111 tag meeting december 16, 2010 electricities office raleigh, nc
TRANSCRIPT
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TAG Meeting Agenda1. Administrative Items – Rich Wodyka
2. 2010 – 2020 Collaborative Plan Study Results – Kai Zai
3. Regional Studies Update – Bob Pierce
4. EISPC Report – Kim Jones
5. 2011 Study Scope – Denise Roeder
6. 2011 TAG Work Plan – Rich Wodyka
7. TAG Open Forum – Rich Wodyka
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Base Reliability Study– Year 2015 and 2020
Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios Climate Change Legislation Scenarios
– Coal Generation Retirements– Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind Sensitivity
Outline of Studies
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2015 & 2020 Summer No new issues identified in Eastern or Western
Areas- Projects already in the Collaborative Plan to
address network loadings
2015-16 Winter No new Issues identified in Western Area
Base Reliability Results – Progress Energy
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2015 & 2020 Summer No new issues identified
- Projects already in the Collaborative Plan to address network loadings
2015-16 Winter No new Issues identified
Base Reliability Results - Duke
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Projects shifting within planning window:
London Creek 230 kV line (for loss of parallel line)- Deferred from 2015 to 2020
Projects now outside of planning window:
Fisher 230 kV line (for loss of parallel line)- Deferred from 2017
Base Reliability Results - Duke
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Request SOURCE SINK MW Service Dates
1 Cleveland Co. site CPLE 1000 1/12 to 1/22
2 Cleveland Co. site DVP 1000 1/12 to 1/22
3 SOCO DVP 1000 1/12 to 1/22
4 SOCO CPLE 1000 1/12 to 1/22
Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios
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Request 1- Cleveland County - CPLE 1000 MW
Progress Energy
- Construct Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV 3rd Line (14 Miles)
Duke
- No previously unidentified issues
Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios
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Request 2- Cleveland County- DVP 1000 MW
Progress Energy
- Construct Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV 3rd Line (14 Miles)
Duke
- No previously unidentified issues
Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios
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Request 3- SOCO-DVP 1000 MW
Progress Energy
- No previously unidentified issues
Duke
- No previously unidentified issues
Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios
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Request 4- SOCO-CPLE 1000 MW
Progress
- Construct Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV 3rd Line (14 Miles)
Duke
- No previously unidentified issues
Enhanced Transmission Access Scenarios
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Import into Progress
Cleveland CountyDate Needed ($M)
Southern CompanyDate Needed ($M)
To accept Transmission Service Request
$203-4 Years after TSR Start
Date$20
Import into Dominion
Cleveland CountyDate Needed ($M)
Southern Company Date Needed ($M)
2 Years after TSR Start Date $20 --- ---
2015 Enhanced Access Scenarios Studied1000 MW Imports to Progress East or Dominion
Primary Alternative Investigated
Issue IdentifiedLead Time
(years)
Construct Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV 3rd Line
Overloads of the Lilesville-Rockingham 230 kV Black and White Lines
4
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Climate Change Legislation Scenarios
Coal Generation Retirements
Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind Sensitivity Study
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Coal Generation Retirements
Progress Energy Wayne County & Sutton Combined Cycles
- Coal plant replacements were modeled- Scheduled for 2013 and 2014, respectively
Cape Fear & Weatherspoon Coal Plants- Retirements built into models- Scheduled for 2014
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Duke
Retirements
Buck Steam Station (256 MW)
Lee Steam Station (370 MW)
Riverbend Steam Station (266 MW)
Coal Generation Retirements
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Approximately 3,000 MW total capacity Injected at three locations on Progress system
MW allocation – 60% Duke, 40% Progress
NC Off- Shore Wind Sensitivity Scenario
Injection Point On-peak MW(30-40% CF)
Off-peak MW(90% CF)
Wilmington 125 375
Morehead City 675 1,500
Bayboro 425 1,125
TOTAL 1,225 3,000
NC Off-Shore Wind- Strawman Proposal
FERC Order No: 630The original slide contains
Critical Energy Infrastructure Informationand is not available to the Public
20202020
Hypothetical NC Off-Shore Wind Sensitivity Scenario Original Strawman
- NCTPC starting point in evaluating off-shore wind
- Based on UNC Report
Four Options were developed by PWG
- Based on power flow results and analysis
