1 the ecmwf monthly and seasonal forecast systems d. anderson, m. balmaseda, l. ferranti, f....

1

The ECMWF Monthly and

Seasonal Forecast Systems

D. Anderson, M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, F. Molteni, T. Stockdale, F. VitartECMWF, Reading, UK

2

Main topics

• Monthly forecast system:– merging with VAREPS– new atmospheric model cycle : improved simulation of

tropical intra-seasonal variability– some recent results from the operational version

• Seasonal forecast system: from System 2 to System 3– improved ocean data assimilation– better predictions of tropical SST– reduced systematic errors in atmospheric fields

3

Monthly Forecasting System

Real-time forecast:

• Coupled ocean-atmosphere integrations: a 51-member ensemble is integrated for 32 days every Thursday.

• Atmospheric component: IFS with the latest operational cycle and with a TL159L62 resolution

• Oceanic component: HOPE (from Max-Planck Institute) with a zonal resolution of 1.4 degrees and 29 vertical levels

• Coupling: OASIS (CERFACS). Coupling every ocean time step (1 hour)

Background statistics:

• 5-member ensemble integrated at the same day and same month as the real-time time forecast over the past 12 years

4

Model changes during the past year

New versions of IFS :

• Cycle 29R2 in June 2005 + new sea ice treatment*

• Cycle 30R1 in Feb 2006 + change of vertical resolution (62 vertical levels)

•The sea-ice cover is persisted from the atmospheric initial conditions till day 10, then relaxed towards climatology. After day 30, the sea-ice cover is the climatologocal sea-ice cover (from ERA40).

Other changes:

• Archiving of probabilities

• Verification web site

• New products (Madden Julian Oscillation, products for the Southern Hemisphere)

5

Future developments: Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS

Present situation: 2 separate systems

EPS:

Day 0 Day 10

TL399L62 twice a day uncoupled

MOFC

: Day 0 Day 32

TL159L62 once a week

Ocean model

6

Future developments: Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS

Q1 2007: single system

VAREPS:

Day 0 Day 10

MOFC:

Day 0 Day 32Ocean model

TL399L62TL255L62

Once a week

Day 32

Day 10

7

48 5-ensemble member cases, CY30R1

VAREPS

Tl1

59

32/16 92% significance

VAREPS

Op. TL159

Prob. 2m temp. in upper tercile. NH. Day 12-18

ROC Area: 0.64 0.61

0.4 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.6 0.64 0.68 0.72 0.76epni WEEK2

0.4

0.44

0.48

0.52

0.56

0.6

0.64

0.68

0.72

0.76

em

lr W

EE

K2

epni/ emlr: 32/16Significance of WMW-test: 87%

2-meter temperature in lower tercileNorthern Extratropics

ROC Score: 2-meter temperatureECMWF Monthly Forecasts

MAGICS 6.10 leda - nec Wed Jan 25 12:15:26 2006

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit

rat

e

week219911001-20021001ECMWF Monthly Forecast, 2mtm upper tercile , Area:Northern Extratropics

ROC score = 0.639ROC score = 0.609

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution

56350.113 10

5

0.169 105

0.225 105

0.282 105

epni

emlr

8

ERA40 Analysis:

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

FORECAST BASED 13/11/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N

Zonal wind anomaly at 850 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

-1

30/01

29/0128/0127/01

26/0125/0124/01

23/0122/0121/01

20/0119/0118/0117/01

16/0115/0114/01

13/0112/0111/01

10/01 9/01 8/01

7/01 6/01 5/01

4/01 3/01 2/01

1/0131/1230/1229/12

28/1227/1226/12

25/1224/1223/12

22/1221/1220/12

19/1218/1217/12

16/1215/12

U 850 hPaVelocity Pot. 200 hPa

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DAYS


30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W


Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

6

30/01

29/0128/0127/01

26/0125/0124/01

23/0122/0121/01

20/0119/0118/0117/01

16/0115/0114/01

13/0112/0111/01

10/01 9/01 8/01

7/01 6/01 5/01

4/01 3/01 2/01

1/0131/1230/1229/12

28/1227/1226/12

25/1224/1223/12

22/1221/1220/12

19/1218/1217/12

16/1215/12

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DAY

S


30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W


Outgoing Long wave RadiationHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

30/01

29/0128/0127/01

26/0125/0124/01

23/0122/0121/01

20/0119/0118/0117/01

16/0115/0114/01

13/0112/0111/01

10/01 9/01 8/01

7/01 6/01 5/01

4/01 3/01 2/01

1/0131/1230/1229/12

28/1227/1226/12

25/1224/1223/12

22/1221/1220/12

19/1218/1217/12

16/1215/12

OLR

Madden Julian Oscillation experiments: 15/12/92 - 31/01/93

9

MJO simulation:Spectra of tropical velocity potential (in seasonal exper.)

