1 state implementation plan (sip) modeling for 8-hour ozone preliminary 2009 results for metrolina...

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State Implementation Plan (SIP) Modeling for 8-hour Ozone

Preliminary 2009 ResultsFor Metrolina and

Great Smoky Mountain National Park Stakeholders

Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ

Laura Boothe, NCDAQ

Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ

June 28, 2005

2

Outline

• Review / Background• 15% VOC Requirements• Typical 2002 and Future 2009 emissions• Attainment test – How does it work?• Attainment test – Preliminary Results• Next steps

– Emissions changes anticipated in next set of modeling (2002 & 2009)

– Menu of possible control options

3

Background

• 8-hour ozone standard– If a monitored design value is > 0.08 ppm (84 ppb),

that monitor is violating the standard– The design value is defined as:

• 3-year average of the annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour average

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NC 8-hr Ozone Nonattainment Areas

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Ozone Nonattainment TimelineDefinitions for Metrolina Area

Effective date = June 15, 2004

Transportation conformity date = June 15, 2005

SIP submittal date = June 15, 2007

Attainment date = June 15, 2010*

Data used to determine attainment = 2007-2009

(Modeling) Attainment year = 2009

* Or as early as possible

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Modeling Application Process

• Select areas or domains of interest• Select representative ozone season/episodes• Prepare and refine meteorological simulations• Prepare and refine emission model inputs• Apply air quality modeling system• Performance evaluation of air quality modeling system• Prepare current and future year emissions• Re-apply air quality modeling system• Apply the attainment test

May 26th

Today

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Modeling Domains

36 km

12 km

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Modeling Season / Episode

• Full Year of 2002 selected for VISTAS modeling– Regional Haze / Fine Particulate: Full Year– Ozone: Late May – End Of August

• The “higher” portion of the 2002 ozone season selected for the Ozone SIP and Attainment Demonstration modeling.

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Air Quality Modeling System

Meteorological Model Emissions Processor

Air Quality Model

MM5 SMOKE

CMAQ

SparseMatrixOperatorKernelEmissions

Community

Multiscale

Air

Quality

System

Temporally and Spatially Gridded Air Quality Output

predictions

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Air Quality Modeling System

Meteorological Model Emissions Processor

Air Quality Model

MM5 SMOKE

CMAQ

SparseMatrixOperatorKernelEmissions

Community

Multiscale

Air

Quality

System

Temporally and Spatially Gridded Air Quality Output

predictions

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State Implementation Plan (SIP)

• Need a “SIP submittal” to EPA within three years– Attainment Demonstration that details the

State’s plan to bring the area into attainment of the Federal standard

– For Metrolina area…must include: • 15% VOC Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) Plan• VOC & NOX Reasonably Available Control

Technology (RACT)• Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) • Motor Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance

programs (I/M)

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15% VOC Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) Plan

• Calculated from the 2002 base year• Cannot substitute other emissions for the first plan• Phase 2 implementation guidance should say what

can and cannot be counted towards the 15% plan• Includes reductions from all man-made emissions,

i.e. point, area, highway mobile and off-road mobile

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15% VOC RFP for NC Portion of Metrolina Nonattainment Area*

Source 2002 (tons/day) 2009 (tons/day) % Reduction

Point 19.68 20.17 2.5

Area 20.82 22.55 8.3

Nonroad Mobile

28.42 17.67 -37.8

Highway Mobile

137.47 71.43 -48.0

Total 206.38 131.82 -36.1

* Does not include Iredell County

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15% VOC RFP for SC Portion of Metrolina Nonattainment Area*

Source 2002 (tons/day) 2009 (tons/day) % Reduction

Point 7.71 3.22 -58.2

Area 1.86 1.97 6.3

Nonroad Mobile

3.98 2.43 -38.9

Highway Mobile

11.56 6.93 -40.1

Total 25.11 14.56 -42.0

Total w/o Point

17.40 11.34 -34.9

* All of York County, not just the partial area

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VOC & NOX RACT

• All existing point sources with potential to emit ≥ 100 tons/year (TPY)

• NC has pre-adopted VOC RACT rules (2D .0900) and NOx RACT rule (2D .1413)– Will have to update to include entire Metrolina 8-hour

ozone nonattainment area– Will have to activate these rules

• SC has a statewide VOC rule for new sources with actual emissions ≥ 100 TPY and statewide NOx rule for large boilers (>10 MBTU/hour)

• Starting to identify potential sources subject to RACT requirements

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Other Requirements

• RACM Requirements – Applies to all source sectors (point, area, highway mobile & off-road

mobile sources)

– Only what is necessary to attain NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable

– NC has already adopted some RACM type rules

• Open burning ban during ozone events• Expanded I/M program

– SC has adopted some RACM type rules

• Open burning • Degreasers

• Motor Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance programs (I/M)– NC has already met this requirement in Metrolina area

– SC working on a program for the nonattainment area in York Co.