- Assessment of costs versus benefits
Solving transmission constraints for off-peak loads with wind capacity factor at 90% also solved on-peak transmission problems with lower wind capacity factors
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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind Options Summary
Option 1A: 3,000 MW - Estimated Cost $1.195 B- 230 kV wind connection to network
Option 1B: 3,000 MW - Estimated Cost $1.310 B- 500 kV wind connection to network
Option 2: 2,500 MW - Estimated Cost $1.155 B- 500 MW reduction of output doesn’t create a breakpoint- Rebuilding 2-230 kV Lines is only difference from 1A
Option 3: 2,000 MW - Estimated Cost $0.525 B- Significant breakpoint in transmission upgrades- Removed 500 kV Infrastructure- Construct Greenville West -New Bern 230kV Line
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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 1A
Total Wind Power Injection: 3000 MW
Southport 375 MW
Sutton
Jacksonville Morehead 1500 MW
Havelock
New Bern
Bayboro1125 MW
Wommack
Wake
Cumberland
230 KV500 KV
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Line/Equipment NameVoltage
(kV)Est. Mileage
(Miles)Est. Cost
(M)
Brunswick area –Sutton 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90
Sutton area 230 kV Switching Station 230 $15
Jacksonville – Sutton 230 kV line 230 45 $90
Havelock -Morehead City area 230 kV lines 230 60 (3 lines) $90
Havelock – New Bern 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90
Bayboro – New Bern 230 kV lines 230 50 (2 lines) $75
Bayboro – Bayboro Tap 230 kV line 230 5 $10
Aurora- Greenville 230 kV line partial rebuild 230 20 $20
Aurora-New Bern 230 kV rebuild 230 20 $20
New Bern 500KV Substation w/ 2 Banks 500 $60
Womack 500 kV Switching Station 500 $30
New Bern – Wommack 500 kV lines 500 70 (2 Lines) $175
Wake-Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195
Cumberland-Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195
SVC at Wommack 500 $40
Totals 580 Miles $1,195 M
Option 1A: Wind Generation Output 3,000 MW
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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 1B
Southport 375 MW
Sutton
JacksonvilleMorehead 1500 MW
New Bern
Bayboro1125 MW
Wommack
Cumberland
230 KV500 KV
Wake
Total Wind Power Injection: 3000 MW
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Option 1B: Wind Generation Output 3,000 MW
Line/Equipment Name Voltage(kV)
Est. Mileage(Miles)
Est. Cost (M)
Brunswick –Sutton area 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90
230 kV Switch Station at Sutton 230 $15
Sutton – Jacksonville 230 kV line 230 45 $90
Morehead City area– New Bern 500 kV lines 500 100 (2 lines)
$250
Bayboro – New Bern 500 kV lines 500 50 (2 lines) $125
New Bern 500KV Substation w/ 2 Banks 500 $60
Womack 500 kV Switch Station 500 $30
New Bern – Wommack 500 kV lines 500 70 (2 Lines) $175
Wake- Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195
Cumberland-Wommack 500 kV line 500 80 $240
SVC at Wommack 500 $40
Totals 470 Miles $1,310 M
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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 2
Southport 375 MW
Sutton
Jacksonville Morehead 1250 MWHavelock
New BernBayboro875 MW
Wommack
Wake
Cumberland
230 KV500 KV
Total Wind Power Injection: 2500 MW
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Option 2: Wind Generation Output 2,500 MW
Line/Equipment NameVoltage
(kV)Est. Mileage
(Miles)Est. Cost
(M)
Brunswick–Sutton area 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90
Sutton area 230 kV Switching Station 230 $15
Jacksonville – Sutton 230 kV line 230 45 $90
Havelock -Morehead City area 230 kV lines 230 60 (3 lines) $90
Havelock – New Bern 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90
Bayboro – New Bern 230 kV line 230 50 (2 lines) $75
Bayboro – Bayboro Tap 230 kV line 230 5 $10
New Bern 500 kV Substation w/ 2 Banks 500 $60
Womack 500 kV Switching Station 500 $30
New Bern – Wommack 500 kV lines 500 70 (2 Lines) $175
Wake-Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195
Cumberland-Wommack 500 kV line 500 65 $195
SVC at Wommack 500 $40
Totals 480 Miles $1,155 M
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Hypothetical NC Off- Shore Wind: Option 3
Southport 375 MW
Sutton
Jacksonville Morehead 1000 MWHavelock
New BernBayboro625 MW
Greenville West
230 KV500 KV
Total Wind Power Injection: 2000 MW
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Option 3: Wind Generation Output 2,000 MW
Line/Equipment NameVoltage
(kV)Est. Mileage
(Miles)Est. Cost
(M)
Brunswick area –Sutton 230 kV lines 230 60 (2 lines) $90
Sutton area 230 kV Switching Station 230 $15
Jacksonville – Sutton 230 kV line 230 45 $90
Havelock -Morehead City area 230 kV lines 230 60 (3 lines) $90
Havelock – New Bern 230 kV line 230 30 $60
Bayboro – New Bern 230 kV line 230 25 $50
Bayboro – Bayboro Tap 230 kV line 230 5 $10
Greenville West- New Bern 230 kV line 230 40 $80
