11

What’s a RISA and why do fish care?

August 28, 2006Boulder, CO

Robert S. WebbPhysical Science DivisionEarth System Research LaboratoryNOAA OAR

22

RISA = Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments

RISA = Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments

Funded by NOAA Climate Program Office (formerly Office of Global Programs )

Created mid 1990s to connect regional decision making with newly available climate information

Enable NOAA to learn about how to create a National Climate Service

Operate at all time scales: past, present, future

Generally ‘climate’, not ‘weather’, centric

At universities with strong climate programs

Interact with NOAA Climate Offices and Laboratories

Interdisciplinary Teams

33

RISA Mission, Tools, TechniquesRISA Mission, Tools, Techniques

Typical Mission: Increase regional resilience to climate variability and change

Tools and Techniques• Sustained stakeholder interaction• Usable applied research• Outreach and Education

– Synthesis Studies– Clearinghouse for Contacts, Information

• Decision Support Tools– Forecasts– Reconstructions and Projections of Climate– Ecosystem Management – Regional Climate Summaries

44

8 NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (“RISA”) Programs8 NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (“RISA”) Programs

http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/

4 Programs in the West

6 of the 8 RISAs deal with climate and coastal issues

‘Building Bridges Between Climate Science and Society’

Regional Focused, All Time Scales

Not normal science! – ‘co-production of knowledge’

RISAs want and need stakeholder involvement

55

CIG: Climate Change, Salmon Recovery

CAP: Snowpack, runoff, CALFED Bay-Delta

WWA: Natural Peal Flow Hydrograph, Colorado EIS

ACCAP: Sea Ice and Marine Ecosystems

SECC: Water quality, Everglades Agricultural Area

CISA: Coastal Climate Extension, sustainability

Pacific: Climate impacts on fisheries coastal resource management, coral reefs, agriculture and tourism

FISHY RISA ProjectsFISHY RISA Projects

66

CIG case study: evolution of climate information for salmon managementCIG case study: evolution of climate information for salmon management

A fishery oceanography study identifies a climate impactclimate impact• Climate variability explains a large fraction of the space-

time variations in 20th Century Pacific salmon catches (and presumably abundance)

CIG (Hare, Mantua, Francis) promote the use of climate information for salmon management by describing the research results at meetings and workshops … yet no managers want to use our results!

• The response from fishery management staff: “Your work is interesting, but it doesn’t suit our needs”

CIG partners with a NOAA fisheries scientist involved in salmon management to develop a forecast tool they can use

• In the process, we learn how to match the space-time scales of climate information with those of salmon management

77

A North-South see-saw in salmon production

A North-South see-saw in salmon production

Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO ???Cool PDO

Sp

rin

g ch

inoo

k r

etu

rns

to t

he

Col

um

bia

Riv

er m

outh

(1

000s

)

Alask

a pin

k an

d sock

eye catch

(million

s)

88

Scale of research vs. scale of decisions

Scale of research vs. scale of decisions

PDO impacts on salmon across the North Pacific: large regional scales, multi-year fluctuations

Annual stock specific management decisions

Research identifies the links between climate and North-South pattern of

salmon production

Annual management

decisions made on a stock by stock (river by river)

basis

99

Forecasting Oregon Coho Salmon Returns using climate observations and SST forecasts

Forecasting Oregon Coho Salmon Returns using climate observations and SST forecasts

Coastal Ocean Conditions

Sea surface temperatures

Sea level

Nearshore winds

Oregon coho

salmon survival

SpringFall Winter Summer

Jack returns

Harvest & allocation

decisions (February) FisheryRun-size forecast

-using obs’d conditionsRun-size forecast (using SST forecast)

Plankton surveys

1010

Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River

Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River

However, Climate Change will make salmon restoration more difficult:

• Decreasing Summer Low Flows

• Increasing Winter Peak Flows

• Increasing water temperatures in critical periods

Decreasing Spawning Flows

Increasing Winter Flows

Habitat restoration can mitigate the negative impacts of Climate Change on salmon habitat

1111

WWA Case study: Critical water problem in the Colorado River

WWA Case study: Critical water problem in the Colorado River

Ecosystems • Federal reserved rights for the

Black Canyon of the Gunnison• Upper Colorado Recovery Implementation

Program for Endangered Fish• Other instream flow requirements

 Salinity/Water quality• Salinity Control Act implementation

and mitigation of water quality problems from agricultural return flows  

Equity• Indian Water Rights, reserved when

reservations were established • Livelihoods and cultures of ranching and farming on the west slope

Competition among uses• Transmountain water diversions• Agriculture vs. urban uses• Recreation and amenity instream uses vs consumptive uses,

including rafting industry, hiking and hunting tourism

1212

Pitl

ick

and

Van

Ste

eter

(19

97)

A climate-sensitive issue is how to provide spring peak flows and late summer minimum in stream flows to support the recovery of of endangered fish.

This changing policy environment is forcing a “release” of past constraints on reservoir management, and a “reorganization” phase that is in progress

Opportunity: Reservoir managers are seeking new tools to help in a more complicated job, and thus open to using climate information; as well as other types of information and tools

Problem and User: Reservoir Management

Colorado Pike Minnow

1313

25

10

15

20

5May June July

threshold for habitatbuilding flows ~12.7 CFS

Flo

w (

cub

ic f

eet

/ sec

on

d)

April AugustNatural Average(pre 1950)

Empounded Average(post 1950)

Single Subthreshold Peak

Double Subthreshold Peaks

Practically No Peak

Habitat Threshold

Spring Peak Flow Scenariosx1

000

x1000

1414

latesummer

Feb. 1early flowforecasts

April 1start of

filltarget

late May tomid June

PeakAugmentation

Period

earlyJuly

fill date

reservoir capacity

Res

ervo

ir H

ydro

grap

h(v

olum

e in

acr

e/fe

et)

spill and flood

miss fillingto capacity

bypassflow

Their Challenge Our Problem Orientation

1515

The NOAA long lead precipitation and temperature forecasts can be incorporated into a Fall forecast of winter snowpack accumulation and with implications for subsequent April-June runoff

An improved understanding of ENSO influences on seasonal evolution of snowpack that can lead to more accurately planned “start of fill” target

By late Spring, the NOAA long lead precipitation and temperature forecasts can be incorporated into summer season forecast irrigation demands

Throughout the Spring -- one to two week precipitation and temperature forecasts can be used to provide improved estimates of of volume and timing of spring peak flows needed to augment peak flows for habitat restoration as well as to enhance flood mitigation operations

Throughout the Summer -- one to two week precipitation and temperature forecasts to improve both hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and low flow mitigation

Entry Points for Climate InformationEntry Points for Climate Information

1616

Decision Calendar Framework Decision Calendar Framework

Hydropower Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

Agriculture Production Decision Calendars

Oct

Planning

data

decisions

tion planning

gmentationreleases

1717

Challenges in Incorporating Climate Science Research in

Decision making

Challenges in Incorporating Climate Science Research in

Decision making

Factor Water Manager’s Perspective Researcher’s Perspective

Identifying critical issue

Time frame

Spatial resolution

Goals

Basis for Decisions

Expectation

Product Characteristics

Frame

Nature of Use Applied(aka Terry Fulp)

Conceptual(aka Marty Hoerling)