1 severe weather planning andy bailey national weather service kansas city / pleasant hill, mo
TRANSCRIPT
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Severe Weather PlanningSevere Weather Planning
Andy Bailey
National Weather Service
Kansas City / Pleasant Hill, MO
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AgendaAgenda
• Importance of Weather
• NWS Overview
• What is available on the web
• Planning and Safety Rules
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Economic and Societal ImpactsEconomic and Societal Impacts
Tornadoes : $2.9 billion 44
Floods: $2.4 billion 96
Hurricanes: $6.4 billion 20
Winter Storms >$1 Billion 47
Lighning > $1 Billion 175
Hail $2.3 Billion
Annual Cost Deaths
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Weather Impacts…Weather Impacts…• Power generation costs
• Shipping costs
• Transportation costs (airlines etc)
• Building material costs
• Heating / cooling costs
• Food prices
• Insurance rates
• Employee costs
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Weather Impacts…Weather Impacts…How does weather impact your employees?
– Telecommute?
– Snow days at child’s school
– Sick days
– Missed / delayed flights
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How does weather affect your business?
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What are you doing to plan for weather?
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NWS Overview
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• Produce Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Warnings
– For All Americans– To Protect Life and Property– To Enhance the National Economy
• Data and Products:– Government Agencies– Private Sector– The Public– Global Communities
• Weather and data are becoming more important to economy and business decisions
– “The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.” USA Today, 6/19/01
What We DoWhat We Do
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What We DoWhat We Do
The NWS is the only OFFICIAL voice for issuing severe weather warnings.
Produce public, aviation, and fire weather forecasts
Provide support to other local, state and federal government agencies.
River and flood forecasts and services
Largest data collection network in the world
NOAA Weather Radio
Skywarn Spotter Program
Cooperative Observation Program
Outreach projects
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National Weather Service Offices NationwideNational Weather Service Offices Nationwide
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Background InformationBackground InformationBackground InformationBackground Information
• Lots and Lots of free NWS stuff availableLots and Lots of free NWS stuff available
• National Weather Service limits on servicesNational Weather Service limits on services
• Private Weather VendorsPrivate Weather Vendors
– $$ for interpretation and customized $$ for interpretation and customized serviceservice
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How a Forecast was MadeHow a Forecast was Made
. . 2) Forecaster looks at forecast 2) Forecaster looks at forecast guidance from several numerical guidance from several numerical weather prediction models and weather prediction models and begins making a mental image of begins making a mental image of the forecastthe forecast
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How a Forecast was MadeHow a Forecast was Made
Once the forecaster creates Once the forecaster creates the mental image of the the mental image of the forecast they then used forecast they then used to…to…
• Type the aviation forecastType the aviation forecast
• Type the public forecastType the public forecast
• Type the fire weather forecastType the fire weather forecast
The forecaster could spend The forecaster could spend up to 3 hours a day typing!up to 3 hours a day typing!
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New Forecast MethodNew Forecast Method
• Observed and computer forecast guidance acts as base forecast
• Forecaster then adjusts the gridded model forecast in a digital forecast database to best match expected forecast
• Digital forecast database is the source for traditional forecasts, and new highly customized forecasts
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Computer forecasts directly input into Graphical Forecast Editing
Software
Computer forecasts directly input into Graphical Forecast Editing
Software
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Forecasters edit gridded digital data
Forecasters edit gridded digital data
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Not Just TemperatureNot Just Temperature
• Temp
• Dewpoint
• RH
• Wind
• Sky
• Weather
• Probability of Precip
• Snow amounts
• Rain amounts
• Numerous Fire Weather Parameters
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Formats AvailableFormats Available
• Free in GIS integratable “grids”
• XML Web Service
• Graphics
nws.noaa.gov/ndfd
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Every Local NWS Office has an extensive web pageEvery Local NWS Office has an extensive web page
• Forecasts
• Radar
• Climate
• Warnings
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Getting Your ForecastGetting Your Forecast
Click on your location
Available in other formats
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Forecast in Yet Another Format…Forecast in Yet Another Format…
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Interpreting Radar DataInterpreting Radar DataHow Radar works
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NWS Kansas City/Pleasant HillNWS Kansas City/Pleasant HillWSR-88D CapabilitiesWSR-88D Capabilities
• ReflectivityReflectivity
– ““Hot” colors means more Hot” colors means more intense echoes (heavy intense echoes (heavy rain/hail)rain/hail)
– Simply a measure of Simply a measure of “reflected” energy“reflected” energy
• Velocity Velocity
– ““Warm” colorsWarm” colors -Winds -Winds blowing blowing away from the radaraway from the radar
– ““Cool” colorsCool” colors – –Winds blowing Winds blowing toward the radartoward the radar
• ReflectivityReflectivity
– ““Hot” colors means more Hot” colors means more intense echoes (heavy intense echoes (heavy rain/hail)rain/hail)
– Simply a measure of Simply a measure of “reflected” energy“reflected” energy
• Velocity Velocity
– ““Warm” colorsWarm” colors -Winds -Winds blowing blowing away from the radaraway from the radar
– ““Cool” colorsCool” colors – –Winds blowing Winds blowing toward the radartoward the radar
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Radar Precipitation EstimatesRadar Precipitation Estimates
Overestimate Causes:Overestimate Causes:•Hail ContaminationHail Contamination•Evaporation in subEvaporation in sub
cloud layercloud layer
Underestimate Causes:Underestimate Causes:•Tropical-like regimesTropical-like regimes
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Products to Anticipate Severe WeatherProducts to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO HWO
– Provides an outlook up to seven days out to Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weatherthe potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado WatchSvr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
– Provides a few hours notice that conditions Provides a few hours notice that conditions are condusive to severe weather should are condusive to severe weather should storms developstorms develop
• Warnings Warnings
– Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminentimminent
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• Hazardous Weather Outlook
– Focus on expected threats.