New Bern SVC 230 $40
Totals 265 Miles $525 M
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Comparison to Previous Collaborative Transmission Plan
2009 Plan 2010 Plan
Number of projects with an estimated cost of $10 million or more each
18 14
Total estimated cost of Plan $595M $473 M
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Major Projects in 2010 Plan
Reliability Project TO Planned I/S Date
Asheville-Enka 230 kV line, Convert 115 kV line; &
Asheville-Enka 115 kV, Build new lineProgress
December ’10
December ’12
Rockingham-West End 230 kV East line Progress June ’11
Ft Bragg Woodruff Street-Richmond 230 kV Line
Progress June ‘11
Pleasant Garden-Asheboro 230 kV line, replace Asheboro 230 kV xfmrs
Progress
& Duke
June ’11
Clinton-Lee 230 kV line Progress December ’11
Brunswick 1 - Castle Hayne 230kV Line, Construct New Cape Fear River Crossing
Progress June ’12
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Import Scenarios
Major Projects in 2010 Plan (Continued)
Reliability Project TO Planned I/S Date
Jacksonville Static VAR Compensator Progress June ‘13
Folkstone 230/115kV Substation Progress June ’13
Harris-RTP 230 kV line Progress June ’14
Greenville-Kinston Dupont 230 kV line Progress June ’17
Durham-RTP 230kV Line, Reconductor Progress June ’20
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Import Scenarios
Major Projects in 2010 Plan (Continued)
Reliability Project TO Planned I/S Date
Sadler Tie-Glen Raven Main Circuit 1 & 2 (Elon 100 kV Lines), Reconductor
Duke June ‘11
Reconductor Caesar 230 kV Lines(Pisgah Tie-Shiloh Switching Station #1 & #2)
Duke June ‘13
Reconductor London Creek 230 kV Lines(Peach Valley Tie-Riverview Switching Station #1 & #2)
Duke June ‘20
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EIPC background
EIPC Objectives1. Integration (“roll-up”) and analysis of approved regional plans
2. Development of possible interregional expansion scenarios to be studied
3. Development of interregional transmission expansion options
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EIPC Structure
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Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC)
(Open Collaborative Process)
EIPC Analysis TeamPrincipal InvestigatorsPlanning Authorities
Steering Committee
Stakeholder Work Groups
Executive Leadership
Technical Leadership &
Support Group
Stake-holder Groups
States Provinces FederalOwners
OperatorsUsers
…
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EIPC Focus between now and end of 2012 Perform analysis under the Department of Energy Topic A award for
Transmission Planning Analysis for the Eastern Interconnection Phase I - between now and October, 2011
– Integrate existing regional plans - Perform roll-up of existing 2020 transmission plans
– Production cost analysis of regional plans - Perform production costing analysis of existing 2020 transmission plans
– Develop macroeconomic scenarios on possible futures and perform analysis on these futures
– Agree on expansion scenarios for Interregional Transmission Options development in Phase II
Phase II - October, 2011 to Late 2012– Develop transmission expansion options, along with associated
costs, for agreed on expansion scenarios
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EIPC Current ActivitiesPlanning Authorities
Have refined roll-up of existing regional transmission plans detailing modeling assumptions for the 2020 summer model in response to Stakeholder concerns
Rerunning analysis of bulk energy transfers between markets/regions on the 2020 summer model
Working with CRA on economic analysis methods and populating databases with additional data required
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EIPC Current ActivitiesStakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) 12/13, 14
meeting in Charlotte Broad representation of interests – states,
NGO’s, TO’s, GO’s, End-users …. Developing a common language and
understanding of expectations Difficult process to work through, negotiation
between multiple stakeholder groups Breakout sessions
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EIPC Current ActivitiesSSC 12/13, 14 meeting in Charlotte Roll-up model and transfer capability results Baseline model – negotiated criteria for inclusion
of generation & transmission facilities, petitioning GE MAPS analysis and transfer capability
analysis of Baseline model Reached agreement on 8 future scenarios and
sensitivities to be modeled in NEEM Analysis (pipes & bubbles)
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EIPC Current Activities Business as Usual Federal Carbon Constraint - national implementation Federal Carbon Constraint - state/regional
implementation Energy Efficiency/Demand Response/SmartGrid National RPS - Top down national implementation National RPS - state/regional implementation Nuclear Resurgence Combined Federal Climate and Energy Policy
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Report on Eastern Interconnection States
