1 the yukon river basin assessment and integrated climate-effects monitoring network
TRANSCRIPT
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The Yukon River Basin Assessment and Integrated
Climate-Effects Monitoring Network
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NotesNotes
Boreal Forest Ecosystems
• 25 - 30% of Global Soil Pool
• 30% Global Vegetation Pool
The Yukon Basin holds large stores of carbon
33Globally and locally significant rapid change
Permafrost Temperature
Romanovsky, 1999
1978 2002
(courtesy of B. Riordan)(courtesy of B. Riordan)
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Wetter,warmer
Will thawing permafrost greatly accelerate CO2 flux?
C Loss
to Fire
--
% of NPP
C Loss to Decomposition
% of NPP
0
30
60
V. Poorly Drained
Drier,warmer
Cooler, wetter
0 100
Permafrost
Landscapes
Well drained
Harden et al, GCB Dec. 2000
• Landscape is Heterogeneous, Controlled by Soil Drainage
• Permafrost Landscape Highly “Elastic” in C exchange
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Coastal Ocean Issues:The largest coastal C sinks are considered to be “the high-productivity waters of the Bering Sea shelf where nutrient and sediment inputs from coastal rivers are large and variable”
(OCCC Strategic Plan: Doney et al, 2004).
River export of carbon is changing with permafrost thawing (Striegl et al, 2005)
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The Yukon River Basin Assessment and Integrated
Climate-Effects Monitoring Network
OBJECTIVE: To use a multi-agency collaboration to compute whole-system hydrologic, carbon, and energy budgets for a common frame of reference (a watershed), and to assess how changes in those balances affect human activity and ecological function.
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Assessment Science Questions
How will increases in temperature affect the hydrology of the Yukon River Basin?
Will carbon “feedbacks” to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost potentially enhance global climate warming?
How will warming affect the abundance, quality, and distribution of subsistence resources?
What strategies are needed to mitigate or adapt to the likely effects of warming in northern latitudes?
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Multi-component –Multi scale Observations For a Common Frame of Reference
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Vegetation
Soil OrganicMatter
Soil Inorganic Carbon
CO2(g)
abvR
CO2(aq)
HCO3-
CO3-2
rootR
RH
CO2 (g)CO2 (g)
AlkalinityCO2(aq)
Shaded area = Modified TEM
soilR
DOC Stream Export
CO2 (g)
ChemicalWeathering
POC
GPP
erodePOCleachDOC
harvest
leachCO2 leachALK
evadeCO2
fire
Models that link terrestrial and aquatic systems:
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The Yukon Watershed is entirely above 60o North Latitude
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Significant federal lands in the Yukon Basin 5 National Parks/ NRAs (Vital Signs)
8 Wildlife Refuges
3 Large military land holdings (CRREL) Clow, 2006
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Proposed Data Collection- USGS/Canada
Porcupine
River
Tanana River
Yukon
RiverKoyukuk River
WhitehorseWhitehorse
Fort YukonFort Yukon
Pilot StationPilot Station
StevensStevensVillageVillage
EagleEagle
Fixed Station NetworkFixed Station NetworkRiver SamplingRiver Sampling
June & Aug-Sept., 2002June & Aug-Sept., 2002
June & Aug-Sept., 2003June & Aug-Sept., 2003
Major Drainage Basins
Porcupine R.Tanana R.
Upper Yukon R. & Headwaters
East Central Yukon R.Koyukuk R. & West, Lower Yukon R.
Yukon R. at EagleYukon R. at Eagle
Yukon R. at Pilot StationYukon R. at Pilot Station
Tanana R.Tanana R.
Porcupine R.Porcupine R.
Yukon R. near Stevens VillageYukon R. near Stevens Village
LTER, Wolf CreekNOAA-IPYUSGS
Fixed river stations and research watersheds
Flux Tower
(YRITWC)
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Forest
Water
Integrated Regional Assessment of Effects of Climate in the Yukon River Basin
FIA, USGS, LTER, BLM, UA, NRCAN
FIA/FHM- USGS, NPS,
NRCS, Research & Surveys
Soil
USGS, UAF, UAA, CRREL, YRITWC, NOAA, Alaska DEC
FWS, NPS, UA, USGS
Air
NOAA, USGS, UAF, FLUXNET
Biology
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Brooks Range Range
Alaska Range Range
Seward Peninsula
Fairbanks
Anchorage
MODIS Satellite, 10 August, 2005
The Yukon River Basin: A rapidly changing landscape
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Scope of a Socio-Economic Assessment
Risk reduction Strategies
land use, mitigation, emergency response
Scientific data extent, magnitude,
probability of MULTIPLE natural hazards
Vulnerabilityphysical,
environmental, social, economic
(property)
Natural hazard
risk analysis
Acceptable community
risk
Natural hazards risk reduction decision-making Shapiro,
written comm.
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PERMAFROST
CO2
CO2
CO2
CH4
CH4
CH4
Thermo-karst wetlands emitted 13 times more CH4 to the atmosphere than the permafrost plateau sites on an annual basis. m
mol
CH
4 m
-2 h
r-1-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
3/20 4/9 4/29 5/19 6/8 6/28 7/18 8/7 8/27 9/16
Thermokarst wetlands
Thermokarst edges Permafrost plateau
METHANE FLUX
Wickland, 2006
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Multi-tier Monitoring DesignScale-appropriate monitoring linked
through common indicators Tier One – Intensive Research Areas
Relatively small number of specific sites representing important processes
Tier Two – Gradient-based surveys Mapping of condition using sites
representative of a specific condition class and indicator coverages.
Tier Three – Extensive Inventories and Surveys
Statistical representation of the population Tier Four –Remote Sensing and
Mapping Wall-to-wall coverage
Increasing spatial resolution
Increasing temporal resolution
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FOREST SERVICE INVENTORY SAMPLE PLAN (12-15 years)
Tanana River5 yrs
Lower Yukon5 yrs
n plots
301
598
180 plots/yr
Upper Yukon – Porcupine2 yrs
261
n plots
118
190 plots/yr
n plots
89
1010
220 plots/yr
Ac/plot
94,400
23,600Draft, Van Hees, 2005
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Expectations for the talk Conceptual descriptionRelevance to IPY goalsPartnershipsRelated work within DOI
2020
1.Present Environmental Status
2.Past and Present Changes
3.Global and Regional Multi-scale Linkages
4.New Frontiers of Understanding
5.Establishing a Northern Vantage Point
6.Human Dimension: Sustainability
Addresses all IPY Research Themes: