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Vulnerability and Adaptation AssessmentHands-on Training Workshop

for the Africa Region

- Integration and Communication of V&A Analysis -

Maputo, Mozambique18-22 April 2005

Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group

Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc.

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Outline Integration of Results

General Points Cross sector and multi-sector integration Setting priorities

Vulnerability Adaptation

Communications Conclusions

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Why is Integration Important?

Necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations

Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can affect another Some sectors are affected directly and

indirectly Others just indirectly Sometimes a change in one sector can offset

the affect of climate change in another sector

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Integration of Impacts Two Main Types

Cross-Sector Integration Link related Sectors

Multi-Sector Economy or System wide

Integrated Assessment Models Economic Models

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Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect

In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate change

In one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture

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Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT

CLIMATEPrecip.,Temp.,

Solar Rad.

WEAPEvaluationPlanning

CROPWATRegionalirrigation

CERESCrop water

demand

WATBALStreamflow

PET

SCENARIOSGCM

SCENARIOSPopulation, Development,

Technology

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Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline

Indicator 1990 2060-Opt 2060-PesPopulation 54156 122% 122%GDP Ag 1143 96% 135%GDP non-Ag 4878 617% 224%Food price index 1.16 6.90% -3.40%

(1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)

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Multi-Sector Integration

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IMAGE Model

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Regional/National Economic Models

Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with non-market impacts

Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models

Require a lot of data Can be expensive Can be complex Communication of assumptions can be a

challenge

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An Example of a Regional Model

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A More “Simple” Approach

Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple

end points

Need to account for a lot of sectors

Does not capture sectoral interactions

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Estimates of Damages for India by Mendelsohn

Sector Damages ($ billions)

Agriculture -53.2

Forestry +0.1

Energy -21.9

Water -$1.2

Coastal Resources -0.1

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Can Also Measure # of People Affected

Millions at Risk study did this

Global burden of disease

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At a Minimum Should at least qualitatively identify linkages

and possible direction of impacts

If only can examine crops, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

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Setting Priorities Vulnerability

Adaptation

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Prioritization of Vulnerabilities

It can be quite useful for

Focusing adaptation measures

Monitoring

Adaptation

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Process is as Important as Outcome

This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise

Need to include stakeholders and policy makers

The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities

Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

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NAPA Process

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Adaptation Policy FrameworkTable 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards

C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6

System/Region/Hazard

Social impacts

Economic impacts

Environmental impacts

Political impacts

Ranking

A          

B          

C          

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OECD Method

Table 5.5. Nepal ranking

Resource/ranking Certainty of

impact Timing of

impact Severity of

impact Importance of

resource

Water resources (flooding) High High High High Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low Medium High Human health Low Medium ? High Biodiversity Low ? ? Medium-high

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Ranking Adaptations Screening

Multi-criteria assessment

Benefit-cost analysis

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Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

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Multi-Criteria Assessment

Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score

A 3 2 2 7

B 2 4 4 10

C 5 1 3 9

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Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan

Objective #1:

Food Security

Objective #2:

Exports

Objective #3:

Maximize Production

Objective #4: Sustainable

Agricult.

Objective #5:

Protect Env.

Objective #6:

Prevent Desertifi-

cation

Objective #7: Genetic

Diversity

Objective #8:

Employment

Measures Scenario: 5 2 3 5 2 3 1 4 Score

Current Current 4.00 0.70 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 4.50 4 74.9

Policy GFDL 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 1 32.5

+3; 0% 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.5 3 3 3 2 43.9

+2; +20% 3.5 1 1 2.5 4 4 4 3.5 73

Pest Current 5 2 3 3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 96

Forecast GFDL 2 1.5 0.7 1.5 2 3.3 3 1.1 43.9

+3; 0% 2.5 1.5 0.7 2 3 3.3 3 2.1 54.9

+2; +20% 4.5 2 1.5 3.5 4 4.3 4 3.6 87.8

Regional Current 5 1.5 2 2.5 4 4 5 4 87.5

Centers GFDL 1.00 1.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 5 1 35.5

+3; 0% 1.5 1 0.5 1.5 3 3 5 2 46.5

+2; +20% 3.5 1.5 1 2.5 4 4 5 3.5 75

Rules for Current 5 3 3.5 3 4 4 4.5 4 97

Free GFDL 1.3 1.1 0.8 2.5 2.5 3.5 3 1.3 47.3

Market +3; 0% 2 1.1 1 3 3.5 3.5 3 2.3 59.9

+2; +20% 4.5 1.7 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 3.9 96.5

Reduce Current 5 3 5 5 5 5 4.5 4 116.5

Soil GFDL 2.5 1.5 1.5 3 4 3.5 3 1.2 61.3

Erosion +3; 0% 3.2 1.5 1.5 3.5 4.5 3.7 3 2.2 72.9

+2; +20% 4.3 2 2.2 4.5 5 5 4 3.8 98.8

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Ranking Based on Scenario

Culture of Water Capture Runoff Use Different Building MaterialsCurrent Climate 1 2 3

Hotter and Drier 2 3 1

Hotter and Wetter 1 2 3

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Benefit-Cost Analysis Estimate all benefits and costs in a common

metric to determine whether benefits > costs

Monetary values often used

Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties

Difficulty: requires a lot of data and analysis

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BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

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What to Use

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Presenting Resultsin Your National Communication

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UNFCCC Decision 17/CP.8

“. . . non-Annex I Parties should provide information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, and on adaptation measures being taken to meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse effects.”

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Communication The National Communication (NC) needs to

clearly communicate vulnerability and adaptation findings

Fine to describe methods and results of analyses But, needs to synthesize and integrate results

The NC needs to clearly communicate Who and what is vulnerable

How that may vary across time and geographic region

What is needed to be done to adapt Where and when

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First Thing: Remember Purpose Who is the audience for the NC?

What kind of information do they need?

How can it most effectively be presented to them?

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Presenting Vulnerabilities

We’ll cover two things

Clearly presenting results

Presenting who and what is most vulnerable

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Clearly Presenting Vulnerability Findings

The key is

Organization

Clarity

Simplicity

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Seychelles First NC

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Tanzania’s First NC

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From Users Manual

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Relative Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Impacts

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Presenting Adaptation Results

Present identified adaptations in a clear manner

Evaluate or rank adaptations Consider possible effectiveness within your

country

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Seychelles: Adaptations

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South Africa: Evaluation

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Conclusions Integration is important to at least identify

related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be

surprises Integration can also be useful for examining

total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities Clear synthesis and reporting of results is

important Analytic methods exist for analyzing and

ranking adaptations

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Some Final Thoughts

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“To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail”

Methods or models are a means to get an answer

Before addressing the answer, we must consider the question(s) being asked

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These Questions are Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study

You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions

Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions