100g overview and outlook - vde...
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100G Overview and
Outlook
Driving business value through collaborative intelligence
Dana Cooperson, VP Network Infrastructure
20 September 2009
ECOC Workshop 5
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Agenda
� Where are we?
� Lessons from 40G and 10G
� Outlook
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If I had a € for every time a service provider said…
“I’d deploy 100G
today if I had it.”
…I’d be richer, if no less skeptical.
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What will drive deployment pace?
� Availability
� Economics
� Alternatives; e.g., light a 10G λ or do a network overbuild� Timeframe and scope of business case calculation vs. capex available
� Investment and Innovation, for an end-to-end solution
� Standards, e.g. for client and line optics� Merchant and captive chips, modules/MSAs
� Outlook
� Traffic growth, revenue growth, macroeconomic indicators, …
� Ugliness (size, power) vs. the desire for Ubiquity (operationalizing)
� (sometimes) You just gotta do it
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100G timeline: From “heroes to hype”…
� Verizon tested Alcatel-Lucent 100G with live traffic (504km) network Tampa – Miami, FL
� Ciena demo’d 100G OTN at SC08
� AT&T and NEC demo’d 61 wavelengths @ 114Gbps each
� Verizon tested NSN100G over 1040kmdistance
� Comcast tested Nortel100G prototype –300km span of livenetwork
� VZ tested Nortel 100G on high PMD fiber
� OpVista demo’d 100G using proprietary DMC technology
� Huawei announced 100G prototype
� Ciena and NYSE Euronextannounced 2010 deployment of 100G
� Neos Networks tested Nortel100G in live network trial
� Banverket ICT completed live trial of Nortel 100G
� DT and Ericsson completed 100G field trial
� Juniper announced 100GE interface for T1600 router
� Alcatel-Lucent announced 100G interfaces for 7750 SR, 7450 ES, and 1625 LamdaXtreme
� Qwest announced 2010 deployment of ALU 100G network
� Adva demo’d DPSK-3ASK 100G modulation format
� IEEE 100GE standard approval in June 2010
� NYSE Euronextdeployment
� Qwest network-wide deployment
2007
R&D 2008
Demos2009
Trials & first products 2010
Standards,
Early adopters
…with lots of “heavy lifting” along the way
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40G: Moving to general deployment,
resilient to global recession
2008 market: 5009 ports
Cisco20%
Other2%
Ericsson7%
ALU7%
NSN35%
Fujitsu4%
Huawei9%
Nortel16%
Source: OvumIncludes transport ports and some router ports, short and long reach. “Other” vendors include ECI, FiberHome, NEC, Tellabs, Vello (Opvista), Xtera, and ZTE.Juniper is not included, but has shipped 40G
3Q08-2Q09: 7305 ports
Cisco14%
Other8%
Ericsson4%
ALU5%
NSN29%
Fujitsu4%
Huawei17%
Nortel19%
NSN continues to lead in ports deployed;Huawei coming on strong
NSN continues to lead in ports deployed;Huawei coming on strong
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Year7
Year8
Year9
Year10
Year11
Year12
Year13
Year14
Year15
Year16
Year17
Year18
AS
P R
atio
s (x
)10G / 2.5G ASP Ratio 40G / 10G ASP Ratio
The bottom line comparison: Transponder ASP ratios
� Red zone: Heroes, hype, haggling, and headway
� Yellow zone: Economics move in favor of higher-capacity signal
� Green means go: Volume parity is likely to happen.
� Too early to graph 100G curve, but highly likely to improve on 40G’s timeline
� WDM transponders will benefit from datacom’s use of 40GE/100GE
Telecom bust
10G price
decline>>40G
You are here
10G/2.5 unit parity
Year 1
1996: 10G/2.5G
2006: 40G/10G
Source: OvumASP = Average Sales Price
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Global 40/100G volume forecast
40/100G line card volume
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Un
its
40G backbone 40G metro 100GSource: OvumNotes: Figure on left is strictly ON systems transponders, does not included router SR or transponder sales.
Figure on right is Ethernet transceivers for datacom (aka short reach) applications.MSA is multi-source agreement; IA is implementation agreement
DWDM WAN transponder cards:CAGR (2008-2014) = 72%
Volume will be critical to lower price; standards, MSAs, IAs will all helpWAN prices/volumes should benefit from IEEE/ITU spec coordination
Ethernet transceivers:CAGR (2009-2014) = 240%
Datacom 40GE & 100GE Forecast
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014U
nits
40GE 100GE
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100G outlook and 10G/40G lessons learned
� Overall market health (or lack of health) can drastically affect the pace of innovation and deployments
� Venture capital firms’ telecoms investment trend is worrying
� More technology options aren’t necessarily better
� First to market doesn’t guarantee market leadership, volume does
� Components can and will be critical path
� Operationalizing a technology can take years
� Product flexibility is critical, e.g. mixing waves in a shelf, in a span
� 100G interest is clear, but deployments will depend— a lot—on comparative port ASPs
� Datacom is the volume market for 100GE and 40GE through 2014
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THANK YOU
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