1 water resources: what part of natural flow do they represent? vazken andréassian, jean margat,...
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Water Resources:what part of natural flow do they
represent?
Vazken Andréassian, Jean Margat, Guillaume Thirel, Pierre Hubert, Charles Perrin
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What are water resources?
• In modern hydrological newspeak, water flow and water resource are synonyms
• Example : national water resources accounts (FAO’s Aquastat figures…)
• Is this right?
• What part of the hydrological cycle can really be transformed into a resource?
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What can we call water “resources”?
• resource = the part of the water cycle that we can use with profit
• the hydrological literature distinguishes ‘physical’ or ‘theoretical’ water resources from ‘actual’ or ‘usable’ water resources
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What can we call water “resources”?an hydrological perspective
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What can we call water “resources”?a surface hydrologist’s perspective
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What can we call water “resources”?a surface hydrologist’s perspective
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What can we call water “resources”?a surface hydrologist’s perspective
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What can we call water “resources”?a surface hydrologist’s perspective
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There are always less water resources
in a river than there is streamflow flowing between its banks…
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Quantifying the gap between streamflow and “water resources”
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Catchment data set(600 French catchments)
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Working hypothesis: water resources can be defined by the volume lying between an upper and a lower flow
quantile
upper limit : f(catchment
storage capacity))
lower limit : environmental (reserved)
flow
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Distribution of resource ratios on the French rivers dataset
Q50
Q05
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Dependency to catchment area for the French rivers dataset
Q50
Q05
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Dependency to mean specific discharge for the French rivers dataset
Q50
Q05
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Sensitivity of the water resources ratio to the storage capacity
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Storage capacity evolutionupper limit = Q0.50
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Storage capacity evolutionupper limit = Q0.60
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Storage capacity evolutionupper limit = Q0.70
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Storage capacity evolutionupper limit = Q0.80
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Impact on the resource ratio
Q50
Q05
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Impact on the resource ratio
Q60
Q05
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Impact on the resource ratio
Q70
Q05
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Impact on the resource ratio
Q80
Q05
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Impact on the resource ratio
Q90
Q05
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Impact on the resource ratio
Q100
Q05
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Raising the water resources ratio
requires the capacity to harness a rising proportion of total flow, which
implies…
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… storage capacity
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Will climate change impact the water resources ratio?
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Using IPCC’s simulations for 2070-2100
• We used the new simulations prepared for the IPCC fifth assessment report
• Climate models were appropriately downscaled on a subset of 400 catchments
• We can compare :– total flow simulations– resource ratio simulations
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Distribution of resource ratios for the present climate
Q50
Q05
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Distribution of resource ratios for the future climate
Q50
Q05
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Comparison of the resource ratiosfuture climate vs present climate
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Comparison of the resource volumesfuture climate vs present climate
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Conclusion (1)
• Producing resource figure from flow figures is far from straightforward
• We have only looked at water resources from the flow variability perspective. Other very important aspects would include:
• Transboundary rivers and aquifers issues– imply a reduction on exploitable water resources
• use-dependent relationships– each type of water use has its own stremflow-resource
relationship– (in-stream uses vs withdrawals, etc.)
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Conclusion (2)
• It would probably be easier to ban the expression ‘water resources’ from our vocabulary…
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Thank you