1The Way AheadThe Way AheadDr. Ed Smith+1-703-872-4028

Boeing

Effects-Based Operations: The The “how to”“how to”

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OutlineOutline

1. Complexity• …and Effects-Based Operations• Living systems

2. The Action-Reaction Cycle3. Dissecting the Cycle

• Essential processes• Drill Downs

4. Scalability and Timeliness• Human intervention continua

5. Conclusion: “It’s the people, stupid!”

3The Way AheadThe Way Ahead

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Effects-Based Operations:Effects-Based Operations:

Coordinated sets of actions

directed at shaping the

behavior

of friends, foes, and neutrals

in peace, crisis, and war

1. Complexity1. Complexity

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Complicated vs. ComplexComplicated vs. Complex

• The Complicated – Predictable cause and effect chain– Inputs/outputs proportional; whole equals sum of parts

• The Complex – Multiple interdependent variables; changing cause and

effect chain – Inputs and outputs not proportional; whole does not equal

sum of the parts

• The Complex Adaptive– Not only complex but evolves independently

• …and The System of Complex Adaptive Systems

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Group

Organization

Community

Societal

Supranational

Organism

Organ

Cell

OOOOOOO

oooooooo

oooooooooooooo

James Grier Miller, Living Systems

Biological

Sociological

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Tactical Unit

Operational Command

Military

State

International

Warfighter OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Al Qaeda

Regional Franchise

Local Network

Terrorist Cell

Terrorist

State vs. Non-State Actor

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Judgment

RedBlue

Uncer

taint

yShared Awareness

Mental ModelPrior

Knowledge

Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

2. 2. The Action-Reaction-CycleThe Action-Reaction-Cycle

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Synchronization

Judgment

RedBlue

Uncer

taint

yShared Awareness

Mental ModelPrior

Knowledge

Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

SocialDomain

ReligionEducation

Government And Politics

InstitutionalCulture

Economy

SocialStructure

History &Culture

……and Beyond - Tand Beyond - The Social Domainhe Social Domain

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Judgment

RedBlue

Uncer

taint

yShared Awareness

Mental ModelPrior

Knowledge

Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

SocialDomain

ReligionEducation

Government And Politics

InstitutionalCulture

Economy

SocialStructure

History &Culture

Continuing Action Reaction Cycles but…Continuing Action Reaction Cycles but…

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…on a Spiral Continuum

Time

Peace

Crisis

Hostilities

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Synchronization

Judgment

Shared Awareness

Mental ModelPrior Knowledge

Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

SocialDomain

ReligionEducation

Government And Politics

InstitutionalCulture

Economy

SocialStructure

History &Culture

3. Dissecting the Cycle3. Dissecting the Cycle

1. AwarenessCreation

1. AwarenessCreation

2. Sensemaking2. Sensemaking 3. Decision-Making3. Decision-Making

4. Execution4. Execution

5. Social Influence5. Social Influence

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Awareness Creation

Tasking Collection Fusion

Sensors HumanReporting

Open Sources

Parameters

History

Data Handling

Process

Personnel

Personnel

Train

Manage

Validation

Interpreting

Mining

Validation

Assessment

Collate Fuse

Electronic

Human

Sources

Subjects

SystemCapacity

Priority

Situation

DecisionLevel

Person

History

Org.

History

Org.

Linear

Models

Sensemaking

Contextualization

History KnowledgeBase

Mental Model

Analysis

Compilation

Situation

Time

History

Retrieval

Tasking feedback

Organization

HistoryInternal

Subject

External

Interface

Identify

Validate

Culture

Organization

Profession

Society

Idiosyncratic

Cause/Effect

Futures

Process

Organization

Personalities

Cascades

Physical

Psychological

Cascades

Military

Diplomatic

Economic

Political

Intentions

FutureActions

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Decision-making

By Level

CapabilitiesAvailable

Military

Economic

Political

RequiredEffects

Direct

Indirect

Observers

Foe

Friend

Neutral

Options Choice/PlanProjected Sensemaking

Evaluate/Choose

Self

DesiredEnd State

ShortTerm

LongTerm

Diplomatic

Plan Courseof Action

By LevelActions

Allied

CapabilitiesAssess/Assign

Non-Organic

Communicate

Create CoursesOf Action

Evaluate

Feasibility

Timeliness

Choose

Organic

Accessible

Coordinate

Military

Diplomatic

Economic

Political

Flexibility

Robustness

Direction/Guidance

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Execution

Observables Context Feedback

Surveillance

Foe

Friend

Neutral

ObservablesCoordination

Planned

Ambient

MilitaryDiplomaticEconomicPolitical

MilitaryDiplomaticEconomicPolitical

ImmediateTactical

ImmediateOther

Unplanned

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Social Domain

Mental Models

Understanding Sensemaking OptionsChoice

Group

Organization

Individual

Viability

Acceptability

Experience

Education

Training

Level

Culture

National

Organizational

Global Awareness

Access

Media

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InformationDomain

CognitiveDomain

Physical Domain

ActionObjects/events

Data (representation)

Information (data in context)

Options•Choices among alternatives•Choices to wait•Choices to seek information•Choices to consult others

Directives

Planning

Synchronization

Judgment

Shared Awareness

Mental ModelObserver•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Observer•Cause and Effect•Temporal relations •Dynamic Futures

Sensemaking•Values•Anticipated Futures•Alternatives

Prior Knowledge

SocietalDomain

ReligionEducation

Government And Politics

InstitutionalCulture

Economy

SocialStructure

History &Culture

4. Scalability and Timeliness4. Scalability and Timeliness

ObserveObserve

OrientOrient DecideDecide

ActAct

5. Societal Influence5. Societal Influence

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Human InterventionHuman Intervention

Four Rules of Thumb:

• The greater the uncertainties and ambiguities…• The greater the complexity…• The shorter the decision-time…• The poorer the networking…

The greater the human intervention required

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Conclusion: Conclusion: “It’s the people, stupid!”“It’s the people, stupid!”

• So where’s the cookbook?– Effects-Based Operations = People = Complexity

therefore…– There is no cookbook

• Complex, multi-level, multi-arena responses

• Human in the loop is key– Challenge 1: where, when, how– Challenge 2: increasing probability of being right

• Second Generation Network Centric Operations– Supporting the man in the loop– Networking vice networks