13 sept 2011 impact of armed conflicts in the glr

8/3/2019 13 Sept 2011 Impact of Armed Conflicts in the GLR

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THE REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OFCONFLICTS ON POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREATLAKES REGION

Prepared by:

Frank Emmanuel Muhereza

Senior Research Fellow,Centre for Basic Research, Kampala

Presented at the International Conference on RegionalDimensions of Conflicts in the Great Lakes Region,

held at Hotel La Mada, Nairobi,

12-14 September 2011 1


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IC/GLR Member and Co-opted Countries

Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

Mauritania

Mali

LibyaEgypt

SudanChad

Niger

Burkina

Faso

Nigeria

CameroonCentral African

Republic

Ethiopia

Keny

aUgand

a

Tanzania

Mozambiqu

e

MadagascarZimbabw

e

South Africa

Botswan

a

Namibi

a

Angol

a Zambia

Democratic Republic

of Congo

Lesotho

Swaziland

Malaw

i

BurundiRwand

a

Somalia

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

GabonCong

o

Benin

Togo

Ghana

Ivory

CoastLiberia

Sierra Leone

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

SenegalKap Verde

Eritrea

Gambia

IC/GLR Member States

Co-opted Countries

Sao Tome & Principe

Comoros

Mauritius

Reunion

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Structure of the Paper

Introduction

The Regional dimensions of armed conflicts inthe Great Lakes Region

Framework for analyzing the regional implicationsof armed conflicts

The regional implications of armed conflicts oneconomic, political and social spheres

Interventions undertaken to mitigate the regionalimplications of armed conflicts

Challenges and Gaps

Policy recommendations 3


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Introduction

Conflicts are broadly defined as the different

forms of disagreements over values.

Values - perceptions of different categories ofindividuals about their rights, which define their

identity and freedoms. They are a collectiveexpression of beliefs, interests and desire of aparticular social group vis--vis another, withregards to how basic needs (security, identity,recognition, devt) are expressed and pursued.

How we express them can be exclusive to theneeds of others reconcilable or incompatible

violent or non-violent. 4


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Introduction

Violence occurs when the disagreement overvalues involves any form of physical confrontationsuch as a fight, battle, or struggle, which depictsaggressive behaviour that is often accompanied

by cruelty or brutality Armed violence is the intentional use of physical

force (threatened or actual) involving different

forms of firearms, against another person or agroup/community, which is likely to result inmental or physical injury, death, deprivation orloss of livelihood (e.g. SGBV, kidnappings).

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Introduction

Armed conflict is as a contested

incompatibility which concerns governmentand/or territory where the use of armed forcebetween two parties, resulting in at least 25

battle-related deaths in one calendar year. Of the two parties, at least one has to be the

government of a state; and the other a non-state

actor (a formally organised group or civilians) Can be two states using proxies

It is a war when number of people killed in a

calendar year are >1,000 battle deaths6


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The Regional

Dimensions of theArmed Conflict in the

GLR

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The interconnectedness of theArmed Conflicts in the GLR

Elements of interconnectedness (causes /drivers; shared characteristics; one leads toand/or affects the other; outcomes/impacts)

Territorial contiguity/trans-boundaryresources/trans-national ethnicities (Angola vsDRC; Uganda vs DRC; Rwanda vs DRC;

Uganda vs Rwanda; RoSS vs Republic ofSudan)

Regime consolidation vs regime change

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Commercial benefit (sales of weapons orexploitation of NRs - below-ground (minerals &fossil fuels) vs. above-ground (timber, land)

Ownership, control over and access to NRs (in-country/cross-border) for basic livelihood - cropfarmers vs pastoral communities)

Insecurity (porous borders) state presencelow (SALW proliferation; armed criminality)

High poverty levels amidst untapped NR wealth

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The causes, drivers and impacts are not onlydiverse but also regionally interconnected

Factors identified as causes and drivers of armed

conflicts are sometimes the same factors identifiedas outcomes and impacts of armed conflicts

Causes/drivers of conflicts and outcomes/impacts

are mutually reinforcing & complex (e.g. poverty;environmental degradatn/climate change)

Identified economic, political, social impacts are sointerdependent that a failure in one risks failure in

all others 10


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Every one of the conflicts is linked to at leastone (or several) other(s), in terms of:

Causes (underlying/proximate); drivers and

triggers

The actors involved (state/non-state; direct/proxy);and operate at various levels (household,

community, national, regional and international) The interests and motives of actors and purveyors

(over or covert interests); short/medium/long-term

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Regionalization of armed conflicts in terms of:

Geographical coverage/trans-national operations(externalization of internal conflicts armed rebel

groups fighting one country, but set up camps inanother country)