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2002 Typical and 2009 Emissions Overview

Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Environmental Engineer II

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Emissions Inventory Definitions

• ActualActual = the emissions inventory developed to simulate what happened in 2002

• TypicalTypical = the emissions inventory developed to characterize the “current” (2002) emissions… It doesn’t include specific events, but rather averages or typical conditions (e.g. EGUs and fires)

• FutureFuture = the emissions inventory developed to simulate the future (e.g. 2009 for Metrolina modeling)

***Remember… Actual is used for model performance evaluation only! Typical and Future are used to determine future attainment status.

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Preliminary 2002 Typical & 2009Emissions Comparison

North Carolina NOx em issions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Point On-roadMobile

Nonroad Area

ton

s/d

ay 2002

2009

North Carolina Statewide NOx Emissions

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Preliminary 2002 Typical & 2009Emissions Comparison

North Carolina NOx em issions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Point On-roadMobile

Nonroad Area

ton

s/d

ay 2002

2009

North Carolina Statewide NOx Emissions Metrolina NOx emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

Point Mobile Nonroad Area

ton

s/d

ay 2002

2009

Metrolina Area Includes: Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan, Union, York SC

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2002 Typical and 2009 Emission Summaries

• Point• Area & Nonroad• Mobile

Metrolina nonattainment area– NOx bar charts

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Area Souce NOx and Population

02468

10121416

ton

s/d

ay

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,0001,000,000

po

pu

lati

on

2002 2009 2002 2009

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Cabarrus CountyCabarrus County

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

2002 VMT2002 VMT

2002 NOx emissions = 19.9 tpd2002 NOx emissions = 19.9 tpd

2009 VMT2009 VMT

2009 NOx emissions = 10.5 tpd2009 NOx emissions = 10.5 tpd

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Gaston CountyCounty

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

2002 VMT2002 VMT 2009 VMT2009 VMT

2002 NOx emissions = 23.2 tpd2002 NOx emissions = 23.2 tpd 2009 NOx emissions = 10.8 tpd2009 NOx emissions = 10.8 tpd

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Iredell CountyIredell County

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

2002 VMT2002 VMT 2009 VMT2009 VMT


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Lincoln CountyLincoln County

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

2002 VMT2002 VMT 2009 VMT2009 VMT


29

Mecklenburg CountyMecklenburg County

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

2002 VMT2002 VMT 2009 VMT2009 VMT


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Rowan CountyRowan County

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

2002 VMT2002 VMT 2009 VMT2009 VMT


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Union CountyUnion County

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

LDGV

LDGT1

LDGT2

HDGV

OTHER

HDDV

2002 VMT2002 VMT 2009 VMT2009 VMT


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ONROAD Mobile NOx 2009 minus 2002

(max difference)

• Reductions only

• Scale 0 to –0.5 moles/s

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Air Quality Modeling Results

• Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ Meteorologist

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What is a Modeled Attainment Demonstration?

• Analyses which estimate whether selected emissions reductions will result in ambient concentrations will meet NAAQS

• An identified set of control measures which will result in the required emissions reductions

• Use the Modeled Attainment Test to estimate emissions reduction needed to demonstrate attainment

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What is the Attainment Test ?

• An exercise in which an air quality model is used to simulate current and future air quality near each monitoring site.

• Model estimates are used in a “relative” rather than “absolute” sense.

• Future ozone design values are estimated at existing monitoring sites by multiplying a modeled relative reduction factor at locations “near” each monitor times the observed monitor-specific ozone design value.

• The resulting projected site-specific “future design value” is compared to NAAQS.

• If all such future site-specific design values are 84 ppb, the test is passed.

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Attainment Test

DVF = RRF * DVC

DVF = Future Design Value RRF = Relative Reduction Factor DVC = Current Design Value

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Attainment Test

DVF = RRF * DVCRRF is basedon modeleddata

Future modeled valuesCurrent modeled values

DVC is basedon observeddata

If DVF is 84 ppb, the test is passed.

