1 u.s. science & technology: issues and outlook by erich bloch director september 26, 2005
TRANSCRIPT
1
U.S. Science & Technology:Issues and Outlook
by
Erich BlochDirector
September 26, 2005
2
Innovation
“… intersection of invention and insight; leading to the
creation of social and economic values.”
SOURCE: Council on Competitiveness, Innovate America, 2004.
3
World Economy
4
Real GDP (PPP): Projections 2004 - 2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Trillions of 1995 International Dollars
India
China
United States
JapanGermany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Canada
Mexico
Russian Federation
Brazil
SOURCE: World Bank Institute, unpublished presentation, August 4, 2005
India China Brazil
Canada Germany
Italy Japan
Russian Federation United Kingdom United StatesMexico
France
5
Global Competitiveness Rankings
1 Finland2 United States3 Sweden4 Taiwan5 Denmark6 Norway7 Singapore8 Switzerland9 Japan10 Iceland
11 United Kingdom12 Netherlands13 Germany14 Australia15 Canada
19 Israel
30 Ireland
46 China
55 India
SOURCE: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005
6
Ireland
• Size: 4,015,676 population / 70,280 sq km• GDP: $126.4 billion / $31,900 per capita
5.1% growth rate• Labor Force: 1.92 million
4.3% unemployment• Higher Education:
– Doctorate-granting institutions: 8– Total undergrad enrollment: 118,569– Total graduate enrollment: 15,318
7
Adjusted for Inflation, U.S. Per Capita GDP Has Increased by 50% Since 1985Per Capita GDP 1985-2004, Thousands of 2003 Dollars
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Th
ou
san
ds
of
2003
do
llar
s p
er p
erso
n
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
8
The U.S. Keeps Its Lead Over Developed EconomiesPer Capita GDP As a Percent of U.S. Level, Purchasing Power Parity Basis
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Per
cen
t o
f U
.S.
Lev
el
Canada Japan U.K. Eurozone
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
9
IT Accounted for Nearly Half of Business InvestmentInvestment as Percent of Total Business Fixed Investment, 2004
Structures23%
Industrial Equipment
12%
Transport Equipment
12%
Other Equipment13%
Information Technologies
40%
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
10
The Wide Dispersion in U.S. Incomes PersistsMean Household Pretax Income, Thousands of 2003 Dollars
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Tho
usan
ds o
f 20
03 D
olla
rs
Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest Quintile
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2003. Income excludes noncash benefits.
11
Increase in U.S. Trade Deficit Accompanied by Growing Federal Budget DeficitFederal Budget and Current Account Deficits, Billions of Dollars
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300-200
-100
0
100
200
300
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Federal Budget International Current Account
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.
12
Technology Balance of PaymentsMillions of U.S. $
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1981 1985 1991 1995 2001 2002
France Germany Italy Japan UK USA
SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook, 2004
13
R&D
14
Federal Commitments to R&D Have WanedUS R&D Expenditures as a percentage of GDP: 1953-2002
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Total R&D/GDP Federal R&D/GDP Non-Federal R&D/GDP
SOURCE: National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics.
15
Support for Engineering and Physical Sciences LaggedFederal Obligations for total research by field, millions of constant 1996 dollars
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Life Sciences Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences Math and Computer Sciences
Engineering
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
16
Fast Growth in R&D Outside the U.S. Demonstrates a Commitment to InnovationCompound Annual Growth Rate in R&D Expenditures, 1991-2001 or Latest Year Available
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
Korea
Irelan
d
Sweden
Canada
U.S.A
Japa
nU.K
Germ
any
Franc
eIta
ly
SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook 2004
17
Global R&D Investment Continues to ExpandTotal R&D Investment as a Percent of GDP, 1991 and 2001
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%S
wed
en
Japa
n
Kor
ea
U.S
.A
Ger
man
y
Fra
nce
Can
ada
Irel
and
Ital
y
1991 2001
SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook 2004
18
S&E Workforce
19
S&E Job Growth Projected to Exceed Overall Job Growth RateProjected Increase in Employment, Percent Change from 2000 to 2010
15
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
All Occupations All S&E Occupations
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
20
Outside of Life Sciences, Undergraduate Degrees in S&E Were Flat or DecliningEarned S&E Bachelor Degrees, select years 1977-2000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000
Physical sciences Biological sciences Mathematics Engineering
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
21SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
US Share of Worldwide S&E Degrees Awarded Declined SignificantlyRatio of First University S&E Degrees to 24-year-old Population, 1975 and 2000, or most recent year
02468
101214
China
Mex
ico
Belgium
Norway
United
Sta
tes
Italy
Switzer
land
Germ
any
Canad
a
Nethe
rland
s
Japa
n
Spain
Irelan
d
Sweden
United
King
dom
South
Kor
ea
Taiw
an
Fran
ce
Finla
nd
1975 2000
22
Noncitizens Account for Growth in S&E Doctorates in USS&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded in US, 1973-2001
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
U.S. White Male U.S. White Female U.S. minority Foreign Total
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.
23
Number of S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded Growing Faster Worldwide Than in USCompounded Annual Growth Rate of S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded, 1991-2001
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
United States
Germany
India
France
United Kingdom
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
China
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.