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The Impact of Oil Depletion on Australia
Bruce Robinson, Brian Fleay & Sherry MayoSustainable Transport Coalition
ASPO Lisbon May 2005
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Look Out Australia ! Something serious is looming on the radar
Sustainable Transport Coalition
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Summary
Australia, now Oil demand, production, use (transport)
Geography, population3 different countries remote, rural, urban
High Oil Vulnerability Australia will be badly affected by oil depletion,
unless substantial changes are made
Possible change options for government
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80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport
If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop → ethanol = 9%
Australia uses 45,000 megalitres of oil each year
a 360m cube
Sydney Harbour Bridge is 134 m high
=1.3 EfT3
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oil consumption bbl/day/1000 people
Aust Eu-15 USA China Japan0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Australia EU-15 USA China Japan
Registered Vehicles per 1000
Aust Eu-15 USA China Japan
Registered vehicles /1000 people
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
Australia EU-15 USA China J apan
Oil Consumption bbl/day (blue = net imports, red = production)Total Oil Consumption
Production Net imports
Aust Eu-15+ USA China Japan
20
0
10
M bbl/day
EU 15 + Norway
1 km
Australia
China
United Statesl l
6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1 11 21 31 41 51 611965 202520051985
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Geoscience Australia, APPEA, ABARE
Australia’s oil production and consumption1965-2030
Million barrels/day
Actual Forecast
Consumption
Production
P50
Evolution of Forecasts of Australian Oil ProductionGeoscience Australia (Australian Geological Survey)
k bbl/day Actual Forecasts
Evolution of Forecasts of Australian Oil ProductionGeoscience Australia (Australian Geological Survey)
k bbl/day Actual Forecasts
Past liquids production forecasts have often proven too low.NGL production depends on gas contracts
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Australia“A wide brown land”“The Tyranny of Distance”
Annual rainfall
3200
1600
mm
800
400
Perth to Sydney 3300 km
BigMostly aridMostly low fertility soils20 M people Already exceeding sustainable population
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Remoteness classificationMajor citiesInner regionalOuter regionalRemoteVery remote
Very remote
Major cities
Outer regional
Remote
Inner regional
3 separate countries Remote Regional Urban 3% 31% 66%
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Indigenous communities
Blackstone community
ROAD ACCESS:800 km to Alice Springs. 1110 km to Kalgoorlie
Weekly police patrol visits by vehicle from Laverton, 750 km to the West.
Twice weekly small aircraft from Alice Springs to Kalgoorlie,
The largest dots indicate 500 people or more, the smallest less than 50
2.4% of Australians are indigenous
Remote Australia mining, pastoral, indigenous
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Urban/Suburban Australia
Institute for Sustainability and Technology PolicyMurdoch University, Perth
City wealth vs car useper capita (1990)
AusUSEurope
car use wealth
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Urban passenger mode shares Australia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mo
de
sh
are
(p
er
cen
t)
Car
Rail
BusOther
Potterton BTRE 2003
High automobile-dependence
Public transport share is very low
Car
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Non-urban passenger outlook: Air grows faster than other modes
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(bil
lio
n p
km)
Air
Rail
Other
Bus
Car
Actual Projections
Potterton BTRE 2003
Air passenger
Car
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$10 PER LITRE PETROL: A SCENARIO(a ten-fold increase)
David Rice, Senior WA Transport Planner
The scenario means “What if petrol reaches $10/l?Planners should include this scenario, as well as “business-as-usual”
But why $10/l?
Simplememorable
an illustration of ‘expensive’
www.stcwa.org.au/beyondoil/$10petrol.doc
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The Canberra fire-storms of January 2003 destroyed over 400 houses; on the outer edge of the outer suburbs
Reliable predictions had been ignored by the authorities,
and there was no effective action to minimise the risks
The impact of oil depletion on Australian cities.
The bushfire analogy
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Satellite image of Canberra region showing fire-damage from the west. January 2003.
Red hues are burnt areas.
White lines show suburbs
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Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
Perth30 km
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Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
Perth30 km
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Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
Perth30 km
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Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
Perth30 km
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Perth30 kmThe outskirts of all
Australian cities will be hard hit by oil depletion, as public transport infrastructure is very poor
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The Guardian Tuesday December 2, 2003
“Bottom of the barrel
The world is running out of oil - so why do politicians refuse to talk about it?
