10.1016 j.irfa.2015.01.005 sentiment in oil markets
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Sentiment in Oil Markets
Peter Deeney, Mark Cummins, Michael Dowling, Adam Bermingham
PII: S1057-5219(15)00016-2DOI: doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.005Reference: FINANA 795
To appear in: International Review of Financial Analysis
Received date: 1 December 2014Revised date: 22 December 2014Accepted date: 8 January 2015
Please cite this article as: Deeney, P., Cummins, M., Dowling, M. & Bermingham,A., Sentiment in Oil Markets, International Review of Financial Analysis (2015), doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.005
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Sentiment in Oil Markets
Peter Deeneya * 1
, Mark Cumminsa, Michael Dowling
a, Adam Bermingham
b 2
a Dublin City University Business School, DCU, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland
b The Insight Centre for Data Analytics, DCU, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland
Abstract
Sentiment is shown to influence both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and
Brent futures prices during the period 2002 - 2013. This is demonstrated while
controlling for stock indices, exchange rates, financial costs, inventory and
supply levels as well as OPEC activity. Sentiment indices are developed for WTI
and Brent crude oils using a suite of financial proxies similar to those used in
equity research where the influence of sentiment has already been
established. Given the novel nature of this study, multiple hypothesis testing
techniques are used to ensure that these conclusions are statistically robust.
JEL Classification: C12, C22, C52, Q43
Keywords: market sentiment, crude oil, energy, multiple hypothesis testing
*Corresponding Author is Peter Deeney, [email protected] at QG24, Dublin City
University Business School, DCU, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland +35317005742
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (Peter Deeney), [email protected]
(Mark Cummins) , [email protected] (Michael Dowling) , and
[email protected] (Adam Bermingham)
1
This material is based upon works supported by Dublin City University under the Daniel
O'Hare Research Scholarship scheme awarded to Peter Deeney. 2 Adam Bermingham of The Insight Centre for Data Analytics based in Dublin City University
is supported by Science Foundation Ireland under Grant Number SFI/12/RC/2289.
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❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥ ❖✐❧ ▼❛*❦❡#,
❆❜"#$❛❝#
❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐& &❤♦✇♥ #♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❜♦#❤ ❲❡&# ❚❡①❛& ■♥#❡3♠❡❞✐❛#❡ ✭❲❚■✮ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❢✉#✉3❡&
♣3✐❝❡& ❞✉3✐♥❣ #❤❡ ♣❡3✐♦❞ ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❚❤✐& ✐& ❞❡♠♦♥❛#❡❞ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❝♦♥#3♦❧❧✐♥❣ ❢♦3 &#♦❝❦
✐♥❞✐❝❡&✱ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ 3❛#❡&✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦&#&✱ ✐♥✈❡♥#♦3② ❛♥❞ &✉♣♣❧② ❧❡✈❡❧& ❛& ✇❡❧❧ ❛& ❖H❊❈
❛❝#✐✈✐#②✳ ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡& ❛3❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❢♦3 ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧& ✉&✐♥❣ ❛ &✉✐#❡ ♦❢
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣3♦①✐❡& &✐♠✐❧❛3 #♦ #❤♦&❡ ✉&❡❞ ✐♥ ❡K✉✐#② 3❡&❡❛3❝❤ ✇❤❡3❡ #❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ &❡♥#✐♠❡♥#
❤❛& ❛❧3❡❛❞② ❜❡❡♥ ❡&#❛❜❧✐&❤❡❞✳ ●✐✈❡♥ #❤❡ ♥♦✈❡❧ ♥❛#✉3❡ ♦❢ #❤✐& &#✉❞②✱ ♠✉❧#✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦#❤❡&✐&
#❡&#✐♥❣ #❡❝❤♥✐K✉❡& ❛3❡ ✉&❡❞ #♦ ❡♥&✉3❡ #❤❛# #❤❡&❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉&✐♦♥& ❛3❡ &#❛#✐&#✐❝❛❧❧② 3♦❜✉&#✳
❑❡②✇♦%❞'✿ ♠❛3❦❡# &❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✱ ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧✱ ❡♥❡3❣②✱ ♠✉❧#✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦#❤❡&✐& #❡&#✐♥❣✳
❏❊▲ ❈❧❛''✐✜❝❛2✐♦♥ ❈✶✷✱ ❈✷✷✱ ❈✺✷✱ ◗✹✸
❍✐❣❤❧✐❣❤2'✳
• ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉#✉3❡& ♣3✐❝❡& ❢3♦♠ ❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✷ #♦ ❉❡❝ ✷✵✶✸ ❛3❡ ❡①❛♠✐♥❡❞✳
• ❆ &❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ✐& ❝♦♥✉❝#❡❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❇❛❦❡3 ❛♥❞ ❲✉3❣❧❡3 ✭✷✵✵✻✮✳
• ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐& ❢♦✉♥❞ #♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣3✐❝❡&✳
• ❘❡&✉❧#& ❛3❡ &#❛#✐&#✐❝❛❧❧② 3♦❜✉&# ✉&✐♥❣ ♠✉❧#✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦#❤❡&✐& #❡&#✐♥❣✳
!❡♣!✐♥& '✉❜♠✐&&❡❞ &♦ ■♥&❡!♥❛&✐♦♥❛❧ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❆♥❛❧②'✐' ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡! ✶✱ ✷✵✶✹
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✶✳ ■♥$%♦❞✉❝$✐♦♥
❚❤✐# $❡#❡❛$❝❤ ✐# ♠♦*✐✈❛*❡❞ ❜② ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡# *❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦✉$ ♦❢
*❤❡ #*♦❝❦ ♠❛$❦❡*#✳ ❲❡ #❤♦✇ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡# ♣$✐❝❡# ✐♥ *❤❡ ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧❧②✲
*$❛❞❡❞ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*# ❜② ♠❡❛#✉$✐♥❣ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✉#✐♥❣ ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❝♦♥#*$✉❝*❡❞ ❢$♦♠ ❛ #✉✐*❡ ♦❢
❛♣♣$♦♣$✐❛*❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡* ♣$♦①✐❡#✳ ❚❤❡#❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❢♦$ ❲❡#* ❚❡①❛# ■♥*❡$♠❡❞✐❛*❡
✭❲❚■✮ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥* ❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧# #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥*❧② ✐♠♣$♦✈❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡# ❢♦$
❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧ ❞✉$✐♥❣ *❤❡ ♣❡$✐♦❞ ❏❛♥✉❛$② ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡$ ✷✵✶✸✳
❙❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ♥♦* ♦♥❧② ❛ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ♦❜#❡$✈❡❞ ❜② ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧ *$❛❞❡$# ❜✉* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥*
✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡# ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧ *$❛❞❡$#✳ ❖✬❈♦♥♥❡❧❧ ❛♥❞ ❚❡♦ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❞❡♠♦♥#*$❛*❡ *$❛❞❡$ ♦✈❡$❝♦♥✲
✜❞❡♥❝❡❀ ❈♦❛*❡# ❛♥❞ ❍❡$❜❡$* ✭✷✵✵✽✮ #❤♦✇ ❛ ❧✐♥❦ ❜❡*✇❡❡♥ *❡#*♦#*❡$♦♥❡ ❧❡✈❡❧# ❛♥❞ *$❛❞✐♥❣
♦✉*❝♦♠❡#❀ ❋$♦♦* ❡* ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ #❤♦✇ *❤❛* ❝✉$$❡♥* *$❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥# ❛$❡ #✉❜❥❡❝* *♦ #❡♥#✐✲
*✐✈✐*② *♦ ♣❛#* ♣♦$*❢♦❧✐♦ ❧♦##❡#✱ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛ $❡❝❡♥* R✉❛❧✐*❛*✐✈❡ #*✉❞② ❜② ❋❡♥*♦♥✲❖✬❈$❡❡✈② ❡* ❛❧✳
✭✷✵✶✶✮ ♦❢ ✶✶✽ ❯❑✲❜❛#❡❞ ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧ *$❛❞❡$# ✐♥ ❡R✉✐*②✱ ❜♦♥❞✱ ❛♥❞ ❞❡$✐✈❛*✐✈❡# ♠❛$❦❡*#
✜♥❞# *❤❛* *$❛❞❡$# ❛❧❧♦✇ ❡♠♦*✐♦♥# *♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ *❤❡✐$ *$❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥✲♠❛❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛♥♥❡$
*❤❛* ❞❡✈✐❛*❡# ❢$♦♠ ♣✉$❡❧② $❛*✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥✲♠❛❦✐♥❣✳
❙❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ❦♥♦✇♥ *♦ ❡①✐#* ✐♥ *❤❡ ❡R✉✐*② ♠❛$❦❡*#✳ ❙❝❤♠❡❧✐♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ $❡♣♦$*# *❤❛*
#❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ❤❛# ❛ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥* ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ #*♦❝❦ ♠❛$❦❡* $❡*✉$♥# ❛❝$♦## ♠❛♥② ✐♥❞✉#*$✐❛❧✐#❡❞
❝♦✉♥*$✐❡# ❛♥❞ ❤❛# ❛ ❣$❡❛*❡$ ❡✛❡❝* ♦♥ ❝♦✉♥*$✐❡# ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❛✈❡ ❧❡## ♠❛$❦❡* ✐♥*❡❣$✐*② ❛♥❞ ♠♦$❡
❤❡$❞✲❧✐❦❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦✉$ ❢$♦♠ ✐♥✈❡#*♦$#✳ ❚❤❡ ✇♦$❦ ♦❢ ❇❛❦❡$ ❛♥❞ ❲✉$❣❧❡$ ✭✷✵✵✻✮ #❤♦✇# *❤❛*
#❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ♠♦#* ✐♥✢✉❡♥*✐❛❧ ♦♥ ✜$♠# ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛$❡ ❞✐✣❝✉❧* *♦ ✈❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤✐# ❝♦♥✜$♠❡❞ *❤❡
✇♦$❦ ♦❢ ❇❛$❜❡$✐#✱ ❙❤❧❡✐❢❡$ ❛♥❞ ❱✐#❤♥② ✭✶✾✾✽✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ #❤♦✇# *❤❛* ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥# ♠❛❞❡ $❡❣❛$❞✐♥❣
✐♥✈❡#*♠❡♥* ❛$❡ ❛* *✐♠❡# ❜✐❛#❡❞ ❛♥❞ #✉❜❥❡❝* *♦ #②#*❡♠❛*✐❝ ❡$$♦$#✳ ❚❤❡#❡ ❡✛❡❝*# ❛$❡ ♥♦*
$❡♠♦✈❡❞ ❜② ❛$❜✐*$❛❣❡ ❞✉❡ *♦ *❤❡ ❧✐♠✐*# *♦ ❛$❜✐*$❛❣❡ ❡♥❝♦✉♥*❡$❡❞ ✐♥ *❤❡ ❡R✉✐*② ♠❛$❦❡*#
❛# ❞❡#❝$✐❜❡❞ ❜② ❇❛$❜❡$✐# ❛♥❞ ❚❤❛❧❡$ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✳
❲❛♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ #❤♦✇# *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ❛❝*✐✈❡ ✐♥ *❤❡ ❛❣$✐❝✉❧*✉$❛❧ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐*② ♠❛$❦❡*#✳
❇♦$♦✈❦♦✈❛ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❞❡♠♦♥#*$❛*❡# *❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥ *❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*# ❜② #❤♦✇✐♥❣
*❤❛* *❤❡ #❤❛♣❡ ♦❢ *❤❡ ❢♦$✇❛$❞ ❝✉$✈❡ ✐# ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② ✈❡$② #*$♦♥❣ ♦$ ✈❡$② ✇❡❛❦ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥*
❛# ♠❡❛#✉$❡❞ ❜② *❤❡ ❚❤♦♠#♦♥ ❘❡✉*❡$# ◆❡✇#❙❝♦♣❡ ♣$♦❞✉❝*✳
✶
❉♦✇❧✐♥❣✱ ❈✉♠♠✐♥# ❛♥❞
▲✉❝❡② ✭✷✵✶✹✮ #❤♦✇ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢♦$ *❤❡ ❡①✐#*❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣#②❝❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ♣$✐❝❡ ❜❛$$✐❡$# ✐♥ *❤❡
❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*#✳ ❇♦$♦✈❦♦✈❛ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❉♦✇❧✐♥❣✱ ❈✉♠♠✐♥# ❛♥❞ ▲✉❝❡② ✭✷✵✶✹✮ #❤♦✇
*❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ✐♥✢✉❡♥*✐❛❧ ✐♥ *❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡$✱ *❤❡#❡ ♣❛♣❡$# ❞♦ ♥♦* ❝♦♥#✐❞❡$
*❤❡ ✇❤♦❧❡ $❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥*✳ ❲❡ #❤♦✇ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ❝❛♥ ❜❡ R✉❛♥*✐✜❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉#❡❞ *♦
❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♣$✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥*#✳ ■♥ *❤✐# ✐♥✈❡#*✐❣❛*✐♦♥ ✇❡ ✉#❡ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧#
❢♦$ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥* ❛♥❞ *$❡❛* ✐* ❛# ❛♥ ❛❞❞✐*✐♦♥❛❧ ✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡ *♦ *❤❡ ❝❤♦#❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧
✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡#✳ ■♥ ❞♦✐♥❣ #♦ ✇❡ ❛❞❞ *♦ *❤❡ ❧✐*❡$❛*✉$❡ #❤♦✇✐♥❣ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ❞♦❡# ♥♦* ❥✉#* ❤❛✈❡
❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ❡①*$❡♠❡ ♦$ ✐♥ #♣❡❝✐✜❝ ❝✐$❝✉♠#*❛♥❝❡# ❜✉* ❤❛# ❛ ✇✐❞❡#♣$❡❛❞ ♠❡❛#✉$❛❜❧❡
❡✛❡❝*✳
❲❡ ♣$♦♣♦#❡ *❤❛* *❤❡$❡ ✐# #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥ *❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*# ❜❡❝❛✉#❡ ♦❢ *❤❡ ♥❡❡❞ ❢♦$ #♣❡❝✲
✶
❚❤♦♠$♦♥ ❘❡✉)❡*$ ◆❡✇$❝♦♣❡ ♠❡❛$✉*❡$ )❤❡ $❡♥)✐♠❡♥) ♦❢ )❤❡ )❡①) ✐♥ ♥❡✇$ *❡♣♦*)$ ✉$✐♥❣ ❛ ♣*♦♣*✐❡)❛*②
$❡♥)✐♠❡♥) ❡♥❣✐♥❡✱ )❤❡ ❞❡)❛✐❧$ ♦❢ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛*❡ ♥♦) ♣✉❜❧✐❝❧② ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✳
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
✉❧❛#✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❜❡❝❛✉+❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦-♠❛#✐♦♥ ❛+②♠♠❡#-② ❜❡#✇❡❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ♦#❤❡-
♠❛-❦❡# ♣❛-#✐❝✐♣❛♥#+✳ ▲♦♥❣ ❛♥❞ +❤♦-# ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ❛❝#✐✈✐#② ✐♥ #❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛-❦❡#+ ✐+ ♥♦# ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❞
✭❍✐-+❤❧❡✐❢❡-✱ ✶✾✾✵✮✳ ❖✐❧ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❛-❡ ✈✉❧♥❡-❛❜❧❡ #♦ ✉♥❡①♣❡❝#❡❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡+ ✐♥ #❤❡ ♣-✐❝❡
♦❢ ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ ♥❡❡❞ +❤♦-# ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡-✱ ♦✐❧ ❝♦♥+✉♠❡-+ ❛-❡ ❧❡++ ✈✉❧♥❡-❛❜❧❡ ❛+
#❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ♠❛♥② ♦#❤❡- ❝♦+# ♣♦♦❧+ ✐♥ ❛❞❞✐#✐♦♥ #♦ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡+ ❛♥❞ +♦ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ❧❡++❡- ♥❡❡❞ ❢♦-
❧♦♥❣ ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+✳ ❚❤✐+ ✐+ ✐♥ ❦❡❡♣✐♥❣ ✇✐#❤ ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣-❡++✉-❡ #❤❡♦-② ❢-♦♠ ❑❡②♥❡+
✭✶✾✸✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❍✐❝❦+ ✭✶✾✸✾✮✳ ❚❤✉+ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ +✐#✉❛#✐♦♥ ✇❤❡-❡ +♣❡❝✉❧❛#♦-+ ♣-♦✈✐❞❡ ✐♥+✉-✲
❛♥❝❡ #♦ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❜② #❛❦✐♥❣ #❤❡ ❡①❝❡++ ❧♦♥❣ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+ ♥♦# #❛❦❡♥ ❜② ❝♦♥+✉♠❡-+✱ ❜✉# ♦♥❧②
♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❤❛✈❡ ❛❝❝❡++ #♦ ❛❧❧ #❤❡ ✐♥❢♦-♠❛#✐♦♥ -❡❣❛-❞✐♥❣ ♦✐❧ -❡+❡-✈❡+ ❛♥❞ +✉♣♣❧② ✐++✉❡+✳
❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥ ✭✷✵✶✶✮✱ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✱ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❈✐❢❛-❡❧❧✐ ❛♥❞ I❛❧❛❞✐♥♦
✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛❧❧ +❤♦✇ #❤❛# +♣❡❝✉❧❛#✐♦♥ ✐+ ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦-#❛♥# ❞-✐✈❡- ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡+✳ ❆+ ✇✐#❤ #❤❡
❡K✉✐#② ♠❛-❦❡#+ #❤❡-❡ ❛-❡ ❧✐♠✐#+ #♦ ❛-❜✐#-❛❣❡✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② #❤❡ +✐③❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+ #-❛❞❡-+ ❛-❡
♣❡-♠✐##❡❞ #♦ #❛❦❡ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ +✐③❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♠❛-❣✐♥ ❝❛❧❧+ ✇❤✐❝❤ #-❛❞❡-+ ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❝✉- ✇❤✐❧❡ #❤❡②
✇❛✐# ❢♦- #❤❡✐- ♣-♦✜#+ #♦ ♠❛#❡-✐❛❧✐③❡✳ ❆❝❤❛-②❛✱ ▲♦❝❤+#♦❡- ❛♥❞ ❘❛♠❛❞♦-❛✐ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ♠❛❦❡
✐# ❝❧❡❛- #❤❛# #❤❡ ❧✐♠✐#+ ✐♠♣♦+❡❞ ❜② ♠❛-❣✐♥ ❝❛❧❧+ ♠❛❦❡ ❛-❜✐#-❛❣❡ ♣❛-#✐❛❧❧② ✐♥❡✛❡❝#✐✈❡ ✐♥
#❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛-❦❡#+✳ ❚❤❡-❡❢♦-❡ ❛-❜✐#-❛❣❡ ✐+ ❧✐♠✐#❡❞ ✐♥ ✐#+ ❛❜✐❧✐#② #♦ -❡♠♦✈❡ #❤❡ ❡✛❡❝# ♦❢
+❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✳
❋♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ #❤❡ ♠❡#❤♦❞+ ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ ❜② ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱ ▲❡♠♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ I♦-#✲
♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛ ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❛♥❞ ❇❛❦❡-✱ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ❛♥❞ ❨✉❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✐♥ #❤❡✐- ❛♥❛❧②+✐+ ♦❢ #❤❡ ❡K✉✐#②
♠❛-❦❡#+✱ ✇❡ ❜✉✐❧❞ ❛ +✐♠✐❧❛- ♦✐❧ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❛-❡ #❤❡ ♣❡-❢♦-♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥#❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❜❡❢♦-❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❢#❡- #❤✐+ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❤❛+ ❜❡❡♥ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞✳ I-♦♠♣#
♠♦♥#❤ ❢✉#✉-❡+ ♦❢ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥# ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧+ ❛-❡ ✉+❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛-② ✷✵✵✷ #♦ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡-
✷✵✶✸ ❛# ♠♦♥#❤❧② ❢-❡K✉❡♥❝②✳
❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ✉+❡❞ #❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ♣-♦①✐❡+ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡K✉✐#② ❝♦♥#❡①#✿
✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ #-❛❞❡+✱ ♠❛-❦❡# ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#②✱ ❝❧♦+❡❞ ❡♥❞ ❢✉♥❞ ❞✐+❝♦✉♥#✱ ■I❖ ♥✉♠❜❡- ❛♥❞ ♦♣❡♥✐♥❣
-❡#✉-♥+✱ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ♣✉# ❝❛❧❧ -❛#✐♦✳ ◆♦♥❡ ♦❢ #❤❡+❡ ✇❛+✱ ♦♥ #❤❡✐- ♦✇♥✱ ❛ +✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❡❛+✉-❡ ♦❢
+❡♥#✐♠❡♥#❀ ❡❛❝❤ ❤❛❞ ❛♥ ✐❞✐♦+②♥❝-❛#✐❝ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ❜✉# ❛ ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ❛♥❛❧②+✐+
✭I❈❆✮ ✇❛+ ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ #♦ ❡①#-❛❝# #❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ +✐❣♥❛❧✳ ■♥ #❤✐+ ✐♥✈❡+#✐❣❛#✐♦♥ ✇❡ ✉+❡✿ #❤❡
✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉#✉-❡+ #-❛❞❡❞✱ #❤❡ ❤✐+#♦-✐❝ ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#② ♦❢ #❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡✱ #❤❡ ♣✉#✲❝❛❧❧ -❛#✐♦
♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♦♣#✐♦♥+✱ #❤❡ -❛#✐♦ ♦❢ +♣❡❝✉❧❛#✐✈❡ #-❛❞❡+ #♦ ♦✐❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#②
♦❢ ❛ ❧♦❝❛❧ +#♦❝❦ ♠❛-❦❡# ✐♥❞❡①✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② #❤❡ ❙✫I ✺✵✵ ❢♦- ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ❊✉-♦ ❙#♦①① ✺✵
❢♦- ❇-❡♥#✳ ◆♦♥❡ ♦❢ #❤❡+❡ ✐+ ❛ ♣✉-❡ ♠❡❛+✉-❡ ♦❢ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ❜✉#✱ ✇❡ ✉+❡ ❛ I❈❆ ♣-♦❝❡++ #♦
❡①#-❛❝# #❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ +✐❣♥❛❧ +✐♠✐❧❛- #♦ ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮✳
❚❤❡ +❡❧❡❝#❡❞ ♣-♦①✐❡+ ❢♦- ❲❚■ ♦- ❇-❡♥# ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❛-❡ ❡♥#❡-❡❞ ✐♥#♦ ❛ ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦✲
♥❡♥# ❛♥❛❧②+✐+✱ #❤❡ ✜-+# ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ♦❢ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐+ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛+ #❤❡ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡①
❢♦- ❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧✳ ■# ✐+ ❡+#❛❜❧✐+❤❡❞ #❤❛# ❧♦✇ ❝♦--❡❧❛#✐♦♥+ ❡①✐+# ❜❡#✇❡❡♥ ❝❤❛♥❣❡+ ✐♥ #❤❡ +❡♥#✐✲
♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡+ ✐♥ ❛ -❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥#❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈❛-✐❛❜❧❡+✱ +❤♦✇✐♥❣
#❤❛# #❤❡ ❡✛❡❝#✐✈❡♥❡++ ♦❢ #❤❡+❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ✐+ ♥♦# ❛ ❝♦♥+❡K✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥#❛❧ ✐♥❢♦-♠❛#✐♦♥✳
❆+ #❤❡+❡ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❛-❡ ❡①#-❛❝#❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ♣-♦①✐❡+ ❢♦- +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# +✐♠✐❧❛- #♦ ♣-♦①✐❡+
✉+❡❞ ✐♥ ❡K✉✐#✐❡+ -❡+❡❛-❝❤✱ ✐# ✐+ -❡❛+♦♥❛❜❧② ❛-❣✉❡❞ #❤❛# #❤❡+❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❛-❡ ♠❡❛+✉-✐♥❣ ♦✐❧
♠❛-❦❡# +❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✳
❚♦ #❡+# #❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❢♦- ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥# ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧✱ ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥❞❡①
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✐! ❛❞❞❡❞ %♦ ❛ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝♦♥!✐!%✐♥❣ ♦❢ ♥♦♥ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡!✳ ❚❤❡ ❡✛❡❝%
♦❢ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡! ✐! %❤❡♥ ❡✈❛❧✉❛%❡❞ !%❛%✐!%✐❝❛❧❧② ✇❤✐❧❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝✐%❧② ❝♦♥%,♦❧❧✐♥❣ ❢♦,
❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡! %❤❛% ❛,❡ ❦♥♦✇♥ %♦ ❞,✐✈❡ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡!✳ ❚❤❡!❡ ❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧
❞,✐✈❡,! ❛,❡✿
❜,♦❛❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♣❡,❢♦,♠❛♥❝❡ ❛! ♠❡❛!✉,❡❞ ❜② !%♦❝❦ ✐♥❞❡① ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥%!✱ ✇❡ ✉!❡ %❤❡
❙✫> ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉,♦ ❙%♦①① ✺✵✱ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ❛♥❞ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ✇❤✐❝❤ ,❡♣,❡!❡♥% %❤❡ ❯❙✱ %❤❡ ❊✉,♦③♦♥❡✱
❈❤✐♥❛ ❛♥❞ ❏❛♣❛♥ %❤❡ ✇♦,❧❞✬! ❢♦✉, ❧❛,❣❡!% ❝♦♥!✉♠❡,! ♦❢ ♦✐❧✱ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ▲✐ ❛♥❞ ▲✐♥ ✭✷✵✶✶✮❀
✶✳ %❤❡ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛, ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡! ❢♦, %❤❡ !%♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✉!❡❞ ✐♥ ✭✐✮✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦✱
❏❛♣❛♥❡!❡ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛, ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❘❡❜♦,❡❞♦ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✱ ❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥ ❛♥❞
❈③✉❞❛❥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ❛♥❞ ❇,❛❤♠❛!,❡♥❡✱ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❙✐!!♦❦♦ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ✇❤♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%❡ ❛ ❞✐,❡❝%
❝♦♥♥❡❝%✐♦♥ ❜❡%✇❡❡♥ ❢♦,❡✐❣♥ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡! ❛♥❞ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡!❀
✷✳ %❤❡ ❇❛❧%✐❝ ❉,② ■♥❞❡① ✭❇❉■✮✱ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮❀
✸✳ %❤❡ ❝♦!% ♦❢ ❝♦,♣♦,❛%❡ ❞❡❜%✱ ✇❤❡,❡ ✇❡ ✉!❡ ▼♦♦❞②✬! ❆❛❛ ❛! ❛ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ❝♦,♣♦,❛%❡
❜♦♥❞ ,❛%❡✱ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮❀
✹✳ %❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥%♦,② ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❲♦,❧❞ ♦✐❧ !✉♣♣❧②✱ ❛♥❞
✺✳ ❖>❊❈✬! !♣❛,❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐%② ❛♥❞ ♣,♦♣♦,%✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦,❧❞ ♣,♦❞✉❝%✐♦♥ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥
✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ▲✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐! ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✳
❚♦ ✐♥❢♦,♠❛❧❧② ♠❡❛!✉,❡ %❤❡ ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛%❡ %❤❡
❛❞❥✉!%❡❞ ❘
2❛♥❞ ❋✲%❡!% ,❡!✉❧%!❀ %❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ,❛%✐♦ %❡!% ✐! ✉!❡❞ %♦ ❢♦,♠❛❧❧② %❡!% ✇❤❡%❤❡,
%❤❡ ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧! ❛❢%❡, %❤❡ ✐♥❝❧✉!✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✐! !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%
♦, ♥♦%✳ ❆! ✇❡ ♣❡,❢♦,♠ ✾✷ !✐♠✉❧%❛♥❡♦✉! ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%!✱ ✐% ✐! ♥❡❝❡!!❛,② %♦ ❛❞❞,❡!! %❤❡
♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛,✐!♦♥ ♣,♦❜❧❡♠✳ ❚❤❛% ✐!✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛♥② ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%! ❛,❡ ❜❡✐♥❣ ❝❛,,✐❡❞
♦✉% !✐♠✉❧%❛♥❡♦✉!❧② %❤❡,❡ ✐! ❛ ♣,♦❜❛❜✐❧✐%② %❤❛% !♦♠❡ ♥✉❧❧ ❤②♣♦%❤❡!❡! ♠❛② ❜❡ ,❡❥❡❝%❡❞
❢❛❧!❡❧②✳ ❚❤✐! ✐! ❛❞❞,❡!!❡❞ ✇✐%❤ ❛ ❣❡♥❡,❛❧✐!❡❞ ✈❡,!✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ ♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%✐♥❣
♣,♦❝❡❞✉,❡ ♦❢ ❍♦❧♠ ✭✶✾✼✾✮✳
❚❤❡ ,❡♠❛✐♥❞❡, ♦❢ %❤❡ ♣❛♣❡, ✐! !❡% ♦✉% ❛! ❢♦❧❧♦✇!✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✷ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥! %❤❡ !❡❧❡❝%✐♦♥
♦❢ %❤❡ ♣,♦①✐❡! ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ♠❡%❤♦❞ ❜② ✇❤✐❝❤ ♣,✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥% ❛♥❛❧②!❡! ✇❡,❡ ✉!❡❞ %♦
❢♦,♠ %❤❡ ♦✐❧ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥%✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✸ !❤♦✇! %❤❡ ♠❡%❤♦❞! ✉!❡❞
❢♦, ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ %❤❡ ❢✉❡❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♠♦❞❡❧! ❛❣❛✐♥!% ✇❤✐❝❤ %❤❡ %✇♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡
%❡!%❡❞✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✹ ♣,❡!❡♥%! %❤❡ ❡♠♣✐,✐❝❛❧ ,❡!✉❧%! ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ❝,✉❞❡ ♦✐❧! ❛♥❞
❞❡♠♦♥!%,❛%❡! %❤❡ ,♦❜✉!%♥❡!! ♦❢ ♦✉, ✜♥❞✐♥❣ %❤❛% !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡! ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡! ✉!✐♥❣ ❛
♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%✐♥❣ ✭▼❍❚✮ ❢,❛♠❡✇♦,❦✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✺ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡!✳
✷✳ ❈#❡❛&✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦✐❧ ,❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ✐♥❞❡①
■♥ %❤✐! !❡❝%✐♦♥ %❤❡ ♠❡%❤♦❞ ♦❢ ❝♦♥!%,✉❝%✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦✐❧ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞❡① ✐! ❞❡!❝,✐❜❡❞✳ ❚❤❡
❝♦♥!%,✉❝%✐♦♥ ✐♥✈♦❧✈❡! ❝♦♠❜✐♥✐♥❣ ♣,♦①✐❡! ❢♦, !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✉!✐♥❣ >❈❆✱ ❛! ✉!❡❞ ❜② ❇❛❦❡,
❛♥❞ ❙%❡✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ❇❛❦❡, ❛♥❞ ❲✉,❣❧❡, ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱ ▲❡♠♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ >♦,%♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛ ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱ ❛♥❞
▼✐❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙❛♥❦❛,❛❣✉,✉!✇❛♠② ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✇❤♦ ❡①❛♠✐♥❡ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥ %❤❡ ❡c✉✐%✐❡! ♠❛,❦❡%✳
❚❤❡ ♣,♦①✐❡! ✉!❡❞ ❢♦, %❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛,❦❡%! ❛,❡ !❡❧❡❝%❡❞ !♦ ❛! %♦ ❜❡ !✐♠✐❧❛, %♦ %❤♦!❡ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❛✈❡
❜❡❡♥ ✉!❡❞ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✐♥ ❡c✉✐%② ,❡!❡❛,❝❤✳
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
✷✳✶✳ ❙❡❧❡❝'✐♥❣ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ -❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ♣0♦①✐❡-
❊!✉✐$✐❡& '❡&❡❛'❝❤ ✉&❡& ❛ ✇✐❞❡ ✈❛'✐❡$② ♦❢ ♣'♦①✐❡& ❢♦' &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$✳ ◆♦♥❡ ♦❢ $❤❡&❡ ♣'♦①✐❡&
❛'❡ ❛ ♣❡'❢❡❝$ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❜✉$ $❤❡② ❛'❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ✉&✐♥❣ ♣'✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$
❛♥❛❧②&✐& ✭;❈❆✮ $♦ ♣'♦❞✉❝❡ ✉&❡❢✉❧ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞✐❝❡&✳ ■♥ $❤❡ &❛♠❡ ✇❛② ♣'♦①✐❡& ❢♦' &❡♥✲
$✐♠❡♥$ ❛'❡ ❝❤♦&❡♥ ❢'♦♠ $❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❞❛$❛ ❛♥❞ ❛'❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ✉&✐♥❣ ;❈❆ $♦ ❢♦'♠ ❛
&❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦' ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❢♦' ❇'❡♥$ ❝'✉❞❡ ♦✐❧&✳
❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❲✉'❣❧❡' ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ✉&❡ $❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ♣'♦①✐❡& ◆❨❙❊ $✉'♥♦✈❡'✱ ❝❧♦&❡❞ ❡♥❞
❢✉♥❞ ❞✐&❝♦✉♥$✱ ♥✉♠❜❡' ♦❢ ❛♥❞ ❛✈❡'❛❣❡ ✜'&$ ❞❛② '❡$✉'♥ ♦❢ ■;❖&✱ &❤❛'❡ ♦❢ ❡!✉✐$② ✐&&✉❡& ✐♥
$♦$❛❧ ❡!✉✐$② ❛♥❞ ❞❡❜$ ✐&&✉❡& ❛♥❞ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ♣'❡♠✐✉♠✳ ❚❤❡&❡ ❛'❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ $❤❡ ;❈❆
