12.09.20 cbi international economic outlook (sep)
TRANSCRIPT
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7/28/2019 12.09.20 CBI International Economic Outlook (Sep)
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International Economic Outlook
QUARTERLY september 2012
Uncainy o uild houghauunTh gb vy m v
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CBI international forecasts
2011 2012 2013US 1.7 2.0 2.3Eurozone 1.5 -0.5 0.3
Germany 3.1 1.1 1.7
France 1.7 0.0 0.6
Italy 0.5 -2.1 0.0
Spain 0.7 -1.4 -2.8
UK 0.8 -0.3 1.2Japan -0.7 2.8 1.9China 9.3 7.8 8.5India 7.5 5.3 6.7Brazil 2.7 2.4 5.0Russia 4.3 4.0 3.0World 3.8 3.4 3.7
EuoEuz
Deep recessions in the periphery
2-4
UK
Subdued prospects for growth
5-7
Oh Eup
Outlook contingent on the Euro area
8-9
USFed acts on persisting unemployment
10-12
JaanDomestic demand shows loss of momentum
13Eging akCh
Slowdown continues into Q3
14
Id
Questions over long-term growth potential
15
Bz
Tentative signs of a pick-up in activity
16
Ru
Softer growth likely in H2 2012
16
Gloal iuFood and oil pricesthe only way is up?
17-18
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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EurozoneCBI Eurozone forecast
12mth% unless otherwise stated 2 011 2 012 2 013Gr ow t h and consumpt ionReal GDP, of which: 1.5 -0.5 0.3
Germany 3.1 1.1 1.7
France 1.7 0.0 0.6
Italy 0.5 -2.1 0.0
Spain 0.7 -1.4 -2.8
Household consumption 0.2 -0.7 0.0
Fixed investment 1.6 -3.1 0.6
Government consumption -0.3 -0.5 -0.8
External TradeExports 6.3 3.2 2.4
Imports 4.1 0.0 1.6
CPI inflat ion 2.7 2.4 2.1Unemployment rate (%) 10.2 11.3 11.9Gov e r nme nt balance (% of GDP ) -4.1 -3.5 -2.5ECB refi rate (%)* 1.0 0.5 0.5*end year
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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Trade Balances with the Rest of the Eurozone
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% of GDP
Germany France Italy
Spain Portugal Greece
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
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-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2
pp
Consumption Government Investment Inventories Net Trade
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25.1%. Ev G k
v k g :
p M,
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The periphery is not benefitting frommonetary stimulusAg , E HICP
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Interest Rates on Short-Term Loans to NFCs
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
%
Germany France Italy Spain
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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O 2012 2013
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UKCBI UK forecast
12mth% unless otherwise stated 2011 2012 2013Growth and consumptionReal GDP 0.8 -0.3 1.2
Household consumption -1.0 -0.1 1.4Fixed investment -1.4 1.1 3.7
Government consumption 0.1 2.7 -0.6
External TradeExports 4.4 -0.4 3.5
Imports 0.5 2.1 3.7
CPI inflation 4.5 2.6 2.2Unemployment rate (%) 8.1 8.1 8.4Public sector net borrowing (% of GDP) 8.2 8.8** 7.7Bank Rate (%)* 0.5 0.5 0.5*annual average; ** excludes transfer of Royal Mail pension assets
UK GDP (q/q%)
0.5
-0.1
0.6
-0.4-0.3
-0.5
0.6
0.2
0 .3 0 .3
0 .4 0 .4
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
CBI forecast
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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time in quarters, pre-recession GDP peak = 0
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CBIforecast
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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5% w Q1
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2002
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2004
2005
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2011
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-15
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Goods Se rvic es
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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Scandinavia & Switzerland: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
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% yr/yrNorway Sweden Denmark Switzerland
80
90
100
110
120
130
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008=100
NO Krone SE Krona DK Krone CH Franc
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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2008 S
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Growth still weak in SwitzerlandS GDP 0.1% Q2,