Every generation has its taboo ..the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it.
This is a civilisation in denial”.
George Monbiot see www.monbiot.com
short
most^
UK National Newspaper
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Govt releases new energy strategy
Future oil summary, IEA only “No Worries”
Another “Intelligence Failure” like WMD?
June 15, 2004
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“Production itself is likely to peak, maybe as early as 2006, but more conventionally 2010 – 2015”
“It is also certain that the cost of preparing too early is nowhere near the cost of not being ready on time.”
WA Minister Alannah MacTiernan
“Peak oil represents the most serious and immediatechallenge to our prosperity and security.
It will impact on our lives more certainly than terrorism, global warming, nuclear war or bird flu.”
Queensland State Parliament
Western Australian State Government
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
World oil shortfall scenarios
Past Production of Oil
ForecastProduction
Demand Growth
Deprivation, war
City design/lifestyle
Pricing / taxes
Transport mode shifts
Efficiency
Other petroleum fuels gas, tar-sands
Other fuels
Gb/year
• no single “Magic Bullet” solution, • Noah! Start now! Hard to build the ark under water
2005
after Swenson, 2000
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Individualised Marketing: Travel behaviour change
Equivalent to discovering another Iraq?
Reducing automobile travel can produce “nega-barrels”* of oil more cheaply than oil can be found by exploration. (*negative oil, saved by conservation)
Large programs in cities in Germany, Australia & Sweden have shown sustained average reductions of 13% in car-kms travelled.
Individualised Marketing informs interested people of available travel options. They are empowered to choose different travel modes and to reduce unnecessary travel.
The strategy (IndiMark®) was developed by Munich firm Socialdata.
About half the world’s 80 million barrels of oil per day goes on road transport. A 5% reduction in global motor vehicle transport usage would save about as much oil as Iraq now produces (circa 2M b/d).
Reduction of 10% in US travel alone would save half an “Iraq”.
Discovering another Iraq ?
www.STCwa.org.au/negabarrelswww.Socialdata.de
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The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher
Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European levels on a fuel tax escalator
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Nominal tax per litre (pence)
Real tax
10
30
50
40
20
0
pence
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“Add in the geopolitical costs of oil and the case for raising petrol taxes, especially in America, becomes overwhelming”
April 30th- May 6th 2005
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$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
0 150 350 550 750 1150 1950
WA domestic water prices, 2002/03
/kl
kl range
A rational pricing system Perth domestic water
Renewable scarce resource
A personal fuel SmartCard system could tax petrol and diesel on a sliding scale like water.
People could trade unused allocations to those who want more fuel.
Water Analogy for Fuel Pricing
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toroads,4WDsprofligate vehicle usersheavy inefficient vehicles
Supermarket petrol discounts
People who walk to the supermarket are subsidising those who drive in the big SUVs
There are innumerable “Perverse” subsidies
0%
10%
20%
30%
0 15,000 25,000 40,000
FBT tax on motor vehicles
km range
Tax on cars as part of salary
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Participatory Democracy 1300 people at city planning workshop Perth 2003
Oil depletion actionneeds an informed and engaged community
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1: “Talk about it, Talk about it”2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy”3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport.
Australian Government Policy and Action Options
4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage.5: SmartCard personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage..6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence, not just “technological fixes”7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management.8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are better investments than more roads.9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas supplies to food production, essential services and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system.10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each may reduce their risks.11 Promote through the United Nations an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the declining oil among nations. An international tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is one hypothetical option.
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Australia must not let the opportunities slip awayMany of the policy options to reduce fuel usage will also lead to wealthier, healthier and happier communities.
Australia is very well placed globally Big attitude changes in past;
to race, gender, smoking, water..
World-leading demand management skills TravelSmart and water conservation
Considerable uncommitted gas reserves
Failure to act now will prove incredibly costly
Abstract at www.STCwa.org.au/aspo
See our “Oil: Living with Less” policySustainable Transport Coalition www.STCwa.org.au
46“Oil: Living with Less” at www.STCwa.org.au
Bicycles are powered by biomass, renewable energy,either breakfast cereal or abdominal fat
No shortage of either