Cy 23R4

ERA-40

Cy 30R2

10

Analysis Cntr T159 Forecast 1

-2

Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4

Analysis Cntr T159 Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4

CY29R1

CY30R2

Analysis Cntr T159 Forecast 1

-2

Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4

Analysis

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DAYS


30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W


Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

6

30/01

29/0128/0127/01

26/0125/0124/01

23/0122/0121/01

20/0119/0118/0117/01

16/0115/0114/01

13/0112/0111/01

10/01 9/01 8/01

7/01 6/01 5/01

4/01 3/01 2/01

1/0131/1230/1229/12

28/1227/1226/12

25/1224/1223/12

22/1221/1220/12

19/1218/1217/12

16/1215/12

Madden-Julian oscillation Forecast starting on 31 December 1992

11

MJO EOF analysis

The combined EOFs (vel. pot. 200-hPa, U 850 hPa, OLR) have been computed on ERA40 daily data from 2002 to 2004.

0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0

LONGITUDE

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

No

rma

lize

d M

ag

nitu

de

Combined EOF1Explained variance=18.8%

chi200U850olr

0 60E 120E 180 160W 120W 0

LONGITUDE

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nor

mal

ized

Mag

nitu

de

Combined EOF2Explained Variance=17.7%

chi200U850OLR

12

PC1 PC2

30R2 29R10 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Co

rrel

atio

n w

ith

ob

serv

ed P

C1

Linear Correlation with observed PC1: Individual ensemble members

er98 elz5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Co

rrel

atio

n w

ith

ob

serv

ed P

C2

Linear Correlation with observed PC2: Ensemble Mean

er98 elz5 Pers.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Co

rrel

atio

n w

ith

ob

serv

ed P

C1

Linear Correlation with observed PC1: Ensemble Mean

er98 elz5 Pers.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Co

rrel

atio

n w

ith

ob

serv

ed P

C1

Linear Correlation with observed PC2: individual ensemble members

er98 elz5

MJO EOF analysis

13

Precipitation over India

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18


<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06

ANA

Day

5-11

Day

12-18

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006

DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006

<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm

14

Precipitation over India

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E




10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ANALYSIS



<-90mm

-90..-60

-60..-30

-30..-10

-10.. 0

0.. 10

10.. 30

30.. 60

60.. 90

> 90mm

08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06

ANA

Day

19-25

Day

26-32

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E

DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006

DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006

<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm

16

•COUPLED MODEL• Atmospheric model cycle 23R4 • Atmospheric resolution TL95 and 40 levels• Hope ocean model (1x1)• Oasis coupler

•INITIALIZATION• ERA-15 data to initialize ocean and atmosphere • Assimilation of subsurface temperature only • “Multivariate” corrections to the salinity and velocity fields • Ensemble of 5 ocean analyses back to 1987.

•ENSEMBLE GENERATION• Real time FC: 40 ensemble members (SST and wind perturbations)• Back integrations:

• 5 members, 1987-2001 for calibration.• 40 members (Nov and May starts) for skill assessment.

System-2

ECMWF seasonal forecast

17

•COUPLED MODEL•New cycle of atmospheric model (Cy31R1)•Higher atmospheric resolution TL159 and 62 levels•Green house gasses and new aerosols.•New sea-ice specification algorithm•Include ocean currents in wave model

•INITIALIZATION•ERA-40 data to initialize ocean and atmosphere •Include bias correction in ocean assimilation.•Include assimilation of salinity and altimeter data. •Ocean reanalysis back to 1959, using ENACT/ENSEMBLES ocean data

•ENSEMBLE GENERATION•Extended range of back integrations: 11 members, 1981-2005.•Revised wind and SST perturbations. •Use EPS Singular Vector perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions.