Composition of fighting forces (Burundians and

Congolese in ADF; Ugandans commanding unitsof al shabaabmilitias in Somalia; Children fromDRC, Sudan and CAR abducted and forcefullyconscripted into LRA)multi-nationalization of

fighting forces 12


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Regionalization of their military agendas

LRA fighting alongside rebel groups in CAR andChad, and reports indicate there may be some

involvement of the LRA in Darfur conflict ADF rebels could in future fight in Burundi,

sometimes they ally with armed militias in DRC

Al Shabaabterror cells carrying out attacks inUganda, Kenya and targeting Burundi

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A conflict in one country affects all theneighboring countries, and sometimes, thosewithout a contiguous geographical border

Mainly negatively (refugees; but also IDPs due toarmed activities in 3rd country), but sometimespositively (brain-drain); directly/indirectly

When one country in the GLR sneezes, all theothers catch a cold, in the following ways:

Refugees; activities of armed groups spreadsinsecurity/cross-border incursions (displacement);

HR violations; Poverty/loss of livelihoods 14


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Unresolved internal conflicts always getexternalized (regionalised), and eventuallyinternationalized

Interventions from other states on the side ofgovt or rebels / snowball effect start ofother internal / external conflicts

State or the non-state actors may seek the helpfrom neighboring; interventions from neighboringcountries (direct or proxy)

Interventions from the international community15


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Liberation of Mozambique Struggle against Idi

Amin 1978 invasion of Tanzania by Amin 1979

Tanzanias war against Amin Musevenis Armed

struggle Armed rebellions against Museveni SPLA Civil war in Burundi RPA invasion of

Rwanda Rwanda Genocide Foreign armed

rebel groups in DRC Laurent Kabilas armed

struggle against Mobutu (1stCongo War) Rwanda/Uganda armed struggle against Laurent Kabila (2ndCongo war) Angola/Zimbabwe/Sudan/ Chad/Libya

Proliferation of DRC armed groups Uganda vs

Rwanda 16


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Framework for

Analyzing regionalimplications of armed

conflicts

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Framework for Analyzing regionalimplications of armed conflicts

1st Premise: Recognize the complexity of thesubject matter because of the degree ofinterconnectedness of pertaining variables

2nd Premise: The impact of armed conflicts isinfluenced by a multitude of mediating factors; isnot a given, and is context specific

3rd Premise: The impact of armed conflicts canbe at micro, meso, macro, and regional levels.The impacts at these various levels are mutuallyreinforcing

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Framework for Analyzing regionalimplications of armed conflicts

4th Premise: The impact of armed conflicts onmany aspects of life are diffuse and sometimesdifficult to disaggregate and demonstrate. Some

of the impacts are indirect and occur after somany years after the conflicts have ended, andvery devastating.

5th

Premise: A focus on the regional dimensionsof the implications of armed conflicts makes itpossible to identify the cross-border dynamicsignored in national policy programs.

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The Regional

Implications of theArmed Conflicts in the

GLR

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Impact on the Economicspheres of the Region

During armed conflicts, millions of people arekilled (either directly during combat or beingtargeted as a result of proliferation of

firearms), or indirectly due to being caught inthe cross-fire or as a result of causesoccasioned by armed conflicts malnutrition;

preventable diseases). Injuries/casualties The indirect costs of armed conflicts sometimes

higher than the direct costs

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Fragmentation of the state fragility of conflictafflicted states - inability to enforce statecontrol over parts of a country

(Illegal) exploitation of NRs by unauthorized stateand non-state entities (national/foreign); illegaltaxation/economic exactions; forces of occupation

involve in pillage/plunder The more it becomes economically profitable to

indulge in armed conflicts, the more the numberof armed groups will keep coming up

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The economic costs of armed conflict are veryhigh, and hinder economic growth and devt

Direct costs: insecure people invest less (less

domestic capital formation); destruction ofinfrastructure; divert money from productive usesto military spending; medical costs; care forIDPs/refugees.

Between 1999 and 2007, wars cost Africa US$284bn interms of devt (IANSA, Oxfam & Saferworld: 2007)

Africa looses US$18bn per year due to armed conflicts

Armed conflicts shrinks an African countrys economy

by 15% 23


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Cumulative GDP Loss for Burundi, 1989-2005:(IANSA, Oxfam International & Saferworld, 2007)

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Armed violence in Kenya in2007

The post-election violence arising from the2007 disputed presidential election results,affected Kenyas economic development

There was an aggregate decline of growthrate from 7 per cent in the year 2006 to below3 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 1.7 per

cent in 2009 The decline, was among others, due to impact

of the armed violence.

