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100% renewable electricity A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Pathways to 2050, Dublin Ireland November 5, 2010 Gus Schellekens - PwC

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November 2010 Slide 2 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Agenda Introduction 1 Roadmap - The 2010 / 2050 Transition 2 3 Conclusions and next steps

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November 2010 Slide 3 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa What is the EU-NA context and opportunity? Introduction An opportunity to achieve 100% renewable electricity for Europe and North Africa 1 Increasing Energy Demand Ageing Energy Infrastructure Climate Change 2 o target Energy Supply Security Good EU- wide policy cohesion and alignment Good natural resources

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November 2010 Slide 4 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa What is the EU-NA context and opportunity? Introduction 1 How do we get there?

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November 2010 Slide 5 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa 2010 / 2050: Todays starting point, tomorrows vision 2010 Demand challenges Power grid / power mix Imports / security of supply Emerging EU energy policy Power market structure REN electricity costs Fossil fuel subsidies 2050 Regional power system Decarbonised electricity generation Unified European power market united with NA Most suitable sites / technologies Affordable electricity / no energy poverty Development of a Green market Introduction 1

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November 2010 Slide 6 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa A simplified market model Government Policy Investment & Finance Infrastructure & Planning h Market Structure Supply Chains Generation Capacity Grid Capacity Demand Enabling Areas Delivery Areas Introduction 1 R&D

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November 2010 Slide 7 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Inputs and outputs Harnessing Renewables Combining regional demand curves reduces volatility Combining wind generation profiles across regions reduces total volatility Solar PV and wind are beneficially negatively correlated across seasons Use DSM to absorb production peaks and lower demand Combine the concept of a Super Grid with a Smart Grid Introduction 1 Enabling Areas Government Policy: Clear and stable policies that create confidence for REN investors and support decommissioning of existing assets Market Structure: Regional market with pricing mechanisms that facilitate new dispatchable REN capacity Investment and Finance: National and regional support schemes and a business case for large scale REN Infrastructure and Planning: long-term and simplified grid planning and permission processes

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November 2010 Slide 8 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa A roadmap to 2050 Introduction 1 Key observations: Most enabling areas need to be completed before 2020. Predictability and political leadership is required Key findings: 1.It is possible to create a 100% REN power system in EU and NA by only using processes that have already started. This is not a radical proposal, but neither is it trivial. 2.The grid is the key enabler & most grid issues must be completed before 2020. 3.No technology breakthrough is needed. We need to start now...

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November 2010 Slide 9 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Agenda Introduction 1 Roadmap - The 2010 / 2050 Transition 2 Conclusions and next steps 3

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November 2010 Slide 10 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Key Findings Enabling Area 1 Government Policy The 2010 / 2050 Transition and Roadmap 2 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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November 2010 Slide 11 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Key Findings Enabling Area 2 Market Structure The 2010 / 2050 Transition and Roadmap 2 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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November 2010 Slide 12 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Key Findings Enabling Area 3 Finance & Investment The 2010 / 2050 Transition and Roadmap 2 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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November 2010 Slide 13 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Key Findings Enabling Area 4 Infrastructure The 2010 / 2050 Transition and Roadmap 2 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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November 2010 Slide 14 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa Agenda Introduction 1 The 2010 / 2050 Transition and Roadmap 2 Conclusions and next steps 3

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November 2010 Slide 15 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa How do we make the most of the context and opportunity? Conclusions and next steps 3 Ageing infrastructure Security of supply Climate change Change in the make- up and structure of the power sector Good EU-wide policy cohesion and alignment Need to stay within a 2 o C temperature increase Roadmap

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November 2010 Slide 16 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa The opportunity exists to achieve 100% renewable electricity for Europe and North Africa (and other locations around the world) Conclusions and next steps 3 Eliminate energy poverty Develop new business models Electricity price predictability and stability Encourage energy cooperation with developing countries and regions Competitiveness on global markets Manage the transition Reduce import dependency and develop interdependency across the regions

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November 2010 Gus SchellekensCo-Authors PricewaterhouseCoopers Sustainability and Climate Change gus.schellekens@uk.pwc.com +44 7711 828 845 Antonella Battaglini PIK Anthony Patt IIASA Johan Lilliestam PIK Jo McDonnell PwC Thank you The full report is available at: http://www.pwc.co.uk/sustainability This presentation has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this presentation without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. 'PricewaterhouseCoopers' refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a limited liability partnership in the United Kingdom) or, as the context requires, the PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.