping

SW RadiationUpdate Land Use MP Tend

Limit Time-Step

RAP 5th/5th Positive-Definite

w-Rayleigh0.2 10 min MODIS

Fractional 0.01 K/s 60 s

HRRR 5th/5th Positive-Definite

w-Rayleigh0.2 5 min MODIS

Fractional 0.07 K/s 20-23 s

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10

Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum Param PBL LSM

RAP WRF-ARW v3.4.1+ GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTMG/

RRTMG Thompson G3 + Shallow MYNN RUC9-level

HRRR WRF-ARWV3.4.1+

None: RAP I.C. No RRTMG/

RRTMG Thompson None MYNN RUC9-level

Model Run at: Domain Grid Points

Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Pressure Top

Boundary Conditions Initialized

RAP GSD,NCO

North America

758 x 567 13 km 50 10 mb GFS Hourly

(cycled)

HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 20 mb RAP Hourly - RAP

(no-cycle)

RAP and HRRR Config 2013

Model Horiz/VertAdvection

ScalarAdvection

Upper-LevelDamping

SW RadiationUpdate Land Use MP Tend

Limit Time-Step

RAP 5th/5th Positive-Definite

w-Rayleigh0.2 10 min MODIS

Fractional 0.01 K/s 60 s

HRRR 5th/5th Positive-Definite

w-Rayleigh0.2 5 min MODIS

Fractional 0.07 K/s 20-23 s

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 11

HRRR Forecast Behavior

2013 Targets

(1) 3-km scale at 00-hr

(2) Reduced “spin-up”

during forecast period

(3) Optimal echo top bias

(4) Reduced latency of 1-2

hrs

(5) Dual HPCS reliability

RAP/HRRRModelDevelopment andEvaluation

2012

(1) Coarse 00-hr analysis

(2) Convective “spin-up”

during forecast period

(3) Low echo top bias

(4) Latency of 2-3 hrs

(5) Single HPCS reliability

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 12

Model Data Assimilation

RAP-ESRL(13 km)

WRFv3.4.1+ incl. physics changes (convection, snow-radiation fix)Numerics changes: 6th-order diffusion near surfacePhysics changes: MYNN PBL scheme 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer) Modified roughness length RRTMG short/longwave radiation Thompson microphysics update

Merge with GFS trunk

GFS ensemble background error cov

Cloud fraction assimilation Full column cloud building

Radiance bias correction

Reduced observation error(sharper inversions, low-level thermo)

HRRR (3 km)

WRFv3.4.1+ incl. physics changes (convection, snow-radiation fix)Numerics changes: 6th-order diffusion near surfacePhysics changes: MYNN PBL scheme 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer) Modified roughness length RRTMG short/longwave radiation Thompson microphysics update

3 km/15 min reflect assimilation3 km cloud cycling3 km land-surface cycling

RAP and HRRR Changes 2013

3-km Interp

2013: Cycled Reflectivity at 3 km

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

3-km Interp

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z13 km RAP

15 hr fcst1 hr pre-fcst

Refl Obs

1-hr Reduction In Latency for 14z HRRR

Latent Heating (LH) Specification

Obse

rved 3

-D R

adar

Reflect

ivit

y

Tim

e (

min

)

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

-60 -45 -30-15 0Model Pre-Forecast Time (min)

Temperature Tendency (i.e. LH) = f(Observed Reflectivity)LH specified from reflectivity obs applied in four 15-min periodsThe observations are valid at the end of each 15-min pre-fcst periodNO digital filtering at 3-kmHour old mesoscale obsLatency reduced by 1 hr

LH = Latent Heating Rate (K/s)p = PressureLv = Latent heat of vaporizationLf = Latent heat of fusionRd = Dry gas constantcp = Specific heat of dry air at constant pf[Ze] = Reflectivity factor converted to

rain/snow condensatet = Time period of condensate formation

(600s i.e. 10 min)16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 15

Observed Radar Reflectivity (3-D)Based Latent Heating

Model MicrophysicsLatent Heating0

Weig

ht

1

-60 -45 -30-15 0Model Pre-Forecast Time (min)

0

Weig

ht

1

-60 -45 -30-15 0Model Pre-Forecast Time (min)

Experiment 1a “Fixed” Experiment 1b “Ramp”

0

Many options for weighting LH specification vs model LHTwo approaches including:(a)100% specification for the entire pre-forecast hour (b) Time-varying with linear ramp down to 0% specification at 1 hr

Option (b) permits more “free model” behavior before additional DA

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 16

Latent Heating (LH) Specification

0-h fcstwithout 3-km

radar DA

Obs0000 UTC11 June

2011

0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(fixed)

0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)

Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration

1-h fcstwithout 3-km

radar DA

Obs0100 UTC11 June

2011

1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(fixed)

1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)

