(114287633) romania country report
TRANSCRIPT
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BTI 2012 | Romania Country Report
Status Index 1-10 8.17
# 16 of
Political Transformation 1-10 8.55 1! of 128
"conomic Transformation 1-10 #.#$ 1$ of 128
Management Index 1-10 6.3
5
# 2% of
128
scale& 1 'lo(est) to 10 '*i+*est) score ran, tren
T*is report is part of t*e Bertelsmann tiftun+/s Transformation Ine 'BTI)
2012. T*e BTI is a +loal assessment of transition processes in (*ic* t*e
state of emocracy an mar,et economy as (ell as t*e uality of political
mana+ement in 128 transformation an e3elopin+ countries are e3aluate.
4ore on t*e BTI at * tt p & ( ( (.t i-p r o ec t. o r+
Please cite as follo(s& Bertelsmann tiftun+7 BTI 2012 Romania Country
Report. 9:terslo*& Bertelsmann tiftun+7 2012.
; 2012 Bertelsmann tiftun+7 9:terslo*
http://www.bti-project.org/http://www.bti-project.org/ -
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BTI 2012 | Romania2
Key Indicators
Population mn. 21 142
Pop. +ro(t*1 ?
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BTI 2012 | Romania8
El crecimiento del P3B cay# del :9 al =9 , y el consumo interno y los in"resos *iscales se redu+o
sustancialmente .
Por lo tanto , las opciones del "obierno se han reducido < De repente , los "obiernos utili)an para repartir
privile"ios de entrada a la clientela y hacer populistas "estos pre 7 electorales a los principales "rupos
interesados tuvieron que en*rentar decisiones di*ciles entre el "asto y hacer las medidas de austeridad
inmediatas para restablecer el equilibrio *iscal, mientras se empu+a a trav$s de lar"o estrate"ias a lar"o pla)o
para la recuperaci#n econ#mica .
El espectro de *iesta en Rumania lo"r# desarrollar ms all de la vie+a dicotoma de post7 comunistas y laoposici#n democrtica , y los lderes del partido de las personas y su entorno se volvi# menos importante que
el per*il socioecon#mico y una mayor pertinencia social de las partes. %in embar"o , la crisis no lo"r#
impulsar a las partes a la acci#n con+unta y la responsabilidad .
6 pesar de las decisiones polticas de la poblaci#n eran bastante estables , los lderes polticos del PD( y la
politiquera pre*erido P%D y el partido los intereses de la elaboraci#n de una estrate"ia nacional de crisis.
Durante el apo"eo de la crisis , Rumania *ue "obernada por una coalici#n P(D 7P%D caracteri)ado por las
luchas internas , un "obierno en minora y un d$bil "obierno interino . >o hubo casos de in+erencia poltica
de mano dura del presidente , la politi)aci#n de los tribunales constitucionales y el uso de todos los
instrumentos polticos permitidos por la onstituci#n 7 y al"unos otros
7 Para el en"randecimiento de las propias partes. Esto proporcion# ni la "esti#n de crisis tan necesaria ni una
me+ora en el mnimo hist#rico de la con*ian)a p-blica en la poltica. En este contexto , es mila"roso que
partidos extremistas no "anaron terreno.
En 2 se llev# a ayuda *inanciera , orientaci#n sustancial de poltica y presi#n por parte de las
instituciones *inancieras internacionales y de la /ni#n Europea para hacer el cambio de rumbo del "obierno
rumano y promul"ar polticas serias para *renar la corrupci#n , re*ormar el poder +udicial y la administraci#n
y la adopci#n de al"unas medidas de austeridad impopulares . 4isi#n poltica , el cora+e y la responsabilidad
eran no peque;a parte inducida por los socios externos y por una sociedad civil cada ve) ms *irme .
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BTI 2012 | Romania?
6 pesar de una estrate"ia de avance despu$s de la toma del poder comunista en !?@ 7 !?: , el sistema
poltico de pos"uerra ha perpetuado al"unos de los d$*icits de la $poca anterior a la "uerra , especialmente
durante la -ltima d$cada del r$"imen de >icolae eausescu . /na ve) ms , un modelo externo de la
moderni)aci#n se in+ert# en una realidad rumana. (as elites polticas continuaron a percibir el Estado y el
aparato burocrtico como de su propiedad y no como un instrumento de poltica. Esto dio como resultado el
nepotismo rampante, estatismo y las re*ormas simuladas , incluso en el ms liberal d$cada si"uiente
!A@ . 6 principios de != , la combinaci#n de una poltica exterior aut#noma y m$todos estalinistas a la
moderni)aci#n y el control interno ha se"uido su curso , lo que resulta en la movili)aci#n nacionalista y ladecadencia econ#mica.
>o hubo oposici#n abierta e in*luyente , en parte porque el clan eausescu monopoli)# movili)aci#n
nacional &ista ' y reprimi# cualquier disidencia or"ani)ada o voces independientes dentro del partido. (a
revoluci#n de !=! *ue esencialmente una lucha de poder entre los di*erentes se"mentos de la nomenclatura
ms que el comien)o prometedor de una trans*ormaci#n poltica. Por lo tanto , a pesar de Rumania *ue el
-nico pas de Europa entral y del Este para presenciar un *inal violento hacia el comunismo , el resultado
neto *ue "eneralmente considerado como ms de una 5revoluci#n de palacio5 en la nomenclatura de una
clara ruptura con el pasado. 6l ser altamente descon*iados de la economa de mercado y la democracia
pluralista , y *rente a al"unas claras desventa+as en comparaci#n con la mayora de los otros pases europeos,
la /E y Estados adherentes del Este , Rumania cada ve) ms se qued# atrs en el proceso de re*orma.
uando la oposici#n democrtica , *inalmente, "an# las elecciones presidenciales y parlamentarias en
!!A , las expectativas eran elevados. El nuevo "obierno de centro7derecha del presidente
onstantinescu y la onvenci#n Dem#crata de Rumania & DR ' inici# la reestructuraci#n de la industria
pesada y la minera , los a"u+eros ne"ros econ#micos liquidados , consolidaron el sistema bancario, la
privati)aci#n de varias "randes empresas de propiedad estatal, la liberali)aci#n de la mayora de los precios
de los insumos y establecieron la plena convertibilidad de la Rumania de moneda. 6 medida que los distintos
"obiernos DR diri"idas carecan de coordinaci#n poltica y no lo"raron resolver sus di*erencias polticas
internas , que perdi# la presidencia y la mayora en el Parlamento en 2. Este perodo tuvo un me+or
re"istro de la dinmica de re*orma de la e+ecuci#n real. 3on 3liescu *ue ele"ido &de nuevo ' como presidente y
un "obierno minoritario del P%D liderado por 6drian >astase, entr# en la o*icina con el apoyo de la /D1R .
omo resultado , aquellos que haban tomado el poder tras la cada de eausescu en la revoluci#n de
diciembre !=! estaban de vuelta en la o*icina . (a poltica de a*icionado del presidente onstantinescu y la
onvenci#n Dem#crata de centro7derecha &!!A 7 2' cre# la re*orma *ati"a y poltica desencanto entre el
electorado . (a impresi#n "eneral de *racaso de la poltica era s#lo parcialmente +usti*icada , pero a;ade a la
incertidumbre extrema y las privaciones entre los que perdieron en las re*ormas.
