120517 strategy day financial targets pdf
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Capital and Financial targets Investor DayIain Mackay Group Finance Director
May 2012
1
Forward-looking statements
This presentation and subsequent discussion may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of the Group. These forward-looking statements represent the Group’s expectations or beliefs concerning future events and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Additional detailed information concerning important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is available in our Annual Report and Accounts 2011. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
This presentation contains non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial information to the most directly comparable measures under GAAP are provided in the ‘Reconciliation of reported and underlying profit before tax’ supplement available at www.hsbc.com.
2
Committed to delivering on our financial targets
On track to exceed Basel 3 capital and liquidity requirements
Maintain dividend growth policy and 50% earnings retention
Target upper end of 9.5-10.5% Core Tier 1 capital range in advance of increased capital requirements
Target lower end of 12-15% RoE range in medium term
RoRWA targets to reflect increasing capital requirements
Focus on ‘growth HSBC’ business returns
Deliver at upper end of USD2.5-to-USD3.5 billion of sustainable cost save target
Target 48-52% CER
Capital1
Returns2
Efficiency3
3
Financial strength
Key Metrics 20111 Q1 20121
(1) On a reported basis unless otherwise stated(2) Dividends in respect of the year/quarter
Returns
Efficiency
Capital &
Liquidity
Core Tier 1 Ratio (%)
Dividends (USD per ordinary share)2
ADR (%)
PBT (USDbn)
RoE (%)
RoRWA (%)
CER (%)
Sustainable Saves Achieved (USDbn)
10.1
0.41
75.0
21.9
10.9
1.9
57.5
0.9
10.4
0.09
74.8
4.3
6.4
1.4
63.9
0.3
CER (%) (underlying) 61.0 55.5
1
2
3
4
Capital generation through the cycle
2011 Core Tier 1 Capital
USDbn
Profit2
Core Tier 1 Ratio 9.4
(1) Capital generation is calculated as profit attributable to shareholders excluding changes in fair value on own debt related to credit spread changes (net of tax), less declared dividends net of scrip (2) Profit attributable to shareholders excluding changes in fair value on own debt related to credit spread changes (net of tax)(3) Dividends declared
1.88.7
9.46.3
Q1 2012
116.1106.3
201120102009
1
122.5
Gross Dividends3
Scrip
10.2
5.6
1.7
10.5
13.2
6.4
2.5
10.1
14.0
7.5
2.2
10.4
4.5
2.7
n/a
126.9
Capital Generation1
5
(0.8)(1.1) 0.90.5
10.4
0.1
10.1(0.3)
9.4
10.30.20.2
Basel 3 Q4 20183
8.3
Simulated effect of full Basel 3 rules on HSBC 1Q 2012 Core Tier 1 capital ratio exclusive of future profit or business growth
1
Core/Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio1,2
(1) No capital generation, no business growth included(2) Based on current accounting rules(3) March 2012 position after strategic disposals and certain management actions on expected 2018 regulatory basis
Early implementation: Securitisation at 1250% Reversal of tax credit for
expected losses
Change in treatment for deferred tax assets Items above threshold subject to 250% Risk weight Change in treatment of equity exposures
Threshold deductions Restriction on Minority Interests Pension adjustment requirements Restrictions on deferred tax assets
that rely on future profitability AFS gain/ losses Expected loss change
CVA charge Financial correlation Securitisation Free deliveries
CML portfolio run-off
Sale of US cards and branches
CVA mitigation
CML portfolio run-off
GB&M Legacy run-off
Basel 2.5 1Q 2012
Basel 3 RWA impact
Basel 3 capital impact
Strategic disposals
CVA charge
mitigation
Legacy run-off
Basel 3 Q4 2013
RWA impact (phased in)
Capital impact
(phased in)
Legacyrun-off
30 bps
Management actions and run-offCapital/RWA requirements
6
Transition to Basel 3 Common Equity Tier 1 requirements1
1.9
2.5
2.51.9
1.30.6
1.3
0.62.5
Jan 2019
4.5
Jan 2018
10.2
Jan 2015
4.5
4.5
Jan 2014
4.0
4.0
Jan 2013
3.5
3.5
Jan 2012
2.0
2.0
Jan 2011
2.0
2.0
4.5
8.3
Jan 2017
1.3
4.5
1.9
6.4
Jan 2016
0.6
4.5
12.0
Conservation capital buffer
G-SIB surcharge (1-2.5%)
Core Tier 1 minimum
Countercyclical capital buffer (0-2.5%)
1
Required Core/Common Equity Tier 1 ratio, %
(1) Does not include requirements proposed by UK Independent Commission on Banking or the proposed EU debt write-down requirements (‘bail-in’)