Planning Council (EISPC)
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Kim Jones
NC Utility Commission
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Requests selected at the October 2010 meeting
2010 series MMWG 2016 and 2021 Summer Peak cases updated to reflect 2016 and 2020 Summer Peaks
SIRPP
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2010-2011 SIRPP Study Requests
HVDC Injection in Duke to VACAR – 3000 MW (2016)
SCRTP to PJM West – 1000 MW (2016)
SCRTP to TVA – 1000 MW (2016)
PJM West to VACAR – 1000 MW (2016)
PEC to the Southeast – 2000 MW (2020)
SIRPP
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HVDC Injection in Duke to VACAR – 3000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Generation to Generation Source: New generator interconnecting to a new
500 kV transmission line that connects to the following Duke lines:– Asbury line (A new substation on the Oconee – Newport
500 kV transmission line)– South Mountain line (A new substation on the Jocassee –
Cliffside 500 kV transmission line) Sink: Generation within VACAR allocated to
participating transmission owners in VACAR
SIRPP
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SCRTP to PJM West – 1000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Generation to Load Source: Generation within the SCRTP
– Generation to source the transfer will be based upon the load serving ratio of SCE&G and SCPSA provided that there is sufficient existing generation “on-peak” to supply the transfer amount.
Sink: Uniform load scale of the PJM West area.
SIRPP
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SCRTP to TVA – 1000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Generation to Generation Source: Generation within the SCRTP
– Generation to source the transfer will be based upon the load serving ratio of SCE&G and SCPSA provided that there is sufficient existing generation “on-peak” to supply the transfer amount.
Sink: Generation within TVA’s area.
SIRPP
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PJM West to VACAR – 1000 MW (2016) Type of Transfer: Load to Generation Source: Uniform load scale of the PJM West area. Sink: Generation within VACAR.
– This transfer will be allocated to the participating transmission owners in VACAR by the ratio of their load to the total load of all of the participating transmission owners in VACAR.
SIRPP
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PEC to the Southeast – 2000 MW (2020) Type of Transfer: Generation to Generation Source: Five injection points of 400 MW each of
off-shore wind at substations in the Carolinas Sink: Generation within the Southeast Sub-Region
of SERC (1700 MW) and the FRCC (300 MW) allocated to transmission owners in the Southeast Sub-Region based upon the ratio of their load to the total load included in the sink and in the FRCC that have ties to Southern Balancing Authority.
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SIRPP
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RTEP Backbone Update TRAIL – Trans-Allegheny Line, on schedule for 2011 PATH – Potomac-Appalachian Line, now 2015 MAPP – Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway, 2 HVDC lines
across onto Delmarva Peninsula by 2015. Sets up accepting wind farm energy off of Indian River
2nd 500/230 kV bank at Clover by 2015, meets reliability and market efficiency needs.
NCTPC/PJM
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NCTPC/PJM
RTEP Sensitivity Analysis Evaluated RPS requirements for each state and
interconnection queue requests for renewable sources.
Wind cluster off the coast of DE & NJ (~4%), on the Appalachian Mountains (~35%) and spread throughout PJM West (~60%).
Would need 12,000 MW by 2015 and 28,000 MW by 2020.
Traditional EHV system limitations across PA/MD/VA were observed.
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2010 LTSG Study Evaluate inter-regional and inter-BA
transfer capability and base case reliability under N-1 conditions in 2016S
SERC LTSG
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DUKE/PEC Significant Facilities Everetts-Greenville 230 kV (DVP/PEC)
McGuire 500/230 kV Transformer (DUKE)
McGuire-Riverbend Steam Station 230 kV 1/2 (DUKE)
Wateree-Great Falls 100 kV 1/2 (DUKE)
Parkwood 500/230 kV Transformers (DUKE)
SERC LTSG
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Southeastern Offshore Wind Energy Infrastructure Project
SCOPE Funded by a DOE State Energy Program
grant
Administered by the Georgia Environmental Finance Authority (GEFA)
Facilitated by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE)
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Southeastern Offshore Wind Energy Infrastructure Project
SCOPE Multi-phased project is a collaboration among
state, regional, and national agencies to create a thorough understanding of the infrastructure required to develop GW scale ocean renewable energy resources in an economic manner.