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-7.0
-6.0
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-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0Hungary Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Serbia Romania
CzechRepublic Croatia Latvia Poland Turkey
-15
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0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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international economic outlook - march 2012
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international economic outlook - september 2012
T
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Ud SsCBI United States forecast
GDPcontributions to growth
12mth% unless otherwise stated 2011 2012 2013Growth and consumptionReal GDP 1.7 2.0 2.3
Household consumption 2.2 2.0 2.2Fixed investment 3.8 3.7 6.0
Government consumption -1.2 -0.2 0.1
External TradeExports 6.7 4.9 7.5
Imports 4.9 4.3 6.6
CPI inflation 3.1 2.1 2.1Unemployment rate (%) 9.0 8.3 7.8Federal Balance (% of GDP) -8 .8 -7.4 -5.4Federal Funds Rate (%)* 0.1 0.1 0.1*annual average
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2011 2012
Private spending Govt spending GFCF Inventories Net exports
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international economic outlook - march 2012
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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0
20
40
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Average duration of unemployment (weeks)
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international economic outlook - march 2012
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international economic outlook - september 2012
$250 , 1.5% GDP,
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-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13
CBI forecast
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international economic outlook - september 2012
13
J m wh
mky h , wh h
wh v m h w
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wy m m m
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JapanCBI Japan forecast
Japan gdp (q/q annualised, %)
12mth% unless otherwise stated 2011 2012 2013Growth and consumptionReal GDP -0.7 2.8 1.9
Household consumption 0.1 2.6 1.0Fixed investment 0.7 4.1 3.1
Government consumption 1.9 1.8 0.0
External TradeExports -0.2 5.1 7.3
Imports 5.9 7.4 5.8
CPI inflation, excl. energy -0.7 0.0 0.2Unemployment rate (%) 4.6 4.4 4.1Government balance (% of GDP) -9.5 -9.0 -7.7Overnight Call Rate (%)* 0.1 0.1 0.1*annual average
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2005 20 06 2007 2008 20 09 2010 2011 2012
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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C m ud l,
lbl vm mpud
k dm du. Hv,
xp pk up d
d , ff pvu
m pl l kk d
mplm ud vm
uu b. Hv,
uxpdl pld ld uld
mp u u
m bl C m.
Growth in China continues to slow...C m ud l m, GDP
l u Q2 ( 7.6%). R
d u ld ud Q3
bl, dul pdu ll Auu (9.0%
) l M 2009, bd b
k Auu muu PMI.
...compounded by a deteriorating externalenvironmentS lbl d mpud C dm
ld. Gd xp b ju 2.7%
Auu, ll bl dubl-d v
p dd. Mu b d ll xp
EU (d b 12.7% Auu), bu mj
d p v l kd. A u d
lbl m uld mp C d,
uld dp u.
But pro-growth policy measures shouldensure a pick-up later this yearHv, xp pk up b d
, pvu m mulu b d
u. I dd, Nl Dvlpm d Rm
Cmm (NDRC) l ppvd Rmb1
uu pd (ud 2% GDP). Wl
b ll dbd mulu pk, d
m ll b lld u v vl ,
um d pmm v C pp.
I l dd dbl mu m mbu pd
um m ll vm,
v ud pj. Au
lkl m ud mul m d
ldp l ; xp
7.8% 2012, ll bv vm
(7.5%). T l l uul,
u bl C m.
However, focus must remain on rebalancingNl, k m pll m pldld u ll u m
bl, .. m v-l vm d
xp d m ubl dm dv
, u um pd. F xmpl, ld
um vm,
C ll b mpd ll mb
dp upp xp. Wl uld pv
uppv -m, uld l
xb mbl bul up .
ChinaCBI China forecast
China GDP growth (y/y%)
12mth% unless otherwise stated 2011 2012 2013Growth and consumptionReal GDP 9.3 7.8 8.5
Household consumption 8.5 8.9 9.0Fixed investment 9.2 8.2 8.0
Government consumption 9.4 9.9 9.5
External TradeExports 3.9 5.2 7.6
Imports 2.7 5.5 9.4
CPI inflation 5.4 3.2 3.2Unemploymen t rate (%) 4.1 4.0 4.0Government balance (% of GDP) 0.1 -1.4 -1.0Policy rate (%)* 6.56 5.64 5.07*end year
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
20 02 2 00 3 2 004 2 00 5 20 06 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 00 9 20 10 2 01 1 20 12
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international economic outlook - september 2012
15
Whl I GDP gwh k
gll h q 2012, h
l h gg
whh h lww h
ll . I h h ll
gwh, h h ll
l , h hgh
l bl l .
