1 stata in the measurement and analysis of poverty in mexico 2009 mexican stata users group meeting...
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Stata in the measurement and analysis of poverty in Mexico
2009 Mexican Stata Users Group Meeting
April 2009, Mexico city
Creation of CONEVAL
General Law of Social Development (January 2004)Object of the Law:
“To guarantee the total exercise of the social rights established in the Political Constitution of Mexico ”
Article 81: Establishes the creation of the Council
Income Poverty Measure in Mexico (recent history)
In 2001 the Ministry of Social Development created the National Committee for Poverty Measure (CTMP).
7 academics and 4 government members: CONAPO, INEGI, Ministry of
Social Development, and Presidencia)
In 2002 The Committee proposed a methodology:http://www.sedesol.gob.mx/archivos/801588/file/Docu01.pdf
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National Council of Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL)
National Council of Evaluation of Social Development Policy
The Council is a public decentralized organism of the federal public administration with technical autonomy
The direction of the Council is given by: Six academic researchers and Executive secretary
Responsibilities:1) Establish the criteria to define, identify, and measure poverty, and2) Rule and coordinate the evaluation of the national policy of social development
Right now, CONEVAL is working on a new methodology for multidimensional poverty measure
• Why do we use Stata?
To use survey and census data and generate inputs, indicators, and other relevant information to measure, characterize, and analyze the phenomenon of poverty; and help in the decision making process to alleviate it.
• Content of presentation:
1) Inputs in poverty measurement2) Construct poverty indicators3) Poverty analysis4) Poverty mapping
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Stata and CONEVALStata and the measurement of poverty
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Income poverty, 1992 -2006National, urban and rural
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
perc
enta
ge
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006years
National UrbanRural
Source: estimates based on ENIGH 1992-2006
(food poverty line)Income poverty incidence, 1992 - 2006
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1) Inputs in poverty measurement Construction of food poverty line (example)
Adjustment coefficient:AC = consumed calories/required caloriesper household
Reference households stratum:Used to construct an observed foodbasket and determine the (food) poverty line
2006 Official (food) poverty line:Urban: $809.87 (mxn pesos)Rural: $598.70 (mxn pesos)
.8.9
11.
11.
21.
3A
djus
tmen
t co
effic
ien
t
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81Moving quintiles
Reference households Adj. coeff.Adj. coeff. = 1
Source: estimates based on ENIGH 2006
National levelAdjustment coefficient by moving quintiles
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1) Inputs in poverty measurement Non-food poverty lines: Inverse of Engel coefficient
Engel coefficient:Ratio that measures the expenses on food in households as a proportion of the expenses needed to cover:
- health and education: Capabilities line, and- public transport, clothing, and housing: Assets line
The ratio is calculated for rural and urban areas in a reference stratum
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10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
perc
enta
ge
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006years
Poverty Incidence 95% Conf. Int.95% Conf. Int.
Source: estimates based on ENIGH 1992-2006
(food poverty line)Income poverty incidence, 1992 - 2006
1) Inputs in poverty measurement Standard errors and hypothesis testing
Standard errors:# delimit ;foreach x in 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 { ;use “$data\poverty `x’.dta”, clear ;svyset upm [w=factorp], strata(est) vce(linearized) ;svy linear, level(95): mean povlp1 ;} ;
Hypothesis testing:
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2) Poverty indicatorsPoverty gap and squared poverty gap
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
FG
T(1
) x
100
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006years
National UrbanRural
Source: estimates based on ENIGH 1992-2006
(food poverty line)Poverty gap, 1992 - 2006
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
FG
T(2
) x
100
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006years
National UrbanRural
Source: estimates based on ENIGH 1992-2006
(food poverty line)Squared poverty gap, 1992 - 2006
# delimit ;gen fgt0 = cond(income<pov_line,1,0) ;gen fgt1 = cond(fgt0==1,(pov_line - income)/pov_line,0) ;gen fgt2 = cond(fgt0==1,((pov_line - income)/pov_line)^2,0) ;tabstat fgt* [w=factorp], stats(mean) by(area) format(%6.4f) ;
FGT(α) :
Foster, J., J. Greer, and E. Thorbecke (1984), “A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures”, Econometrica, vol. 52, pp. 761-765.