– Seven day outlook for severe weather.
– Issued twice daily 6 a.m. and 1 p.m.
– Broadcast continuously on NWR.
• Hazardous Weather Outlook
– Focus on expected threats.
– Seven day outlook for severe weather.
– Issued twice daily 6 a.m. and 1 p.m.
– Broadcast continuously on NWR.
Anticipating Severe WeatherAnticipating Severe WeatherAnticipating Severe WeatherAnticipating Severe Weather
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Products to Anticipate Severe WeatherProducts to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO HWO
– Provides an outlook up to seven days out to Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weatherthe potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado WatchSvr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
– Provides a few hours notice that conditions Provides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should are conducive to severe weather should storms developstorms develop
• Warnings Warnings
– Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminentimminent
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTERN KANSAS MOST OF MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000 PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTERN KANSAS MOST OF MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000 PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Severe Weather WatchSevere Weather Watch
WATCH
Conditions are favorable for a severe weather event in or near the watch area
Watches are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods and Floods
WATCH
Conditions are favorable for a severe weather event in or near the watch area
Watches are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods and Floods
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Products to Anticipate Severe WeatherProducts to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO HWO
– Provides an outlook up to seven days out to Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weatherthe potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado WatchSvr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
– Provides a few hours notice that conditions Provides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should are conducive to severe weather should storms developstorms develop
• Warnings Warnings
– Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminentimminent
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Severe Weather WarningSevere Weather Warning
WARNING
A severe weather event is imminent or occurring in the Warned area
Warnings are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods, and Floods
WARNING
A severe weather event is imminent or occurring in the Warned area
Warnings are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods, and Floods
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO807 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
* UNTIL 845 PM CST
* AT 804 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER. DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR… HOUSTONIA BY 815 PM CST.
THE TOWNS OF EMMA…NESLON AND BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEN AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 3899 9365 3885 9359 3887 9293 3913 9295
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO807 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
* UNTIL 845 PM CST
* AT 804 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER. DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR… HOUSTONIA BY 815 PM CST.
THE TOWNS OF EMMA…NESLON AND BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEN AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 3899 9365 3885 9359 3887 9293 3913 9295
Warned AreaWarned Area
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County-Based VS Storm-Based WarningsCounty-Based VS Storm-Based Warnings
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How Walmart Uses PolygonsHow Walmart Uses Polygons
Walmart EOC uses GIS to overlay polygons onto a store location map
Walmart EOC then calls individual stores affected by warnings alerting them of the threat
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Storm Prediction Center Website Storm Prediction Center Website www.spc.noaa.govwww.spc.noaa.gov
Good place for Good place for large scale outlook large scale outlook maps, and technical maps, and technical discussions as to discussions as to severe weather severe weather threats across the threats across the country.country.
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How To Receive WarningsHow To Receive Warnings• NOAA Weather RadioNOAA Weather Radio
– Nationwide networkNationwide network
– Alarm FeatureAlarm Feature
– Portable devices availablePortable devices available
– Programmable to customize Programmable to customize by location or warning type by location or warning type desireddesired
– Equip Equip everyevery facility with one facility with one
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Overall Planning/SafetyOverall Planning/SafetyBefore the season begins…Before the season begins…
• Create your weather safety plan and train Create your weather safety plan and train employees/volunteersemployees/volunteers
During the season…During the season…
• Maintain your situational awarenessMaintain your situational awareness
• Assign a person or position to be the weather watcherAssign a person or position to be the weather watcher
• If thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to communicate If thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to communicate appropriate threats and safety infoappropriate threats and safety info
• Practice, Practice, PracticePractice, Practice, Practice
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Threats From ThunderstormsThreats From Thunderstorms
• The biggest threat from thunderstorms The biggest threat from thunderstorms at outdoor events is lightning. at outdoor events is lightning.
• Other risks include Hail…Other risks include Hail…
– straight-line winds >80 mphstraight-line winds >80 mph
– possibly a tornadopossibly a tornado
– flooding in multiuse areasflooding in multiuse areas
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Threats From Thunderstorms-LightningThreats From Thunderstorms-Lightning
• Kills more people than tornadoes
• Dangerous at great distances from parent storm
• 30-30 rule
– If the time between seeing lightning and hearing thunder is less than 30 seconds seek shelter immediately
– Don’t emerge from shelter until 30 minutes after last thunder is heard-many deaths occur after the storm has passed
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Threats From Thunderstorms-HailThreats From Thunderstorms-Hail
• If you event has thousands or even hundreds of attendees, the potential for numerous injuries is high.
• If you follow the 30/30 lightning rule, hail should not be an issue.
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Questions to PonderQuestions to Ponder
• Do you have a severe weather plan for work and home? (if so do you practice it?)
• How can you integrate weather preparedness and data into your companies operations?
• How can your business perform better, and keep employees and customers safe using weather data?
• What’s stopping you from taking action?