A b gg l h
l q I lg-
l gwh.
Has Indias slowdown bottomed out?Whl I GDP gwh k hgh Q2 2012 ( 5.5%
g, 5.3% h q), h
bkw h w ll g. Gwh
bh g g w (0.2%
0.1%), whl gwh h
( 6.9%), g lw x 2002.
S b x
, l l hw lg
l gwh ( 4.0%).
Th l g g
g h h b h gwh
bh x bg b
bg glbl , wh h l h
b ll .
Little room for further policy easingShl lw h, I h ll
llw h h j EME b g
l. Il bl hgh (
9.9% Jl), kg h lkl.
I, h l bk l h
l . A wk l
l l l g g.
Th, whl w x h k- gwh
gll h glbl gh, l
ll bk wk
h lg w k h .
Structural issues raise questions overIndias long-term potential growthS h w k b
h h l h I glbl g.
W w Jl hghlgh h g
I kg ,
lkl h b w Q3. Pll
g k h h b fi
l lggh gwh
fix Q2 (0.7%). Hw, h h b
g h g, wh h g g
h l FDI g h
l (h g l l b).
Hw, h l :
h l w l g
l 2011, l h g bkk
hl . A l, q
g I lg- l gwh,
bl k wh Ch, l.
IndiaCBI India forecast
India GDP and private consumption (y/y%)
12h% l hw 2011 2012 2013Growth and consumptionRl GDP 7.5 5.3 6.7
Hhl 5.3 4.9 7.9Fx 3.6 -2.7 5.9
G 7.6 5.7 5.6
External TradeEx 19.2 11.3 4.3
I 22.4 3.0 9.9
CPI inflation 8.9 9.0 6.1Unemployment rate (%) 8.0 8.1 8.1Government balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -5.3 -4.9Policy rate (%)* 8.5 8.4 7.5*
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Private consumption
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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Brazils slowdown looks to be bottoming outTh nv gn h h wdwn n B
bmng . Wh ggh, GDP gwh pkd p n
ny-djd qy b 0.4% n h nd
qh n y. Th hv bn m h
pv gn n hn, wh nd pdn ng
h nd mnh nnng n Jy (by 0.3%), ng
m 2012.
Th ff n fi m pp dm
dmnd pp b dng hgh. F xmp,
nmn m vh ngy n Jn (13.3%
SA), wng h mpmnn x bk n
ph. Th gvnmn ny nnnd
$66bn m pkg b n nvmn,
gy hgh nn h pv . Gvn h
p n h bn mj bnk B
gwh, h nnnmn ngng, hgh m
nny mn v h ffiny h
mpmnn.
Th m, mbnd wh h ggd mp
v n , hd pp gwh n h
n m. Hwv, h bd p n nflny
p ky, dy byd by gh b mk
ndn. A wh m h mgng nm, B
vnb h wk gb nvnmn, whh h
dy bn bng dwn n xp gwh nd nd
p.
BrazilCBI Brazil forecast
RussiaRussian growth likely to soften in H2 2012R nmy h mnnd dy gwh n h fi
h h y, wh y m hwng 4.0% y-n
-y n GDP n Q2. A g p h n ngh n
gwh h m m nm pndng, whh h n
n vg nd 6.6% n md-2010. Spndng
h bn ndpnnd by b gwh n h b
mk, wh h nmpymn ny d w.
Lkng hd, m dn n gwh n ky. R
vnb dvpmn n h En, nd h
pp nd n wd ngy p wd
dp xp vn. Fhm, nfln ky
pk p n H2 2012, dyd n hng, pb
np nd y p m n ff. Indd, CPI
nfln jmpd n Jy (m 4.3% 5.6% n y g),
dvn by hp n hng & , nd h
n Ag ( 5.9%).
Sng p d d m h n ngh
n nm pndng, by ng n nm
nm. Indd, y-n-y gwh n d
mwh n Jy ( 5.1%, h w n Jny 2011).