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Impact of Armed Conflicts on Annual growthand GDP loss in selected countries

IANSA, Oxfam International & Saferworld (2007)

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Costs of Armed Conflicts at National level:IANSA, Oxfam International & Saferworld (2007)

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Indirect costs: incomes from NRs are creamedoff by conflict entrepreneurs; shrinking of nationaland regional economies; more people die from

dysfunctional service delivery than from war;armed conflicts undermines efforts by people toescape poverty; neighboring countries suffer dueto reduced trade, insecurity and influx of refugees.

African countries in conflicts have: 50% more infantdeaths; 15% more undernourished people; Lifeexpectancy reduced by five years; 20% more adultilliteracy; 2.5 times fewer doctors per patient; and

12.4% less food per person 28


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Degradation of the Environment and NRs

Habitat destruction; loss of wildlife, over-exploitation and degradation of NRs, and

pollution. Vegetation may be cut, burned, or defoliated to

improve mobility or visibility for troops

Vegetation cleared for IDP/Refugee camps; forgardens and charcoal

Armed conflicts increase resource scarcities bymaking available natural resources difficult/costly

to access or completely inaccessible. 29


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2010 Human Development Index (HDI) rankings ofcountries in the GLR: Republic of Congo (128);Kenya (128) Uganda (143) Angola (146); Tanzania

(148); Zambia (150); Rwanda (152); Malawi (153);Sudan (154); Mozambique (165); Burundi (166); theDemocratic Republic of Congo (168).

At least 22 of the 34 countries least likely to achieve

the MDGs targets by 2015 are in the midst of oremerging fromconflict. By 2010, half of the worldspoorest people were living in states that wereexperiencing violent conflict or were at risk of it.

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Economic benefits from armed conflicts(legitimate vs non-legitimate)

Export of minerals/NRs exploited illegally in

DRC (Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi)

Economic returns from Peace Support

operations at State and individual levels

AMISOM; UNMIS; Liberia; Sierra Leone; AMIB;MONUC/MONUSCO (fat salaries)

US army financial, military and logistical support toUPDF for AMISOM; Operation Lighting Thunder

War-Booty from the 1979 Ug-Tanzania war 31


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Countries whose internal economies havebeen affected by armed conflicts imposeconstraints on the economies of neighboring

countries

Armed conflicts and violence exacerbatepoverty which leads to underdevelopment

countries afflicted by armed conflicts divertavailable resources (public/donors) to supportarmed conflict expenditures

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Impact on the Political spheresof the Region

Undermining diplomatic relations betweencountries

Attrition of institutions of the state (security,political, administrative) as a deliberatestrategy to herald the collapse of thefunctioning of a sitting government

Arms race and arms proliferation countrieshave been investing in self-defense weaponry

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Impact on the Political spheresof the Region

Conflagration of intra-state and inter-statearmed conflicts

Prolonged exposure to civil strife and armed

conflicts increases the risk of recurrence of armedconflicts because of fragile State institution tohandle internal insecurity, law and ordermaintenance

Human rights violations

Denial of right to life; Restriction of freedoms andliberties; Absence of basic standards

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I t th S i l S h f


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Impact on the Social Spheres ofthe Region

Disruption of social relations and weakening ofsocial capital

Intensification of vulnerability

Impedes access basic social services: health care;education; clean water. Leads to increasedincidence of preventable diseases

Psycho-social challenges (Post-TraumaticStress Disorders)

Combatants and non-combatants (includingcommunities affected by armed conflicts)

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I t th S i l S h f


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Impact on women Conflict-related sexual and gender violence (rape,

sex trafficking; prostitution; sex-for-food; sex-for-

freedom/life; domestic violence) Creation of space for womens empowerment

(Acquisition of new skills and new responsibilities)

Impact on children and youth

Children grow up deprived of their material andemotional needs, including structures that givemeaning to social and cultural life

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Impact on the Social Spheres of


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Population displacement (IDPs and Refugees) At the peak of the armed conflicts in the GLR in

the 1990s, there was approx. 2.7 million refugees

from the region and more than 4 million IDPs IDPs in DRC, Uganda, Sudan, Kenya

By Jan 2011, DRC was hosting 180,000 refuges inNorth and South Kivu, Bas Congo, Katanga,

Bandundu and Kasai regions Angola (60,900), Burundi (14,600), Rwanda (65,500)

and the rest from Republic of the Congo and Sudan

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Impact on the Social Spheres of


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By Jan 2011, an estimated 444,054 refugees fromDRC living in neighbouring countries

Angola (13,364); Burundi (24,614); CAR (20,899);Republic of Congo (125,330); Rwanda (54,143); Sudan

(19,709); Tanzania (63,275); Uganda (74,895); Zambia(21,965); and the rest of Africa (25,860).