1ientras que muchos polticos de la primera y se"unda presidencia 3liescu &!! 7 !!A' volvieron al poder
5 ms triste y ms sabio 5 en 2 despu$s de cuatro a;os en la oposici#n , la mayora de los partidos
polticos cuentan ahora con la "esti#n de ms +oven , por primera ve) desde la revoluci#n de diciembre de
!=!. (a estabilidad del sistema poltico , sin embar"o, ha sido en"a;osa y est basado en el control astuto y
clientelismo en lu"ar de una cultura constructiva de elaboraci#n de polticas. Re*ormas simuladas , estatismo
, la ret#rica nacionalista y distinciones borrosas entre el Estado , los partidos y el sector privado si"uen
siendo
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BTI 2012 | Romania@
muy presente en Rumania. En "eneral , el nuevo "obierno de i)quierda ha hecho me+or que la mayora de los
analistas predicen , probablemente debido a que las expectativas populares se encontraban en su punto ms
ba+o de todos los tiempos y porque el proceso de inte"raci#n de la /E prest# asistencia muy necesaria , as
como el marco bsico y los incentivos para la re*orma. (a "esti#n de los equilibrios macroecon#micos *ue
especialmente 7 y hasta cierto punto sorprendente 7 (as prestaciones de re 7 etiquetado P%D , y un buen
control sobre el "asto p-blico abandon# el pas con muy ba+o d$*icit a *inales de 2? . Tambi$n lo"raronconcluir todos los captulos del acervo ne"ociados con la /ni#n Europea , aunque con notables se;ales de
alerta sobre el poder +udicial, la lucha contra la corrupci#n y la preparaci#n institucional para los *ondos de
la /E.
(as re*ormas econ#micas de Rumana su*rieron al"unas condiciones marco que limitan , incluida la "esti#n
errtica y vacilante apoyo popular para la trans*ormaci#n econ#mica y poltica. El tama;o de la economa
nacional y el predominio de una a"ricultura poco mecani)ada, por una parte , y deteriorado , los comple+os
industriales obsoletas , por otra parte , han hecho de la trans*ormaci#n particularmente di*cil. eausescu
in*li"ido mucho da;o en su b-squeda de la autarqua , mediante el pa"o de la deuda externa a costa del
consumo interno y la inversi#n en bienes de equipo .
(a mayora de los "obiernos han sido reacios a poner en marcha re*ormas que impondran di*icultades
temporales y con ello hacerlos impopulares , mientras que el !!A 7 2 DR coalici#n y la
2 los "obiernos se destacan como excepciones.
(a primera d$cada de la transici#n *ue parali)ado por dudas sobre la liberali)aci#n de precios y la reducci#n
del empleo, la producci#n de los le"ados de mal cr$dito, los retrasos en la privati)aci#n a "ran escala y el
desempleo oculto. (os cambios de "obierno y la ausencia de un plan coherente con su*iciente apoyo p-blico
y poltico se han traducido en polticas trans*ormadoras errticas , especialmente con respecto a la
privati)aci#n y sus leyes en constante cambio y los marcos institucionales. Esto ha hecho que tanto la
poblaci#n rumana y los inversores internacionales extremadamente cauto. En "eneral, las dudas sobre la
participaci#n en una pro*unda trans*ormaci#n ha sido autodestructiva . (os recursos crticos de las polticas
constructivas se han a"otado por la p$rdida del impulso inicial y la *alta de competitividad para la inversi#n
occidental en el anti"uo bloque del Este. inalmente , la crisis de
2! 7 2 lo"r# me+orar la disciplina de re*orma en Bucarest.
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BTI 2012 | RomaniaA
"l BTI comina el anHlisis e teto y e3aluaciones numricas. @a puntuaciGn ecaacuestiGn se proporciona por eao e su respecti3o tFtulo. @a escala 3a e 10
'meor) a 1 'peor).
"stao e TransformaciGn
I. transformaciGn polFtica
1 " Statenesspre+unta
puntuaciGn
El monopolio del Estado sobre el uso de la *uer)a es indiscutible en todo el
territorio. Discurso autonomista y secesionista entre al"unos representantes de la
minora h-n"ara ha entrado en el debate poltico, pero no representa una amena)a
para la soberana del Estado. El extremista Partido vico 0-n"aro &P0' si"ue
siendo una *uer)a poltica mar"inal ya que la mayora de los rumanos h-n"aros
voto para el establecimiento /D1R.
"l monopolio
el uso e la
fuerJa
10
Por tradici#n hist#rica , el concepto rumano del estado7naci#n se de*ine con *uer)a en
t$rminos de ori"en $tnico . (a onstituci#n rumana de*ine la naci#n en t$rminos
$tnicos & 5 la soberana nacional reside en el pueblo rumano 5' y o*rece las "arantas
normales del constitucionalismo liberal. (os intentos de introducir un concepto cvico
de identidad que incluye la *uerte h-n"aro y minoras romanes hasta ahora han
*racasado en encontrar la aceptaci#n ms all de los textos le"ales *ormales . (a
inte"raci#n de los romanes , en particular, se ve obstaculi)ada por los estereotipos
"enerali)ados y prcticas discriminatorias. %oporte para nacionalista extremista,
abiertamente partidos y movimientos antisemitas y xen#*obos han ido disminuyendo
desde hace al"unos a;os &por e+emplo , los extremistas , xen#*obas y antisemitas
Partido de la Cran Rumania & PR1 ' recibi# 8 9 de los votos en las elecciones de
2? , pero s#lo 8 9 y nin"-n esca;o en las elecciones parlamentarias de 2= ' . (a
evidencia de la vida p-blica y la ret#rica poltica , sin embar"o, indica que las
percepciones sociales de la ciudadana puede estar *uera de sintona con las
estipulaciones constitucionales que "aranti)an los derechos civiles y que las actitudes
discriminatorias arrai"adas a-n persisten en la sociedad.