•Forecasts out to 12 months (4x per year)

System-3(expected late 2006)

18

EUROSIP: EUROpean multi-modelSeasonal-to-Interannual

Prediction system

• Currently composed of ECMWF (System 2), Meteo-France (Arpege/ORCA) and UK MetOffice (GloSea) coupled systems

• Ensemble integrations performed at ECMWF• Multi-model products to be computed and made

available to member states• Graphical products available on the ECMWF web site• Data access/distribution policy to be agreed

19

+New Features•ERA-40 fluxes to initialize ocean

•Retrospective Ocean Reanalysis back to 1959.

•Multivariate on-line Bias Correction .

•Assimilation of salinity data.

•Assimilation of altimeter-derived sea level anomalies.

•3D OI

System-3

New ECMWF operational ocean (re)analysisBasic (existing) Setup:•Ocean model: HOPE (~1x1 going to 1x.3 at the equator)

•Assimilation Method OI

•Assimilation of T + Balanced relationships (T-S, ρ-U)

•10 days assimilation windows, increment spread in time

•Ensemble of 5 ocean analyses to represent uncertainty

20

North Atlantic:

T300 anomaly

North Atlantic:

S300 anomaly

Climate signals….

Reanalysis time series : trends and variability

(with uncertainty from 5 ocean analysis)

21

0001 ATL30NU 132

1970 1980 1990 2000Time

1.2·107

1.4·107

1.6·107

1.8·107

2.0·107

upper 1000m

0001 ATL30NI 132

1970 1980 1990 2000Time

-1.2·107

-1.1·107

-1.0·107

-9.0·106

-8.0·106

-7.0·106

1000m-3000m

0001 ATL30ND 132

1970 1980 1990 2000Time

-1.8·107

-1.6·107

-1.4·107

-1.2·107

-1.0·107

3000m-5000m

THC: Atlantic Meridional Transport (30N)

Values from Bryden et al 2005

22

Tropical Pacific SST indices: bias

---- System 2---- System 3 (exp.)

23

Tropical Pacific SST indices: skill scores


24

Tropical Pacific SST indices: error time series


25

JFM rainfall standard deviation and regression against the Nino3.4 index: GPCP

26

JFM rainfall standard deviation and regression against the Nino3.4 index: System 2

27

JFM rainfall standard deviation and regression against the Nino3.4 index: System 3

28

Systematic errors in atmospheric fields:

500-hPa geopotential height in JFM (m.4-6)

System 2

System 3

29

Systematic errors in atmospheric fields:

sea level pressure in JAS (m.4-6)

System 2

System 3

30

Systematic errors in atmospheric fields:2-m. temperature in

JAS (m.4-6)

System 2

System 3

31

Latest Niño 3.4 Forecast

EuroSIP ECMWF

32

ECMWF: Prob. 2m temp. > upper tercile

33

EUROSIP: Prob. 2m temp. > upper tercile

34

Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

14.3 10.39.8 13.325.1 26.22 2.9

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON

ECMWF

EuroSIPOBS: JASON 2005

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

20

20051993-2004WNP ENP Atl

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

17.8 11.88.7 12.520 212.3 2.5

No Significance Sig at 10% level Sig at 5% level Sig at 1% level

Ensemble size =120,climate size =180Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyEUROSIP multi-model seasonal forecast

Significance level is 10%JASON

ECMWF/Met Office/Météo-France

FORECAST CLIMATE

35

Tropical storm seasonal forecast for JASON 2006

ECMWF forecast issued in May

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

12.6 10.310.2 15.323.4 24.81.6 2.4

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/05/2006Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%JJASO

FORECAST CLIMATE

36

Tropical storm seasonal forecast for JASON 2006 ECMWF forecast issued in June

37

Summary

• Integration of VarEPS and monthly forecast: a step towards a “seamless prediction” system.

• Improvements in physical parametrizations (to be included in cy 31R1) reduce systematic errors and improve tropical intra-seasonal variability in monthly and seasonal forecasts.

• New ocean (re-)analysis beneficial to both seasonal forecasting and climate research

• Multi-model predictions moving from experimental (DEMETER, ENSEMBLES) to operational phase (EUROSIP).

1 the ecmwf monthly and seasonal forecast systems d. anderson, m. balmaseda, l. ferranti, f....

Documents

week day

week ocean model slide

ana day

ocean assimilation

ecmwf seasonal forecast

ecmwf system

day uncoupled mofc

ocean currents