1.075,9 1.024,8 5,0% 1.011,5 230,3 213,9 7,7% 207,4 21,4%
TRANSCRIPT
1.075,9 1.024,8 5,0% 1.011,5
230,3 213,9 7,7% 207,4
21,4% 20,9% 0,5% 20,5%
147,4 114,7 28,5% 116,3
13,7% 11,2% 2,5% 11,5%
1.075,9 723,1 48,8% 956,0 12,6%
230,3 119,4 92,9% 203,9 13,0%
21,4% 16,5% 4,9% 21,3% 0,1%
147,4 321,3 -54,1% 114,8 28,4%
13,7% 44,4% -30,7% 12,0% 1,7%
Valuation Metrics (Year end Dec) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
Recommendation: HOLD P/E 10.17 4.83 8.3 8.3 7.6
Fair Value: TRY 4.25 EV / Sales 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3
EV / EBIT 28.1 14.4 11.1 11.8 11.6
Share Price: TRY 3.49 EV / EBITDA 10.1 6.7
Upside / Downside: 21.9% P/BV 0.56 0.80 1.0 0.9 0.9
FCF Yield -8.0% 3.2% 9.7% 9.6% 10.8%
Previous Fair Value: TRY 2.97 OCF Yield 0.4% 9.8% 17.0% 19.2% 21.2%
% change to Fair Value: 43.2%
Bloomberg ticker: TRKCM TI Key Ratios 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
Reuters code: TRKCM IS
EBITDA margin 13.0% 15.8% 20.5% 19.5% 19.5%
Operating Profit margin 4.6% 7.4% 12.6% 11.6% 11.6%
Capex / Revenue (15.6%) (8.6%) (7.6%) (9.2%) (9.2%)
Shares In Issue Less Treasury (m) 1,130 Capex / Depreciation (1.88) (1.02) (0.96) (1.16) (1.17)
Market Cap (TRY m) 3,944 Net Debt / EBITDA 2.6 2.4 1.7 2.1 2.3
Net Debt (as of 2Q17-end) 1,259 ROA 3% 8% 6% 5% 5%
Adjustments For Associates & Minorities - ROE 6% 17% 13% 12% 12%
Enterprise Value (TRY m) 5,203
Net Pension Deficit (Surplus) -
P&L Summary (TRY m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
Forthcoming Catalysts Revenue 2,118 3,016 3,776 4,123 4,460
% change 4.9% 42.4% 25.2% 9.2% 8.2%
3Q17 financial results October 2017 EBITDA 274 478 772 802 868
% change (15.0%) 74.2% 61.7% 3.9% 8.2%
% margin 13.0% 15.8% 20.5% 19.5% 19.5%
Depreciation & Amortisation 176 254 298 325 352
Operating Profit 98 223 474 477 516
% change -42.9% 127.2% 112.3% 0.5% 8.2%
% margin 4.6% 7.4% 12.6% 11.6% 11.6%
Associates - - -
Global Securities Analysts EBIT 98 223 474 477 516
Utku Uygur, Ph.D. Net Financials -18 -119 -81 -82 -84
+90 850 201 94 89 Other Pre-tax Income 117 498 208 206 223
[email protected] Pre Tax Profit 197 602 601 601 655
Income Tax Expense -28 -27 -95 -95 -103
Discontinued Operations - - -
Revenue Pie chart split by geography (as of 12M16) Minority Interests (10) (28) (30) (30) (33)
Net Income 159 547 476 475 519
Reported EPS (TRY) 0.18 0.59 0.51 0.51 0.56
Underlying EPS (TRY) 0.18 0.59 0.51 0.51 0.56
DPS (TRY) 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.18
Payout Ratio 55.0% 50.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
Shares In Issue Less Treasury (m) 895.00 930.00 930.00 930.00 930.00
,
Cash Flow (TRY m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
Revenue Pie Chart split by products (as of 12M16) EBIT 98 223 474 477 516
-Taxes paid (28) (27) (95) (95) (103)
+Depreciation 176 254 298 325 352
+ Increase in accounts payable (66) 375 40 37 18
-Increase in accounts receivable 84 301 (83) 1 (10)
-Increase in inventory 81 120 122 (17) (40)
-Increases in other current assets (2) 18 9 4 (4)
Cash flow from operations 17 387 669 756 837
Capex 331 260 287 378 412
FCFF (314) 127 381 379 424
Balance Sheet (TRY m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2018E
Margin Trends
Cash & Equivalents 1,170 1,216 1,522 1,662 1,798
Inventory 440 548 563 546 506
Trade Receivables 402 703 621 621 611
Fixed Assets 2,722 3,327 3,362 3,351 3,403
Other Assets 892 1,085 1,902 2,803 3,587
Total Assets 5,627 6,879 7,969 8,983 9,904
Interest Bearing Debt 1,886 2,369 2,852 3,334 3,817
Trade Payables 261 446 703 740 759
Other Liabilities 340 478 599 654 707
Total Liabilities 2,488 3,293 4,038 4,729 5,283
Shareholders' Equity 2,889 3,293 3,610 3,906 4,243
Minority Interests 249 293 322 348 378
Total Equity 3,139 3,587 3,932 4,254 4,621
Net Debt (Cash) 716 1,153 1,330 1,672 2,020
Trakya Cam
Turkey56%
Europe38%
Other6%
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
20
15
201
6
20
17
E
20
18
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Cash
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w (
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EBITDA margin Operating profit margin
Float63%
Auto&Other37%