%in embar"o, la onstituci#n del Estado y la ciudadana o*icial no son directamente
desa*iados, y el apoyo a los extremistas polticos absolutos parece estar
disminuyendo< El PR1 lo"r# lle"ar a la se"unda vuelta de las elecciones
presidenciales de 2, pero en el 2= elecciones parlamentarias tanto en el PR1
y el partido *ascista de >ueva Ceneraci#n Dem#crata ristiana &P>CD' no pudo
pasar el umbral del @9. (a Ret#rica Poltica y la prctica cotidiana lo hacen, sin
embar"o, se desvan sustancialmente de conceptos inclusivistas de la naci#n y los
derechos civiles. 6 pesar de esto, hay que se;alar que el /1DR ha desempe;ado un
papel relativamente importante y estable en la poltica rumana.
la ientiael "stao
$
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BTI 2012 | Romania:
Desde el *in del comunismo, la 3"lesia rtodoxa de Rumania se ha mantenidoindependiente de la poltica, y el do"ma reli"ioso no ha tenido un impacto en la
poltica de los Estados. (as leyes sobre el re"istro contin-an siendo obstculos para
denominaciones menores, al i"ual que la distinci#n del "obierno entre las i"lesias
reconocidas y no reconocidas. El n-mero de incidentes en los que la inter*erencia se
produce a pesar de la libertad "aranti)ada por la onstituci#n de la reli"i#n parece
estardisminuyendo.o *ay
interferencia e
los o+mas
reli+iosos
$
Rumania ha re*ormado sus instituciones estatales desde !=! con el aumento de la
asistencia y orientaci#n de la /E. (as estructuras administrativas y la asi"naci#n
de recursos abarcan todo el pas. El proceso de adhesi#n a la /E y la situaci#n de
Rumana como miembro de la /E a partir de 2: tienen la administraci#n bsicaconsolidarse y las *unciones del Estado en todo el pas. De*iciencias locales se
mantienen, pero la cobertura y la calidad est me+orando
"radualmente
.aministraci
Gn Hsica
1
0
2 " artici$aci%n o&'tica
(as elecciones en el perodo ob+eto de examen comprenden las elecciones
parlamentarias en noviembre de 2= , las elecciones europeas en +unio de
2! y las elecciones presidenciales en noviembre de 2! & "an# por un
estrecho mar"en por el Basescu corresponde ' . Todos *ueron reportados como
libres y +ustas, pero los in*ormes sobre el *raude , las campa;as y la
manipulaci#n poco $tica , as como incriminaciones mutuas eran per+udiciales
para la situaci#n de las instituciones democrticas . (a radio y la ses"ada
cobertura televisiva de varias elecciones se critic# una ve) ms. bviamente ,
la 6utoridad Electoral Permanente reci$n creado no como un supervisor
independiente. (as elecciones presidenciales , en particular, se determinaron
por los escndalos y la polari)aci#n . %in embar"o , el hecho de que las
elecciones y los procesos de *ormaci#n de coaliciones posteriores
*uncionaban sin ries"os que se presentan en el sistema de representaci#n
democrtica muestra que el panorama poltico rumano se ha consolidado y los
procedimientos democrticos han sido aceptadas , a pesar de todo el da;o
causado a la con*ian)a p-blica en poltica. >o hay restricciones relevantes de
+ure al su*ra"io , y nin"-n "rupo se les impide la e+ecuci#n de sus derechos
electorales pasivos o activos . %#lo los altos umbrales para *iestas & @ 9' y de
alian)as polticas & = 9 7 9 ' han sido criticadas por ser ses"ada a *avor de
los los principales contendientes , lo que resulta en una p$rdida sustancial de
votos .
@as elecciones liresy 6ustas
$
Democratically elected rulers do have e**ective poFer to "overn. >o political
enclaves exist, althou"h some interest "roups and staGeholders have
disproportionate political in*luence and may be vieFed as possessin" limited veto
poFers. 1ana"ers *rom state and private corporations and trade unions have the
poFer to blocG re*orm processes, meanin" that Romania ranGs hi"h in state capture
indices. Because democratically elected representatives and institutions tend to
"ffecti3e po(er to
+o3ern
$
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bloquean entre s, parte de la responsabilidad por la continuidad y la "obernabilidad se ha despla)ado a
los escalones ms ba+os de la ener"a en el centro &en lu"ar de ser descentrali)ado'. 6dhesi#n a la /E
requiere un alto nivel de poder "ubernamental e*ectiva y la no7 existencia de enclaves de poder de veto.
!! onstituci#n de Rumania "aranti)a las libertades civiles y polticas habituales ,
incluida la libertad de expresi#n , asociaci#n y reuni#n . En la prctica , la asociaci#n
de la sociedad civil y los derechos de monta+e se ven obstaculi)ados por la va
administrativa , y las actividades de los no deseados, las or"ani)aciones no
"ubernamentales crticos estn obstruidas , tanto a nivel local como nacional. (os
partidos polticos y or"anismos "ubernamentales han tratado recientemente de cooptar
o emplear representantes de la sociedad civil, particularmente crticas o las >C . Por
otra parte, tratan de desacreditar a las campa;as de despresti"io reali)adas a trav$s de
medios de comunicaci#n polticamente ses"adas. En 2= se aprob# una ley
retroactiva de las disposiciones poco claras que requieren las asociaciones y
*undaciones que se disuelven si al"uien considera que su nombre censurable. 6unque
la ley *ue modi*icada a principios de 2! , esto es un si"no de la constante presi#n que
los "rupos crticos tienen que vivir en Rumania. 3r#nicamente , los partidos de
oposici#n actualmente parecen ms preocupados que la "obierno limitando la sociedad
civil.
sociaciGn 5
los erec*os emonta6e1
0
(as libertades de opini#n y de prensa son "eneralmente prote"idos
adecuadamente. 6unque la mayora de los medios de comunicaci#n si"uen
teniendo una pre*erencia poltica clara, la cultura de la in*ormaci#n poltica est
cambiando, y la inter*erencia poltica abierta est disminuyendo. En t$rminos de
anlisis en pro*undidad y el inter$s p-blico en la alta poltica, se puede
ar"umentar que la in*ormaci#n poltica se ha deteriorado rpidamente en los
-ltimos a;os.
