10 th january 2006 2006 年 1 月 10 日 climate change mitigation keith tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) m.a.,...

10th January 2006 2006年 1月 10日

Climate Change Mitigation

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvHSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director of CRed ProjectCRed

• The facts about Global Warming• Energy Security Issues• Hard Choices Ahead• Carbon Reduction• Good Practice Examples from UEA

– Elizabeth Fry– ZICER– CHP– Adsorption Chilling

• Conclusions


The facts about Global Warming

Future Global Warming RatesConcentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(pp

m)

Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001

19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html



• Conclusions


Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect

this

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Difficult Choices Ahead

Nuclear Generating Capacity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Ins

talle

d C

ap

ac

ity

(M

W)

Projection

Actual

Wholesale Price of Electricity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 13 25

(p p

er k

Wh)

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003 2004 2005

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed on house in Norwich

27th January 2004

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08/02/04 22/02/04 07/03/04 21/03/04 04/04/04 18/04/04 02/05/04 16/05/04 30/05/04

Ne

t S

ola

r G

ain

(k

Wh

rs/d

ay)

No automatic data - data averaged

No automatic data - data averaged

Solar Thermal Performance - detached house in Norwich

From 27th Jan - 15th Sept 2004 average gain 3.16 kWh per day

Will save about 0.25 tonnes per year

Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint

Micro Wind

Micro CHP

Heat Pumps



• Conclusions


Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route

and all the attendant Security issues that raises.



• Conclusions


Government Response

• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050

• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in

local communities to ensure on track by 2020s

• (– but no indication of how this will be

undertaken)

“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’

- Energy White Paper: February 2003

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million in Norfolk

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness

• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

Involve the local Community

Target Day

Results of the “Big Switch-Off”

With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possibleHow can these be translated into long term savings?

Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich

• Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.

• Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh

• North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh

• Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh

• Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh

• A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 66% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 22% of total demand)

• Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year.

• The alternative:

• Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again

• Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

Historic and Future Demand for Electricity

Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

Electricity Options for the FutureLow Growth Scenario

Capped at 420 TWh• 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990

• 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990

• 68 % increase in gas consumption

( Gas Scenario) cf 2002• Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025• Mix option: 11% increase in gas

consumption (cf 2002)

High Growth Scenario

Business as Usual• 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990

• 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990

• 257% increase in gas consumption

( Gas Scenario) cf 2002

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mto

nn

es C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

25% Renewables by 2025

• 20000 MW Wind

• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.



• Conclusions


Main Energy Conservation Projects at UEA

• Constable Terrace/ Nelson Court Student Residences

• Elizabeth Fry Building

• Combined Heat and Power

• School of Medicine

• ZICER Building

The Future

• Absorption Chilling

The Elizabeth Fry Building

Heater

Diffuser

Supply duct to

hollow core slabs

Two channel regenerative heat exchanger Floor Slabs

Incoming

Air

Exhaust Air

Filter

Exhaust Airfrom rooms

Principle of TermoDeck Operation

• Air is circulated through whole fabric of building • Uses regenerative Heat Exchangers ~ 85% efficient

Quadruple Glazing

Thick Insulation

Air circulates through whole fabric of building

Principle of Operation

Mean Surface Temperature close to Air Temperature

• Heated using a single domestic heating boiler (24 kW)

• No heating needed at temperatures as cool as 8 - 9oC

• Triple glazing with Low E Glass ~ quadruple glazing

• 87% of ventilation heat recovered via regenerative Heat Exchangers.

Elizabeth Fry Building – Key Facts

• 180 mm insulation on walls

• 300 mm roof insulation

• 100 mm floor insulation

• Air – Pressure Test at 50 Pa – not to exceed 1.0 ach

Actual performance 0.97 ach

Has deteriorated slightly since 1996

Performance of Elizabeth Fry BuildingCareful Monitoring and Analysis can reduce energy consumption

Performance of Elizabeth Fry Building

thermal comfort +28%User Satisfaction

noise +26%

lighting +25%

air quality +36%

A Low Energy Building is also a better place to work in

Actual Low Energy

Normal

kg CO2/ m2 / yr

5.8 34 41

Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Space and Water Heating

• “Termodeck” construction

Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental Research

The ZICER Building

• 34 kW Photo Voltaic Array

ZICER Construction

Ducts in floor slab

Performance of ZICER Building

• Initially performance was poor• Performance improved with new Management Strategy

20052004 EFry

ZICER

Temperature of air and fabric in building varies little even on a day in summer (June 21st – 22nd 2005)

Performance of ZICER Building

EngineGenerator

36% Electricity

GAS

61% Flue Losses

3% Radiation Losses 36%

efficient

Generation of Electricity with a Gas Engine

EngineGenerator

36% Electricity45% Heat

GAS

Engine heat Exchanger

Exhaust Heat

Exchanger

11% Flue Losses

3% Radiation Losses 81%

efficient

Combined Heat and Power at UEA

Localised generation can make use of waste heat.

Reduces conversion losses significantly

1997/98 electricity gas oil Total

MWh 19895 35148 33

Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

Electricity Heat

1999/

2000

Total site

CHP generation

export import boilers CHP oil total

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission

factorkg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide

Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

Performance of CHP unitsBefore installation

After installation

This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA

Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively

More electricity could be generated in summer

Condenser

Evaporator

Throttle Valve

Heat rejected

Heat extracted for cooling

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

Heat from external source

Absorber

Desorber

Heat Exchanger

W ~ 0

Normal Air-conditioning

• Adsorption Heat pump uses Waste Heat from CHP• Will provide most of chilling requirements in summer• Will reduce electricity demand in summer• Will increase electricity generated locally

Compressor

Adsorption Air-Conditioning

Legislation can help and hinder effective use of energy

The method by which electricity is traded in the UK ( The BETTA System) has adversely affected viability of CHP in the UK.

The European Union Emission Trading System has anomalies which hinder effective developments such as Adsorption Chilling.

Building Regulations can hinder the building of most energy efficient buildings

Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index with Building Regulations

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Carbon Index

kg

CO

2/m

2 /yr

1976

19901985

2002

1994

Elizabeth FryZICER

Theorectical Perfection in 2002 Regulations

pre-war

1955

1965

Variation of Carbon Emission and Carbon Index problems with current Building Regulations

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

7 8 9 10

Carbon Indexk

g C

O2/

m2 /y

r 2002

Elizabeth FryZICER

Theorectical Perfection in 2002 Regulations

Performance of Elizabeth Fry and ZICER

and Building Regulations



• Conclusions


Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

• Otherwise Nuclear???

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

10 th january 2006 2006 年 1 月 10 日 climate change mitigation keith tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) m.a.,...

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