ICB, G-SIB, countercyclical buffer, EU Bail-in requirements
Impacts mitigated by: Run-off of residual legacy
businesses Strong capital generation Five filters discipline Self-funded business growth
Beyond 2013: continued regulatory uncertainty
7
50%
15%
Retainedearnings/capital
Variable pay3
Dividends2
35%
Dividends/Earnings usage
2011 pro forma post-tax profits allocation1
1
(1) Attributable profits excluding changes in fair value on own debt related to credit spread changes (net of tax) and before variable pay distributions(2) Inclusive of dividends to holders of other equity instruments and net of scrip issuance (3) Total variable pay pool for 2011 net of tax and portion to be delivered by the award of HSBC shares
50% profit retention Robust subsidiary dividend flow Maintain 40-60% dividend payout ratio Considered levels of variable pay
8
10.99.5
5.1
2009 2010 2011
12 – 15
Target
Lower end of 12-15% RoE expected in the medium term
HSBC return on average ordinary shareholders’ equity
HSBC return on average risk weighted assets (%)
2
1.91.7
0.6
20102009
2.1 – 2.71
Target2011
Percent
Percent
(1) Assuming a core tier 1 ratio of 10.5% (on a transitional Basel 3 basis)
Target returns impacted by evolving regulatory requirements
Returns dependent on degree of market stability
Strategic disposals suppress medium term returns
RoRWA targets reviewed as regulatory requirements evolve
Global Businesses and Regions targeting middle/upper end of RoRWA target ranges in medium term to support 12-15% RoE
9
Focus on building returns in growth businesses
2011 Impact of Legacy Businesses on RoRWA
Percentage points
1,210 132 50 42 986RWAs1,USDbn
2
0.6
2.2
1.6
(0.1)0.1
(1) RWAs as at 31 December 2011
Legacy businesses will be managed down robustly
Redeployment of capital within ‘growth HSBC’ to optimise returns
Capture additional growth through Global Business connectivity
Sustainable cost saves through four programmes
Simplification of HSBCGB&M Legacy
Card and Retail
Services (‘CRS’)
2011 RoRWA(excl. changes in own credit
spread)
US run-off
‘GrowthHSBC’
10
224224
1.6
(1.4)
2.2
(7.2)
2.1
2.2
3.9
3.7
1.6
(1.4)
2.2
0.7
2.3
2.6
3.1
5.3
1.1
2011 RoRWA by Geography and Global Business (‘growth HSBC’)
2011 RoRWA1 by Geography
Percent
(1) Excludes USD3.9bn change in fair value on own debt related to credit spread changes (2) RWAs as at December 2011. RWAs are non-additive across geographical regions due to market risk diversification effects within the Group(3) Europe includes the Group’s head office costs, intra HSBC recharges and the total impact of the UK bank levy(4) Main items reported in other are the UK bank levy, unallocated investment activities, and certain property related activities. It also includes net interest earned on free
capital held centrally, operating costs incurred by the head office operations in providing stewardship and central management services to HSBC, and costs incurred by the Group Services Centres and Shared Services Organisations and associated recoveries.
2
Europe3
North America
Latin America
MENA
Rest ofAsia Pacific
Hong Kong
GB&M
CMB
GPB
RBWM106
RWAs2, USDbn
279
59
144
986
102
2011 RoRWA1 by Global Business
Percent
2.1 to 2.7
‘Growth HSBC’
Other4
‘Growth HSBC’
309
Total 1,210
178
22
373
986
383
30
1,210Total
2.1 to 2.7
Run-off and CRS Run-off and CRS
11
0.30.5
0.3
(0.3)
(0.3)
2011 and 1Q 2012 impacted by a number of notable items
Operating Expenses – 4Q 2011 to 1Q 2012
USDbn
3
Net increase Q on Q of USD0.2bn
1Q 12 Expenses
10.4
Other
(0.3)
1Q 12 customer redress
(0.4)
4Q 11 customer redress
1Q 12 restructuring
4Q 11 restructuring
4Q 11 US mortgage
foreclosure & servicing
costs
4Q 11UK bank
levy
4Q 11 Expenses
11.2
(0.6)
1Q 12 sustainable
saves
Net reduction Q on Q of USD0.1bn
12
Quarterly progression in operating expenses and FTE
Operating Expenses1 and FTE
USDbn; FTE
3
1.50.7 0.8
285288294296299
10.4
Q1 2012
11.2
9.7
Q3 2011
9.6
9.4
0.2
Q2 2011
9.8
9.8
(0.0)
Q1 2011
10.1
9.5 9.6
Q4 2011
Notable Items, USDbn2Operating Expenses excl. notable items, USDbnFTE, 000’s
(1) At constant currency(2) Notable cost items are as presented on page 29 on the 2011 Annual Report and Accounts
13
Robust revenue base: over 90% of income from reliable revenue streams
Other variable income
Rates and Credit
GPB
BSM
Global Banking
Global Markets(ex Rates and Credit)
CMB NII and NFI
RBWM NII and NFI 48
8
7
6
5
2
5
19
(3)
(20)
3
(42)
n.a.