(as medidas adoptadas no han lo"rado cambiar el hecho bsico de que el
pro*esionalismo periodstico es a menudo recha)ada por los intereses creados y
las a*iliaciones polticas de los propietarios de los medios de comunicaci#n. El
hecho de que varias or"ani)aciones no "ubernamentales clave priori)an la
libertad de prensa y el acceso a la in*ormaci#n indica que no todo est bien en los
medios rumanos. Del mismo modo, el hecho de que el onse+o de De*ensa>acional identi*ica los medios de comunicaci#n como una amena)a a la
se"uridad en su proyecto de estrate"ia de 2 no au"ura nada bueno para la
libertad de los medios de comunicaci#n como un derecho *undamental.
@ierta eepresiGn
8
3 " (stado de )erec*o
(os poderes del Estado en Rumania son independientes, la onstituci#n establece la
separaci#n de poderes y los controles y equilibrios en el sistema poltico. 6l i"ual
que la anterior tira y a*lo+a entre el presidente y el primer ministro cohabitaci#n, el
nuevo remolcador de la "uerra entre el P%D y el PD( ha comprometido seriamente
la separaci#n de poderes, la posici#n aut#noma del Parlamento y la posici#n del
Tribunal onstitucional *uera de la politiquera. Esto es, una ve) ms indicativo de
la *alta de respeto de la $lite poltica de la separaci#n de poderes y el
procedimient
o
democrtico
adecuadocomo un
valor en s
mismo.
onversely,
the political
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equilibrium has contributed to the onstitutional ourt @a separaciGn epoeres
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$
si no se toma una posici#n ms imparcial, apoltico, a veces *allando a *avor de los
partidos en el poder, a veces a *avor de la oposici#n. Por e+emplo, el tribunal *all#en contra de al"unos captulos de la ley de creaci#n de la 6"encia >acional de
3nte"ridad &6>3' en abril de 2 y decret# la pensi#n del @9 redu+o la
inconstitucionalidad en +ulio de 2.
El actual con*licto entre los poderes e+ecutivo y le"islativo , por un lado , y los
poderes de la +udicatura ms de persecuci#n contra la corrupci#n , por otro, ha
amena)ado la independencia del poder +udicial y ha ido en detrimento de la
con*ian)a p-blica. (a re*orma muy tarda de los c#di"os de procedimiento civil y
penal *ue *inalmente decidida por el Parlamento en +unio de 2. %in embar"o ,
la crisis poltica posterior , una ve) ms retrasar la aplicaci#n e*ectiva de las
re*ormas de la /E 7 demandados . El Parlamento ha tomado medidas drsticas
contra la independencia de la 6>3 en la b-squeda de estrate"ias de lucha contra
la corrupci#n desde que la orte onstitucional declar# al"unos de sus
competencias inconstitucional. El poder +udicial es institucionalmente
di*erenciado , pero los procedimientos y otra ve) estn su+etos a modi*icaci#n por
motivos polticos y la politiquera &por e+emplo , las elecciones al conse+o
superior de la ma"istratura ' . En 2!, la elecci#n de un nuevo *iscal "eneral
tambi$n se vio envuelta en la arena poltica. En "eneral , sin embar"o , el poder
+udicial puede ser +u)"ado como ms independiente que antes debido a los altos
*uncionarios de los partidos "obernantes *ueron investi"ados y condenados por
primera ve) . 6dems , los ma"istrados del ms alto nivel *ueron investi"ados 7
otra novedad y una se;al de cambio en la pro*esi#n. %in embar"o, la corrupci#n
de los ma"istrados se mantiene un problema "rave.
.istema 6uicialinepeniente
8
Durin" the period under revieF, politicians in Romania Fere cau"ht betFeen the
priority attached by the public, vocal national >Cs and the European /nion to the
*i"ht a"ainst corruption and their oFn Fariness o* a stron" and independent a"ency.
onsequently, anti7corruption o*ten *eatured in political pro"rams and speeches, but
the onstitutional ourt and parliament Fere quicG to curb the competencies o* the
>ational 6nti7orruption Directorate &restored under pressure *rom the European
ommission' and the 6>3. These institutions nevertheless developed public trust
and a pro*essional ethos o* their oFn as Fell as a substantial tracG record in dealin"
Fith cases o* corruption and abuse o* public o**ice. Pro"ress in this respect seems
structural, but political bacGin" remains hal*7hearted at best. onversely, media
accusations o* corruption by the main parties are detrimental to the credibility o*
anti7corruption a"ency, but also indicative o* the increasin" authority and reach o*
these institutions in the political sphere.
Prosecution of
office ause
#
3n line Fith E/ norms, all *ormal le"al "uarantees *or a *air process *or equal
treatment and non7discrimination le"islation are in place. 0oFever, E/ monitors
have critici)ed the arbitrariness and incoherence o* court verdicts and the bacGlo" o*
court cases. 0uman ri"hts or"ani)ations, moreover, continue to report cases o*, *or
example, police violation o* basic human ri"hts and "enerally inhuman and
de"radin" treatment in Romanian penitentiaries. 6s underlined by E/ reportin",
Ci3il ri+*ts
$
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Roma communities continue to su**er *rom various *orms o* social and ethnic
discrimination.
4 " Sta+i&ity o, )emocratic Institutions
The ability o* democratic institutions &"overnment, president and parliament' to
ForG to"ether has been severely compromised. 3n the immediate a*termath o* E/
accession, politicGin" produced embarrassin" deadlocGs in decision7maGin" and
re*orm strate"ies. (ater in the period under revieF, the enmity betFeen the PD(
president and the competin" P%D brou"ht le"islation to a "rindin" halt. Despite the
impact o* the "lobal economic crisis and consistent criticismH"uidance *rom the
European /nion, all ma+or parties *ocused on politicGin" and populist measures
rather than +oint crisis mana"ement and democratic cooperation. The "rand
coalition resultin" *rom the >ovember 2= elections Fas characteri)ed by endless
in*i"htin" and its demise in %eptember 2! resulted in a succession o* caretaGer,
minority and FeaG "overnments unable to deal Fith the crisis and, moreover,
sabota"ed by the other parties throu"h votes o* no7con*idence. Iuite remarGably,
the Eurobarometer 2 indicates that Romania is the E/ country Fith the hi"hest
con*idence amon" citi)ens that the national "overnment &rather than the E/' Fill
solve the economic crisis. ne explanation *or this trust may be *ound in the *act
that despite all obstruction and politicGin", the crisis and E/ pressure have *orced
"overnments to taGe some unpopular decisions &e."., pension cuts' and initiate
ma+or re*orms &e."., education re*orm or the restructurin" o* parliament to
unicameralism by re*erendum in >ovember 2!'.