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Attainment Test

Step 1: Compute a current site-specific design value (DVC) from monitored data

Step 2: Use air quality modeling results to estimate a site-specific relative reduction factor (RRF)

Step 3: Multiply the relative reduction factor obtained in step 2 times the site-specific design value in step 1… The result is a predicted site-specific future design value (DVF)…


DVF = RRF * DVC

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Attainment Test

Step 1: Compute the current design value (DVC)

• The DVC is calculated for each monitoring

site within a nonattainment area. • EPA Draft Final Guidance for the 8-hour

Ozone standard suggests a few possible methods for calculating the DVC.

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Method 1

• Use the design value corresponds to the period used in the attainment designation.

• Same steps as determining a design value for designation:

– Step 1: Sort all daily 8-hour average maximums in order from highest to lowest into a list for 2001

– Step 2: Repeat Step 1 for the next two consecutive years (2002 & 2003) creating a total of three lists

– Step 3: Average the 4th highest from each list or across the 3-year span

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Method 2

• Use the design value period that straddles the baseline inventory year.

• Our baseline year is 2002; the corresponding DVC would be the average of the 4th highest 8-hour ozone concentrations from 2001, 2002, 2003.

• Results in the same value for Method 1 for our modeling.

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Method 3

• Average of the three design value period which include the baseline inventory year.

• Average of the 2000-2002, 2001-2003, 2002-2004 design value.

• This method represents the baseline concentrations while taking into account the variability in meteorology and emissions.

• EPA recommended method.

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Method 4

• Average of the design values for the 5 year period that straddles the baseline inventory year.

• Average of the 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 design value.

• This method takes into account the variability in meteorology and emissions without giving one year a higher weight than another.

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Attainment Test





DVF = RRF * DVC

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Relative vs. Absolute• Why use model estimates in a “relative” rather than “absolute”

sense?

– The form of the 8-hr standard (4th highest averaged over 3 years) makes it difficult to tell whether or not a modeled exceedance obtained on one or more days selected from a limited sample of days is consistent with meeting the NAAQS

– Problems with model performance are reduced (although good model performance remains a prerequisite for use of a model in an attainment demonstration)

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Attainment TestAttainment Test

Step 2: Compute the relative reduction factor (RRF)

RRF = the ratio of the model’s future to current projections “near” monitor “x”

(mean projected 8-hr daily max “near” monitor “x”)future

= (mean projected 8-hr daily max “near” monitor “x”)present

DVF = RRF * DVC

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Attainment Test Step 2 (con’t)... Definition of “near a monitor”

– EPA guidance recommends considering an array of values “near” each monitor

– Assume a monitor is at the center of the grid cell in which it is located and that cell is the center of an array of “nearby” cells

– Using a grid with 12 km grid cells, “nearby” is defined by a

3 x 3 array of cells, with the monitor located in the center cell

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Attainment Test

Step 2 (con’t)... Days used in RRF calculation• EPA has established cutoff value for model

values to be used in the calculation of the RRF• The predicted baseline (2002 typical) maximum 8-

hour concentrations < 70 ppb are excluded.• It is expected that future guidance will use 85 ppb

as a cutoff value with the stipulation that 10 days are needed to calculate a RRF. If the monitoring site does not have 10 days above 85 ppb, the cutoff is lowered until 10 days are obtained for the calculation.

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Attainment Test

Step 2 (con’t)... Computing the RRF

• Once the days in the baseline year that meet the cutoff value are identified, the peak value for each grid cell is determined for the day.

• The maximum of the peak daily values from the 3x3 grid array are then identified.

• The maximum from the array are averaged for all days identified to determine the Current Mean Peak 8-hour Daily Maximum.

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Attainment Test

Step 2 (con’t)... Computing the RRF

• This is then repeated for the same set of days from the Future year modeling.

• The maximum averaged value from the array is referred to as the Future Mean Peak 8-hour Daily Maximum.

• To obtain the RRF the Future Mean Peak 8-hour Daily Maximum is divided by the Current Mean Peak 8-hour Daily Maximum.

