100% renewable ireland - the institute of international ... · dubli: an anal n ysis of the energy...

100% Renewable IrelandThe long and short term changes required to eliminate fossil fuels

David Connolly

Associate Professor in Energy Planning

Aalborg University

Denmark

The Institute of International and European Affairs

23rd March 2016

Ireland’s Energy System Today

HeatingBoilers

Fuel Storage

MobilityPower

Exchange

Electricity

Electricity

Storage

CoolingFossil Fuels Power Plants

Resources Conversion

Combustion Engines

Exchange andStorage

Demand

23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 2

Ireland’s Recent Changes

Fuel Storage

MobilityPower

Exchange

Electricity

Electricity

Storage

Cooling

Heating

Fossil Fuels Power Plants


Combustion Engines

Exchange andStorage

Demand

Fluctuating Electricity

Wind etc.

Boilers


Changes: Resources & Storage

Fuel Storage

MobilityPower

Exchange

Electricity

Electricity

Storage

Cooling

Heating

Stored Energy

Fossil FuelsPower Plants)


Combustion Engines

Exchange andStorage

Demand


Wind etc.

Boilers


Wind Power is Cheap!30% Capacity Factor Wind vs. ~8300 Hours/Year for Power Plants

20

10

0

30

40

80

70

60

50

Onshore Wind 400-700 MW CoalSteam PP

100-400 MW CCGT

Leve

lised

Co

st o

fEl

ectr

icit

yP

rod

uct

ion

(€

/MW

h)

O&M

Investment

Fuel



Conclusion 1:Wind power is cheap… if we can integrate it


Where is the new & cheapenergy storage?

Energy Storage

• Electricity

• Thermal

• Gas

• Oil

Decreasing Unit Cost (€/kWh)


Storage Cost and Resource Comparison

Electricity = €170/kWhX ~100

Thermal = €0.5-3/kWh

X ~100

Gas = €0.05/kWh

Oil = €0.02/kWh


Storage Cost and Resource Comparison

Thermal Storage~65 GWh?

Electricity = €170/kWhX ~100

Thermal = €0.5-3/kWh

X ~100

Gas = €0.05/kWh

Oil = €0.02/kWh


Danish Oil Storage ~50 TWh

Annual Danish Electricity Demand ~35 TWh

Danish Gas

Storage~11 TWh


Conclusion 2:We need to maximise fuel and thermal storage

Smart Energy System

• www.SmartEnergySystem.eu

• www.EnergyPLAN.eu

Books

Videos


Journals

Website/Software

http://www.smartenergysystem.eu/

http://www.energyplan.eu/

Smart Energy System

Mobility (Vehicles)

Flexible Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Fuels1. CHP

(or Quad)

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Exchange andStorage

Demand

Heat Pump

Fluctuating Heat


Electricity

Storage

Thermal

Storage

2. Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electrofuel

Combustion Engines

EVs


Green Plan Irelandhttp://dconnolly.net/greenplanireland/

• Ensures move towards the final goal… and not the corner flag!

• Quantify the impact of various steps:• Energy

• CO2

• Costs


http://dconnolly.net/greenplanireland/


Key Supply Technologies in Green Plan Ireland

1. Flexible power stations (gas plants)

2. District Heating in Urban Areas

3. Heat Pumps in Rural Areas

4. Smart Grids

5. Electric Vehicles

6. Electrofuels: Methanol/DME (Power-to-fuel)

7. Electrofuels: Methane (Power-to-gas)

Primary Energy Supply:Intermittent Renewables (IRES) Increase From 5% to 65%

200180160140120100

80604020

0Pri

mar

y En

ergy

Su

pp

ly (

TWh

)

Potential Stage of a Transition to 100% Renewable Energy

IRES

Biomass

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



Conclusion 3:100% Renewable Energy is Technically Possible

Approximately the same costs,but move from “fuel-dependent” to “investment-dependent” => More Jobs!

0

5,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

An

nu

al C

ost

sB

ased

on

20

50

Pri

ces

(M€

)

Stage of Transition to 100% Renewable Energy

CO2

Fuel

O&M

Investments



Conclusion 4:100% Renewable Energy has similar costs to a‘Business-As-Usual’ Fossil Fuel energy system

But,Renewable energy will also create more Irish jobs

Proven Technologies for the Long-Term

2. District Heating in Urban Areas 3. Heat Pumps in Rural Areas


2. District Heating & 3. Heat Pumps

Mobility (Vehicles)

Flexible Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Fuels1. CHP

(or Quad)

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Exchange andStorage

Demand

Heat Pump

Fluctuating Heat


Electricity

Storage

Thermal

Storage

2. Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electrofuel

Combustion Engines

EVs


Sweden’s Heating MixSource: S. Frederiksen, S. Werner, District heating

and cooling, Studentlitteratur, Lund, 2013.


• Three HRE Studies Complete:

• Study 1 (2012): will district heating play a role in thedecarbonisation of the European energy system?

• Study 2 (2013): what is the balance between heat savings and heat supply at an EU level?

• Study 3 (2015, STRATEGO WP2): what is the balance betweenheat savings and heat supply for 5 member states?

• Another on the way (2016-2019):• Heating and cooling strategies for 14 countries

www.heatroadmap.eu

29 February 2016 Brussels, Belgium 24

http://www.heatroadmap.eu/


The Potential for District Heatingin Ireland

Pan-EU Thermal

Atlas(Peta)


Ireland = 30-40% of

HeatCurrently

Feasible for DH


Dublin Heat Demandwww.heatroadmap.eu



Dublin District Heating Potential (From Codema)>150 TJ/km2 = DH, which is 75% of Dublin City Heat Demand

23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 28Source: Gartland, D. Dublin City Spatial Energy Demand Analysis: An analysis of the energy demand of Dublin city, resulting in a range of evidence-based energy demand maps for effective planning. Codema, 2015. Available from: http://www.codema.ie/.

http://www.codema.ie/

Supplying the District Heating Network

• Dublin City Heat Demand:• ~4 TWh

• Max potential excess heat frompower stations in Dublin Bay (ifin CHP mode):• ~5 TWh

• => Excess Heat Could Supply ALL of Dublin City’s Heat Demands


1. Work informed the EU Commission during the creation of the first ever EU heating and cooling

strategy

2.Includes balance between energy efficiency on the demand and supply

side of the heat sector

3. District Heating is a key part of it


Conclusions

1. Wind power is cheap… if we can integrate it

2. We need to maximise fuel and thermal storage

3. 100% Renewable Energy is Technically Possible

4. 100% Renewable Energy has similar costs to a ‘Business-As-Usual’ Fossil Fuel energy system, but Renewable energy will also create more Irish jobs

5. District heating is a proven technology, which can capture excess heat in Ireland and use it to replace natural gas for heating our cities

6. District heating is a proven technology, which can connect wind power to cheap thermal storage

7. The European Commission has already initiated this transition… will Ireland lead (like the UK) or follow?

Questions?

[email protected]

@davconnolly

www.dconnolly.net

www.EnergyPLAN.eu

www.heatroadmap.eu

www.smartenergysystem.eu

Colleagues Here Today


Mads Nerup Nielsen

Sune Schøning

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.dconnolly.net/

http://www.dconnolly.net/




100% renewable ireland - the institute of international ... · dubli: an anal n ysis of the energy...

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