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2) Poverty indicatorsChild poverty indicators
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3) Poverty analysisPoverty profile
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3) Poverty analysisComponents of changes in poverty measures
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3) Poverty analysisMicrosimulation of an intervention (example)
.000
1.0
002
.000
3.0
004
.000
5.0
006
De
nsity
0 200 598.7 800 1200Income
Observed Simulated
Source: estimates based on ENIGH 2006
Rural areas, 2006Income distribution, microsimulation
0.0
001
.000
2.0
003
De
nsity
0 200 600 809.87 1200Income
Observed Simulated
Source: estimates based on ENIGH 2006
Urban areas, 2006Income distribution, microsimulation
Microsimulation :Using the income and expenditure survey of 2006, themicrosimulation consists in increasing by $180 pesos the households’ income of a public programme net
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4) Poverty mappingStata and the income poverty maps
• Poverty mapping
National level indicators often hide important differences between regions or areas. The analysis of poverty interventions consequently requires a focus on poverty information that is more geographically disaggregated.
• Stata and poverty mapping
1) Social gap index2) Estimate income poverty and a set of indicators from survey data3) Generate the same set of indicators from census data (very hard
work!)4) Validate poverty measures with other indices5) Compute changes in poverty
MethodologyPrincipal component analysis (PCA) using Census data 2005
Variables defined in the General Law of Social
Development
Index stratification: Very low Low Medium High Very high
Disaggregation levels: Entities Municipalities Localities
Components1. Population over 15 years illiterate
2. Population between 6 and 14 that doesn’t attend to school.
3. Population over 15 years with incomplete basic education
4. Households with people between 15 and 29 years with at least one member with less
than 9 years of education5. Population without health security
6. Dwellings without washing machines7. Dwellings without refrigerator
8. Dwellings with sand floor9. Dwellings without toilets
10. Dwellings without tubed water of the public network
11. Dwellings without sewage12. Dwelling without electric energy
13. Overcrowding
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4) Poverty mappingSocial gap index 2005
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Social gap indexLocalities, 2005
Social Gap Degree
Very low
High
Very high
Low
Medium
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Poverty mappingIncome poverty and other indicators
0.2
5.5
.75
1In
com
e p
over
ty F
GT
(0)
.4 .6 .8 1HDI
Municipalities Fitted values
Source: estimates based on CONEVAL and UNDP
Municipalities, 2005Income poverty and Human Development Index (HDI)
0.2
5.5
.75
1In
com
e p
over
ty F
GT
(0)
-2.5 0 2.5 5SGI
Municipalities Fitted values
Source: estimates based on CONEVAL
Municipalities, 2005Income poverty and Social gap index (SGI)
Y = 2.13 – 2.39 Xadj. R2 = .7177
Y = 0.33 + 0.17 Xadj. R2 = .8032
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RanksTotal
municipalities
[1.6 - 20.6) 522
[20.6 - 39.7) 582
[39.7 - 58.7) 577
[58.7 - 77.8) 500
[77.8 - 96.8] 272
Food poverty mapMunicipalities, 2000
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Food poverty mapMunicipalities, 2005
RanksTotal
municipalities
[0.11 - 16.9) 562
[16.9 - 33.7) 848
[33.7 - 50.5) 552
[50.5 - 67.2) 355
[67.2 - 84.0] 137
19
025
5075
100
Inco
me
pov
erty
200
5
0 25 50 75 100Income poverty 2000
Municipalities 45° line
Source: estimates based on CONEVAL
Municipalities, 2000 - 2005Changes in poverty
Changes in income povertyMunicipalities, 2000 - 2005
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Total municipalities
Significant decrease 933
Non significant increase 1474
Significant increase 46
Rank
Changes in food poverty mapMunicipalities, 2000 - 2005
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San Pablo Cuatro VenadosPopulation: 1,267 Hab. Food poverty: 81.1%Social gap degree: Very high
Santiago el PinarPopulation: 2,854 Hab. Food poverty: 84.0%Social gap degree: Very high
ChalchihuitánPopulation: 13,295 Hab.Food poverty: 81.4%Social gap degree: Very high
San Juan CancucPopulation: 24,906 Hab.Food poverty: 83.7%Social gap degree: Very high
ChanalPopulation: 9,050 Hab.Food poverty: 83.1%Social gap degree: Very high
Income poverty and Social gap indexFive municipalities with highest poverty rates and very high social gap level
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RanksTotal
municipalities
[0.00 - 2,500) 1037
[2,500 - 15,000) 1083
[15,000 - 100,000) 327
[100,000 - 172,271) 7
Food poverty map (number of population in poverty)Municipalities, 2005
• Please visit us at:www.coneval.gob.mx
• Do files available at:http://www.coneval.gob.mx/coneval2/htmls/medicion_pobreza/HomeMedicionPobreza.jsp?categorias=MED_POBREZA,MED_POBREZA-med_pob_ingre
• Surveys available at:http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/soc/sis/microdatos/enigh/default.aspx?s=est&c=14606
Authors:Héctor H. Sandoval ([email protected])
Rodrigo Aranda Balcazar ([email protected])Martín Lima ([email protected])
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CONEVAL online