Performance of
emocratic
institutions
8
6lthou"h political actors do accept the democratic institutions in principle, they are
not above bendin" the democratic principle o* the separation o* poFers or the rules
o* democratic procedure. 6ll relevant political players occasionally resorted to the
abuse o* democratic instruments *or party interests and to the use o* strate"ies o*
doubt*ul democratic quality, ran"in" *rom populist measures, the use o* media
outlets and incriminations that obstructed democratic decision7maGin" to
re*erendums and the abuse o* the onstitutional ourt *or political interests. These
abuses, hoFever, re*er to political culture rather than to the *ormal democratic rules.
The *requent votes o* no7con*idence, the re*erendum on unicameralism initiated by
the president and the involvement o* the onstitutional ourt in the education bill
are Fithin the limits o* democratic political procedure.
Commitment to
emocratic
institutions
$
5 " o&itica& and Socia& Integration
The chan"es in the electoral system *ailed to *ully produce the expected positive
e**ect on the political landscape. irstly, the parliamentary and presidential elections
Fere separated by prolon"in" the presidentJs term o* o**ice to *ive years &in 2?'.
Party system
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This attempt to de7politici)e procedures *ailed as the narroF victory in the
presidential elections o* >ovember 2! nevertheless tri""ered a "overnment crisis
a*ter less than one year o* PD(KP%D coalition. %econdly, the shi*t *rom a
proportional to a mixed electoral system Fas intended to enhance the societal roots
o* the political parties, but any e**ects Fere lar"ely o**set by the "larin" politicGin"
durin" the economic crisis, the on"oin" clientelism and populist measures as a
ne"ative *orm o* responsiveness to voters. Due to the hi"h threshold, party
*ra"mentation is loF, Fith only *ive parties in the 8@7seat hamber o* Deputies.
The leader7driven aspect o* these parties is still relatively hi"h, Fith a *eF Fell7
GnoFn politicians taGin" most o* the inner7party and national decisions. Despite
voter volatility, the results o* the European, presidential, local and parliamentary
elections o* the past tFo years su""est a *airly stable constituency *or each o* thema+or parties, althou"h the cross7party mi"ration o* individual member o*
parliament is still an issue.
The party system has increased its responsiveness to societal constituencies and the
ma+or parties are increasin"ly rooted in society rather than bein" leader7driven.
0oFever, the political elite continues to be Fary o* %s that channel public
interests and act as Fatchdo"s. orrespondin"ly, the political system lacGs
incentives and points o* access to alloF >Cs and societal interest "roups to +oin
the decision7maGin" process. %ome >Cs and their civil7ri"hts a"endas have
enou"h international bacGin" and domestic standin" to in*luence politics to somede"ree. Both the lar"est political parties ea"erly create >Cs, thinG tanGs and
pollin" institutes to occupy this increasin"ly important political arena. onversely,
Gey democratic interest "roups such as trade unions are FeaGly developed,
politically bound and by no means stron" social partners in their oFn ri"ht.
Interest +roups
#
The *allin" popularity o* anti7democratic, extremist parties continues, and
demonstrates the consolidation o* democratic institutions and a democratic political
culture. >evertheless, polls indicate that the "eneral level o* trust in these very
institutions is loF. (iGeFise, althou"h there have been some recent improvements,
public trust in national political institutions remains loF. 6 sprin" 2
Eurobarometer report re"istered an avera"e trust o* 9 *or the "overnment and
29 *or parliament &Fith a clear ne"ative trend' K a European loF. The ratin"s *or
political parties are similar. 6 never7endin" series o* corruption scandals and public
in*i"htin" "oes a lon" Fay explains the ebb in political trust, but it apparently does
not translate into support *or anti7system parties or movements.
ppro3al of
emocracy
$
%s tend to advocate the interests o* speci*ic social "roups, Fhereas lar"er,
internationally connected >Cs tend to be quite isolated *rom constituencies in
Romanian society, althou"h it may be assumed that constituencies and aFareness at
least in the urban middle class are "roFin". Due to the countyJs lon" socialist
tradition, people are more inclined to resort to state assistance and "uidance than to
societal sel*7or"ani)ation "roups or K in the case o* the Finners in the
.ocial capital
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trans*ormation process K to opt *or a hi"hly individualistic approach. 6dvocacy
or"ani)ations and civil society coalitions tend to *ocus &Fith increasin"
e**ectiveness and in*luence' on sin"le issues, most prominently anti7corruption, the
environment or con*lict o* interest and transparency durin" the 2= parliamentary
elections. onversely, the role o* broad, "eneral7purpose >Cs Fith substantial
national andHor international *undin" and expertise seems to have declined alon"
Fith E/ accession &and thus the replacement o* pre7accession European
ommission *undin" Fith structural pro"rams administered by national ministries,
Fho pre*er LtameM pro+ects, not Fatchdo" or activist >Cs'. Typically, social
capital is interpreted as traditional netForGs o* solidarity belon"in" to rural
environments, not to the dynamic urban circles o* the service sector,
internationali)ation and prosperity.
II. "conomic Transformation
6 " -ee& o, Socioeconomic )ee&o$mentKuestion
core
Due to "roFin" urbanKrural disparities in the processes o* socioeconomic
trans*ormation and European inte"ration, social exclusion is structurally in"rainedin Romania. Cender is scarcely a *actor, as the CD3 is close to 9 o* the 0D3,
but other />DP poverty7related indices indicate that poverty, thou"h not extreme,
is a serious and substantial problem. D3 and economic "roFth are stron"ly *ocused
on the capital, a hand*ul o* ma+or cities and the Nestern re"ions, Fhereas rural
underemployment persists as a structural problem. >ation7Fide, the steady increase
o* li*e expectancy su""ests improvements overall. onversely, the 0D3 has not
increased over the past three years &2=< .:A@, 2< .:A:', but neither has it
declined despite the crisis. ne indicator< The Norld BanG applauded Romania *or
its achievements in poverty reduction in the years prior to the economic "lobal
crisis. The situation o* the Roma community deserves special re*erence. Their
access to education and health services &and less so to Fel*are support' continue to
be serious issues.