♣'♦❝❡&& $♦ ♣'♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞❡①✳ ❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❲✉'❣❧❡' ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ $❤❛$ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❡❛❝❤
♣'♦①② ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥$❛✐♥ ❛♥ ✐❞✐♦&②♥❝'❛$✐❝ ❛& ✇❡❧❧ ❛& &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$✱ $❤❡ ;❈❆ ✐&♦❧❛$❡&
$❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$✳ ❲❡ ❝❤♦&❡ ❛♣♣'♦♣'✐❛$❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛'❦❡$ ♣'♦①✐❡& ❜❛&❡❞ ♦♥
&❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ '❡&❡❛'❝❤ ✐♥ ❡!✉✐$✐❡& ✇❤✐❝❤ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❛❝$✐✈✐$②✱ ♦✐❧ ♣'✐❝❡ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$②✱ ♠❛'❦❡$
❢❡❛'✱ &♣❡❝✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❣❡♥❡'❛❧ &$♦❝❦ ♠❛'❦❡$ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$②✳ ❚❤❡&❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡& ❛'❡ &✉♣♣♦'$❡❞ ❢'♦♠
✇✐$❤✐♥ $❤❡ ❧✐$❡'❛$✉'❡ ❛& &❡$ ♦✉$ ❜❡❧♦✇ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✳ ❚❤❡ ♣'♦①✐❡& &❡❧❡❝$❡❞ $♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ $❤❡
♦✐❧ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞✐❝❡& ❛'❡ &♣❡❝✐✜❝ $♦ ❡❛❝❤ ❝'✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❛& ❢♦❧❧♦✇&✿
✶✳ $❤❡ $'❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ $❤❡ ♣'♦♠♣$✲♠♦♥$❤ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❝♦♥$'❛❝$
✷✳ $❤❡ ✸✵✲❞❛② ❤✐&$♦'✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♦❢ $❤❡ ♣'♦♠♣$✲♠♦♥$❤ ❢✉$✉'❡& ♣'✐❝❡
✸✳ $❤❡ ♣✉$ ❝❛❧❧ '❛$✐♦ ❢♦' ♦♣$✐♦♥& ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ❢✉$✉'❡&
✹✳ ❛♥ ♦✐❧ &♣❡❝✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛$♦'✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② $❤❡ '❛$✐♦ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡'❝✐❛❧ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❛♥❞ ♦♣✲
$✐♦♥& ♣♦&✐$✐♦♥& $♦ ♦✐❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✱ ❛♥❞
✺✳ ❛ ❣❡♦❣'❛♣❤✐❝❛❧❧② ❛♣♣'♦♣'✐❛$❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ✐♥❞❡① ✭❱■❳ ❢♦' ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ $❤❡
✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♦❢ $❤❡ ❊✉'♦ ❙$♦①① ✺✵ ❢♦' ❇'❡♥$✮✳
❱♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ $'❛❞❡& ❛'❡ ✉&❡❞ ❛& ❛ ♣'♦①② ❢♦' ✐♥✈❡&$♦' &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❜② ❙❝❤❡✐♥❦♠❛♥ ❛♥❞
❳✐♦♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✱ ❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❙$❡✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❲✉'❣❧❡' ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ❛♥❞ ❈❛♥❜❛➩ ❛♥❞
❑❛♥❞✙' ✭✷✵✵✾✮✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ ✐$ ✐& ❝❧❡❛' $❤❛$ $❤❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ $'❛❞❡& ✐& ❛ ❞✐'❡❝$ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$
❛❝$✐✈✐$②✱ $❤❡ ❧✐$❡'❛$✉'❡ &❤♦✇& $❤❛$ ✐$ ✐& ❛❧&♦ ❛♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛$♦' ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$✳
❱♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ✐& ❝♦♥&✐❞❡'❡❞ $♦ ❜❡ ❛ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❢❡❛' ❜② ❲❤❛❧❡② ✭✷✵✵✵✮✱ ❤❡♥❝❡
$❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ❛& ❛ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ♣'♦①② ❢♦' ❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧✳ ❚❤❡ ♦✐❧✲❜❛&❡❞
✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ✭❖❱❳✮ ✇❛& ♥♦$ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦' $❤❡ ✶✷ ②❡❛'& '❡!✉✐'❡❞✳ ❍❡♥❝❡
$❤❡ ✸✵✲❞❛② ❤✐&$♦'✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♦❢ $❤❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉$✉'❡& ♣'✐❝❡ ✐& ✉&❡❞✳ ❚❤✐& ✐& ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛$❡❞ ❛& $❤❡
&$❛♥❞❛'❞ ❞❡✈✐❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ $❤❡ ❧♦❣ ♣'✐❝❡ '❡$✉'♥& ❢♦' $❤❡ ♣'❡✈✐♦✉& ✸✵ $'❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②& ❢♦' ♣'♦♠♣$
♠♦♥$❤ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❝♦♥$'❛❝$&✳ ❚❤✐'$②✲❞❛② ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$②✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✉&❡& ❛♣♣'♦①✐♠❛$❡❧② $❤❡ ♣'❡✈✐♦✉&
♠♦♥$❤✲❛♥❞✲❛✲❤❛❧❢ ♦❢ ♣'✐❝❡ ❞❛$❛✱ ✇❛& ❝❤♦&❡♥ ❛& ✐$ ✐& ❛ '❡❛&♦♥❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♠♣'♦♠✐&❡ ❜❡$✇❡❡♥ $❤❡
♠❡❛&✉'❡♠❡♥$ ♦❢ $❤❡ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ❜❡✐♥❣ ❛❝❝✉'❛$❡ ❛♥❞ ❜❡✐♥❣ ❝✉''❡♥$✳ ❚❤❡ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ✜❣✉'❡&
❛'❡ ♦❜$❛✐♥❡❞ ❢'♦♠ ❇❧♦♦♠❜❡'❣ ▲; ❛♥❞ ❛'❡ $❤❡ &❡❝♦♥❞ ♣'♦①②✳
❚❤❡ ♣✉$✲❝❛❧❧ '❛$✐♦ ❤❛& ❜❡❡♥ ✉&❡❞ ❛& ❛ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❢❡❛' ✐♥ ❡!✉✐$② '❡&❡❛'❝❤✱ ❢♦'
❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❜② ❇❛$❤✐❛ ❛♥❞ ❇'❡❞✐♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♣✉$✲❝❛❧❧ '❛$✐♦ ❢♦' ♦✐❧ ❢✉$✉'❡& ♦♣$✐♦♥& ✐& $❤❡
$❤✐'❞ ♣'♦①②✳ ❚❤❡ ❞❛$❛ ✉&❡❞ ✐& $❤❡ ❛❣❣'❡❣❛$❡❞ ♦♣❡♥ ✐♥$❡'❡&$ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❢'♦♠ ❇❧♦♦♠❜❡'❣ ▲;✳
❙♣❡❝✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ✇❛& ♠❡❛&✉'❡❞ ❜② ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ❛♥❞ ❇✉♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈❤❡♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ✉&✐♥❣
$❤❡ ❝❤✉'♥ '❛$✐♦✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇❛& $❤❡ '❛$✐♦ ♦❢ $❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡' ♦❢ ❢♦'✇❛'❞& ♦' ❢✉$✉'❡& ❝♦♥$'❛❝$&
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▼❡❛#✉%❡ ❊'✉✐)② +%♦①② ❖✐❧ +%♦①② ❘❡❢❡%❡♥❝❡#
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2%♦❝❦ ♠❛"❦❡%
❱♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢
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❢✉%✉"❡2
❙❝❤❡✐♥❦♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✐♦♥❣
✭✷✵✵✸✮
❇❛❦❡" ❛♥❞ ❙%❡✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮
❇❛❦❡" ❛♥❞ ❲✉"❣❧❡" ✭✷✵✵✻✮
❈❛♥❜❛➩ ❛♥❞ ❑❛♥❞✙" ✭✷✵✵✾✮
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❱♦❧❛%✐❧✐%②
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"❡%✉"♥
❱♦❧❛%✐❧✐%② ♦❢
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"❡%✉"♥2
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H✉% ❝❛❧❧ "❛%✐♦ ❢♦"
❡I✉✐%② ♦♣%✐♦♥2
H✉% ❝❛❧❧ "❛%✐♦
❢♦" ♦✐❧ ♦♣%✐♦♥2
❇❛%❤✐❛ ❛♥❞ ❇"❡❞✐♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮
❙♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ■H❖ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞
✐♥✐%✐❛❧ "❡%✉"♥2
❘❛%✐♦ ♦❢ ♥♦♥
❝♦♠♠❡"❝✐❛❧
%"❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡
%♦ ♦✐❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞
❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮
❇✉♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈❤❡♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮
❑♦❧♦❞③✐❡❥ ❛♥❞ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥
✭✷✵✶✸✮
▼❛"❦❡%
❱♦❧❛%✐❧✐%②
❆♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞
✈♦❧❛%✐❧✐%② ✐♥❞❡①
❆♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞
✈♦❧❛%✐❧✐%② ✐♥❞❡①
❙✐♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❲✐❣❣✐♥2 ■■■
✭✷✵✵✶✮
❲❤❛❧❡② ✭✷✵✵✵✱ ✷✵✵✾✮
❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✿ ❈♦♠♣❛+✐-♦♥ ♦❢ 0+♦①✐❡- ❢♦+ ❙❡♥3✐♠❡♥3 ✐♥ 3❤❡ ❊6✉✐3② ▼❛+❦❡3- ❛♥❞ 3❤❡ ❖✐❧ ▼❛+❦❡3-
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♦ ♣❤②%✐❝❛❧ ❞❡❧✐✈❡-②✱ ❤✐% ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ❡❞ ❤❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ %♣❡❝✉❧❛ ✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❤❡ ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❧❡❝ -✐❝✐ ②
♠❛-❦❡ % -❡%♣❡❝ ✐✈❡❧②✳ ❆ ♠♦-❡ %♣❡❝✐✜❝ ♠❡❛%✉-❡ ✇❛% ❛❧%♦ ✉%❡❞✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② ❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡- ♦❢
♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♣♦%✐ ✐♦♥% ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❈❋❚❈✳ ❚❤✐% ♠❡❛%✉-❡ ✇❛% ✉%❡❞ ❜② ❑♦❧♦❞③✐❡❥
❛♥❞ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ✭❚❤❡ ❯❙ ❈♦♠♠♦❞✐ ② ❋✉ ✉-❡% ❚-❛❞✐♥❣ ❈♦♠♠✐%%✐♦♥ ✭❈❋❚❈✮
❞❡✜♥❡% ❛ ❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ♣♦%✐ ✐♦♥ ❛% ♦♥❡ ❤❡❧❞ ❜② %♦♠❡♦♥❡ ✇❤♦ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡%✱ ♣-♦❝❡%%❡% ♦- %❡❧❧%
❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐ ②✱ ❤✐% ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡% ✉%✐♥❣ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♦ ❤❡❞❣❡ ❛❝ ✉❛❧ ❡①♣♦%✉-❡ ♦ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐ ②
♣-✐❝❡%✳✮ ■♥ ❤✐% ✐♥✈❡% ✐❣❛ ✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ ❤❡%❡ ✇♦ ♠❡ ❤♦❞% ❛♥❞ ✉%❡ ❤❡ -❛ ✐♦ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲
❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❲❚■ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♦ ✇♦-❧❞ ♦✐❧ %✉♣♣❧② ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❯❙ ❉❡♣ ♦❢ ❊♥❡-❣② ❛% ❛ %♣❡❝✉❧❛ ✐♦♥
✐♥❞✐❝❛ ♦- ❢♦- ❲❚■✳ ❆ %✐♠✐❧❛- ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ♦- ❢♦- ❇-❡♥ ✐% ❝♦♥% -✉❝ ❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❝♦--❡%♣♦♥❞✐♥❣
❞❛ ❛ ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❈❋❚❈ ❢♦- ❇-❡♥ ♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♣♦%✐ ✐♦♥% ✇❤❡-❡ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞
✐% ❤❡ ❢♦✉- ❤ ♣-♦①②✳ ❆ ❞✐✣❝✉❧ ② ✇✐ ❤ ❤❡ ❞❛ ❛ ✐% ❤❛ ❇-❡♥ ♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❞❛ ❛ ✐%
✉♥❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❜❡❢♦-❡ ❆♣-✐❧ ✷✵✵✽❀ ♦ ♦✈❡-❝♦♠❡ ❤✐% ❤❡ ❲❚■ ❞❛ ❛ ✐% ✉%❡❞ ✐♥ ✐ % ♣❧❛❝❡ ❢-♦♠
❏❛♥✉❛-② ✷✵✵✷ ♦ ▼❛-❝❤ ✷✵✵✽✱ ❤✐% ✐% ❛ -❡❛%♦♥❛❜❧❡ ❛♣♣-♦①✐♠❛ ✐♦♥ ❛% ❤❡ ♣-✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❇-❡♥
❛♥❞ ❲❚■ ✇❡-❡ ✈❡-② ❝❧♦%❡❧② ❛❧✐❣♥❡❞ ❜❡❢♦-❡ ✷✵✶✶✳
❚❤❡ ❱■❳ ✇❛% ✉%❡❞ ❛% ❛ ♣-♦①② ♦❢ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ❜② ❙✐♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❲✐❣❣✐♥% ■■■ ✭✷✵✵✶✮✳ ❱♦❧❛ ✐❧✲
✐ ② ✐♥❞✐❝❡% ❛-❡ ❝♦♥%✐❞❡-❡❞ ♦ ❜❡ ♠❡❛%✉-❡% ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡% ♦- ❢❡❛- ♦- ❛♥①✐❡ ② ✭❲❤❛❧❡②✱ ✷✵✵✵✱
✷✵✵✾✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❱■❳ ✐% ❤❡ ✇❡✐❣❤ ❡❞ ❛✈❡-❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛ ✐❧✐ ✐❡% ♦❢ ✜-% ❛♥❞ %❡❝♦♥❞
♠♦♥ ❤ ♦♣ ✐♦♥% ♦♥ ❤❡ ❈❤✐❝❛❣♦ ❇♦❛-❞ ♦❢ ❚-❛❞❡✳ ❲❡ ✉%❡ ❤✐% ♠❡❛%✉-❡ ❛% ❛ ♣-♦①② ✇❤❡♥
❛♥❛❧②%✐♥❣ ❲❚■✳ ❚❤❡ ✈♦❧❛ ✐❧✐ ② ♦❢ ❤❡ ❊✉-♦ ❙ ♦①① ✺✵ ✐♥❞❡① ✭❱✷❳✮ ✐% ✉%❡❞ ❢♦- ❇-❡♥ ✳
❚❤❡ ❊✉-♦ ❙ ♦①① ✺✵ ✐♥❞❡① ✐% ❝♦♠♣-✐%❡❞ ♦❢ ✺✵ ♦❢ ❤❡ ❧❛-❣❡% % ♦❝❦% ✐♥ ❤❡ ❊✉-♦③♦♥❡ ❛♥❞
-❡♣-❡%❡♥ % ♠♦-❡ ❤❛♥ ✺✵✪ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❤❡ ❊✉-♦③♦♥❡ ❡Y✉✐ ✐❡% ❜② ❝❛♣✐ ❛❧✐%❛ ✐♦♥✳ ❊Y✉✐ ② ✐♥❞❡①
✈♦❧❛ ✐❧✐ ② ✐% ❤❡ ✜❢ ❤ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛❧ ♣-♦①② ❛♥❞ ✐% ❝❤♦%❡♥ ❛% ❛ ♣-♦①② ❢♦- ♦✈❡-❛❧❧ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ✐♥
❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠②✳
✷✳✷✳ ❇✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❛ *❡♥,✐♠❡♥, ✐♥❞❡① ❜② ♣2✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥, ❛♥❛❧②*✐*
❚❤✐% ✐♥✈❡% ✐❣❛ ✐♦♥ ✉%❡% Z❈❆ ♦ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❧✐♥❡❛- ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡%✳ ❚❤❡
✜-% ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ ✐% ❤❡ ❧✐♥❡❛- ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡% ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝❛♣ ✉-❡% ❤❡
♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ✈❛-✐❛♥❝❡ ❝♦♠♣❛-❡❞ ✇✐ ❤ ♦ ❤❡- ❧✐♥❡❛- ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛ ✐♦♥% %✉❜❥❡❝ ♦ ♥♦-♠❛❧✐%❛ ✐♦♥✳
❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ♦✛❡- ✇♦ ❝♦♠♠❡♥ % -❡❣❛-❞✐♥❣ ❤❡ -♦❜✉% ♥❡%% ♦❢ ❤✐% ♠❡ ❤♦❞✿
✜-% ❤❛ ✐ -❡❞✉❝❡% -❡❧✐❛♥❝❡ ♦♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣-♦①✐❡% ✭❡✈❡♥ ❤♦✉❣❤ ♠❡❛%✉-❡❞ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧❧②
%♦♠❡ ❛-❡ ✈❡-② %✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ ✮❀ ❛♥❞ %❡❝♦♥❞✱ ❤❛ ❛♥ ✐♥❞❡① ❝♦♥% -✉❝ ❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣-♦①✐❡%
✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡❤❛✈❡ ❛❧♠♦% ✐❞❡♥ ✐❝❛❧❧② ♦ ❤❛ ❢♦-♠❡❞ ❜② Z❈❆✳
❆ ✜-% % ❛❣❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✐% ❝♦♥% -✉❝ ❡❞ ✭❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡-✱ ✷✵✵✻✮ ♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡
✇❤❡ ❤❡- ♦ ✉%❡ ❡❛❝❤ ♣-♦①②✬% ❝✉--❡♥ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦- ✐ % ✜-% ✐♠❡✲❧❛❣❣❡❞ ✈❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤✐% ✐% ♦
❛❦❡ ✐♥ ♦ ❝♦♥%✐❞❡-❛ ✐♦♥ ❤❡ ♣♦%%✐❜✐❧✐ ② ❤❛ %♦♠❡ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡% ♠❛② ❜❡ % -♦♥❣❡- ❧❡❛❞✐♥❣
✐♥❞✐❝❛ ♦-% ❤❛♥ ♦ ❤❡-%✳ ❚❤❡ ✜-% % ❛❣❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✐% ❤❡ ✜-% ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❤❡
❝✉--❡♥ ❛♥❞ ✜-% ❧❛❣% ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡%✳ ❋♦- ❡❛❝❤ ♣-♦①② ❤❡ ❝♦--❡❧❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ❝✉--❡♥ ✈❛❧✉❡
✇✐ ❤ ❤❡ ✜-% % ❛❣❡ ✐♥❞❡① ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ❝♦--❡❧❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①②✬% ✜-% ❧❛❣ ✇✐ ❤ ❤❡ ✜-% % ❛❣❡
✐♥❞❡① ❛-❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❛-❣❡- ✈❛❧✉❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡% ✇❤❡ ❤❡- ❤❡ ❝✉--❡♥ ♦- ✜-% ❧❛❣ ✐% ❝❤♦%❡♥
♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ ❤❡ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❡%✳ ❚❤❡ %❡❧❡❝ ❡❞ ♣-♦①✐❡% ❛-❡ ❤❡♥ ✉%❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ %❡❝♦♥❞ Z❈❆
% ❛❣❡✱ ❤❡ ✜-% ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ ♦❢ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐% ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ♦ ❜❡ ❤❡ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦-
❤❡ ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ✐♥ Y✉❡% ✐♦♥✳
✼
ACC
EPTE
D M
ANU
SCR
IPT
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
❚❤❡ #❡$✉❧'$ ♦❢ '❤❡ *❈❆ ❜❛$❡❞ ♦✐❧ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ❝♦♥$'#✉❝'✐♦♥ ♣#♦❝❡$$❡$ ❛#❡ $✉♠♠❛#✐$❡❞
✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✳ ❚❤✉$ ❢♦# ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇#❡♥' '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛#❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛'❡❞ ❛$ ❢♦❧❧♦✇$✱
WTI Sentimentt = 0.36Trading V olumet−1− 0.44WTI V olatilityt− 0.53PutCall Ratiot−1
+0.59Spec WTIt − 0.22V IXt−1 ✭✷✳✶✮
BrentSentimentt = 0.19TradingV olumet−1−0.63BrentV olatilityt+0.06PutCallRatiot−1
0.46Spec Brentt − 0.60V olatility of Stoxxt−1 ✭✷✳✷✮
✇❤❡#❡ WTI ♦# Brent V olatility ✐$ '❤❡ ✸✵✲❞❛② ❤✐$'♦#✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛'✐❧✐'② ♦❢ ❲❚■ ♦# ❇#❡♥' ❛♥❞
Spec WTI ♦# Spec Brent ✐$ '❤❡ $♣❡❝✉❧❛'✐♦♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛'♦# ❢♦# ❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧✳ ❚❤❡ *❈❆ ♣#♦❝❡$$
❝❛❧❝✉❧❛'❡$ '❤❡ #❛'✐♦ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥'$ ✇❤✐❝❤ ♠❛①✐♠✐$❡$ ✈❛#✐❛♥❝❡ $✉❜❥❡❝' '♦ '❤❡ $✉♠ ♦❢
'❤❡ $C✉❛#❡❞ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣$ ❜❡✐♥❣ ♦♥❡✳
❲❛♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ $❤♦✇❡❞ '❤❛' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ❢#♦♠ $♣❡❝✉❧❛'♦#$ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❞❣❡#$ ❞✐❞ ❝♦♥'❛✐♥ ✉$❡✲
❢✉❧ ✐♥❢♦#♠❛'✐♦♥ #❡❣❛#❞✐♥❣ '❤❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥'$ ♦❢ ❛❣#✐❝✉❧'✉#❛❧ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐'② ♣#✐❝❡$ ❜✉' '❤❛'
$❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ❢#♦♠ $♠❛❧❧ '#❛❞❡#$ ✇❛$ ♥♦' ✉$❡❢✉❧✳ ■' ✐$ ❝♦♥❥❡❝'✉#❡❞ ❤❡#❡ '❤❛' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥'
✐♥ '❤❡ ♣#♦❢❡$$✐♦♥❛❧❧②✲'#❛❞❡❞ ♦✐❧ ♠❛#❦❡'$ ✐$ ✉$❡❢✉❧ ❛$ '❤❡ ✈❛$' ♠❛❥♦#✐'② ♦❢ '❤❡ '#❛❞❡#$ ✐♥
'❤❡ ❡♥❡#❣② ♠❛#❦❡'$ ❛#❡ ❤✐❣❤❧② ✐♥❢♦#♠❡❞ ♣#♦❢❡$$✐♦♥❛❧$✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❇❛❦❡# ❛♥❞ ❲✉#❣❧❡# ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱
▲❡♠♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ *♦#'♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛ ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❛♥❞ ❈❤✉♥❣✱ ❍✉♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❨❡❤ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ❡①❛♠✐♥❡❞ '❤❡ $'♦❝❦
♠❛#❦❡'$ '❤❡② ✉$❡❞ ❛♥ ♦#'❤♦❣♦♥❛❧✐$❛'✐♦♥ ♣#♦❝❡❞✉#❡ '♦ #❡♠♦✈❡ ❢#♦♠ '❤❡ ❡C✉✐'② $❡♥'✐♠❡♥'
♣#♦①✐❡$ ❛♥②'❤✐♥❣ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❛''#✐❜✉'❡❞ '♦ '❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝②❝❧❡✳ ❚❤✐$ ♣#♦❝❡❞✉#❡ ❡❢✲
❢❡❝'✐✈❡❧② ♣#♦❞✉❝❡❞ ❛♥ ✐♥❞❡① ✇❤✐❝❤ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡❞ ❤❡❛✈✐❧② ♦♥ '❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝②❝❧❡
✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$✳ ■♥ ♦#❞❡# '♦ ❝❛♣'✉#❡ '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛#❦❡'$✱ '❤✐$ ♦#'❤♦❣♦♥❛❧✐$❛'✐♦♥
$'❡♣ ✐$ ♥♦' ❝❛##✐❡❞ ♦✉'✳ ❚❤✐$ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ❦❡❡♣$ '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛♥❞ '❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧
✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥' ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ♦'❤❡#✳ ❚❤✐$ ❛♣♣#♦❛❝❤ ✐$ ❛#❣✉❡❞ '♦ ❜❡ #❡❛$♦♥❛❜❧❡ ❞✉❡ '♦
'❤❡#❡ ❜❡✐♥❣ ✐♥$✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥' ♦# ❧♦✇ ❝♦##❡❧❛'✐♦♥ ❜❡'✇❡❡♥ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛♥❞ '❤❡
❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$ ✭❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✮✳ ❚❤✐$ ✜♥❞✐♥❣ ❛❧$♦ #❡❢✉'❡$ ❛ ❝#✐'✐❝✐$♠ '❤❛' '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥'
✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛#❡ ❡✛❡❝'✐✈❡ ❜❡❝❛✉$❡ '❤❡② ❝❛♣'✉#❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✐♥❢♦#♠❛'✐♦♥✳
✷✳✸✳ ❚❤❡ &❡♥(✐♠❡♥( ✐♥❞✐❝❡& ❢♦/ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇/❡♥(
❋✐❣✉#❡ ✷✳✶ ♣❧♦'$ '❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇#❡♥' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛$ ✇❡❧❧ ❛$ '❤❡ ❧♦❣ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❲❚■
❛♥❞ ❇#❡♥' ♣#✐❝❡ $❡#✐❡$✳ ■' ✐$ $❡❡♥ '❤❛' '❤❡ ❇#❡♥' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞❡① ✐$ C✉✐'❡ $✐♠✐❧❛# '♦ '❤❛'
♦❢ ❲❚■ ✇✐'❤ ❜♦'❤ $❤♦✇✐♥❣ ❛ ❣❡♥❡#❛❧ ✉♣✇❛#❞ '#❡♥❞ ♦✈❡# '❤❡ ♣❡#✐♦❞✳ ■♥ ❛❞❞✐'✐♦♥ ❜♦'❤
❤❛✈❡ ❛ $❡✈❡#❡ ❞✐♣ ❞✉#✐♥❣ '❤❡ ♣❡#✐♦❞ ♦❢ #❛♣✐❞ ♦✐❧ ♣#✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✽✳
❚❛❜❧❡ ✸ $❤♦✇$ '❤❛' '❤❡#❡ ✐$ ❧♦✇ ♦# ✐♥$✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥' ❝♦##❡❧❛'✐♦♥ ❜❡'✇❡❡♥ '❤❡ ✜#$' ❞✐❢✲
❢❡#❡♥❝❡$ ♦❢ '❤❡ '✇♦ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛♥❞ '❤❡ ✜#$' ❞✐✛❡#❡♥❝❡$ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧
✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$ '❤❛' ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥$✐❞❡# ✐♥ '❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♣#✐❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧$✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞
❧❛'❡# ✐♥ ❊C✳✸✳✶ ❛♥❞ ❊C✳✸✳✷✳ ❚❤✐$ ❞❡♠♦♥$'#❛'❡$ '❤❛' '❤❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛#❡ ♥♦' $✐♠♣❧② ❝❛♣'✉#✐♥❣
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✐♥❢♦$♠❛'✐♦♥ ❢$♦♠ '❤❡*❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡* ❜✉' ❛$❡ ❛❧*♦ ❜$✐♥❣✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦$♠❛'✐♦♥
'♦ '❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❆* '❤✐* ✐♥❢♦$♠❛'✐♦♥ ✐* ❡①'$❛❝'❡❞ ❢$♦♠ ♣$♦①✐❡* ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ♦♥ ❝❤❛♥♥❡❧* ♦❢
*❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥ ❡7✉✐'② ♠❛$❦❡'*✱ ✐' ✐* $❡❛*♦♥❛❜❧② ❛$❣✉❡❞ '❤❛' '❤❡ ♦✐❧ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡* ❛$❡
♠❡❛*✉$✐♥❣ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡' *❡♥'✐♠❡♥'✳
❲❚■ ❇$❡♥'
❈✉$$❡♥' ✭'✮
♦$ ▲❛❣ ✭'✲✶✮
▲♦❛❞✐♥❣
❈✉$$❡♥' ✭'✮
♦$ ▲❛❣ ✭'✲✶✮
▲♦❛❞✐♥❣
❚$❛❞✐♥❣ ❱♦❧✉♠❡ ' ✲ ✶ ✵✳✸✻ ' ✲ ✶ ✵✳✶✾
✸✵✲❉❛② ❱♦❧❛'✐❧✐'② ' ✲✵✳✹✹ ' ✲✵✳✻✸
;✉' ❈❛❧❧ ❘❛'✐♦ ' ✲ ✶ ✲✵✳✺✸ ' ✲ ✶ ✵✳✵✻
❙♣❡❝✉❧❛'✐♦♥
■♥❞✐❝❛'♦$
' ✵✳✺✾ ' ✵✳✹✻
❱■❳ ✴ ❱✷❳ ' ✲ ✶ ✲✵✳✷✷ ' ✲ ✶ ✲✵✳✻✵
❱❛$✐❛♥❝❡
❊①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞
✸✸✪ ✷✼✪
❚❤❡ #❛❜❧❡ '❤♦✇' #❤❡ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣' ❢/♦♠ #❤❡ ♣/✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ❛♥❛❧②'✐' ♦❢ #❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇/❡♥# '❡♥#✐♠❡♥#
♣/♦①✐❡'✳ ❚❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❝✉//❡♥# ✭#✮ ♦/ ✜/'# ❧❛❣ ✭#✲✶✮ ✐' ♠❛❞❡ ✉'✐♥❣ #❤❡ ♠❡#❤♦❞ ♦❢ ❇❛❦❡/ ❛♥❞ ❲✉/❣❧❡/
✭✷✵✵✻✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❧✐♥❡❛/ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛#✐♦♥ ♦❢ #❤❡'❡ ♣/♦①✐❡' ✇✐#❤ #❤❡✐/ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣' ✐' #❤❡ ✜/'# ♣/✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥#
❢♦/ ❡❛❝❤ '❡# ♦❢ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ♣/♦①✐❡'✳ ❚❤✐' ✜/'# ♣/✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ✐' #❤❡ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦/ ❡❛❝❤ ❝/✉❞❡
♦✐❧✳ ❚❤❡ ♣❡/❝❡♥#❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✈❛/✐❛♥❝❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② #❤✐' ✜/'# ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ✐' ❧✐'#❡❞✳ ❱✷❳ ✐' #❤❡ ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#② ✐♥❞❡①
❜❛'❡❞ ♦♥ #❤❡ ❊✉/♦ ❙#♦①① ✺✵✳
❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✿ J❈❆ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣' ❢♦/ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇/❡♥# ❖✐❧ ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡'✳
✸✳ ❚❡$%✐♥❣ ❢*❛♠❡✇♦*❦
❚♦ '❡*' ✇❤❡'❤❡$ ❝❤❛♥❣❡* ✐♥ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡* ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♣$✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥'* ✐♥
♣$♦♠♣'✲♠♦♥'❤ ❢✉'✉$❡* ❝♦♥'$❛❝'* ❢♦$ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥'✱ ❛ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦$ '❤❡*❡
❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧* ✐* ♣$♦♣♦*❡❞ ❛♥❞ '❡*'❡❞ ✉*✐♥❣ ❛ ♠✉❧'✐✈❛$✐❛'❡ $❡❣$❡**✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦
♠♦❞❡❧ ✐* *♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❝❤♦*❡♥ '♦ ❝❛♣'✉$❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ $❛'❤❡$ '❤❛♥ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡*
♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡*✳ ❚❤❡ ♦✐❧ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡* ❛$❡ ❛❞❞❡❞ '♦ '❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦$ ❡❛❝❤
❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ '❤❡ ❡①'❡♥❞❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧* ❛$❡ '❡*'❡❞ ❛❣❛✐♥✳ ❈❤❛♥❣❡* ✐♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣❡$❢♦$♠❛♥❝❡
❛$❡ ♠❡❛*✉$❡❞ ✉*✐♥❣ '❤❡ ✐♥❢♦$♠❛❧ ❛❞❥✉*'❡❞ ❘
2♠❡❛*✉$❡ ❛♥❞ ✈❛$✐❛♥❝❡ $❛'✐♦ '❡*'*✱ ❛❧♦♥❣
✇✐'❤ ❢♦$♠❛❧ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ $❛'✐♦ '❡*'*✳ ❆ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦$ ❜♦'❤ ♦✐❧* ✐* ✉*❡❞ *♦ '❤❛' ❛ ❢❛✐$
❝♦♠♣❛$✐*♦♥ ♠❛② ❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❡✛❡❝' ♦❢ '❤❡ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞❡① ♦♥ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥' ❝$✉❞❡
♦✐❧*✳
✸✳✶✳ ❇❡♥❝❤♠❛*❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ /♣❡❝✐✜❝❛3✐♦♥
❇❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦ ♠♦❞❡❧* ❢♦$ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥' ❛$❡ ♣$♦♣♦*❡❞ ❛' ♠♦♥'❤❧② ❢$❡7✉❡♥❝② ✉*✐♥❣ '❤❡
❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡*✿
✶✳ ❊7✉✐'② ✐♥❞✐❝❡*✿ ❙✫T ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉$♦ ❙'♦①①✱ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ❛♥❞ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
∆❲❚■ ❙❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ■♥❞❡① ∆❇,❡♥& ❙❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ■♥❞❡①
△SP500 ✵✳✸✼ ✵✳✶✵
∆Euro Stoxx ✵✳✸✻ ✲✵✳✵✺
∆Nikkei ✵✳✸✶ ✵✳✶✵
∆Hang Seng ✵✳✷✼ ✵✳✷✶
∆USDEUR ✲✵✳✷✵ ✲✵✳✷✹
∆USDJPY ✵✳✶✹ ✵✳✵✶
∆USDHKD ✲✵✳✵✺ ✵✳✵✸
∆BDI ✲✵✳✵✶ ✵✳✶✹
∆Moody ✲✵✳✶✵ ✲✵✳✵✸
∆US Oil Inventory ✵✳✵✺ ✵✳✵✵
∆World Oil Supply ✲✵✳✵✻ ✲✵✳✵✾
∆OPEC Surplus ✵✳✶✹ ✵✳✶✸
∆OPEC Proportion ✲✵✳✶✽ ✵✳✵✾
❚❤❡ &❛❜❧❡ 1❤♦✇1 &❤❡ ❝♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥1 ❜❡&✇❡❡♥ &❤❡ ✜,1& ❞✐✛❡,❡♥❝❡1 ♦❢ &❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥&❛❧ ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡1✱ ❛♥❞ &❤❡
✜,1& ❞✐✛❡,❡♥❝❡1 ♦❢ &❤❡ 1❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ✐♥❞✐❝❡1 ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥& ❝,✉❞❡ ♦✐❧1✳ ❚❤❡1❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥&❛❧ ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡1
❛,❡ ✉1❡❞ ✐♥ &❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♠♦❞❡❧1 ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡✳ ❚❤❡ ,❡1✉❧&1 ❛,❡ ❣❡♥❡,❛❧❧② ✈❡,② ❧♦✇ ❝♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥ ✇✐&❤ ✶✽ ♦❢
&❤❡ ✷✻ ❝♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥1 ❜❡❧♦✇ &❤❡ ✺✪ 1✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✵✳✶✻✹✷✳ ❚❤❡ 1❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦, ❲❚■ ✐1 ✇❡❛❦❧②
❝♦,,❡❧❛&❡❞ ✇✐&❤ &❤❡ 1&♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡1 ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐1 ❡①♣❡❝&❡❞ ❛1 &❤❡ ❯❙ ✐1 ❛ ❧❛,❣❡, ♦✐❧ ♣,♦❞✉❝❡, &❤❛♥ ❊✉,♦♣❡✳
❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✿ ❈♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥ ❚❛❜❧❡✿ ❙❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ■♥❞✐❝❡1 ❛♥❞ ❋✉♥❞❛♠❡♥&❛❧ ❇❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ❱❛,✐❛❜❧❡1
✷✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙✩ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ 7❛8❡ ❢♦7 8❤❡ ❊✉7♦✱ 8❤❡ ❏❛♣❛♥❡@❡ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞ 8❤❡ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛7
✸✳ ❇❛❧8✐❝ ❉7② ■♥❞❡①
✹✳ ❈♦7♣♦7❛8❡ ❜♦♥❞ 7❛8❡@✱ ✇❤❡7❡ ✇❡ @♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❝♦♥@✐❞❡7 ▼♦♦❞②✬@ ❆❛❛ ❝♦7♣♦7❛8❡ ❜♦♥❞
7❛8❡
✺✳ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥8♦7② ❛♥❞ ❲♦7❧❞ ♦✐❧ @✉♣♣❧②
✻✳ ❖U❊❈✬@ ♣7♦♣♦78✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦7❧❞ ♣7♦❞✉❝8✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❖U❊❈✬@ @♣❛7❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐8②✳
❲❡ ❝❤♦♦@❡ ❛ @❡❧❡❝8✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡V✉✐8② ✐♥❞✐❝❡@✱ ❢7♦♠ 8❤❡ ❯❙ ✭✇♦7❧❞✬@ ❧❛7❣❡@8 ♦✐❧ ❝♦♥@✉♠❡7✮✱ 8❤❡
❊✉7♦③♦♥❡ ✭✷♥❞✮✱ ❈❤✐♥❛ ✭✸7❞✮ ❛♥❞ ❏❛♣❛♥ ✭✹8❤✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ 8♦❣❡8❤❡7 ❛❝❝♦✉♥8❡❞ ❢♦7 ✺✵✪ ♦❢ ✇♦7❧❞
♦✐❧ ❝♦♥@✉♠♣8✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✷✵✶✷ ✭❯❙ ❊♥❡7❣② ■♥❢♦7♠❛8✐♦♥ ❆❞♠✐♥✐@87❛8✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤❡@❡ 7❡❣✐♦♥@ ❛7❡