Anh ky dvpmn R jnng h Wd
Td Ognn h nd Ag. Fm ng-m
ppv, h hd b nm pph
Wd Bnk h md n ddn $49bn y (
3% GDP) h nmy n h n-m, ng $162bn
n h mp n h nvmn m d n.
CBI Russia forecast
12mth% unless otherwise stated 2011 2012 2013Growth and consumptionReal GDP 2.7 2.4 5.0
Household consumption 4.1 3.9 5.5
Fixed investment 4.7 -0.6 8.7
Government consumption 1.9 3.9 3.7
External TradeExports 4.5 9.3 7.1
Imports 9.8 6.4 10.1
CPI inflation 6.6 5.4 6.1Unemploymen t rate (%) 6.0 5.7 5.7Government balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -1.6 -1.3Policy rate (%)* 11.0 7.5 9.1*end year
12mth% unless otherwise stated 2011 2012 2013Growth and consumptionReal GDP 4.3 4.0 3.0
Household consumption 6.7 4.9 4.3
Fixed investment 8.0 8.2 5.3
Government consumption 1.5 -0.9 1.7
External TradeExports 0.4 2.4 3.0
Imports 20.3 11.6 7.8
CPI inflation 8.4 5.5 7.4Unemploymen t rate (%) 6.6 5.7 5.5Government balance (% of GDP) 2.1 -1.0 -0.7Policy rate (%)* 8.0 8.0 8.7*end year
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F v k gfi , k f .W g v, w k
x g
w . Hwv, g- f
j g j g .
I , f f
v k , v gwg (w,
, v ) v q. A
k k f g .
Food prices have risen...Ov , w USw
Mw w w g 50
v, g f f . S
f J, f 40% (g w
g f $8.49 gg f Ag),
f w 30%. T
ggg f f ,
v 2008- g f .
...which could have a much broader impacton other industriesT , w
f g . T f
w w f, w
f vk f, , f, . A
g f US ( 40%)
f . Gv US w q
f ,
g f , w w v w-
g . T
f
xg g g v f
w.
Oil prices are also picking up again...Af fg k w A J, v
g g, v
v $100 Ag. O
g, g fl ,
f EU US I f
gg f J. T w
I g g, gk x v
I g w k. I , I
v ff S f Hz,
k ww g f k. T , f
f k j g, gv
S g f 20% f g .
reflecting supply shortagesT I v ff
Global issues
Food prices ($/bushel, may 2012=100) Brent crude oil prices ($/barrel)
Commodities: Food and oil pricesthe only way is up?
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug80
90
100
110
120
130
140
May Jun Jul Aug
C orn Soy ab ea ns W hea t
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international economic outlook - september 2012
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w . D f US Eg If
A (EIA) w g f I
J J ( 2.8 ).
Ov, G S ff f
v v 1.4 / f
k. F, k
f w: S A w
g g g
v v 30 w OPEC (
f j ) w. F w
k g x f
g ( g ),
g ffi f ff.
Rising commodity prices present a furtherrisk to the outlookIf , f
g v g v
: g g f fi
g fi, g w
fl, g .
T f g g gw
gfi: IMF 10%
v ff 0.2% f g gw
fi f . C w g f ,
g. Egg
v g f , gv w
g
f; 2008 w g vg w.
...but recent rises appear temporaryT ff g
k f
.
F k k g
2008, gv v
fw . P f k
w, w
f . Uw f
g f x, f
f f w g
gw, xv, .
Sg v v
f f
w , wkg fl .
D k f gg
w . F f EIA w
2013.
F, v f
v w. I k
ff S f Hz, gv w
f w, w
g g . B v ,
g f j g g
f ; S A UAE v
ffv S.
and demand pressures remain subduedR f v v
. D f , gv
g gw . F f-
, g
k g f v
, w w f
. F x, w kg v f
, fi k k
f US.
Ev f g
, j g, w
k g . M v
g w f 2012, v
w gw C, w g .
However, short-term trends mask longer-term price volatilityI -, f, f
k . B kg g-
v, g w
x g ,
g f gg w
, ; x f
w q v; f
ff g
v.
Metals prices (January 2012=100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep
Aluminium Copper Tin Nickel
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international economic outlook - september 2012
19
Notes
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20
international economic outlook - september 2012
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