1

State Characteristics: Domestic Migration - Overview

1. State domestic out-migration*

2. State domestic in-migration*

3. State domestic migration flows*

2

State Characteristics: State Domestic Out-migration

1. Calculate a set of state out migration rates– Out-migration rate = # of exemptions leaving the

state(tally?) / # of exemptions in the state (tally?)– If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH

combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

2. Expand to full ASRO distribution– Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is

assigned the rate of the category as a whole

3. Smooth the out-migration rates by age and perform final adjustment

3

State Characteristics: State Domestic In-migration

1. Calculate a set of state-to-state out-migration rates for each state– Out-migration rate = # of exemptions in state 1 in

Y1 that were in state 2 at Y2 (tally?)/ total # of exemptions in state 1 at Y1 (tally?)

– If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

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State Characteristics: State Domestic In-migration (cont.)

2. Calculate a set of state-specific out-migrants for each state by IRS characteristics

– Out-migrants = Out-migration rate for State 1-State 2 pair * state population for State 1 from previous vintage

3. Calculate state in-migrants– State in-migrants = Σ(state out migrants from

each other state to destination state)

5

State Characteristics: State Domestic In-migration (cont.)

3. Sum all state in-migrant estimates4. Calculate each state’s in-migration

proportion of the all-state sum [#3]– State in-migration proportion = preliminary state

in-migrants / Σ(preliminary state in-migrants)

5. Expand to full ASRO distribution– Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is

assigned the rate of the category as a whole

6. Smooth the in-migration proportions by age and perform final adjustment

6

State Characteristics: State Domestic Migration Flows

• Calculate final estimates of out- and in-migrants by state (in the process of estimating the population)– State out-migrants = state out-migration rate *

state population at the beginning of the time interval

– State in-migrants = state in-proportion * ∑(state out-migrants)

7

State Characteristics: Summary1. Calculate preliminary population estimates

a. Produce July 1, 2000 beginning populationb. Add births, subtract deaths, add net international

migration, and add military movementc. Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic

out-migration

2. Calculate proportions3. Use proportions to distribute estimates

a. National ASROb. State age-sex

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County Characteristics: Domestic Migration - Overview

1. County interstate migration*a. State interstate out- and in-migration

b. County interstate out-migration

c. County interstate in-migration

2. County intrastate migration*a. State intrastate migration

b. County intrastate out-migration

c. County intrastate in-migration

* will be discussed in detail in this workshop

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County Characteristics: State Interstate Out- and In-migration

• Recalculate state-level in- and out-migrants using final out-rates and in-proportions from State Characteristics Estimates processing– State out-migrants = state out-migration rate *

state population at the beginning of the time interval

– State in-migrants = state in-proportion * ∑(state out-migrants)

10

County Characteristics: County Interstate Out-migration

1. Calculate county proportions of state interstate out-migration

– Out-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ?– By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data

• No age or sex detail

2. Calculate final county interstate outs by multiplying proportions by state interstate out-migration data

11

County Characteristics: County Interstate In-migration

1. Calculate county proportions of state interstate in-migration

– In-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ?– By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data

• No age or sex detail

2. Calculate final county interstate ins by multiplying proportions by state interstate in-migration data

12

County Characteristics: State Intrastate Migration

1. Calculate a set of state intrastate migration rates– Intrastate-migration rate = # of exemptions

moving from one county to another (tally?)/ # of exemptions in the state (tally?)

– If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

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County Characteristics: State Intrastate Migration (cont.)

2. Expand to full ASRO distribution– Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is

assigned the rate of the category as a whole– Note: No age-smoothing

3. Calculate state intrastate migrants by ASRO

– State intrastate migrants = state intrastate-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval (previous vintage)

4. Note: Intrastate Outs = Intrastate Ins

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County Characteristics: County Intrastate Out-migration

1. Calculate county proportions of intrastate out-migration

– Out-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ?– By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data

• No age or sex detail

2. Calculate final county intrastate outs by multiplying proportions by state intrastate migration data

15

County Characteristics: County Intrastate In-migration

1. Calculate county proportions of intrastate in-migration

– In-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ?– By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data

• No age or sex detail

2. Calculate final county intrastate ins by multiplying proportions by state intrastate migration data