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Work on collection and dissemination of information on methods and tools to assess impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.

UNFCCC Compendium.

O. Pilifosova MIS,UNFCCC secretariat

Manila 26-30 April, 2004

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Mandate

• Decisions 9/CP.3: – continue work on the synthesis and dissemination of

information, conducive to ... adapting to climate change, particularly to assess different adaptation strategies;

– accelerate the development of these methodologies • SBSTA conclusions:

– endorsed the acceleration and broadening of the work of the secretariat on methods and tolls to assess impacts of and vulnerability and adaptation to Climate change;

– hold workshops and expert meetings– liaise with UN organisations

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Goals

– enhance dissemination of methods and quality of information on them;

– to encourage and assist Parties in applying the best available methods;

– promote improving quality of methodologies;

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Compendium• Initial Compendium on methods and tool to assess

adaptation strategies –1999

• V&A assessment process has developed• New mandate was given by the SBSTA• TAR was issued • 17/CP.8 made a reference to the Compendium

• Reinvigorated Compendium of methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change –2003 http://unfccc.int/program/mis/meth/index.html

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What methods and tools?• A number of approaches: framework for entire

process of V&A assessment• Numerous methods/tools for each stage/step of

assessment Methods: used to assess specific issues under an approach e.g. CC scenarios, cost analysis, risk assessment, stakeholder approaches etc.

• Tools: expert judgement; models; risk assessment tools; etc.

• Sources: UNEP HB, USCP, UN projects, AID programmes, academic institutions, NGOs, etc.

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Updated compendium: tasks

•Capture major developments in the process of V&A assessment: two main approaches

•Be consistent with the User Manual and NAI guidelines

•Include “Most wanted” methods identified by Parties

•Cover at least 5 sectors •Include additional/new sources of info: UN projects

(UNEP/AIACC, UNDP/APF), FAO, WHO, UK, German, Netherlands DA, etc.

•Be straightforward to users and prescriptively neutral

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IPCC Technical guidelines & UNDP

Define the Scope of the Problem(s) And Assessment Process Choose Scenarios: Socioeconomic Environmental Climate Change Conduct Biophysical and Economic Impact Assessments and Evaluate Adaptive Adjustments

Fisheries Agriculture Forests Grassland/ Water Coastline Health Livestock Resources Wildlife Integrate Impact Results Analyze Adaptation Policies and Programs Document and Present Results

Major developments V&A assessment- two main approaches

ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK (as of February 21, 2003)

1. Scope Project Context and Design Define project objectives in the context of existing

national policies and sustainable development plans Review & synthesize existing information including

impact studies and National Communications Design the APF Project including the project team

2. Assess Current Vulnerability & Adaptation

Assess climate risks and impacts Assess socio-economic conditions Assess adaptation experience (including policies and

measures and adaptive capacity) Assess vulnerability (to both socio-economic conditions

& climate) 3. Characterise Future Climate-related Risks

Characterise climate trends, risks and opportunities Characterise socio-economic trends, risks & opportunities Characterise natural resource and environment trends Characterise barriers and opportunities for enhancing

adaptation

4. Develop Adaptation Strategy Identify and formulate policy options & measures Prioritise policies and measures Formulate adaptation strategy

5. Continue Adaptation Process Incorporate adaptation policies and measures into development

plans Implement APF results & institutionalise follow-ups Review, monitor & evaluate the effectiveness of policies,

measures and projects (impacts of adaptation on policies etc.)

Task (cross-cutting): Increase adaptive capacity

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New developments: 2 approaches Scenario-Based Approach/Top-down Climate Change

Scenario

BiophysicalImpacts

Socio-EconomicImpacts

Adaptationsto Impacts

Residual orNet Impacts

•How dangerous is climate change?What are the key impacts/risks?