Convective systems more mature even by 1-hr

3-day retrospective period 09-12 June 2011 (36 runs)Forecasts every 2 hours

> 25 dBZ Composite ReflectivityEastern half of US

Upscaled to 40-km grid

With 3-km fixed radar DAWith 3-km ramp radar DAWithout 3-km radar DA

Bias = 1.0

Native3-km grid

Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr

Benefit persists until 4 hrsVery similar skill at longer lead times

HRRR Reflectivity Verification

14-day retrospective period June 2011 (160 runs)Forecasts every 2 hours

> 25 dBZ Composite ReflectivityEastern half of US

Upscaled to 40-km grid

With 3-km ramp radar DAWithout 3-km radar DA

Bias = 1.0

Native3-km grid

Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr

Benefit persists until 4 hrsVery similar skill at longer lead times

HRRR Reflectivity Verification

0-h fcstwithout 3-km

radar DA

Obs1800 UTC29 May 2011

0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)

Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration

0-h fcstwith fully

cycled 3-km DA

6-h fcstwithout 3-km

radar DA

Obs0000 UTC30 May 2011

6-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)

6-h fcstwith fully

cycled 3-km DA

Fully Cycled 3-km DA shows improved structures

CoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LLProvide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community

HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

VIL

Ech

o T

op

CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

ObservationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011

Blend with CIWS

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Forecasts for Aviation

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 23

New HRRR ET Diagnostic

Calibration of echo tops to produce improved bias

Current 2012 HRRR ET Diagnostic

(1) In each column starting from the top model level, locate the height of the first model level (if any) where HRRR reflectivity ≥ 18 dBZ

Proposed new HRRR ET Diagnostic

(1) In each column starting from the top model level, locate the height of the first model level (if any) where HRRR reflectivity ≥ 18 dBZ

(2) If and only if (1) is satisfied, repeat search through model column and locate the height of the first model level whereHRRR reflectivity ≥ 11 dBZ

(3) Interpolate between modellevel height identified in (2) and height of next level

above to estimate exact 11 dBZ height

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 24

HRRR 4 hr forecast

Observation01z 21 June 2012

Old2012

Echo Tops (kft)

New HRRR ET Diagnostic

Current 2012 low bias in echo tops

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 25

NEW2012

New HRRR ET Diagnostic

HRRR 4 hr forecast

Observation01z 21 June 2012

Echo Tops (kft)

Calibration of echo tops to produce improved bias

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 26

HRRR ET Diagnostic VerificationEastern US 03-km BIAS 344 runs 08-25 July 2012

25 kft 30 kft

35 kft 40 kft

Optimal Optimal

OptimalOptimal

New ETOld ET

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 27

HRRR ET Diagnostic VerificationEastern US 40-km CSI 344 runs 08-25 July 2012

25 kft 30 kft

35 kft 40 kft

New ETOld ET

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 28

Public UsersESRLJet

HRRRPrimary

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesCurrent “Single” HPCS Dataflow

Zeus

Obs Data(Radar, Satellite,

Lightning, Conventional)

NCEP/NCO

Obs

HRRR grids

Obs

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 29

RAPPrimary

HRRR grids

HRRRBackup

RAPBackup

Everything Depends on Jet and ESRL Availability

Public UsersESRLJet

HRRRPrimary

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesPlanned 2013 Dual HPCS Dataflow

Zeus

Obs Data(Radar, Satellite,

Lightning, Conventional)

NCEP/NCO

Obs

HRRR grids

Obs

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 30

RAPPrimary

HRRR grids

HRRRBackup

RAPBackup

Obs

HRRR grids

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 31

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 32

CoSPA Evaluation Periods

Development and Upgrade Periods

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR ReliabilityHRRR 12 hr fcst availability

Includes all missed/incomplete runs

3 month running average

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 33

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

CoSPA Evaluation Periods

Development and Upgrade Periods3 month running average

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Excludes three (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 34

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs

Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup)

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 35

Jet Maintenance

Jet or Zeus (union)

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 36

Jet or Zeus (union)

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Excludes three (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 37

• Current – 1 computer running HRRR– NOAA/ESRL – Boulder– Current reliability: 97% for last 12h months

(allowing up to 3h gaps)

• 2013-14 – 2 computers running HRRR – interim solution– Boulder – computer 1– Fairmont, WV – computer 2– Expected reliability to increase further to 98.5-99% via coordination of

downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers

• Est. 2015 – NCEP running HRRR– NOAA/NCEP computing budget – will allow no increase before 2015

• Conclusion: Interim HRRR computing for 2012-14 on 2 sites to provide “real-time experimental” HRRR from NOAA for NWS, FAA, DOE/energy users

HRRR Transition to NCEP

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 38

• Moist bias reduced in 2012 RAP and HRRR– Reduced false alarms, lower precipitation bias– GSI enhancements and WRF upgrade to v3.3.1– Reflectivity diagnostic consistent with microphysics

• Science: Focus on 3-km assimilation for 2013– 3-km variational analysis– 3-km non-variational cloud analysis– 3-km radar reflectivity data assimilation

• Technical: Reduced latency for 2013 (2-3 hrs now)– Approximate 1-hr reduction in execution time (1-2 hrs)– Faster post-processing with parallelization– Direct GRIB2 generation

Summary and Plans

16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 39