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Example Calculation

http://www.epa.gov/scram001/guidance/guide/draft-final-o3.pdf

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Attainment Test





DVF = RRF * DVC

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Attainment Test

Step 3: Compute the future design value (DVF)

DVF = RRF * DVC

Example:

DVFx(09) =Mean projected peak 8-hr daily max "near" monitor "x"

Mean projected peak 8-hr daily max "near" monitor "x"

DVC xX

Based on observed O3 data

2002 Meteorology2002 Emissions, processed with 2002 Meteorology

2002 Meteorology 2009 Emissions, processed with 2002 Meteorology

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Preliminary Results

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Attainment TestDVF = RRF * DVC

How sure are we that we’re going to attain?

Test the following:1. Use the various DVC calculation methods

2001-2003 DVC, Weighted Average, Average

2. Use both minimum thresholds (>70 ppb, >85ppb ) for excluding certain modeled days

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DVCs used

Just as a reminder:

• 01-03: The 2001 – 2003 design value. • Weighted Average:

(DV(00–02) + DV(01-03) + DV(02-04))/3

OR(4h(00)+ 2*4h(01)+ 3*4h(02)+ 2*4h(03)+ 4h(04))/9

• Average(4h(00)+ 4h(01)+ 4h(02)+ 4h(03)+ 4h(04))/5

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Preliminary Results -- Metrolina

Cutpoint # Days RRF 01-03 Weighted Average

Charlotte County Line 37-119-1009 70 52 0.863 0.084 0.083 0.081

Enochville 37-159-0022 70 57 0.861 0.085 0.083 0.080

Rockw ell 37-159-0021 70 52 0.860 0.086 0.083 0.080

Garinger (Plaza) 37-119-0041 70 56 0.868 0.083 0.082 0.080

Crouse 37-109-0004 70 49 0.860 0.079 0.077 0.076

Arrow ood 37-119-1005 70 53 0.877 0.073 0.073 0.072

Monroe 37-179-0003 70 39 0.862 0.075 0.074 0.072

York, SC 45-091-0006 70 40 0.858 0.072 0.071 0.067

Region Monitoring Sites AIRS IDOriginal RRF Method DVF With Original RRF Method

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Preliminary Results -- Metrolina


Charlotte County Line 37-119-1009 85 19 0.854 0.083 0.082 0.081

Enochville 37-159-0022 85 18 0.851 0.084 0.082 0.079

Rockw ell 37-159-0021 84 10 0.849 0.084 0.082 0.079

Garinger (Plaza) 37-119-0041 85 20 0.859 0.082 0.081 0.079

Crouse 37-109-0004 83 13 0.853 0.078 0.076 0.075

Arrow ood 37-119-1005 85 17 0.873 0.073 0.073 0.072

Monroe 37-179-0003 82 10 0.865 0.076 0.075 0.072

York, SC 45-091-0006 83 10 0.847 0.071 0.070 0.066

Newly Proposed RRF Method DVF With New RRF MethodRegion Monitoring Sites AIRS ID

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Preliminary Results -- GRSM


GRSM Purchase Knob 37-087-0036 74 11 0.849 0.072 0.071 0.070

Bryson 37-173-0002 72 10 0.827 0.061 0.060 0.058

Look Rock 47-009-0101 76 11 0.833 0.075 0.075 0.074

Cades Cove 47-009-0102 74 11 0.825 0.061 0.061 0.061

Cove Mnt 47-155-0101 74 10 0.822 0.074 0.073 0.072

Clingmans Dome 47-155-0102 73 11 0.829 0.076 0.075 0.074

Newly Proposed RRF Method DVF With New RRF MethodRegion Monitoring Sites AIRS ID


GRSM Purchase Knob 37-087-0036 70 19 0.853 0.072 0.071 0.070

Bryson 37-173-0002 70 12 0.837 0.061 0.061 0.059

Look Rock 47-009-0101 70 32 0.848 0.077 0.077 0.076

Cades Cove 47-009-0102 70 22 0.842 0.063 0.063 0.062

Cove Mnt 47-155-0101 70 23 0.840 0.076 0.075 0.073

Clingmans Dome 47-155-0102 70 17 0.845 0.077 0.076 0.076

Region Monitoring Sites AIRS IDOriginal RRF Method DVF With Original RRF Method

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The different methods can be used in conjunction with “the test”…

OR

Some could be used as supplemental analyses in a Weight Of Evidence determination…

Attainment Test

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Inventory Improvements

• Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Environmental Engineer II

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2009 Point Source Inventory Improvements

• Initial 2009 Electric Generating Unit (EGU) emissions were developed using assumptions in the Integrated Planning Model (IPM). – Those assumptions at facilities subject to the NC

Clean Smokestacks Act (CSA) were not consistent with the CSA compliance plan.