11
8
9 Reliable Revenue
Variable Revenue
Total Net Operating Income1, 2011 USDbn
Minimum and Maximum 2009 – 2011
% Share Net Operating Income1
3
CAGR %
93
32.3
14.2
6.4
5.4
3.5
3.3
1.7
2009-2011 2009-2011 (average)
72.3
5.5
Total(1) Before loan impairment charges and credit risk provisions
14
3
Delivering sustainable cost saves & targeted revenue growth achieves CER in 48-52% range
Operating Expense drivers, USDbn
Operating Income drivers, USDbn
Continuous progress: 48-52% CER…..a KPI
(1) 2011 underlying revenue items of USD4.2bn partly offset by USD1.4bn unfavourable movement on the fair value of non qualifying hedges (NQHs)(2) 2011 revenue/operating expense contribution of Cards and Retail Services only(3) Illustrative effect on future net interest income of an incremental 25 bps parallel rise in all yield curves worldwide at the beginning of each quarter during the 12 months from 1 January 2012(4) Incremental revenues identified for wealth management (USD3.7bn) and Global Business integration (USD1.5bn)
USD41.5
USD72.3 USD(2.8)1 USD(0.5) USD(5.5)2
2011 variability BSM Disposals and run-off
Economic factors
Revenue growth
USD1.63 USD5.24
USD(2.4) USD(1.6-2.6) USD(1.8)2
2011 notable items
Sustainable saves
FVOD NQHs Other
Expected lower annual return of c. USD3.0bn
CRS, US branches
US and GB&M run-off
Policy rates/NII GDP
Wealth management CMB/GBM connectivity Other business growth
Restructuring Customer redress Bank levy Pension credit ..
Target range of USD2.5-3.5 less 2011 saves
Disposals and run-off
CRS, US branches….
US and GB&M run-off
Economic factors
Investment in growth markets
with positive jaws
2011 Net Operating
Income
2011 Operating Expenses
Wage inflation….
15
56
1213
Cost growth focused on growth markets with positive jaws
Underlying Expense and Revenue Growth (2010 to 2011)
Percent
(11)(8)
North AmericaEurope
Developing / Growth markets
Developed markets
Sustained growth with positive jaws in faster growing markets
Latin America
Rest of Asia Pacific
Hong Kong Middle East
Income volatility driving negative jaws
108 7 8
97
Underlying revenue growth
Impact of notable cost items1
CER 63.8% 55.1% 44.5% 45.2%
CER 80.1% 59.3%
5 2 3
58
3
(1) Notable cost items are as presented on page 29 on the 2011 Annual Report and Accounts
16
Key messages
On track to exceed Basel 3 capital and liquidity requirements
Maintain dividend growth policy and 50% earnings retention
Target upper end of 9.5-10.5% Core Tier 1 capital range in advance of increased capital requirements
Target lower end of 12-15% RoE range in medium term
RoRWA targets to reflect increasing capital requirements
Focus on ‘growth HSBC’ business returns
Deliver at upper end of USD2.5-to-USD3.5 billion of sustainable cost save target
Target 48-52% CER
Capital1
Returns2
Efficiency3
17
Definitions (1/2)
Changes in fair value due to movements in own credit spread on long-term debt issuedFVOD
The metric, return on risk weighted assets (‘RoRWA’), is defined as profit before tax divided by average risk weighted assets (‘RWAs’). RWAs have been calculated using FSA rules for the 2009, 2010 and 2011 metrics. In all cases, RWAs or financial metrics based on RWAs for geographical segments or Global Businesses include associates, are on a third party basis and exclude intra- HSBC exposures.
RoRWA
Capital Generation is defined as profit attributable to shareholders’ of the parent company excluding changes in fair value of own debt related to credit spread changes (net of tax), less dividends declared net of scrip dividends.
Capital Generation
Please refer to the 2011 Annual Report and Accounts for the definition of terms used in this presentation. Set out below, are the definitions of terms not defined in the 2011 Annual Report and Accounts.
Europe geographic segment includes the Group’s head office costs, intra-HSBC recharges and the total impact of the UK bank levy
Europe
‘Other’ contains the full impact of the bank levy, the results of certain property transactions, unallocated investment activities, centrally held investment companies, movements in the fair value of own debt, central support and functional costs with associated recoveries, HSBC’s holding company and financing operations.
Other Global Business
18
Definitions (2/2)
Card and Retail Services.CRS
Run-off includes Legacy Credit in GB&M and North America consumer lending and mortgage run-off portfolios.
Run-off
The term ‘Growth HSBC’ is used in an analysis of HSBC’s results, showing the effect of disposals and run-off portfolios separately from the rest of the Group. Refer to the footnotes on slide 21 of the Group Strategy presentation and slide 10 of the Capital and Financial Targets presentation for more details
Growth HSBC
Small markets are markets where HSBC has profitable scale and/or focussed operations, subscale markets foreseen for exit and representative offices.
Small markets
Network markets are further HSBC markets with high relevance for international connectivity.Network markets
Priority growth markets are Australia, Mainland China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, France, Germany Switzerland, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Canada, United States of America, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.
Priority growth markets
The term ‘Home markets’ refers to our principal existing markets in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom.
Home markets