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Week 11: Evaluating Emerging Technology Trends

MIS 2101

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E.T.

• Emerging Technologies– New and developing technologies, especially in the Information

Technology fields– Science-based innovations that have the potential to create a

new industry or transform an existing one.

• Examples– Nanotechnology, digital paper, virtual reality

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Agenda

• Introduction to Emerging Technologies

• Examples of Emerging Technologies

• How can businesses handle Emerging Technologies?

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DIGITAL PAPER

• Digital paper (or electronic paper) – any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printing

• The major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over time

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DIGITAL PAPER

• Potential business impact– Paperlike displays will replace

newspapers, magazines, and books

– Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea

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Types of Emerging Technologies• Sustaining Technologies

– Make existing ways of doing things better– Existing products are made better– Less risky to adopt– Limited implications– Favors existing players– Examples

• Black and White versus Color TVs, ERP systems

• Disruptive Technologies– Create new ways of doing things– Existing products are replaced– Riskier to adopt– Far-reaching implications– Favors New Entrants– Examples

• Digital Photography, MP3

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DVD Technology• Sustaining

– For movie studios– DVDs store more information; last longer than CDs

• Disruptive– For tape manufacturers– DVDs use laser technology for reading as compared to magnetic head for tape

• Both– For video rental stores– People rent DVDs; but low cost of DVDs

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Why is E.T. important in business?• Disrupt existing business models and create new ones

– Digital photography– Mp3 players (iPoD)

• Some innovations start as niche and inferior, but gradually improve performance to overtake mainstream market– Notebook hard disks– Linux Operating System– VoIP phone (Vonage, Comcast)

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Are Emerging Technologies always better

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Pitfalls of ET• Sometimes companies adopt them too soon

– Flash, multimedia in web pages– Personalization technologies

• Sometimes companies don’t adopt them at all– E.g. B&N versus Amazon (online ordering)

• Not all emerging technologies catch up– ebooks

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Why are firms afraid of ET

• Dilemma– Spend money on a failed venture– Lose ground to new players

• Cannibalization – New technology can hurt sales of existing products– Kodak – digital versus conventional photography

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Incumbents who have had problems

• Computer Operating Systems

• IBM Microsoft

• Calculators• Monroe Sharp, HP,

others

13 Source – Gartner Group 2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle

Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for New Technologies (2002)

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Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for New Technologies (2006)

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Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for New Technologies (2007)

Source: Gartner (July 2007)

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New vs. Emerging Technologies• The Gartner Hype Cycle

• Generally • Emerging technologies are at the left of the chart • New technologies are at the right or have moved off the chart recently

• Notice Voice over IP (VOIP) has moved from the center to the right between 2002 and 2006

• Wireless LANs have moved off the chart in the same period

• Social Networks has moved from peak to trough from 06 to 07

• Is it easier to evaluate the technologies at the right of the chart

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• Examples of Emerging Technologies

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Bluetooth in East Japan Railway Company Green (First Class) Cars

• The attendant uses a PDA-like device when collecting green car tickets.

• The device uses Bluetooth to send the passenger’s seat and destination to a receiver in the car.

• The car displays a green signal above the seat.

• When the train leaves the paid zone, the signal automatically changes to red.

• The passenger can also pay by touching their SUICA (Super Urban Intelligent) RFID card to a panel in the car. This also turns the signal to green in the paid zone.

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Appliances – Pervasive computing

• Devices containing small computers– Every Device is a Computer!!!

• A car is a terminal– Automobiles that monitor

themselves and report conditions to car service facilities

– Integrated Global Positioning and computing

• Watches, microwaves, phones, refrigerators, stereos

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Platform Independent Computer Programs

• Same application running on– a Cell Phone– a Windows computer

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Immersive Virtual Reality

• Head-referenced viewing• Stereoscopic• Full scale presentation• Detection of head, hand (etc) positioning

through head gear, gloves, etc.• Interaction with virtual object

Text and images extracted from:http:/www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html(Except where noted)

Illusion of full immersion in an artificial world.

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3D and Virtual Reality – additional features

• Images constructed from real and computer generated objects in the same view (Augmented reality)

• Mouse-less pointing devices

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Nanotechnology

• A field of science whose goal is to control individual atoms and molecules to create computer chips and other devices that are thousands of times smaller than current technologies permit.

• . . . new technologies that juggle individual atoms . . .

Source: http://www.webopedia.com/TERM/n/nanotechnology.html

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Nanotechnology and Computers

• Current computer chips created by lithography.• Result of nanotechnology: Very small devices, much

faster computers– Molecules acting as switches– Current status: Storage density 10 times that of current silicon

memory chips

• Applications also include medical devices.

Nanotechnology reference (including a good introduction):http://www.zyvex.com/nano/Good article on current status:http://www.industryweek.com/CurrentArticles/Asp/articles.asp?ArticleId=1425

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Other Examples

• Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)

• Global Positioning Systems (GPS)

• Voice Over IP

• Emergence of network portals (Google)

• Biometrics– Iris scanning– Face recognition– Fingerprint recognition

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And ---• Commercially available 3d scene capture devices

www.3rdtech.com

• 3D volumetric displays www.lightspacetech.com

• 3d printerswww.zcorp.com

• Narrowcasting – focused Internet TVhttp://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/05/technology/05joost.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

• High definition TV projected from cell phoneshttp://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/17395/

• The WiiMotehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii

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And . . .

• Service Integration– Call centers and Internet

• Security will change– New methods of authentication including

biometrics (e.g. iris scanning instead of subway/train tickets)

– Regulatory and privacy issues

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And . . .

• What is missing from the list?• Social networking?• Can you think of potential applications for

the technologies?

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The New and Emerging Technologies Assignment

• Pick a technology from the list in the assignment

• Find and read references on the technology• Prepare a short presentation • Present to the class (10 minutes)

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The Presentation• What is the technology and what does it do? • Business drivers – Why would someone use it and for what?• When will it be ready for use? (Key Risks.)• Technologies it may replace.• Companies or industries which use it (if any) and for what?

Are they successful?• Is it a threat to an existing company or industry? If so what

company or industry?• Your evaluation--- Will it be successful? Why?

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Where to find information on technologies

• The Internet– Google– http://www.webopedia.com

• Gartner Group Research– http://www.temple.edu/gartner

– You must be on campus to use Gartner or (off campus) use your Temple Account and the proxy setting on your browser

– Select the search option in the lower left of the screen to search for articles on a specific topic

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Preparing the Presentation

• Instructions are in the assignment• You decide on the number of slides • Use PowerPoint• Be sure to fully reference any material you use ---

especially quoted material. Be sure you do not plagiarize.

• Avoid large scale cutting and pasting from articles

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Key Learnings• Examples of Emerging Technologies

• Sustaining vs Disruptive Technologies

• Impact of Emerging Technologies on Companies and Industry

• Pitfalls of Emerging Technologies / Dilemmas for Existing Companies

• Gartner Hype Cycle– What does the location of a technology on hype cycle tell us?

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• Questions!!!