By April 2010, DRC had a total of 1,903,939 IDPs

North Kivu (793,920); South Kivu (628,946); Katanga(15,127); Province Orientale (442,946); and Equateur(33,000)

Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania also hosting largenumbers of refugees

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Interventions to

Mitigate the RegionalImplications

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I i Mi i h


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Interventions to Mitigate theRegional Implications

Military interventions to end armed rebellions, whichlead to the adverse impacts

Military co-operation

Regular meetings of Defense and Police Chiefs in EAC Operation Lighting thunder December 2008 in Orientale

Province (Uganda, DRC and Sudan, with military andlogistical support from the US)

Uganda and Kenya over disarmament of armed pastoralgroups

Peaceful Resolution of conflicts (Burundi Peaceagreement of 2009; Sudan CPA of 2005)

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I i Mi i h


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Regional Agreements, Protocols and Frameworks toend armed conflicts

1999 Lusaka Ceasefire agreement for DRC

The Juba Peace process Regional Protocols and Frameworks for promoting

political co-operation (Peace, Security, Borders)

The ICGLR pact on Peace and Stability of 2006

Ngurdoto Accord, Sept 2007 (marking the Albert border)

Joint Technical Survey of Migingo island border (2010-11)

Luanda agreement 2002 for normalization of relationsbetween Uganda and DRC

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Interventions to Mitigate the


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Regional Protocols and frameworks forpromoting economic integration

Ruzizi II hydropower station (SINELAC)

Normalization of relations between Heads ofState (Uganda, Rwanda and DRC)

H.E. Museveni and H.E. Kagame attended DRCs

50th independence celebration in June 2010; H.E.Musevenis 1st official state visit to Rwanda sincethe DRC clashes was in July 2011

Uganda and Rwanda have restored full diplomatic

relations with DRC 42

I t ti t Miti t th


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Bi-lateral co-operation frameworks, with or withoutthird parties

Third Party Diplomacy and Mediation Efforts

in the region Mediation efforts led by/under auspices of AU;

IGAD; EAC; COMESA; SADC; ICGLR

Peace Support Operations (AMISOM; AMIB)

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I t ti t Miti t th


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The role of the International Community

Humanitarian assistance

UN Security Council Resolutions; threats of

interventions; Use of Sanctions/bans (armsprocurement, travel bans, trade in conflictminerals); Direct interventions through peace-keeping missions (MONUC/MONUSCO);

US Congress (LRA/Sudan Peace Process)

The International Court of Justice (ICJ)

The International Criminal Court (ICC)44

A C t i t i i f th k f th ICC i


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A Cartoonists impression of the work of the ICC in

Africa, the Star Newspaper (Kenya), 29 June 2011,pp.25

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Challenges andGaps

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Challenges and Gaps

Internal democracy and political governance inthe member countries

Strong leaders vs weak institutions

Limitations of the First-past-the-Post (winner-

take-all) electoral systems Elections have not helped to deal with underlying issues

of open political space for different interests (political,ethnic, regional); Manipulation of electoral processes

and outcomes - countries emerge from elections moredivided than united

Conflict drivers originating from countries

outside the GLR47


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Challenges and Gaps

Political commitment to regional frameworksby member states (esp. annual contributions)

Multiplicity of regional frameworks in the GLR,which are sometimes overlapping andcontradictory

Contradictions in Western interventionism esp.

the Right-to-Protect (R2P) and DoubleStandards

The ICJ withdrawal of the case against Rwanda

and Burundi48


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Recommendationsfor Policy Makers

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R d ti f P li


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Recommendations for PolicyMakers

Deepening Democratic Reforms in membercountries

Political representativeness and inclusion; as well

as broadening participation in political governance(beyond holding periodic elections)

Addressing poverty and other conditions that

make people angry and/or resort to use ofviolence to have their interest/needs addressed

Underlying causes of armed conflicts in membercountries, which leads to externalization of conflicts50

R mm d ti f P li


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Regional and cross-border co-operation andeconomic integration projects

Joint venture in extending Oil pipeline from Eldoret

to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and DRC Joint venture Oil and Gas extraction in the Lake

Albert Basin

Joint Tourism projects (Virunga/Muhabura) Harmonization of policy/legal frameworks for

regional co-operation and integration51

Recommendations for Polic


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Increase investment in visibleinterdependence and support for bilateralstability for all countries in the GLR

Develop formal Security and Military co-operationPacts on non-aggression (directly or throughproxies); joint defence

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[email protected]

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13 sept 2011 impact of armed conflicts in the glr

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