7❡♣7❡@❡♥8❡❞ ✐♥ ♦✉7 8❡@8✐♥❣ ❜② ❙✫U ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉7♦❙8♦①① ✺✵✱ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ❛♥❞ 8❤❡ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ @8♦❝❦
✐♥❞✐❝❡@✳ ❚❤❡7❡ ✐@ ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥8 ❧✐8❡7❛8✉7❡ ❛❞❞7❡@@✐♥❣ 8❤❡ ✐♥8❡7❛❝8✐♦♥@ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡@ ❛♥❞ @8♦❝❦
♣7✐❝❡@✳ ❏♦♥❡@ ❛♥❞ ❑❛✉❧ ✭✶✾✾✻✮ ❤❛✈❡ 7❡♣♦78❡❞ ♥❡❣❛8✐✈❡ ❝♦✲♠♦✈❡♠❡♥8@ ♦❢ @8♦❝❦ ♣7✐❝❡@ ✐♥
7❡@♣♦♥@❡ 8♦ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡ @❤♦❝❦@ ❜❡8✇❡❡♥ ✶✾✹✼ ❛♥❞ ✶✾✾✶✱ ❛❧8❤♦✉❣❤ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ✜♥❞
8❤❛8 ❢7♦♠ ✷✵✵✹ 8♦ ✷✵✵✾ 8❤❡ ❙✫U ✺✵✵ ❞✐❞ ♥♦8 ♣7♦✈✐❞❡ ❛ @✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥8 ❡①♣❧❛♥❛8✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✐❧
♣7✐❝❡@✳ ❩❤❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ▲✐ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ❤❛✈❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ❝❧♦@❡ ❝♦77❡❧❛8✐♦♥@ ❜❡8✇❡❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡@ ❛♥❞ ❡V✉✐8②
✐♥❞✐❝❡@✱ ✇✐8❤ 8❤❡ @✐❣♥@ ♦❢ 8❤❡ ❝♦77❡❧❛8✐♦♥ ❛❧✇❛②@ ♣♦@✐8✐✈❡✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐@ ❛❧@♦ 8❤❡ ❝❛@❡ ❤❡7❡✳
❚❤❡7❡ ❤❛@ ❜❡❡♥ @♦♠❡ ❞❡❜❛8❡ ❝♦♥❝❡7♥✐♥❣ 8❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❆@✐❛♥ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡@ ✭@❡❡
▲✐ ❛♥❞ ▲✐♥ ✷✵✶✶✱ ❇❡✐7♥❡ ❡8 ❛❧✳ ✷✵✶✸ ❛♥❞ ❆❧V✉✐@8 ❛♥❞ ●❡7✈❛✐@ ✷✵✶✸✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ @✉♣♣♦78@ 8❤❡
✐♥❝❧✉@✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❏❛♣❛♥❡@❡ @8♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡@✳ ■8 ✐@ ❝❧❡❛7 8❤❛8 8❤❡7❡ ✐@ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①
7❡❧❛8✐♦♥@❤✐♣ ❜❡8✇❡❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡V✉✐8② ♣7✐❝❡@ ❛♥❞ ❤❡♥❝❡ @8♦❝❦ ♠❛7❦❡8@ ♠✉@8 ❜❡ ♣❛78
✶✵
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EPTE
D M
ANU
SCR
IPT
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Ln_WTI
Ln_Brent
BrentNRGi
WTINRGi
❋✐❣✉$❡ ✷✳✶✿ ▲♦❣ ♦❢ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥4 ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ 4❤❡✐$ ❙❡♥4✐♠❡♥4 ■♥❞✐❝❡7
♦❢ "❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥"❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛❜❧❡1 S&P 500t, Stoxx 50t, NKYt, Hang Sengt❛.❡ "❤❡ ❙✫4 ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉.♦ ❙"♦①① ✺✵✱ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ❛♥❞ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ 1"♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡1✳
❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈③✉❞❛❥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ❤❛✈❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ "❤❛" ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❞♦❧❧❛. ❞❡♣.❡❝✐❛"✐♦♥ ❝❛✉1❡1
♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡ ✐♥❝.❡❛1❡✳ ❇.❛❤♠❛1.❡♥❡✱ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❙✐11♦❦♦ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ✜♥❞ "❤❛" ❯❙ ❡①✲
❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛"❡1 ●.❛♥❣❡. ❝❛✉1❡ ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡1 ✐♥ "❤❡ 1❤♦." .✉♥✱ ❛❧"❤♦✉❣❤ ❘❡❜♦.❡❞♦ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✜♥❞1
"❤❛" ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛"❡ ✐♥"❡.❛❝"✐♦♥ ✐1 ✇❡❛❦✳ ❚❤❡1❡ ✜♥❞✐♥❣1 ❛♥❞ "❤❡ 1❡❧❡❝✲
"✐♦♥ ♦❢ 1"♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡1 ❧❡❛❞ "♦ "❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ "❤❡ ❯❙ ❉♦❧❧❛. ❛❣❛✐♥1" "❤❡ ❊✉.♦✱ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞
❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛. ❛1 "❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛"❡1 ❢♦. "❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛.❦ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛❜❧❡1
USDEURt, USDJPYt ❛♥❞ USDHKDt ❛.❡ "❤❡ ✈❛❧✉❡1 ♦❢ ✩✶❯❙ ❡①♣.❡11❡❞ ✐♥ ❊✉.♦✱
❨❡♥ ♦. ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❉♦❧❧❛.1✳
❚❤❡ ❇❛❧"✐❝ ❉.② ■♥❞❡① ✇❤✐❝❤ ".❛❝❦1 "❤❡ ❝♦1" ♦❢ 1❤✐♣♣✐♥❣ ❣♦♦❞1 ❛❝.♦11 "❤❡ ♦❝❡❛♥1 ✐1
✉1❡❞ ❛1 ❛♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛"♦. ♦❢ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✐♥❞✉1".✐❛❧ ♣.♦❞✉❝"✐♦♥ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ▼✐"❝❤❡❧❧ ❡" ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✮✱
❋.❛❧❡ ❡" ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✮✱ ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮✱ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✳ ❆ ❝.✐"✐❝✐1♠
♦❢ ✉1✐♥❣ "❤❡ ❇❉■ ✐1 "❤❛" ✐" ✐1 ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② ❢✉❡❧ ❝♦1"1✱ ❛♥❞ 1♦ ✐1 ❛♥ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉1 ✈❛.✐❛❜❧❡✳
❚❤✐1 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ ✐1 ❛❞❞.❡11❡❞ ❜② ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ✇❤♦ 1"❛"❡1 "❤❛" "❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛"✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❇❉■ .❛"❡1
✐1 ♠✉❝❤ ❧❛.❣❡. "❤❛♥ "❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛"✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❜✉♥❦❡. ❢✉❡❧ ❝♦1"1✱ ❛♥❞ 1♦ "❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ "❤❡
❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐"② ✐1 ♥♦" ✐♠♣♦."❛♥"✳ BDIt ✐1 "❤❡ ❇❛❧"✐❝ ❉.② ✐♥❞❡① ♦❢ 1❤✐♣♣✐♥❣ ❝♦1"1✳
▼♦♦❞②✬1 ❆❛❛ ❝♦.♣♦.❛"❡ ❜♦♥❞ .❛"❡ ✐1 ✉1❡❞ ❜❡❝❛✉1❡ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ 1✉❣❣❡1"1 "❤❛"
1✐♥❝❡ ❡①".❛❝"✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ✐1 ❛ ❝❛♣✐"❛❧✲✐♥"❡♥1✐✈❡ ❜✉1✐♥❡11✱ "❤❡ ❝♦1" ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐"❛❧ 1❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡
✶✶
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
▼❡❛♥ ❙%❞ ❉❡✈ ❙❦❡✇ ❊① ❑✉/%
❲❚■ ✵✳✵✶✶ ✵✳✵✾✶ ✲✵✳✼✾✼ ✷✳✵✸✵
❇/❡♥% ✵✳✵✶✷ ✵✳✵✽✻ ✲✵✳✾✸✾ ✸✳✶✹✽
❙✫@ ✺✵✵ ✵✳✵✵✸ ✵✳✵✹✺ ✲✵✳✾✹✶ ✶✳✾✹✼
❙%♦①① ✺✵ ✲✵✳✵✵✶ ✵✳✵✺✼ ✲✵✳✼✻✹ ✶✳✸✵✶
◆✐❦❦❡✐ ✵✳✵✵✸ ✵✳✵✺✽ ✲✵✳✾✶✵ ✷✳✺✶✹
❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ✵✳✵✵✺ ✵✳✵✻✷ ✲✵✳✼✽✶ ✷✳✵✻✻
❯❙❉ ❊✉/♦ ✲✵✳✵✵✸ ✵✳✵✸✶ ✵✳✹✸✼ ✶✳✸✵✽
❯❙❉ ❨❡♥ ✲✵✳✵✵✷ ✵✳✵✷✼ ✵✳✸✸✽ ✵✳✸✻✾
❯❙❉ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❉♦❧❧❛/ ✵✳✵✵✵ ✵✳✵✵✶ ✲✵✳✾✵✹ ✺✳✻✶✹
❇❉■ ✵✳✵✵✻ ✵✳✷✹✾ ✲✶✳✹✺✸ ✻✳✻✷✹
❇♦♥❞ ❘❛%❡ ✲✵✳✵✵✷ ✵✳✵✸✼ ✲✵✳✼✷✻ ✹✳✾✵✾
❯❙ ❖✐❧ ■♥✈❡♥%♦/② ✵✳✵✵✶ ✵✳✵✸✵ ✲✵✳✷✷✵ ✲✵✳✶✷✷
❲♦/❧❞ ❖✐❧ ❙✉♣♣❧② ✵✳✵✵✶ ✵✳✵✵✼ ✲✵✳✵✽✹ ✶✳✷✺✽
❖@❊❈ ❙♣❛/❡ ❈❛♣❛❝✐%② ✲✵✳✵✵✽ ✵✳✶✼✵ ✲✶✳✻✻✽ ✶✷✳✸✽✸
❖@❊❈ @/♦♣♦/%✐♦♥ ✵✳✵✵✵ ✵✳✵✶✸ ✲✵✳✸✸✼ ✷✳✻✹✵
❚❤❡ #❛❜❧❡ '❤♦✇' ❞❡'❝,✐♣#✐✈❡ '#❛#✐'#✐❝' ❢♦, ❧♦❣ ,❡#✉,♥' ❞❛#❛ ✉'❡❞ ✐♥ #❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♠♦❞❡❧'✳ ❚❤❡ ❞❛#❛ ✐'
❢,♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛,② ✷✵✵✷ #♦ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡, ✷✵✶✸ ✭◆ ❂ ✶✹✹ ♠♦♥#❤'✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♣,✐❝❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♣,♦♠♣# ♠♦♥#❤ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞
❇,❡♥# ❝,✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉#✉,❡' ❝♦♥#,❛❝#' ❛,❡ ✐♥ ❯❙✩ ♣❡, ❜❛,,❡❧✳ ❈♦,♣♦,❛#❡ ❇♦♥❞ ,❛#❡ ✐' ▼♦♦❞②✬' ❆❛❛ ,❛#❡✳
✬❙#❞ ❉❡✈✬ ✐' '#❛♥❞❛,❞ ❞❡✈✐❛#✐♦♥✱ ✬❙❦❡✇✬ ✐' '❦❡✇♥❡'' ❛♥❞ ✬❊① ❑✉,#✬ ✐' ❡①❝❡'' ❦✉,#♦'✐'✳
❚❛❜❧❡ ✹✿ ❉❡'❝,✐♣#✐✈❡ ❙#❛#✐'#✐❝'
❡✢❡❝$❡❞ ✐♥ $❤❡ ♣ ✐❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✐❧✱ ❛♥❞ $❤❛$ /✐♥❝❡ ♦✐❧ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡/ ❛ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❛$❡❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥
✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✉/❡/ $❤❡ ❆❛❛ ❛$❡✳ Corp Bondt ✐/ ▼♦♦❞②✬/ ❆❛❛ ❝♦ ♣♦ ❛$❡ ❜♦♥❞ ❛$❡✳
❋♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ $❤❡ ❜❛/✐❝ ❧❛✇ ♦❢ /✉♣♣❧② ❛♥❞ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✱ $❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥$♦ ② ❛♥❞ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♦✐❧
/✉♣♣❧② ❢ ♦♠ $❤❡ ❯❙ ❉❡♣$ ♦❢ ❊♥❡ ❣② ✭❉❖❊✮ ❛ ❡ ❛❧/♦ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞✳ US Oil Inventoryt ✐/ $❤❡
❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥$♦ ②✱ World Oil Supplyt ✐/ $❤❡ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♦✐❧ /✉♣♣❧②✳
❚❤❡ ♣ ♦♣♦ $✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♦✐❧ $❤❛$ ✐/ ♣ ♦❞✉❝❡❞ ❜② ❖H❊❈ ❤❛/ ❜❡❡♥ ❢♦✉♥❞ $♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦✐❧
♣ ✐❝❡/ ❜② ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ▲✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐/ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✳ ❚❤✐/ ✇♦✉❧❞
♦❝❝✉ ❞✉❡ $♦ ♠❛ ❦❡$ ♣♦✇❡ ✳ ❆❧/♦ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞ ✐/ $❤❡ ❞✐✛❡ ❡♥❝❡ ❜❡$✇❡❡♥ ❖H❊❈✬/ ❡/$✐♠❛$❡❞
❝❛♣❛❝✐$② ❛♥❞ $❤❡ ♣ ♦❞✉❝$✐♦♥ ❛/ $❤✐/ ❡♣ ❡/❡♥$/ $❤❡ ❞❡❝✐/✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❖H❊❈ ♣ ♦❞✉❝❡ / $♦
❡/$ ✐❝$ /✉♣♣❧②✳ OPECSpareCapacityt ❛♥❞ OPECPropt ❛ ❡ $❤❡ ❖H❊❈ /♣❛ ❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐$②
❛♥❞ ❖H❊❈ ♣ ♦♣♦ $✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♣ ♦❞✉❝$✐♦♥✳
❇❛/❡❞ ♦♥ $❤❡ ❛❜♦✈❡ ❛ ❣✉♠❡♥$/✱ $❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛ ❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇ ❡♥$ ❝ ✉❞❡
♦✐❧ ❛ ❡ /❡$ ♦✉$ ✐♥ ❊Q✳ ✸✳✶✳ ❇❡❢♦ ❡ ✉♥♥✐♥❣ $❤❡ ❡❣ ❡//✐♦♥/✱ ❛❧❧ $❤❡ ❞❛$❛ ❛ ❡ ❧♦❣ $ ❛♥/✲
❢♦ ♠❡❞✱ ✜ /$✲❞✐✛❡ ❡♥❝❡❞✱ /$❛♥❞❛ ❞✐/❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❤❡❝❦❡❞ ❢♦ /$❛$✐♦♥❛ ✐$② ✉/✐♥❣ ❆✉❣♠❡♥$❡❞
❉✐❝❦❡② ❋✉❧❧❡ ✭❆❉❋✮ $❡/$/ ✇❤✐❝❤ /❤♦✇ $❤❡ ❧♦❣ ❡$✉ ♥/ ♦❢ $❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥$❛❧ ✈❛ ✐❛❜❧❡/ ❛♥❞
/❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞✐❝❡/ $♦ ❜❡ /$❛$✐♦♥❛ ②✳ ❉❡/❝ ✐♣$✐✈❡ /$❛$✐/$✐❝/ ❛ ❡ ❣✐✈❡♥ ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✹✳ ❚❤❡
❜❡♥❝❤♠❛ ❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐/ ❣✐✈❡♥ ✐♥ ❊Q✳ ✸✳✶✿
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
Oilt = α + β1S&P 500t + β2Stoxx 50t + β3NKYt + β4Hang Sengt,
+β5USDEURt + β6USDJPYt + β7USDHKDt ++β8BDIt
+β9Corp Bondt + β10US Oil Inventoryt + β11World Oil Supplyt
+β12OPEC Spare Capacityt + β13OPEC Propt + εt ✭✸✳✶✮
✇❤❡(❡ ❛❧❧ ✈❛(✐❛❜❧❡. ❛(❡ ❡①♣(❡..❡❞ ✐♥ ❧♦❣ (❡5✉(♥. ❛♥❞ Oilt ✐. 5❤❡ ❲❚■ ♦( ❇(❡♥5 ♣(♦♠♣5
♠♦♥5❤ ❝(✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣(✐❝❡✳
❲✐5❤ 5❤❡ ❛❞❞✐5✐♦♥ ♦❢ 5❤❡ .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ✐♥❞❡① 5❤✐. ♠♦❞❡❧ ❜❡❝♦♠❡.✿
Oilt = α + β1S&P 500t + β2Stoxx 50t + β3NKYt + β4Hang Sengt,
+β5USDEURt + β6USDJPYt + β7USDHKDt ++β8BDIt
+β9Corp Bondt + β10US Oil Inventoryt + β11World Oil Supplyt
+β12OPEC SpareCapacityt + β13OPEC Propt + β14Oil Sentimentt + εt ✭✸✳✷✮
✇❤❡(❡ Oil Sentimentt ✐. 5❤❡ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ 5❤❡ ♦✐❧ .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦( ❲❚■ ♦( ❇(❡♥5 ❛5
5✐♠❡ t ♠❡❛.✉(❡❞ ✐♥ ♠♦♥5❤.✳ ❆. ✐. ✉.✉❛❧ ♣(❛❝5✐❝❡✱ .5❛♥❞❛(❞✐.❡❞ ✈❛(✐❛❜❧❡. ❛(❡ ✉.❡❞ .♦
5❤❛5 ❝♦♠♣❛(✐.♦♥. ❜❡5✇❡❡♥ 5❤❡ ✈❛(✐❛❜❧❡. ♠❛② ❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛♥❞ .♦ 5❤❛5 ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛5✐♦♥. ♠❛② ♥♦5
❜❡ ❧✐❛❜❧❡ 5♦ ✢♦❛5✐♥❣ ♣♦✐♥5 ❡((♦(. ✭❆❜♦✉(❛ ❛♥❞ ❈❤❡✈❛❧❧✐❡(✱ ✷✵✶✸✮✱ 5❤✉. 5❤❡ α 5❡(♠. ❛(❡
③❡(♦✳
✹✳ ❘❡$✉❧'$
❚❤❡(❡ ✐. ❛ ❝❧❡❛( ✐♠♣(♦✈❡♠❡♥5 5♦ 5❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛(❦ ♠♦❞❡❧. ❢♦( ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇(❡♥5 ♦♥ 5❤❡
✐♥❝❧✉.✐♦♥ ♦❢ 5❤❡ ♦✐❧ .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ✐♥❞✐❝❡. ❛. ✐. .❡❡♥ ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✺✳ ❚❤✐. ✐♥❞✐❝❛5❡. 5❤❛5 5❤❡.❡
✐♥❞✐❝❡.✱ ❛♥❞ ❤❡♥❝❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛(❦❡5 .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5✱ ❤❛. ❛ .✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥5 ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇(❡♥5
♦✐❧ ♣(✐❝❡.✳
✶✸
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
✹✳✶✳ #❡%❢♦%♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ .❡♥/✐♠❡♥/ ✐♥❞❡①
❚❤❡ #❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ♠❛❦❡ ❛ #%❛%✐#%✐❝❛❧❧② #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦✲
♥♦♠✐❝❛❧❧② ✐♠♣♦,%❛♥% ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧# ❢♦, ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡# ❞✉,✲
✐♥❣ %❤❡ ✶✷ ②❡❛,# ❢,♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛,② ✷✵✵✷ %♦ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡, ✷✵✶✸✳ ❚❤❡ ,❡#✉❧%# ❛,❡ ♣,❡#❡♥%❡❞ ✐♥
❚❛❜❧❡ ✺ ❛♥❞ #❤♦✇ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❛❞❥✉#%❡❞ ❘
2✐♥❝,❡❛#❡# ✐♥ %❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦
♠♦❞❡❧# ❢,♦♠ ✸✺✪ ❛♥❞ ✸✵✪ %♦ ✺✷✪ ❛♥❞ ✹✾✪ ,❡#♣❡❝%✐✈❡❧②❀ ✐♥ ❛❞❞✐%✐♦♥ %❤❡ ✈❛,✐❛♥❝❡ ,❛✲
%✐♦ %❡#% ✐# ♠✉❝❤ ♠♦,❡ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%✳ ▼♦,❡ ❢♦,♠❛❧❧②✱ %❤❡,❡ ✐# ❛ #%,♦♥❣❧② #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ,❡#✉❧%
❢,♦♠ %❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ,❛%✐♦ %❡#% ♦❢ %❤❡ ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ❛❢%❡, %❤❡
✐♥❝❧✉#✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ #❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥%✳
▲♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❛% %❤❡ ,❡#✉❧%# ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✺ ✐% ✐# ♥♦%❛❜❧❡ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥%# ♦❢ %❤❡ ❙✫P
