10 july 2015 kenpei kojika jica project team · 10 july 2015 kenpei kojika jica project team 1...
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10 July 2015
Kenpei Kojika
JICA Project Team
1
Background
Project Organization
Main Components and Schedule
Plan of Operation
Outcome of the Project
2
Background
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Seismic Gap Kathmandu2015 Gorkha EQ
Seismic Gap Kathmandu
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Urban Sprawl, Urbanization
2002 JICA: The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal
Possibility of Big Earthquake
Still Possibility of Big Earthquake
Source: J. P. Avouac, Treatise on Geophysics, vol. 6, pp. 377‐439
Source: J. P. Avouac, Treatise on Geophysics, vol. 6, pp. 377‐439
Project Organization
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Counterpart:Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD)Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA)Ministry of Federal Affairs and Local Development (MoFALD)
Pilot Municipalities:Lalitpur Sub‐metropolitan City – Urban areaBaktapur Municipality – Historical area
Budhanilakantha Municipality – Less urban area
Joint Coordinating CommitteeJoint Coordinating Committee
WG 2Risk
Assessment
WG 2Risk
Assessment
WG 3Pilot
Activities
WG 3Pilot
Activities
WG 1Geological, Seismic
WG 1Geological, Seismic
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PROJECT TEAMPROJECT TEAM
Main Components and Schedule
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7. Seismic Hazard Analysis
10. Disaster Management Plan
8. Seismic Risk Assessment
6. BBB Reconstruction Plan for Pilot Municipalities
5. Soil Investigation
3. Emergency Response Chronicle Survey
2. Safe Kathmandu Campaign
1. Construction of Model House
4.1 Building Damage Survey
9. Standard Operation Procedures
Scenario EQ
4.2 Building Inventory Survey
Construction of Model House (June 2015‐August 2015)
(1)
For public awareness on improving seismic performance of residential buildings. The model houses for RC and stone masonry are built in the Pulchowk campus of TribhuvanUniv. More than 800 persons visited the model house in 24 & 25, June during ICNR.
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Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign (July 2015‐August 2015)
(2)
On site socialization campaign for delivering proper knowledge on earthquake and safety buildings (for citizens)
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Emergency Response Chronicle Survey (August 2015‐October 2015)
(3)
In order to have the information on emergency response activities of all stakeholders, emergency response chronicle survey will be carried out
Building Damage and Inventory Survey (June 2015‐December 2015)
(4)
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Building damage and inventory survey will be conducted to 1) revise building fragility curve and 2) develop database of buildings for BBB reconstruction plan and seismic risk assessment.
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Damage Survey (Bhaktapur)
Structure Type
Damage Degree
No Slight Moderate Substantial Heavy Collapse Total
Brick with cement mortar 3 2 1 1 0 7
Brick with mud mortar 11 16 6 6 12 51
Brick and adobe mixed with mud mortar 1 1 1 21 24
RC frame 12 2 0 0 0 0 14
Total 12 16 20 8 8 33 96
Soil Investigation(June 2015‐December 2015)
(5)
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In order to have more detail soil condition for risk sensitive land use and updating soil model used in 2002, the existed geotechnical information will be used and soil investigation by micro‐tremor will be conducted.
Source: The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal, JICA, 2002
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BBB Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Plan (June 2015‐April 2016)
(6)
Explain Later
Basic Policy
Action ContentsResponsible Org
Costestimation
Implementation Schedule
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
XXX A
B
C
Life Economy
Safety Description Description and Image
Implementation PlanImplementation Plan
Formulation of Conceptual Plan
Formulation of Vision
Formulation of Implementation
plan
BBB Recovery and reconstruction plan will be formulated for 3 pilot municipalities:Lalitpur Sub‐Metropolitan City, Bhaktapur Municipality and Budhanilkantha Municipality
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・Basic principle, Grand Design・Outline of Action・Overall Zoning(Land Use, Restriction for Building construction)
Formulation of Conceptual Plan
Risk Assessment
Seismic Hazard
・Vision, Scope area, Goal, Period
・Detail Contents of Each Action, Cost Estimation
Disaster Management Plan
Reconstruction Master Plan for Pilot municipalities
National Reconstruction Plan
National Level
KV(District)Reconstruction Plan
KV(District) Level
Municipal Level
PDNA
Needs Assessment
NationalDevelopment Plan
Resilient Urban Planning
(Direction of future)
KV(District)Development Plan
Detail Damage Situation
Identification of issues
Soil Investigation
Formulation of Vision
Implementation
p
Formulation of Implementation
plan
Implementation policy of Reconstruction Plan
Seismic Hazard Analysis(June 2015‐June 2016)
(7)
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• Determination of scenario earthquake : August 2015
• Preliminary hazard analysis: August 2015 and January 2016
• Hazard analysis (intensity, liquefaction, and landslide): June 2016
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Components of Seismic Hazard Analysis
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Procedure and Results of Hazard Analysis
Source: The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal, JICA, 2002
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Seismic Risk Assessment(January 2016‐Feb. 2017)
(8)
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Procedure and Results of Risk Assessment
Source: The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal, JICA, 2002
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) (Dec. 2016‐April 2017)
(9)
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Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) for pilot Municipalities will be formulated based on the emergency response chronicle survey results.
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Disaster Management Plan(Dec. 2016 – Dec. 2017)
(10)
Disaster management plan to build resilient municipality will be formulated in 3 pilot municipality, followed by the formulation of a guideline.
Plan of Operation
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POI: Major Activities
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2
4
6
7
8
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10
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12
13
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Soi l survey and updating soi l model of 2002
Micro zonation
Capacity development
Tra ining in Japan focus on BBB (No. 1)
Data col lection for seismic ri sk assessment
Seminar of related organizations on disaster risk management plan
(No. 3)
Seminar of related organizations on project contents (No. 1)
Urgent res i l ient and safe Kathmandu campaign
Emergency response chronicle survey
Recovery and reconstruction master plan for pi lot municipa l i ties
Veri fication of 2002 project results
Col lection and analys i s of exis ting data
Bui lding damage and bui lding inventory survey
Seminar of related organizations on BBB M/P (No. 2)
Seismic hazard analys i s
Seismic risk assessment
Tra ining in Japan focus on disaster management plan (No. 2)
Tra ining in Japan focus on community based DRR (No. 3)
Development of disaster management plan guidel ine for
municipal i ty
Development of standard operation procedures (SOP) for emergency
response
Development of disaster management plan for pi lot municipal i ty
Approva l of inception report
Time Schedule
Activities
2015 2016 2017 2018
JCC
WG1 (Geological and seismic group)
WG2 (Risk assessment group)
WG3 (Pilot activities group)
Preparation of inception report
Outcome of the Project
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BBB Recovery and Reconstruction Plan for 3 Pilot Municipalities
Seismic Risk Assessment with New Scenario Earthquakes and Updated Soil Model
Disaster Management Plan Guideline
Disaster Management Plan for 3 Pilot Municipalities
Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) for 3 Pilot Municipalities