.ocioeconomic
arriers
#
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(conomic indicators 200#
2008
200$
2010
9=P +ro(t* ? 6.0 $.! - 0./
Inflation 'CPI) ? !.8 #.8 5.6 6.1
Anemployment ? 6.! 5.8 6.$
"port +ro(t* ? #.8 1 - 1
Import +ro(t* ? 2 1 - 1
Current account alance > mn. -2%080
-2%#1$
-6$55
6480
"ternal et > mn. 8!16 102!8 11800 12150
Total et ser3ice > mn. 11568.1
1812%.2
162$!.5
18545.2
Ta re3enue ? of 1 1 -
9o3ernment consumption ? of 1 1 1 1
Pulic epn. on eu. ? of !.% - -
Pulic epn. on *ealt* ? of 5.2 5.! 5.!
RL= epeniture ? of 0. 0. -
4ilitary epeniture ? of 1.5 1.5 1.!
ources& T*e Dorl Ban,7 Dorl =e3elopment Inicators 2011 | International 4onetary Eun 'I4E)7Dorl "conomic Mutloo, 2011 | toc,*olm International Pease Researc* Institute 'IPRI)7 4ilitary"peniture =ataase 2011.
7 " rganiation o, t*e Maret and om$etition
Nith E/ accession, the institutions o* a marGet economy are in place and include
the *reedom o* trade and currency convertibility. Nhereas in the *irst phases o* the
trans*ormational process, Romania Fas ri"htly critici)ed *or reservin" too lar"e a
role *or the state in economic development, since then le"acies o* overre"ulation
exist in parallel Fith virtually unhampered *orms o* business practice beyond the
4ar,et-ase
competition
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control o* the authorities and re"ulations. (e"al and ille"al emi"rant ForGers and
their remittances contribute substantially to the subsistence o* *amilies bacG home.
Nhile *ormal re"ulations prohibitin" monopolies do exist, the ompetition ouncil
and other marGet arbiters K thou"h *ully in line Fith the acquis chapters K are still
FeaGer and more timid in reality than they should be. 3n 2 the ompetition
ouncil tooG on a more active role K especially in the Gey area o* the restructurin"
o* the national ener"y marGet, Fhere there Fas a real dan"er o* one company
achievin" a dominant position. The ompetition ouncil also handed out a ma+or
*ine to the Romanian Post *or abuse o* its dominant position. 3n recent years,
economic matters includin" competition laFs have not *eatured in the E/ reports on
Romania. 3n 2!, the ompetition ouncil adopted a more proactive stance and
initiated cooperation Fith a thinG tanG to investi"ate monopoly issues in vulnerable
sectors o* the economy &banGin", retail, pharmacy, liberal pro*essions, ener"y,
concessions and the taxi sector'.
nti-monopoly
policy
$
Nith E/ accession, Romania has become a *ull member o* the common marGet. 6ll
restrictions imposed by tari** and non7tari** trade barriers have thus been abolished.
The banGin" sector has been restructured to European standards. Predictably,
1oodyJs assessment o* the "eneral outlooG *or the Romanian banGin" sector in
2! Fas ne"ative because o* the "lobal *inancial crisis. 6*ter several pro*itable
years, the solvency o* Romanian banGs Fas not an issue, but loan delinquencies
increased and the banGs shunned risGs in business credits. 6s the banGs Fere
already overly cautious they avoided insolvency risGs, but contributed little to the
recovery o* the economy.
@ieraliJation of
forei+n trae
10Ban,in+ system
$
8 " urrency and rice Sta+i&ity
Evidently, investors consider Romania a risG country in the current situation. D3
has declined sharply, and the *orei"n exchan"e rate reacts to political events such as
the autumn 2 no7con*idence vote. verall, the exchan"e rate o* the (eu is
declinin", and depreciation is liGely to continue *or some time. &(on"7term *orei"n
currency ratin"< 1oodyJs Baa8 and BBO accordin" to %P and itch'. Nith
"overnment austerity measures implemented, in*lation increased sharply, especially
in connection Fith the @9 rise on 46T.
nti-inflation
fore policy
$
The Romanian "overnment clearly lived beyond its *inancial means, relyin" on a
continuation o* the 28 K 2= boom and exacerbatin" the *iscal and external
balance by lavish spendin" on Gey constituencies and "overnment apparatus +ust
be*ore the 2= elections. 6s a consequence, 33s and the European /nion had to
bail Romania out Fith a substantial assistance pacGa"e o* some Q2 billion *or2!H2 Fith strict conditionalities. The "overnment had to decide on a drastic
4acrostaility
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rise in 46T, a 2@9 cut in state salaries and pain*ul reductions in state7*unded social
bene*its. %till, external balance and *iscal balance have not been attained. The
European ommissionJs latest *i"ures predict a public bud"et balance o* 7:.89 o*
CDP *or 2 and 7@.@9 current account balance. The upFard turn, moreover, is
expected to taGe lon"er than in most other E/7countries &Fith the exception o*
(atvia'. CDP contraction and risin" unemployment Fill a**ect the tax in*loF in
2. ut o* pure necessity, "overnment policies are noF *ocused on
macroeconomic stability, but the past tFo years have demonstrated their tendency
to "ive in to populist pressures and electioneerin" strate"ies.
/ " riate ro$erty
6lthou"h Romanian le"islation on the acquisition and protection o* property ri"hts
is "enerally in line Fith the E/ acquis, there are still de*icits in the protection o*
intellectual and industrial property ri"hts despite stepped7up e**orts to prosecute
copyri"ht7related crimes &e."., e**orts made by the >ational ustoms 6uthority'.
verall, Romania is "radually becomin" more business7*riendly in terms o*
procedures and their duration. The restitution o* property nationali)ed by the
communist re"ime also remains an issue, thou"h less severe than in the past decade.
Property ri+*ts
$
6s an E/ member state, RomaniaJs in*rastructure *or *acilitatin" private enterprise
is *irmly in place. The state even o**ers competitive taxation re"imes *or *orei"n
investors. 0oFever, as *ar as the number o* o**icial procedures required to start a
business are concerned, Romania is not risin" on the Norld BanGJs Doin" Business
ranGin"s. The country ranGed @? in 2 and @A in 2, thou"h it should be noted
that this places it not *ar beloF the re"ional avera"e. The post7communist
privati)ation process is lar"ely over. 3n strate"ic sectors &ener"y', privati)ation
plans have stalled *or some years, but are lar"ely in line Fith the principles o*
marGet economy.
Pri3ate enterprise
$
10 " e&,are egime
%ocial security is or"ani)ed by the state and covers all relevant risGs in principle. 6s
the incidence o* poverty indicates, social security *unctions on a subsistence level
throu"hout the country. %imilarly, althou"h health care is available *or all citi)ens
throu"hout the state territory, it is inadequate, especially in rural settlements. 1ore
importantly, social disparities and inequality in access to health care and basic
services continue to exist. RomaniaJs health care system has been ne"atively
a**ected by E/ accession< Romania has one o* the loFest health bud"ets &and
hi"hest death rates' in the E/7, +eopardi)in" access to medicines *or all citi)ens.