✺✵✵✱ ❊✉,♦ ❙%♦①① ✺✵ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ❛,❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥#✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❡①❝❡♣% ❢♦, ❙%♦①① ❢♦, ❲❚■ ✇❤❡♥
#❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐# ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞❀ %❤✐# ❛♥♦♠❛❧② ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ,❡✈✐#✐%❡❞ ❜❡❧♦✇ ✐♥ #❡❝%✐♦♥ ✹✳✷✳ ❚❤✐# ✐# ✉♥❝♦♥✲
✈✐♥❝✐♥❣ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% %❤❡#❡ #%♦❝❦ ♠❛,❦❡%# ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡#✳ ❚❤✐# ,❡#✉❧% ✐#
✐♥ ❧✐♥❡ ✇✐%❤ %❤❡ ✜♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❙✫P✺✵✵ ✇❛# ♥♦% #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❢♦,
,♦✉❣❤❧② %❤❡ #❛♠❡ ♣❡,✐♦❞ ♦❢ %✐♠❡✳ ❋♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ %❤❡ ,❡#✉❧%# ♦❢ ❆❧Z✉✐#% ❛♥❞ ●❡,✈❛✐# ✭✷✵✶✸✮
❛♥❞ ❇❡✐,♥❡ ❡% ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✱ ✇❡ ✜♥❞ %❤❛% %❤❡,❡ ✐# ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❛% ❝♦♥✈❡♥%✐♦♥❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧# %❤❛% %❤❡
❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥# ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ♣,✐❝❡#✱ ❜✉% %❤✐# ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ,❡✈✐#✐%❡❞ ✐♥
#❡❝%✐♦♥ ✹✳✷✳
❚❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡# ✉#❡❞ ❛,❡ ❡①♣,❡##❡❞ ❛# %❤❡ ♣,✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❯❙✩✶ ✐♥ ✈❛,✐♦✉# ❧♦❝❛❧ ❝✉,,❡♥✲
❝✐❡#✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦✱ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛,✳ ❖♥❧② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❏❛♣❛♥❡#❡
❨❡♥ ❛,❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ %♦ ❜❡ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%✱ %❤♦✉❣❤ %❤❡ ❨❡♥ ✐# ♠✉❝❤ ❧❡## #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% %❤❛♥ %❤❡ ❊✉,♦✳
❚❤❡ ❝♦#% ♦❢ ♦♥❡ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛, ✐♥ ❏❛♣❛♥❡#❡ ❨❡♥ ❤❛# ❛ ♣♦#✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ %❤❛% ❛
✇❡❛❦❡♥✐♥❣ ❨❡♥ ✐# ♦♥ ❛✈❡,❛❣❡ ❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜② ❤✐❣❤❡, ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡# ♠❡❛#✉,❡❞ ✐♥ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛,#✳
❚❤❡ ❧✐♥❦# ❜❡%✇❡❡♥ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡# ❛♥❞ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡# ❛,❡ ♥♦% ❡♥%✐,❡❧② #%,❛✐❣❤%❢♦,✇❛,❞✱ ✭#❡❡
❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈③✉❞❛❥ ✷✵✶✸✱ ❛♥❞ ❘❡❜♦,❡❞♦ ✷✵✶✷✮✱ ❜✉% ✐% ✐# ❝❧❡❛, %❤❛% ❛♥ ❛♣♣,❡❝✐❛%✐♦♥
✐♥ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ✐# ❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜② ❛♣♣,❡❝✐❛%✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ ❝✉,,❡♥❝② ♦❢ %❤❡ ❡①♣♦,%❡,✱ ❛♥❞ #✐♥❝❡
❏❛♣❛♥ ♣,♦❞✉❝❡# ❛ ♠✉❝❤ #♠❛❧❧❡, ❛♠♦✉♥% ♦❢ ♦✐❧ %❤❛♥ %❤❡ ❯❙ ✭✶✹✵✱✵✵✵ ❜❛,,❡❧# ♣❡, ❞❛②
❢,♦♠ ❏❛♣❛♥ ✐♥ ❝♦♥%,❛#% %♦ ✶✶✱✶✶✵✱✵✵✵ ❢,♦♠ %❤❡ ❯❙✮
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✱ %❤❡ ♣♦#✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐# ✐♥ ❧✐♥❡
✇✐%❤ ❡①♣❡❝%❛%✐♦♥#✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ♦❢ %❤❡ ❝♦#% ♦❢ ❯❙✩✶ ✐♥ ❊✉,♦ ✐# ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%✐♥❣
%❤❛% ❛ ✇❡❛❦❡♥✐♥❣ ❊✉,♦ ❛❣❛✐♥#% %❤❡ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛, ✐#✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡,❛❣❡✱ ❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜② ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡
♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ,❡%✉,♥# ❛♥❞ #♦ ❛ ❢❛❧❧ ✐♥ %❤❡ ♣,✐❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♠❡❛#✉,❡❞ ✐♥ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛,#✳ ❚❤✐# ✐♥❞✐❝❛%❡#
%❤❛% ❛# %❤❡ ❊✉,♦ ✇❡❛❦❡♥# ❊✉,♦♣❡❛♥# ✇✐❧❧ ❛❝%✉❛❧❧② ❤❛✈❡ %♦ ❜✉② ❢❡✇❡, ♦❢ %❤❡ ♠♦,❡ ❡①✲
♣❡♥#✐✈❡ ❞♦❧❧❛,# %♦ ♣❛② ❢♦, ♦✐❧✳ ❚❤✐# ♠❛② ❜❡ ❜❡❝❛✉#❡ ❛ ❞❡♣,❡❝✐❛%✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ ❧♦❝❛❧ ❝✉,,❡♥❝②
❝❛✉#❡# ❧♦✇❡, ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦, ♦✐❧✱ ❛# ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ %❤❡ ✬❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛%✐♦♥ ❝❤❛♥♥❡❧✬ ❜② ❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥
❛♥❞ ❈③✉❞❛❥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❣,❡❛%❡, #✐③❡ ♦❢ ❊✉,♦③♦♥❡ ,❡❧❛%✐✈❡ %♦ ❏❛♣❛♥ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❢❛❝% %❤❛%
%❤❡ ❊✉,♦③♦♥❡ ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ❞♦❡# ♥♦% ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❯❑ ♦, ◆♦,✇❛②✮ ♣,♦❞✉❝❡# ✺✵✵✱✵✵✵ ❜❛,,❡❧# ♦❢ ♦✐❧
♣❡, ❞❛②✱ ♠❛② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✇❤② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐# ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡ ✇❤✐❧❡ %❤❡ ❨❡♥✬#
❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐# ♣♦#✐%✐✈❡✳
■% ✐# ✐♥%❡,❡#%✐♥❣ %❤❛% %❤❡,❡ ✐# ✈❡,② ✇❡❛❦ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❇❛❧%✐❝ ❉,② ■♥❞❡① ✭❇❉■✮
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❚❤❡ ✷✵✶✷ ❞❛(❛ ✐* ❢,♦♠ (❤❡ ❯❙ ❊♥❡,❣② ■♥❢♦,♠❛(✐♦♥ ❆❞♠✐♥✐*(,❛(✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✇❛* ❛❝❝❡**❡❞ ♦♥ ✷✾(❤
❖❝(♦❜❡, ✷✵✶✹ ❢,♦♠ ❤((♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳❡✐❛✳❣♦✈✴❝♦✉♥(,✐❡*✴
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✐! ❛!!♦❝✐❛%❡❞ ✇✐%❤ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡!❀ ✐% ✐! ♦♥❧② ❥✉!% !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❛% %❤❡ ✶✵✪ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤✐!
✐! ✉♥❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ❛! %❤❡ ❇❉■ ❤❛! ❜❡❡♥ ✉!❡❞ ❛! ❛ ♣,♦①② ❢♦, ✇♦,❧❞✇✐❞❡ ✐♥❞✉!%,✐❛❧ ❛❝%✐✈✐%②
❜② ▼✐%❝❤❡❧❧ ❡% ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✮✱ ❋,❛❧❡ ❡% ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✮✱ ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮✱ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮✱ ❛♥❞
❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦!% ♦❢ ❜♦,,♦✇✐♥❣ ❛! ♠❡❛!✉,❡❞ ❜② ▼♦♦❞②✬! ❆❛❛ ❝♦,♣♦,❛%❡ ❜♦♥❞
,❛%❡ ❤❛! %❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ♣♦!✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ❛! ❢♦✉♥❞ ❜② ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%✐♥❣ %❤❛%
❛! ❜♦,,♦✇✐♥❣ ❜❡❝♦♠❡! ♠♦,❡ ❡①♣❡♥!✐✈❡ !♦ ❞♦❡! ♦✐❧✳ ❆! ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ❜② %❤❡ ❧❛✇ ♦❢
!✉♣♣❧② ❛♥❞ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✱ %❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥%♦,② ❤❛! ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥%
❢♦, ❲❚■ ♣,✐❝❡! ❛♥❞ ❛ ❧❡!! !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ❢♦, ❇,❡♥% ♣,✐❝❡!✳ ❚❤❡,❡ ✐! ♥♦
❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% ✇♦,❧❞ ♦✐❧ !✉♣♣❧② ✐! !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%❀ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐! ✉♥❡①♣❡❝%❡❞✳ ❖T❊❈ !♣❛,❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐%②
✐! ❛ ♠❡❛!✉,❡ ♦❢ %❤❡ ❞✐✛❡,❡♥❝❡ ❜❡%✇❡❡♥ ❖T❊❈ ❝❛♣❛❝✐%② %♦ ❞❡❧✐✈❡, ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❛❝%✉❛❧
W✉❛♥%✐%② ❞❡❧✐✈❡,❡❞✱ ✐% ✐! %❤✉! ❛ ♠❡❛!✉,❡ ♦❢ ❤♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ♦✐❧ ❖T❊❈ ✐! ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ❜❛❝❦ ❢,♦♠ %❤❡
♠❛,❦❡%✳ ❚❤✐! ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡ ❤❛! ❛ ♣♦!✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ❛! ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞✳ ❋✐♥❛❧❧② %❤❡ ♣,♦♣♦,%✐♦♥ ♦❢
✇♦,❧❞ ♦✐❧ ♣,♦❞✉❝%✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐! ❢,♦♠ ❖T❊❈ ❤❛! ❛ !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ♣♦!✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❛%✐♥❣
%❤❛% ❖T❊❈ ❤❛! ❝♦♥!✐❞❡,❛❜❧❡ ♠❛,❦❡% ♣♦✇❡, ❛! ✐! ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ❢,♦♠ %❤❡ ✇♦,❦ ♦❢ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥
✭✷✵✵✹✮ ❛♥❞ ▲✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐! ✭✷✵✶✵✮✳
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❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ❉❡❝ ✷✵✶✸ ∆WTI ∆Brent
◆ ❂ ✶✹✸ ▼♦♥0❤2 ❇❡♥❝❤ ❇❡♥❝❤ ✰ ❙❡♥0✐♠❡♥0 ❇❡♥❝❤ ❇❡♥❝❤ ✰ ❙❡♥0✐♠❡♥0
∆S&P500 ✵✳✶✶✵ ✵✳✷✶✺ ✵✳✵✽✻ ✵✳✵✾✽
✭✵✳✺✶✮ ✭✵✳✶✹✮ ✭✵✳✻✷✮ ✭✵✳✺✷✮
∆Stoxx 50 ✲✵✳✷✹✾ ✲✵✳✸✹✵✯✯ ✲✵✳✷✶✺ ✲✵✳✶✽✻
✭✵✳✶✶✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✷✮ ✭✵✳✶✽✮ ✭✵✳✶✽✮
∆NKY ✵✳✵✹✾ ✲✵✳✵✼✻ ✵✳✵✻✵ ✲✵✳✵✹✶
✭✵✳✻✺✮ ✭✵✳✹✶✮ ✭✵✳✺✾✮ ✭✵✳✻✼✮
∆Hang Seng ✵✳✷✹✼✯✯ ✵✳✷✸✷✯✯ ✵✳✷✹✼✯✯ ✵✳✷✷✺✯✯
✭✵✳✵✸✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✽✮ ✭✵✳✵✸✼✮ ✭✵✳✵✷✽✮
∆USDEUR ✲✵✳✸✺✸✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✸✵✾✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✸✸✾✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✷✼✺✯✯✯
✭✶✳✹ ① ✶✵
−4✮ ✭✶✳✶ ① ✶✵
−4✮ ✭✹✳✷ ① ✶✵
−4✮ ✭✾✳✸ ① ✶✵
−4✮
∆USDJPY ✵✳✶✾✼✯✯ ✵✳✷✶✸✯✯✯ ✵✳✶✺✷✯ ✵✳✶✶✷
✭✵✳✵✷✸✮ ✭✵✳✵✵✹✮ ✭✵✳✵✾✵✮ ✭✵✳✶✺✮
∆USDHKD ✵✳✵✼✹ ✵✳✵✶✵ ✵✳✶✶✽ ✵✳✵✹✷
✭✵✳✸✷✮ ✭✵✳✽✽✮ ✭✵✳✶✸✮ ✭✵✳✺✸✮
∆BDI ✵✳✶✵✼ ✵✳✵✼✽ ✵✳✶✶✵ ✵✳✶✶✸✯
✭✵✳✶✻✮ ✭✵✳✷✸✮ ✭✵✳✶✻✮ ✭✵✳✵✾✼✮
∆MoodyCAAA ✵✳✷✶✸✯✯✯ ✵✳✶✷✺✯✯ ✵✳✶✼✸✯✯ ✵✳✶✺✹✯✯
✭✵✳✵✵✸✹✮ ✭✵✳✵✹✾✮ ✭✵✳✵✷✷✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✽✮
∆US Oil Inventory ✲✵✳✶✽✻✯✯ ✲✵✳✶✻✹✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✶✸✼✯ ✲✵✳✵✽✹✯✯
✭✵✳✵✶✶✮ ✭✵✳✵✵✾✻✮ ✭✵✳✵✼✸✮ ✭✵✳✵✷✵✮
∆World Oil Supply ✵✳✵✽✺ ✵✳✵✻✻ ✵✳✵✹✻ ✲✵✳✵✶✹
✭✵✳✷✼✮ ✭✵✳✸✷✮ ✭✵✳✺✼✮ ✭✵✳✽✹✮
∆OPEC Spare Capacity ✵✳✷✶✾✯✯✯ ✵✳✶✶✽✯ ✵✳✷✵✸✯✯ ✵✳✵✻✾
✭✵✳✵✵✼✻✮ ✭✵✳✶✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✼✮ ✭✵✳✸✻✮
∆OPEC Proportion ✵✳✶✻✼✯✯ ✵✳✶✹✸✯✯ ✵✳✶✻✺✯✯ ✵✳✶✼✺✯✯
✭✵✳✵✸✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✸✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✸✾✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✶✮
∆Oil Sentiment ✵✳✹✹✸✯✯✯ ✵✳✹✺✾✯✯✯
✭✹✳✺ ① ✶✵
−10✮ ✭✹✳✸ ① ✶✵
−10✮
▲♦❣ ▲✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ✶✻✹✳✹✸ ✶✹✷✳✻✹ ✶✼✵✳✸✻ ✶✹✽✳✺✵
♣✲✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ 0❤❡ ▲✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞
❘❛0✐♦ ❚❡20
✹✳✶ ① ✶✵
−11✸✳✽ ① ✶✵
−11
❱❛D✐❛♥❝❡ ❘❛0✐♦ ✭❋✮ ❚❡20 ✹✳✻ ① ✶✵
−10✷✳✼ ① ✶✵
−17✹✳✾ ① ✶✵
−8✸✳✺ ① ✶✵
−15
❆❞❥✉20❡❞ ❘
2✸✺✳✸✪ ✺✶✳✾✪ ✷✾✳✼✪ ✹✼✳✽✪
❚❤❡ #❛❜❧❡ '❤♦✇' ❖▲❙ -❡❣-❡''✐♦♥ -❡'✉❧#' ❢♦- #❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥# ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛-❦ ♠♦❞❡❧' ❜❡❢♦-❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❢#❡- #❤❡ ✐♥❝❧✉'✐♦♥ ♦❢
#❤❡ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❞❡'❝-✐❜❡❞ ❜② ❊=♥'✳ ✭✸✳✶✮ ❛♥❞ ✭✸✳✷✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❞❛#❛ ❤❛' ❜❡❡♥ ✜-'# ❞✐✛❡-❡♥❝❡❞ ❛♥❞ '#❛♥❞❛-❞✐③❡❞✳ ❚❤❡
❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ -❛#✐♦ #❡'# ❢♦-♠❛❧❧② ❝♦♠♣❛-❡' ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣❡-❢♦-♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ♠♦❞❡❧ ✭❇❡♥❝❤ ✰ ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✮ -❡❧❛#✐✈❡ #♦ #❤❡
❜❡♥❝❤♠❛-❦ ✭❇❡♥❝❤✮ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ✯✱ ✯✯ ❛♥❞ ✯✯✯ ✐♥❞✐❝❛#❡ '✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ❛# #❤❡ ✶✵✪✱ ✺✪ ❛♥❞ ✶✪ ❧❡✈❡❧'❀ ♣✲✈❛❧✉❡' ❛♣♣❡❛- ✐♥ ❜-❛❝❦❡#'
❜❡❧♦✇ ❡❛❝❤ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥#✳ ❇♦❧❞ ♣-✐♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❛#❡' ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥#' ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇❡-❡ '✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥# ✉♥❞❡- #❤❡ ●❡♥❡-❛❧✐'❡❞ ❍♦❧♠ ▼✉❧#✐♣❧❡
❍②♣♦#❤❡'✐' ❚❡'#✐♥❣ ❢-❛♠❡✇♦-❦✳
❚❛❜❧❡ ✺✿ ❖▲❙ ❘❡❣D❡22✐♦♥ ❘❡2✉❧02 ❢♦D ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇D❡♥0 ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ✷✵✶✸
✶✻
ACC
EPTE
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
✹✳✷✳ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ *❡+✉❧.+ ❛♥❞ ❞✐+❝✉++✐♦♥
❘❡❝♦❣♥✐③✐♥❣ (❤❡ ♥♦✈❡❧ ♥❛(✉.❡ ♦❢ ♦✉. .❡0❡❛.❝❤ ✐♥(♦ ♦✐❧ ♠❛.❦❡( 0❡♥(✐♠❡♥(✱ ✇❡ ❞❡❧✐❜✲
❡.❛(❡❧② (❛❦❡ ❛ ♣.✉❞❡♥( ❛♣♣.♦❛❝❤✳ ❚❤❡.❡ ✐0 ❛ ♠✉❧.✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛*✐+♦♥+ ♣*♦❜❧❡♠ (❤❛( ❡①✐0(0
✐♥ (❤✐0 (❡0(✐♥❣ ❢.❛♠❡✇♦.❦❀ ✐( ✐0 ❛ 0♦✉.❝❡ ♦❢ ❜✐❛0 (❤❛( ✇❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝✐(❧② ❛❞❞.❡00 ❜② ❛♣♣❧②✲
✐♥❣ .❡❝❡♥(❧② ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❣❡♥❡*❛❧✐+❡❞ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0✐0 (❡0(✐♥❣ ✭▼❍❚✮ (❡❝❤♥✐B✉❡0✳ ❚❤❡
♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ ♦❝❝✉.0 ✇❤❡♥ ❛ ❧❛.❣❡ ♥✉♠❜❡. ♦❢ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0✐0 (❡0(0 ❛.❡ ♣❡.✲
❢♦.♠❡❞ 0✐♠✉❧(❛♥❡♦✉0❧②✱ ❧❡❛❞✐♥❣ (♦ ❛ ♥♦♥✲♥❡❣❧✐❣✐❜❧❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ (❤❛( 0♦♠❡ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧❧②
0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥( .❡0✉❧(0 ♠❛② ❜❡ ✐❞❡♥(✐✜❡❞ ❜② ♣✉.❡ .❛♥❞♦♠ ❝❤❛♥❝❡ ❛❧♦♥❡✱ .❛(❤❡. (❤❛♥ ❛0 ❛
.❡0✉❧( ♦❢ ❛♥② ✉♥❞❡.❧②✐♥❣ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧ .❡❧❛(✐♦♥0❤✐♣0✳ ■♥ ♦✉. (❡0(✐♥❣ ❢.❛♠❡✇♦.❦✱ (❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧
0♣❡❝✐✜❝❛(✐♦♥0 0❡( ♦✉( ❛ (♦(❛❧ ♦❢ ✾✷ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0✐0 (❡0(0 ❝♦♠♣.✐0✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧
❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥( (❡0(0✱ ❋ (❡0(0✱ (❤❡ ✉♥.❡♣♦.(❡❞ ❆❉❋ (❡0(0 ❛♥❞ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ .❛(✐♦ (❡0(0✳ ❍❡♥❝❡✱
(❤❡ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ ✐0 ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦.(❛♥( ✐00✉❡ (♦ ❝♦♥0✐❞❡. ❛♥❞ ❛❞❞.❡00 ✐♥ ♦.❞❡.
(♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ .♦❜✉0( ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥0✳ ❋♦. ❛ ♠♦.❡ (❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ (.❡❛(♠❡♥( ♦❢ ▼❍❚ ✐00✉❡0✱ 0❡❡ ❍♦❧♠
✭✶✾✼✾✮✱ ❘♦♠❛♥♦✱ ❙❤❛✐❦❤ ❛♥❞ ❲♦❧❢ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ ❈✉♠♠✐♥0 ✭✷✵✶✸❛✮ ❛♥❞ ❈✉♠♠✐♥0 ✭✷✵✶✸❜✮✳
❚♦ ❣✐✈❡ (❤❡ ❣.❡❛(❡0( ♣♦✇❡. (♦ ✐❞❡♥(✐❢② (.✉❡ ❞✐0❝♦✈❡.✐❡0✱ ✇❡ 0❡( ❛ ♣.♦❜❛❜✐❧✐(② ♦❢ α = 0.1
❛0 (❤❡ ✉♣♣❡. ❜♦✉♥❞ ♣.♦❜❛❜✐❧✐(② (❤❛( (❤❡.❡ ❛.❡ k = 5 ♦. ♠♦.❡ ❢❛❧0❡ .❡❥❡❝(✐♦♥0 ♦❢ ♥✉❧❧
❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 ❛♠♦♥❣0( (❤❡ ✾✷ (❡0(0❀ ✇❡ ❝❤♦♦0❡ ✺ ❛0 (❤✐0 ✐0 ❛♣♣.♦①✐♠❛(❡❧② ✺✪ ♦❢ (❤❡ (♦(❛❧
♥✉♠❜❡. ♦❢ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 (❡0(❡❞✳ ❯0✐♥❣ (❤❡0❡ ❝.✐(❡.✐❛ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠✉❝❤ ♠♦.❡ ❛00✉.❡❞ (❤❛(
(❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥0 ✇❡ ❞.❛✇ ❛.❡ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧❧② .❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ .♦❜✉0(✳ ■♥ (❤✐0 ♣❛.(✐❝✉❧❛. 0(✉❞②✱
(❤❡ ❣❡♥❡.❛❧✐0❡❞ ❍♦❧♠ ♣.♦❝❡❞✉.❡ ✭❘♦♠❛♥♦✱ ❙❤❛✐❦❤ ❛♥❞ ❲♦❧❢✱ ✷✵✶✵✮ ❧❡❛❞0 ✉0 (♦ .❡❥❡❝(
✹✽ ♥✉❧❧ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛( (❤❡ ❝♦♥✈❡♥(✐♦♥❛❧ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✺✪✱ ✻✸ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 ✇♦✉❧❞
❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ .❡❥❡❝(❡❞✳ ❚❤✐0 ▼❍❚ ❢.❛♠❡✇♦.❦ ✐0 ♠♦.❡ ❝♦♥0❡.✈❛(✐✈❡ (❤❛♥ ❝♦♥✈❡♥(✐♦♥❛❧ 0✐❣✲
♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧0✱ ✇❤❡.❡ ✐♥ (❤❡ ❧❛((❡. ❝❛0❡ ♦♥❡ ✐❣♥♦.❡0 (❤❡ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠✳
■♥ 0♦ ❞♦✐♥❣ ✇.♦♥❣ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥0 ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❞.❛✇♥ ❢.♦♠ (❤❡ ❡①(.❛ ✶✺ .❡❥❡❝(❡❞
♥✉❧❧ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0✳ ❲✐(❤ (❤✐0 ♠♦(✐✈❛(✐♦♥ ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡✱ ✇❡ .❡✈✐0✐( (❤❡ .❡0✉❧(0 0❡( ♦✉( ✐♥ (❤❡
♣.❡✈✐♦✉0 0❡❝(✐♦♥ ✭✹✳✶✮ ❛♥❞ 0❡❡❦ (♦ ❛❞❞.❡00 (❤❡ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ (❤❛( ✇❛0
♥♦( ❡①♣❧✐❝✐(❧② ❝♦♥0✐❞❡.❡❞✳ ❚❤✐0 ✐0 ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦.(❛♥( 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧ ❝♦..❡❝(✐♦♥ ♠✐00✐♥❣ ❢.♦♠ ♣.✐♦.
0❡♥(✐♠❡♥( ✐♥✈❡0(✐❣❛(✐♦♥0✳
■♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✺ .❡0✉❧(0 ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛.❡ ❝♦♥0✐❞❡.❡❞ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥( ✉♥❞❡. (❤❡ ▼❍❚ ♣.♦❝❡00 ❛.❡ ✐♥✲
❞✐❝❛(❡❞ ✐♥ ❜♦❧❞✳ ▼♦0( ♥♦(❛❜❧②✱ (❤❡.❡ ✐0 ♥♦ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ (♦ (❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥ (❤❛( (❤❡ 0❡♥(✐♠❡♥(
✐♥❞✐❝❡0 ❢♦. ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇.❡♥( ♦✐❧ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(❧② ❛❝❝♦✉♥( ❢♦. ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡0✳ ❚❤✐0 ✐0 ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦.✲
(❛♥( ✜♥❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧♦✇0 ✉0 (♦ ❛.❣✉❡ ✇✐(❤ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ (❤❛( 0❡♥(✐♠❡♥( ❛✛❡❝(0
♣.♦❢❡00✐♦♥❛❧❧② (.❛❞❡❞ ♦✐❧ ♠❛.❦❡(0✳ ■( ✐0 ❛❧0♦ ❢♦✉♥❞ (❤❛( (❤❡ ❯❙✩ ❊✉.♦ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛(❡
0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥0 (❤❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥( ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡0✳ ❆( (❤❡ ♠♦.❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❧❡✈❡❧0 ♦❢ 0✐❣✲
♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ .❡B✉✐.❡❞ ❜② (❤❡ ▼❍❚ ♣.♦❝❡❞✉.❡✱ (❤❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧♦✉0 .❡0✉❧( ❢♦✉♥❞ ♣.❡✈✐♦✉0❧② (❤❛(
❝❤❛♥❣❡0 ✐♥ (❤❡ ❙(♦①① ✺✵ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❲❚■ ♣.✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥(0 ✐0 ♥♦( ❢♦✉♥❞ (♦ ❜❡ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(✳
❋✉.(❤❡.♠♦.❡ (❤❡ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ❛♥❞ (❤❡ ❇❉■ ❛.❡ ♥♦( ❢♦✉♥❞ (♦ ❜❡ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙✩
❨❡♥ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛(❡✱ (❤❡ ▼♦♦❞② ❝♦.♣♦.❛(❡ ❜♦♥❞ .❛(❡✱ (❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥(♦.②✱ ❖_❊❈ 0♣❛.❡
❝❛♣❛❝✐(② ❛♥❞ ❖_❊❈ ♣.♦♣♦.(✐♦♥ ❛.❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ (♦ ❜❡ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(✳
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✺✳ ❈♦♥❝❧✉(✐♦♥
❲❡ ✜♥❞ %❤❛% (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐( ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦-%❛♥% ❝♦♥(✐❞❡-❛%✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞
❇-❡♥% ♣-✐❝❡( ✉(✐♥❣ ❞❛%❛ ❢-♦♠ ❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✷ %♦ ❉❡❝ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❚❤✐( ✇❛( ❞♦♥❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ %❤❡
♠❡%❤♦❞( ♦❢ ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❜② ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡( ❢♦- ❜♦%❤ ❲❚■
❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥% ✉(✐♥❣ (✐♠✐❧❛- ♣-♦①✐❡( %♦ %❤♦(❡ ✉(❡❞ ✐♥ ❡E✉✐%✐❡( -❡(❡❛-❝❤✳ ❚❤❡ %✇♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡(
✇❡-❡ ❝♦♥(%-✉❝%❡❞ ✉(✐♥❣ ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥% ❛♥❛❧②(✐( ♦❢ %❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ♣-♦①✐❡(✿
✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ❢✉%✉-❡( ❝♦♥%-❛❝%(✱ %❤❡ ✈♦❧❛%✐❧✐%② ♦❢ %❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡✱ ♦✐❧ (♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%♦-(✱ %❤❡
♣✉%✲❝❛❧❧ -❛%✐♦ ❢♦- ♦♣%✐♦♥( ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ❢✉%✉-❡( ❛♥❞ (%♦❝❦ ✐♥❞❡① ✈♦❧❛%✐❧✐%②✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❝❧✉(✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡(❡
(❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡( (✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%❧② ✐♠♣-♦✈❡❞ %❤❡ ♣❡-❢♦-♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧( ❢♦- ♦✐❧
♣-✐❝❡( ❛( ♠❡❛(✉-❡❞ ❜② %❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ -❛%✐♦ %❡(% ❛♥❞ ❛❧(♦ ❜-♦✉❣❤% ❛❜♦✉% ❛ ❧❛-❣❡ ✐♥❝-❡❛(❡
✐♥ %❤❡ ❛❞❥✉(%❡❞ ❘
2(%❛%✐(%✐❝✳ ❚❤❡ ✜♥❞✐♥❣( ❛-❡ (✉♣♣♦-%❡❞ ❜② ❛ ♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦%❤❡(✐( %❡(%✐♥❣
❢-❛♠❡✇♦-❦ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❣✐✈❡( ❛ ✈❡-② ❤✐❣❤ ❞❡❣-❡❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% ✇❡ ❛-❡ ♥♦% ♠❡-❡❧② ♦❜(❡-✈✐♥❣
❛ ❝❤❛♥❝❡ -❡(✉❧% ❞✉❡ %♦ %❤❡ ♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛-✐(♦♥ ♣-♦❜❧❡♠✳
❙❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ❤❛( ❛❧-❡❛❞② ❜❡❡♥ (❡❡♥ %♦ ❛✛❡❝% ❡E✉✐%② ♠❛-❦❡%(✱ ♦✉- ✜♥❞✐♥❣( ❡①♣❛♥❞ (❡♥%✐✲
♠❡♥% %♦ ❡♥❡-❣② ♠❛-❦❡%(✳ ❚❤✐( ♥♦% ♦♥❧② ❧❡❛✈❡( ♦♣❡♥ %❤❡ ♣♦((✐❜✐❧✐%② %❤❛% (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡(
❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝♦♥(%-✉❝%❡❞ ❢♦- ❡♥❡-❣② ♠❛-❦❡%( ♦%❤❡- %❤❛♥ ♦✐❧ ✭❣❛( ❛♥❞ ❝♦❛❧ ❜❡✐♥❣ %❤❡ ♥❛%✉-❛❧
♥❡①% (%❡♣(✮✱ ❜✉% ❛❧(♦ ❛❝%( ❛( ❛ ❝❛❧❧ ❢♦- ❢✉-%❤❡- -❡(❡❛-❝❤ ♦♥ %❤❡ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐(♠ ❜② ✇❤✐❝❤
(❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡( ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝✐♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❧(♦ ❛ ❞❡❝♦♠♣♦(✐%✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤✐( (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡
✐♥%♦ ✐%( -❛%✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐--❛%✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥%(✳ ❚❤✐( ❧❛%%❡- ✐♥✈❡(%✐❣❛%✐♦♥ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ♦❢ ♣❛-✲
%✐❝✉❧❛- ❜❡♥❡✜% %♦ ♣♦❧✐❝② ♠❛❦❡-( (❡❡❦✐♥❣ %♦ ❝♦♥%-♦❧ ✐--❛%✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①✉❜❡-❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❡((✐✈❡
(♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ✇✐%❤ ✐%( ❛((♦❝✐❛%❡❞ ✐♠♣❛❝% ♦♥ %❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠②
❘❡❢❡-❡♥❝❡(
❆❜♦✉-❛✱ ❙✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❈❤❡✈❛❧❧✐❡-✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏▲❡✈❡-❛❣❡ ✈(✳ ❢❡❡❞❜❛❝❦✿ ❲❤✐❝❤ ❡✛❡❝% ❞-✐✈❡( %❤❡ ♦✐❧
♠❛-❦❡%❄✑ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ❘❡'❡❛(❝❤ ▲❡++❡(' ✶✵✭✸✮✿✶✸✶ ✕ ✶✹✶✳
❆❝❤❛-②❛✱ ❱✳❱✳✱ ▲✳❆✳ ▲♦❝❤(%♦❡- ❛♥❞ ❚✳ ❘❛♠❛❞♦-❛✐✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏▲✐♠✐%( %♦ ❛-❜✐%-❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❞❣✲
✐♥❣✿ ❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢-♦♠ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐%② ♠❛-❦❡%(✳✑ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝' ✶✵✾✭✷✮✿✹✹✶
✕ ✹✻✺✳
❆❧E✉✐(%✱ ❘✳ ❛♥❞ ❖✳ ●❡-✈❛✐(✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❘♦❧❡ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❙♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❉-✐✈✐♥❣ %❤❡
^-✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❈-✉❞❡ ❖✐❧✳✑ ❊♥❡(❣② ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ✸✹✭✸✮✿✸✺ ✕ ✺✹✳
❇❛❦❡-✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❲✉-❣❧❡-✳ ✷✵✵✻✳ ✏■♥✈❡(%♦- (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❝-♦(( (❡❝%✐♦♥ ♦❢ (%♦❝❦
-❡%✉-♥(✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✻✶✿✶✻✹✺ ✕ ✶✻✽✵✳
❇❛❦❡-✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❲✉-❣❧❡-✳ ✷✵✵✼✳ ✏■♥✈❡(%♦- (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥ %❤❡ (%♦❝❦ ♠❛-❦❡%✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧
♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ 6❡('♣❡❝+✐✈❡' ✷✶✭✷✮✿✶✷✾✕✶✺✶✳
❇❛❦❡-✱ ▼✳✱ ❏✳ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ❛♥❞ ❨✳ ❨✉❛♥✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏●❧♦❜❛❧✱ ❧♦❝❛❧✱ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥%❛❣✐♦✉( ✐♥✈❡(%♦-
(❡♥%✐♠❡♥%✳✑ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝' ✶✵✹✭✷✮✿✷✼✷ ✕ ✷✽✼✳
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❇❛❦❡$✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳❈✳ ❙-❡✐♥✳ ✷✵✵✹✳ ✏▼❛$❦❡- ❧✐4✉✐❞✐-② ❛7 ❛ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ✐♥❞✐❝❛-♦$✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢
❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛#❦❡./ ✼✭✸✮✿✷✼✶✕✷✾✾✳
❇❛$❜❡$✐7✱ ◆✳✱ ❆✳ ❙❤❧❡✐❢❡$ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❱✐7❤♥②✳ ✶✾✾✽✳ ✏❆ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡7-♦$ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥-✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧
♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✹✾✭✸✮✿✸✵✼ ✕ ✸✹✸✳
❇❛$❜❡$✐7✱ ◆✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❚❤❛❧❡$✳ ✷✵✵✸✳ ❆ /✉#✈❡② ♦❢ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦#❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❆❜✐♥❞❣♦♥✿❘♦✉-❧✐❞❣❡✳
❇❛-❤✐❛✱ ❉✳ ❛♥❞ ❉✳ ❇$❡❞✐♥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❆♥ ❡①❛♠✐♥❛-✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡7-♦$ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ❡✛❡❝- ♦♥ ●✼
7-♦❝❦ ♠❛$❦❡- $❡-✉$♥7✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❊✉#♦♣❡❛♥ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✾✭✾✮✿✾✵✾✕✾✸✼✳
❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥✱ ❏✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❈③✉❞❛❥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏■7 -❤❡$❡ ❛ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡♦✉7 ❝❛✉7❛❧✐-② ♣❛--❡$♥ ❜❡-✇❡❡♥
♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ ❝✉$$❡♥❝✐❡7 ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ✐♠♣♦$-❡$7 ❛♥❞ ❡①♣♦$-❡$7❄✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✹✵✿✻✻✺
✕ ✻✼✽✳