• Changes upcoming– Final 2009 run will include unit specific emissions as

specified in the June 1, 2005 NC CSA Compliance Plan submitted by Progress Energy and Duke Energy

– Kannapolis Energy shut down reflected appropriately

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2002 Typical and 2009 Area & Nonroad


• Area & Nonroad sources– No significant changes

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2002 Typical and 2009 Onroad Mobile Source


• 2002 VMT updated to reflect latest CDOT and NCDOT data used in recent transportation conformity analysis

• 2009 VMT will not change

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Control Strategy Discussion

• Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Attainment Planning Chief

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Additional Controls Discussion

• Based on EPA’s expected final modeling guidance:– The preliminary results show that the Metrolina area will pass

the attainment test– Several monitors are predicted to be close to the standard in

2009

• Do not know what the final modeling results will show– Several emission improvements– Cannot predict how the DVFs will change

• Therefore, need to be thinking about what additional controls may be needed

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What Has Already Been Done?

• Clean Smokestacks Act– Results in reductions of NOx & SO2 year round

• Vehicle emissions testing– Expanded from 9 to 48 Counties; all of the NC

Metrolina counties have I/M program

• Ultra-Low sulfur fuels• Cleaner engines

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What else can be controlled?

• Requirements still to address– Potential NOx reductions due to RACM – Potential NOx reductions due to RACT– NCDAQ still assessing these potential reductions

• What’s Left?

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Metrolina* NOx emissions

* Includes: Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan, Union, York SC

2002 NOx Emissions 388 tons/day

Point

Mobile

Nonroad

Area

2009 NOx Emissions227 tons/day

Point

Mobile

Nonroad

Area

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Need Stakeholders Input

• Point Sources– Already controlling utilities with CSA– Large industrial NOx sources with NOx RACT– What else can be controlled?

• Area Sources– Not a significant source of NOx– Already have rule prohibiting open burning for

forecasted code orange days and above

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Need Stakeholders Input

• Nonroad Mobile Sources– Voluntary/Mandatory diesel retrofits– Idle reduction policies– Need innovative local measures

• Highway Mobile Sources– Idle reduction policies– VMT reduction programs– Need innovative local measures

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Next Steps/Schedule

Emission Inventory improvements… ~June 2005

New/refined 2002 and 2009 emissions and air quality modeling… ~Aug/Sept 2005

Until then… Discussion will continue on:– RFP, RACT, RACM – Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs)– Follow latest updates to EPA Modeling Guidance

After new/refined 2002 & 2009 emissions & air quality modeling is complete…– Summarize emissions changes– Present latest attainment test results– Have more detailed discussions on RFP, RACT, RACM, MVEBs

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Contributors• South Carolina Department of Health and Environment Control• Pat Brewer, VISTAS• Greg Stella, Alpine Geophysics• Cyndi Loomis, Alpine Geophysics• Don Olerud, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems• Bill Barnard, MACTEC• Ed Sabo, MACTEC• Kristen Theising, PECHAN• Ralph Morris, ENVIRON• Gail Tonneson, University of California-Riverside• Dennis McNally, Alpine Geophysics• Jim Boylan, Georgia Environmental Protection Department• Sheila Holman, NCDAQ• Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ• Nick Witcraft, NCDAQ• Phyllis Jones, NCDAQ• Vicki Chandler, NCDAQ• Pat Bello, NCDAQ• Bob Wooten, NCDAQ• Matt Mahler, NCDAQ• Janice Godfrey, NCDAQ• Ming Xie, NCDAQ• Mildred Mitchell, NCDAQ• VISTAS Stakeholders

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Questions/Commentshttp://ncair.org

Laura Boothe, Chief of Attainment [email protected]

Mike Abraczinskas, Environmental Engineer [email protected]

Bebhinn Do, [email protected]

http://ncair.org/

mailto:[email protected]



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Thank You!

1 state implementation plan (sip) modeling for 8-hour ozone preliminary 2009 results for metrolina...

Documents

metrolina modeling

possible slide

modeling attainment

partial area slide

offroad mobile slide

emissions attainment

actual emissions

year ozone