6s Romania +oined the E/ marGet, pharmaceutical prices rose and patients are noFo*ten *orced to pay hal* or more o* the costs o* vital treatments. 6dditionally,
.ocial safety nets
#
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Romania has been less active than most other E/ countries in dealin" Fith the
upcomin" retirement o* the baby7boomer "eneration. Early retirement has been
Fidely used, and the employment rate in 2! Fas only @!9 &Eurostat *i"ures'.
%ocial sa*ety nets are pretty comprehensive, but many components are poorly
tar"eted. The system is over7extended by comparison Fith the resources made
available to it and promises more than it can deliver.
3n 2!H2 the "overnment started to address this imbalance, but the direction
Fas not one Fay< 1any bene*its Fere reduced, but the Lminimum pensionM Fas put
in place to extend assistance to the poorest cate"ories o* elderly people.
ne Gey e**ort concerned the controversial 2 pension re*orm that introduced a
uni*orm pension a"e, causin" clashes both Fithin parliament and betFeen
parliament and president.
Romanian society retains elements o* hetero"eneity and discriminatory access.
Education, basic social security and health care o**er limited compensation *or
social inequality. E"alitarian attitudes are Fidespread in the state7provided services,
but a lacG o* resources is paramount. 3n the lon" run, the main threat to state Fel*are
services is represented by a "radual depletion o* assets and a decay o* in*rastructure
maintenance. The />DP "ender7related indices and other relevant indicators no
lon"er su""est pro"ress but rather sta"nation. Disparities are *irst and *oremost
socioeconomic, and Fhile the existin" policies and institutions are consolidatedenou"h to prevent socioeconomic deterioration, they are not poFer*ul enou"h to
compensate *or "ross social di**erences and to achieve equality o* opportunity. The
/>DP "ender7related indices shoF that Romania still banGs on past equal7
opportunity policies and some recent transition trends< Nomen are not
disadvanta"ed in education and are even overrepresented in hi"her education, but
may earn less in similar positions. 6s an illustration< The present parliament
consists o* almost 8 male and a mere 8= *emale deputies. RomaniaJs success in
Norld7BanG7"uided poverty reduction may be o**7set by the current crisis, Fhich is
bound to hit the FeaGest in society *irst and hardest. The pli"ht o* the Roma
communities in terms o* access to health care and education indicates a FeaGness in
the Romanian state7provided services.
"2ual opportunity
#
11 " (conomic er,ormance
RomaniaJs economic per*ormance in the "lobal crisis has been relatively poor. The
crisis has revealed the structural FeaGnesses and vulnerabilities underneath the
substantial "roFth rates o* the past *eF years. 6*ter several years o* @9 K 9
CDP "roFth, 2! ended Fith 7=.@9. >et D3 in*loF had increased seven7*old
*rom 28 to 2=, but dropped to 2@Js level in one sin"le year o* the crisis K hal*the level o* 2=. %imilarly, remittances had climbed steeply since 2?, but halved
Mutput stren+t*
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in 2= to an amount similar to D3. The crisis a**ected imports rather than exports
and all three economic sectors Fere hit to a comparable de"ree. 3n*lation dropped
*rom .A9 to A.@9 and unemployment did not increase dramatically &*rom @.=9
2= to A.!9 2!'. The European /nion and 31 put pressure on the Romanian
"overnment&s' to *ace the consequences o* excessive spendin" and to restore order
in public *inances by addressin" *iscal imbalances and taGin" unpopular measures
&e."., reducin" pensions, raisin" 46T, cuttin" salaries o* state employees etc'. ne
structural FeaGness related to the re"ional and urbanHrural disparities remainsevertheless, in relative terms pro"ress has
been substantial on the "round. The "overnment has clearly become more aFare o*
and more proactive about environmental issues as a result o* E/ accession
ne"otiations, althou"h many initiatives are still pushed by international
or"ani)ations &e."., the />DP' and %s. oncerns about a reliable and clean
Fater supply and promotin" ener"y conservationHe**iciency are bein" addressed in
compliance Fith E/ environmental standards and international conventions. 3n
>ovember 2=, the Romanian "overnment also endorsed a comprehensive national
strate"y *or sustainable development. RomaniaJs Environmental Per*ormance 3ndex
score is Fell Fithin in the ran"e o* the E/7 countries.
"n3ironmental
policy
8
The main problems in RomaniaJs education system and RD investments concern
not the "eneral level o* education, but the uncontrolled mushroomin" o* non7
accredited institutions o* hi"her education. (iGeFise, althou"h "overnment
spendin" on education has improved the allocation o* resources is sGeFed in *avor
o* &public' hi"her education. verall, state controls on quality la" behind, althou"h
a laF adopted in late 2 may address this issue. Economic competitiveness and
the closure o* the urbanKrural quality "ap require substantial investment in
improvin" primary education throu"hout the country. Public spendin" on RD is
*ar beloF E/ and ED avera"es and it remains to be seen Fhether the
incremental "roFth Fill continue despite the economic crisis. The basics are in
place< hi"h literacy rates, primary and secondary education throu"hout the country.
The reversal o* the *emale to male ratio K close to 9 in primary and secondary
education, but 8?9 in tertiary education K is typical *or post7communist countries,
especially in %outh7eastern Europe. (i*e7lon" trainin" has not yet been establishedCs only Fhen necessary as a result o*
Nestern pressure or the particular >CJs increasin" popularity, or Fhen the state
administration itsel* lacGs the required competence. verall, the "overnment does
not appear to Felcome a broader policy dialo"ue Fith %s. Expediency
considerations prevail over broader consultation Fith or"ani)ations such as trade
unions or churches. 6t best, politicians cooperate Fith an elite o* not necessarily
representative thinG tanGs and >Cs. The "radual increase in career permeability
betFeen the "overnment bureaucracy and political7representative institutions, on
the one hand, and civil society and advocacy or"ani)ations, on the other hand, may
be considered a positive trend. /n*ortunately, some o* the *eF critical voices have
been e**ectively silenced by co7optation into administrative and political
responsibilities. The remedy *or this problem is a lon"7term process based on the
di**erent outlooG and competencies and % bacG"roundHnetForGs o* middle
echelon politicians and civil servants.