❇❡✐$♥❡✱ ❏✳✱ ❈✳ ❇❡✉❧❡♥✱ ●✳ ▲✐✉ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ▼✐$③❛❡✐✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏●❧♦❜❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ -❤❡ ✐♠♣❛❝-
♦❢ ❈❤✐♥❛✳✑ ❈❤✐♥❛ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✷✼✭✵✮✿✸✼ ✕ ✺✶✳
❇♦$♦✈❦♦✈❛✱ ❙✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏◆❡✇7 ❆♥❛❧②-✐❝7 ❢♦$ ❊♥❡$❣② ❋✉-✉$❡7✳✑ ❆✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛. ❙❙❘◆ ✶✼✶✾✺✽✷
✳
❇$❛❤♠❛7$❡♥❡✱ ❚✳✱ ❏✳ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❨✳ ❙✐77♦❦♦✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✏❈$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ $❛-❡7✿
❈❛✉7❛❧✐-②✱ ✈❛$✐❛♥❝❡ ❞❡❝♦♠♣♦7✐-✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣✉❧7❡ $❡7♣♦♥7❡✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✹✹✿✹✵✼
✕ ✹✶✷✳
❇✉♥♥✱ ❉✳❲✳ ❛♥❞ ❉✳ ❈❤❡♥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❢♦$✇❛$❞ ♣$❡♠✐✉♠ ✐♥ ❡❧❡❝-$✐❝✐-② ❢✉-✉$❡7✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧
♦❢ ❊♠♣✐#✐❝❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✸✿✶✼✸ ✕ ✶✽✻✳
❈❛♥❜❛➩✱ ❙✳ ❛♥❞ ❙✳❨✳ ❑❛♥❞✙$✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏■♥✈❡7-♦$ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ❛♥❞ 7-♦❝❦ $❡-✉$♥ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢$♦♠
❚✉$❦❡②✳✑ ❊♠❡#❣✐♥❣ ▼❛#❦❡./ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❚#❛❞❡ ✹✺✭✹✮✿✸✻✕✺✷✳
❈❤✉♥❣✱ ❙❛♥✲▲✐♥✱ ❈❤✐✲❍7✐♦✉ ❍✉♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❈❤✉♥❣✲❨✐♥❣ ❨❡❤✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏❲❤❡♥ ❞♦❡7 ✐♥✈❡7-♦$
7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ♣$❡❞✐❝- 7-♦❝❦ $❡-✉$♥7❄✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♠♣✐#✐❝❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✾✭✷✮✿✷✶✼ ✕ ✷✹✵✳
❈✐❢❛$❡❧❧✐✱ ●✳ ❛♥❞ ●✳ e❛❧❛❞✐♥♦✳ ✷✵✶✵✳ ✏❖✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝7 ❛♥❞ 7♣❡❝✉❧❛-✐♦♥✿ ❆ ♠✉❧-✐✈❛$✐❛-❡
✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♣♣$♦❛❝❤✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✸✷✭✷✮✿✸✻✸ ✕ ✸✼✷✳
❈♦❛-❡7✱ ❏✳ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❍❡$❜❡$-✳ ✷✵✵✽✳ ✏❊♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉7 7-❡$♦✐❞7 ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ $✐7❦ -❛❦✐♥❣ ♦♥ ❛
▲♦♥❞♦♥ -$❛❞✐♥❣ ✢♦♦$✳✑ G#♦❝❡❡❞✐♥❣/ ♦❢ .❤❡ ◆❛.✐♦♥❛❧ ❆❝❛❞❡♠② ♦❢ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡/ ♦❢ .❤❡ ❯♥✐.❡❞
❙.❛.❡/ ♦❢ ❆♠❡#✐❝❛ ✶✵✺✭✶✻✮✿✻✶✻✼✕✻✶✼✷✳
❈♦❧❡♠❛♥✱ ▲✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏❊①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ✉7✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥-❛❧ ♠❡❛7✉$❡7✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣②
G♦❧✐❝② ✶✵✿✸✶✽✕✸✷✹✳
❈✉♠♠✐♥7✱ ▼✳ ✷✵✶✸❛✳ ✏❊❯ ❊❚❙ ♠❛$❦❡- ✐♥-❡$❛❝-✐♦♥7✿ ❚❤❡ ❝❛7❡ ❢♦$ ♠✉❧-✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦-❤❡7✐7
-❡7-✐♥❣ ❛♣♣$♦❛❝❤❡7✳✑ ❆♣♣❧✐❡❞ ❊♥❡#❣② ✶✶✶✭✵✮✿✼✵✶ ✕ ✼✵✾✳
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
❈✉♠♠✐♥%✱ ▼✳ ✷✵✶✸❜✳ ✏▼✉❧/✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛5✐%♦♥% ♣5♦❜❧❡♠✿ ❘❡❝❡♥/ ❛❞✈❛♥❝❡% ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ /♦
❡♥❡5❣② ❛♥❞ ❡♠✐%%✐♦♥%✳✑ ❆♣♣❧✐❡❞ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ▲❡..❡/, ✭✷✵✮✿✾✵✸✕✾✵✾✳
❉♦✇❧✐♥❣✱ ▼✳✱ ▼✳ ❈✉♠♠✐♥% ❛♥❞ ❇✳▼✳ ▲✉❝❡②✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✏G%②❝❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❜❛55✐❡5% ✐♥ ♦✐❧ ❢✉/✉5❡%
♠❛5❦❡/%✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ♣✳ ✐♥ ♣5❡%%✳
❋❛♥✱ ❨✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳❍✳ ❳✉✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❲❤❛/ ❤❛% ❞5✐✈❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣5✐❝❡% %✐♥❝❡ ✷✵✵✵❄ ❆ %/5✉❝/✉5❛❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡
♣❡5%♣❡❝/✐✈❡✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ✸✸✭✻✮✿✶✵✽✷ ✕ ✶✵✾✹✳
❋❡♥/♦♥✲❖✬❈5❡❡✈②✱ ▼✳✱ ❊✳ ❙♦❛♥❡✱ ◆✳ ◆✐❝❤♦❧%♦♥ ❛♥❞ G✳ ❲✐❧❧♠❛♥✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❚❤✐♥❦✐♥❣✱ ❢❡❡❧✐♥❣
❛♥❞ ❞❡❝✐❞✐♥❣✿ ❚❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❡♠♦/✐♦♥% ♦♥ /❤❡ ❞❡❝✐%✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♣❡5❢♦5♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢
/5❛❞❡5%✳✑ ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❖/❣❛♥✐③❛.✐♦♥❛❧ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦/ ✸✷✭✽✮✿✶✵✹✹ ✕ ✶✵✻✶✳
❋5❛❧❡✱ ❈✳✱ ▼✳ ▼❛5❝❡❧❧✐♥♦✱ ●✳▲✳ ▼❛③③✐ ❛♥❞ ❚✳ G5♦✐❡//✐✳ ✷✵✵✽✳ ✏❆ ♠♦♥/❤❧② ✐♥❞✐❝❛/♦5 ♦❢ /❤❡
❊✉5♦ ❛5❡❛ ●❉G✳✑ ❊✉/♦♣❡❛♥ ❯♥✐✈❡/,✐.② ■♥,.✐.✉.❡ ❲♦/❦✐♥❣ ?❛♣❡/, ✷✵✵✽✴✸✷✳
❋5♦♦/✱ ❑✳✱ ❏✳ ❆5❛❜❛❦❥✐%✱ ❙✳ ❈❛/❡% ❛♥❞ ❙✳ ▲❛✇5❡♥❝❡✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ❧♦%%
❛✈❡5%✐♦♥ ❢5♦♠ ❝✉55❡♥❝② ♣♦5/❢♦❧✐♦%✳✑ ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ?♦/.❢♦❧✐♦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥. ✸✽✭✶✮✿✻✵ ✕ ✻✽✳
❍✐❝❦%✱ ❏✳ ✶✾✸✾✳ ❱❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❈❛♣✐.❛❧✳ ❖①❢♦5❞ ❯♥✈❡5%✐/② G5❡%%✳
❍✐5%❤❧❡✐❢❡5✱ ❉✳ ✶✾✾✵✳ ✏❍❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣5❡%%✉5❡ ❛♥❞ ❢✉/✉5❡% ♣5✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥/% ✐♥ ❛ ❣❡♥❡5❛❧ ❡d✉✐✲
❧✐❜5✐✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡./✐❝❛ ✺✽✭✷✮✿✹✶✶✕✹✷✽✳
❍♦❧♠✱ ❙✳ ✶✾✼✾✳ ✏❆ %✐♠♣❧❡ %❡d✉❡♥/✐❛❧❧② 5❡❥❡❝/✐✈❡ ♠✉❧/✐♣❧❡ /❡%/ ♣5♦❝❡❞✉5❡✳✑ ❙❝❛♥❞✐♥❛✈✐❛♥
❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❙.❛.✐,.✐❝, ✻✭✷✮✿✻✺✕✼✵✳
❏♦♥❡%✱ ❈✳▼✳ ❛♥❞ ●✳ ❑❛✉❧✳ ✶✾✾✻✳ ✏❖✐❧ ❛♥❞ /❤❡ ❙/♦❝❦ ▼❛5❦❡/%✳✑ ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡
✺✶✭✷✮✿✹✻✸ ✕ ✹✾✶✳
❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥✱ ❘✳❑✳ ✷✵✵✹✳ ✏❉♦❡% ❖G❊❈ ▼❛//❡5❄ ❆♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡/5✐❝ ❆♥❛❧②%✐% ♦❢ ❖✐❧ G5✐❝❡%✳✑
❊♥❡/❣② ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ✷✺✭✹✮✿✻✼ ✕ ✾✵✳
❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥✱ ❘✳❑✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❚❤❡ 5♦❧❡ ♦❢ ♠❛5❦❡/ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥/❛❧% ❛♥❞ %♣❡❝✉❧❛/✐♦♥ ✐♥ 5❡❝❡♥/
♣5✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡% ❢♦5 ❝5✉❞❡ ♦✐❧✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ?♦❧✐❝② ✸✾✭✶✮✿✶✵✺ ✕ ✶✶✺✳
❑❡②♥❡%✱ ❏✳ ✶✾✸✵✳ ❚/❡❛.✐,❡ ♦♥ ▼♦♥❡②✳ ▼❛❝♠✐❧❧❛♥ ▲♦♥❞♦♥✳
❑✐❧✐❛♥✱ ▲✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏◆♦/ ❛❧❧ ♦✐❧ ♣5✐❝❡ %❤♦❝❦% ❛5❡ ❛❧✐❦❡✿ ❉✐%❡♥/❛♥❣❧✐♥❣ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ %✉♣♣❧②
%❤♦❝❦% ✐♥ /❤❡ ❝5✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛5❦❡/✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❆♠❡/✐❝❛♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✾✾✭✸✮✿✶✵✺✸✕✶✵✻✾✳
❑♦❧♦❞③✐❡❥✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳❑✳ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❚❤❡ 5♦❧❡ ♦❢ /5❛❞❡5 ♣♦%✐/✐♦♥% ✐♥ %♣♦/ ❛♥❞
❢✉/✉5❡% ♣5✐❝❡% ❢♦5 ❲❚■✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ✹✵✿✶✼✻ ✕ ✶✽✷✳
▲❡♠♠♦♥✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❊✳ G♦5/♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛✳ ✷✵✵✻✳ ✏❈♦♥%✉♠❡5 ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❛%%❡/ ♣5✐❝❡%✿ ❙♦♠❡
❡♠♣✐5✐❝❛❧ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❙.✉❞✐❡, ✶✾✭✹✮✿✶✹✾✾✕✶✺✷✾✳
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
▲✐✱ ❍✳ ❛♥❞ ❙✳❳✳ ▲✐♥✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❉♦ ❡♠❡2❣✐♥❣ ♠❛2❦❡56 ♠❛55❡2 ✐♥ 5❤❡ ✇♦2❧❞ ♦✐❧ ♣2✐❝✐♥❣ 6②65❡♠❄
❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♠♣♦25❡❞ ❝2✉❞❡ ❜② ❈❤✐♥❛ ❛♥❞ ■♥❞✐❛✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② &♦❧✐❝② ✸✾✭✽✮✿✹✻✷✹ ✕ ✹✻✸✵✳
▲✐♥✱ ❙✳❳✳ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐6✳ ✷✵✶✵✳ ✏❖R❊❈ ❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡♠❡♥56 ❛♥❞ 5❤❡✐2 ❡✛❡❝56 ♦♥ ❝2✉❞❡ ♦✐❧
♣2✐❝❡6✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② &♦❧✐❝② ✸✽✭✷✮✿✶✵✶✵ ✕ ✶✵✶✻✳
▼✐❛♥✱ ●✳▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❙✳ ❙❛♥❦❛2❛❣✉2✉6✇❛♠②✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏■♥✈❡65♦2 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ❛♥❞ 65♦❝❦ ♠❛2❦❡5
2❡6♣♦♥6❡ 5♦ ❡❛2♥✐♥❣6 ♥❡✇6✳✑ ❆❝❝♦✉♥-✐♥❣ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✽✼✭✹✮✿✶✸✺✼ ✕ ✶✸✽✹✳
▼✐5❝❤❡❧❧✱ ❏✳✱ ❘✳❏✳ ❙♠✐5❤✱ ▼✳❘✳ ❲❡❛❧❡✱ ❙✳ ❲2✐❣❤5 ❛♥❞ ❊✳▲✳ ❙❛❧❛③❛2✳ ✷✵✵✺✳ ✏❆♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛5♦2
♦❢ ♠♦♥5❤❧② ●❉R ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❡❛2❧② ❡65✐♠❛5❡ ♦❢ \✉❛25❡2❧② ●❉R ❣2♦✇5❤✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝
❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ✶✶✺✭✺✵✶✮✿❋✶✵✽✕❋✶✷✾✳
❖✬❈♦♥♥❡❧❧✱ R✳●✳❏✳ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ❚❡♦✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏■♥65✐5✉5✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡65♦26✱ ♣❛65 ♣❡2❢♦2♠❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥❞
❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ❧♦66 ❛✈❡26✐♦♥✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ◗✉❛♥-✐-❛-✐✈❡ ❆♥❛❧②:✐: ✹✹✿✶✺✺✕✶✽✽✳
❘❡❜♦2❡❞♦✱ ❏✳❈✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏▼♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♦✐❧ ♣2✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ 2❛5❡ ❝♦✲♠♦✈❡♠❡♥56✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧
♦❢ &♦❧✐❝② ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ✸✹✭✸✮✿✹✶✾ ✕ ✹✹✵✳
❘♦♠❛♥♦✱ ❏✳R✳✱ ❆✳▼✳ ❙❤❛✐❦❤ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ❲♦❧❢✳ ✷✵✶✵✳ ✏❍②♣♦5❤❡6✐6 5❡65✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡52✐❝6✳✑
❆♥♥✉❛❧ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝: ✷✭✶✮✿✼✺✕✶✵✹✳
❙❝❤❡✐♥❦♠❛♥✱ ❏✳❆✳ ❛♥❞ ❲✳ ❳✐♦♥❣✳ ✷✵✵✸✳ ✏❖✈❡2❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ 6♣❡❝✉❧❛5✐✈❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡6✳✑
❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ &♦❧✐-✐❝❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠② ✶✶✶✭✻✮✿✶✶✽✸ ✕ ✶✷✷✵✳
❙❝❤♠❡❧✐♥❣✱ ▼✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏■♥✈❡65♦2 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ❛♥❞ 65♦❝❦ 2❡5✉2♥6✿ ❙♦♠❡ ✐♥5❡2♥❛5✐♦♥❛❧ ❡✈✐✲
❞❡♥❝❡✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♠♣✐#✐❝❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✻✭✸✮✿✸✾✹✕✹✵✽✳
❙✐♠♦♥✱ ❉✳R✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳❆✳ ❲✐❣❣✐♥6 ■■■✳ ✷✵✵✶✳ ✏❙✫R ❢✉5✉2❡6 2❡5✉2♥6 ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥52❛2② 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5
✐♥❞✐❝❛5♦26✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✉-✉#❡: ▼❛#❦❡-: ✷✶✭✺✮✿✹✹✼✕✹✻✷✳
❲❛♥❣✱ ❈✳ ✷✵✵✶✳ ✏■♥✈❡65♦2 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ❛♥❞ 2❡5✉2♥ ♣2❡❞✐❝5❛❜✐❧✐5② ✐♥ ❛❣2✐❝✉❧5✉2❛❧ ❢✉5✉2❡6
♠❛2❦❡56✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✉-✉#❡: ▼❛#❦❡-: ✷✶✭✶✵✮✿✾✷✾✕✾✺✷✳
❲❤❛❧❡②✱ ❘✳ ❊✳ ✷✵✵✵✳ ✏❚❤❡ ✐♥✈❡65♦2 ❢❡❛2 ❣❛✉❣❡✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ &♦#-❢♦❧✐♦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥-
✷✻✭✸✮✿✶✷ ✕ ✶✼✳
❲❤❛❧❡②✱ ❘✳ ❊✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏❯♥❞❡265❛♥❞✐♥❣ 5❤❡ ❱■❳✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ &♦#-❢♦❧✐♦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥-
✸✺✭✸✮✿✾✽ ✕ ✶✵✺✳
❩❤❛♥❣✱ ❇✳ ❛♥❞ ❳ ▲✐✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✏❘❡❝❡♥5 ❤✐❦❡6 ✐♥ ♦✐❧✲❡\✉✐5② ♠❛2❦❡5 ❝♦22❡❧❛5✐♦♥6✿ ❚2❛♥6✐5♦2②
♦2 ♣❡2♠❛♥❡♥5❄✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝: ♣✳ ✐♥ ♣2❡66✳
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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
Highlights
• WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices from Jan 2002 to Dec 2013 are examined.
• A sentiment index is constructed following Baker and Wurgler (2006).
• Sentiment is found to influence WTI and Brent crude oil prices.
• Results are statistically robust using multiple hypothesis testing.