•Explored in first National Communications

•Contributed in the SAR and TAR IPCC reports

•Three main frameworks/sources

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CurrentAdaptiveCapacity

CurrentExposure

FutureExposure

ClimateScience

SocialScience

CurrentVulnerability

FutureVulnerability

Vulnerability Approach (Bottom-up)-How to adapt to climate change? -New generation of V&A assessments. Science is emerging( 4AR.)--

FutureAdaptive Capacity

CurrentVulnerability

3 main framework

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Consistency with NG/UM NAI guidelines/User Manual on V&A Methodologies

• Encourage use of “appropriate” methodologies • Report on methods used, including:

– general approaches/frameworks for assessment– climate change and socio-economic scenarios, if

appropriate – different methods and tools for impacts

assessment – evaluation of adaptation options and strategies– policy frameworks for adaptation

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Consistency with NG/UM NAI guidelines/User Manual on V&A reporting

• scope of their V&A assessment, including identification of most critical vulnerable areas

• information on their vulnerability to the impacts: key findings and direct and indirect impacts, allowing for an integrated analysis of the country’s vulnerability to climate change

• information on strategies and measures for adapting to climate change

• report on the use of policy frameworks in adapting to CC

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“most wanted” methodologiesMethodological needs for :

• selecting and testing GCM and downscale outputs

• evaluating, prioritize and cost adaptation options for future CC

• addressing vulnerability to extreme events • developing socio-economic scenarios in

complex circumstances • integrating vulnerability and adaptation issues

into economic and development planning processes

• assessing current vulnerabilities …

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Up-dated Compendium:structure

• Comprehensive Frameworks and Supporting Toolkits (6)

• Cross-Cutting Issues and Multi-Sector Approaches – Application of Scenario Data in Impact and Adaptation Assessment

(12)– Decision Tools (7)– Stakeholder Approaches (5)– Other Multisectoral Tools (6)

• Sector Oriented Tools– Agriculture (21)– Coastal zone (7)– Water (7)– Health (6)– Forest and vegetation (8)

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Structure of the information about methods

Description. Appropriate use. Scope.Key tools.Key outputs. Key inputs. Ease of use. Training required. Training offered.Computer requirements. Documentation. Applications. Contacts for tools, documentation, and technical assistance References.

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Compendium: What it does and does not

• is not a “cookbook” • not a manual describing how to implement

each tool, but a survey

• provides users with key information about available frameworks and tools TO ENABLE THEM TO CHOOSE METHOD/tool

• is not a comprehensive source, but part of an ongoing process and should be considered a living document

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Expert meeting on V&A methods/tools25-26 April, Manila

• Participants:14 experts from 8 countries and 2 UN organizations

• Objectives: – Review the information in the Compendium– Advise on review and improvements/next steps

• Output:– Revised compendium – Reports - on web&input to a bigger report TBD

• Overall assessment of the meeting: extremely useful

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Expert meeting on V&A methods/tools25-26 April, Manila

– Analyzed and assessed structure, scope, methods/tools and information about them

– Agreed that • it is a very rich pile of information, • very helpful for NCs • should to be maintained and periodically reviewed• some changes (“aspirin” and “surgery”) can make it even more

useful for NAI countries – Identified

• some gaps in both info and methods• areas and means for improvement of the structure, scope of the

overall document and information on methods – Proposed

• criteria for inclusion of new methods • new methods for inclusion • options/means for periodical review

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Next steps –short term

• “Aspirin” type improvements, e.g.:– glossary of terms, – clearer division between “methods”, “frameworks”

and “tools”, – updating web links, references– correcting mistakes– adding new methods in 3 sectors +

ASAP

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Next steps –longer term – “Surgery” improvements, e.g.:

• data base, • user-friendly interface, • searching engine • introducing more “evaluative” approach to information on

methods, etc.

– Future reviews/updating:• periodical reviews, and periodic updating through

meetings, conference calls, creating a review network, etc.

Subject Availability of Recourses

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Next steps - next

Side event at SBSTA 20: presentation, experience on applying methods in the Compendium – June

See you there

Thank you.