Ci3il society
participatio
n
6
Ever since the bloody revolution o* !=!, Romania has been exceptional in its
handlin" o* its Far7time past &as an ally o* >a)i Cermany' and its communist past.
eausescuJs nationalistic denial o* any Romanian involvement in o**ensive Far*are,
Far crimes or the 0olocaust continued in much public debate a*ter !=!. 0istorical
revelations scarcely reached the public debate. Eventually, *ormer communist and
President 3on 3liescu partly broGe the taboo.
The more pressin" issue o* communist repression and expropriation also never*ound much o* an echo in Romanian public and political debate. The activists and
civil society "roups callin" attention to the crimes o* communism are relatively
small and mar"inal. 3n 2@, the Romanian "overnment eventually set up a ondul
Proprietatea to compensate victims o* expropriations *rom a stocG *und Forth some
Q? billion at the time o* its establishment. 6ccordin" to several reports, the *und has
since been mismana"ed since and its listin" at the stocG marGet delayed. Due to the
crisis, the shares o* the *ormer victims have dFindled to a *raction o* their nominal
value, Fhereas marGet speculators have reaped the pro*its. 1eanFhile, the *und has
been run by the respected international asset mana"ement *irm ranGlin Templeton
3nvestment 1ana"ement since %eptember 2. The *irm taGes actions &evena"ainst the "overnment' to increase its share value and brin" it to the stocG marGet.
Reconciliation
#
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6part *rom the *und, there has also been in7Gind restitution &land, buildin"s,
industrial assets', thou"h the process Fas lon" and protracted.
17 " Internationa& oo$eration
verall, Romania has made e**ective use o* international support *rom the
European /nion, the European BanG *or Reconstruction and Development &EBRD',
the 31 and the Norld BanG in the current crisis, but its main strate"ies Fere
dictated by the international or"ani)ations themselves. 3n policy *ields beyond hi"h
politics, Romanian is becomin" increasin"ly competent and quali*ied in mana"in"
the resources made available by international cooperation, especially Fithin the
European /nion. %ince E/ accession, Romania has become a partner in an endless
array o* E/ or E/7related or"ani)ations and netForGs in policy *ields ran"in" *rom
anti7corruption to environmental protection.
"ffecti3e use of
support
8
The international credibility problem o* Romania as a partner is *our*old. irst,
inevitably is the ne"ative ima"e o* Romania amon" European citi)ens. 6mon"
international or"ani)ations and the E/ in particular, populist rhetoric and
enlar"ement *ati"ue amon" voters has an indirect impact. President Basescu in
particular has been detrimental to RomaniaJs reputation as a constructive and
reliable international partner by occasionally &ab'usin" international *orums to roll
our populist rhetoric *or domestic audiences and crude statements &more in 2!
than in 2'. 6dditionally, his unFillin"ness to end the political stalemate and
nominate a neF prime minister a*ter the "overnmentJs collapse in ctober 2!
prior to his oFn re7election in December certainly Fas detrimental to RomaniaJs
international reputation. 6 dramatic lacG o* coordination and cooperation betFeen
president and "overnment or amon" cabinet members has been as detrimental as the
insu**icient e**orts to synchroni)e national initiatives Fith international strate"ies
&a"ain, mainly in 2!'.
The "overnment itsel* has lar"ely been cooperative, but the many chan"es in
"overnments and recurrin" phases o* coalition buildin" and interim "overnmentshave been detrimental to the belie* o* international or"ani)ations and 33s in
RomaniaJs policy7maGin" poFer. 6 positive development< ivil servants in the
ministries and a"encies have "ained experience in international cooperation and
quali*ications overall, thus creatin" a bacGbone o* international credibility and
reliability.
3n 2, RomaniaJs readiness to cooperate Fith international partners and
international or"ani)ations and 33s increased marGedly. onversely, some E/
member states obstructed RomaniaJs accession to %chen"en *or political and
domestic reasons rather than on the basis o* the criteria set by the European /nion.
Creiility
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1eanFhile, Romania has become more e**ective and Fillin" in implementin" 31
recommendations and criteria *or bud"etary sustainability.
Civen the economic crisis and its oFn political instability, Romania seems to have
"iven up on most o* its ambitions to play the role o* a re"ional leader in
southeastern Europe and the BlacG %ea re"ion. verall, noF that E/ membership
has been achieved, re"ional cooperation has marGedly declined as a political
priority. Relations Fith nei"hborin" 1oldova constitute an exception. Nith the
chan"e o* "overnment in hisinau in mid72!, Bucharest has taGen a more active
stance as 1oldovaJs advocate Fithin the E/. verall, Romania lacGs the political
capacity to play a more substantial role in the European /nion, unliGe some other
E/7 states. orei"n and European policies require hi"h7level politics rather than
competent administrators and diplomats.
Re+ional
cooperatio
n
$
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trate+ic Mutloo,
Nhereas the risGs Romania *aces in the economic *ield are, on the on hand, structural le"acies,
and on the other hand, part and parcel o* the "lobal economic and *inancial crisis, the countryJs
political risGs are predominantly sel*7in*licted.
Economically, the underdevelopment o* the a"ricultural sector constitutes a heavy load.
onsequently, the economic "roFth o* the past *ive to six years has been re"ionally uneven.
Partly because o* political instability, D3 is relatively loF and sensitive to smaller or lar"er
crises, internationally or domestically. The same applies to mi"rant ForGersJ remittances &eventhou"h they dropped less than expected durin" the crisis'. onsequently, domestic consumption
Fill be the Gey issue in economic recovery in the next *eF years. Romania &and Bul"aria' are
expected to be sloFer in recovery than the other E/7 countries. Due to the austerity pro"ram
the "overnment had to implement a*ter overspendin", the recovery process cannot banG on
domestic consumption &Fhich is partly dependent on remittances', but has to hope *or investors
and export. 3n sum, there is next to )ero *iscal space *or creative solutions beyond *olloFin"
recommendations and conditions set by European /nion and 33s.
RomaniaJs main option *or serious improvement is political in nature and at the same time its
main risG *or the near *uture. Public trust and turnout at elections are loF. Politicians o* the mainparties are time and a"ain draFn bacG to a style o* politics that lacGs public transparency &and
access *or %s', is hi"hly centrali)ed, prone to populist rhetoric, &ab'use o* democratic
instruments *or party politics and short on political coura"e to unite to tacGle Gey problems. The
checGered record o* political re*orm and economic development has not translated into political
&extremist' alternatives. onsiderin" the developments in nei"hborin" transition countries &and
many E/7@ countries *or that matter', it is merely a matter o* time until a modern ri"ht7Fin"
populist movement replaces the antiquated PR1.