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Southeastern Offshore Wind Energy Infrastructure Project
SCOPE
RFP - Phase 2A - Siting Analysis for Potential Offshore Wind Farm Development
RFP - Phase 2B - Offshore Wind Farm Electricity Generation Output Data
RFP - Phase 2C - Gigawatt-Scale Offshore Wind Farm Transmission
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Southeastern Offshore Wind Energy Infrastructure Project
https://sites.google.com/site/requestforproposals2010/
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NERC Reliability Standards Update
FERC BES Final Rule
CIP-002-4 Critical Cyber Assets
PRC-023 Relay Loadability
FAC-013-2 Transfer Capability
TPL-001-2 and Footnote b
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1. Assumptions Selected2. Study Criteria Established3. Study Methodologies Selected 4. Models and Cases Developed5. Technical Analysis Performed6. Problems Identified and Solutions Developed7. Collaborative Plan Projects Selected8. Study Report Prepared
Study Process Steps
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Study years- Short term (5 yr) and long term (10 yr)
base reliability analysis- Alternate model scenarios
Thermal power flow analysis - Duke & Progress contingencies- Duke & Progress monitored elements
• Internal lines• Tie lines
Collaborative Study Assumptions
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LSEs provide:– Inputs for load forecasts and resource
supply assumptions– Dispatch order for their resources
Area interchange coordinated between Participants and neighboring systems
Study Inputs
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TAG request to be distributed in early February, 2011
Requests can now include in, out and through transmission service
Enhanced Transmission Access Requests
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Base reliability case analysis– 2016 summer and winter– 2021 summer
An “All Firm Transmission” Case(s) will be developed which will include all confirmed long term firm transmission reservations with roll-over rights applicable to the study year(s).
Duke and Progress will each create their respective generation down cases from the common Base Case and share the relevant cases with each other.
2011 Study - Base
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Study Year – 2021
Resource Supply Options- Hypothetical Transfers from neighboring
control areas revisited every other year - Southern, SCE&G, SC, PJM, TVA
Other suggestions?
2011 Study – Sensitivities
8888 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
Enhanced Access Planning Process
Coordinated Plan Development
Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions
Review Reliability Study Results
Evaluate current reliability problems and transmission upgrade plans
Propose and select enhanced access scenarios and interface
Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions
Review Enhanced Access Study Results
Reliability Planning Process
OSC publishes DRAFT Plan
TAG review and comment
Combine Reliability and Enhanced Results
2011 Overview Schedule
TAG Meetings
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January - February
Finalize 2011 Study Scope of Work- Receive final 2011 Reliability Study Scope for comment
- Review and provide comments to the OSC on the final 2011 Reliability Study Scope including the Study Assumptions; Study Criteria; Study Methodology and Case Development
- Receive request from OSC to provide input on proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces for study
- Provide input to the OSC on proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces for study
Proposed 2011 TAG Work Plan
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April - May TAG Meeting
Receive feedback from the OSC on what proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces will be included in the 2011 study
Receive a progress report on the 2011 Reliability Planning study activities and results
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June - July TAG Meeting 2011 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, PROBLEM
IDENTIFICATION and SOLUTION DEVELOPMENT– TAG will receive a progress report from the PWG on the
2011 study
– TAG will be requested to provide input to the OSC and PWG on the technical analysis performed, the problems identified as well as proposing alternative solutions to the problems identified
– Receive update status of the upgrades in the 2010 Collaborative Plan
– TAG will be requested to provide input to the OSC and PWG on any proposed alternative solutions to the problems identified through the technical analysis
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August - September TAG Meeting 2011 STUDY UPDATE
– Receive a progress report on the Reliability Planning and Enhanced Transmission Access Planning studies
2011 SELECTION OF SOLUTIONS– TAG will receive feedback from the OSC on any alternative
solutions that were proposed by TAG members
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December
2011 STUDY REPORT– Receive and comment on final draft of the 2011
Collaborative Transmission Plan report
TAG Meeting– Receive presentation on the draft report of 2011
Collaborative Transmission Plan – Provide feedback to the OSC on the 2011 NCTPC
Process– Review and comment on the 2012 TAG Work Plan
Schedule