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1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

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Page 1: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

1

SEE Public Agenda Survey

January-February 2002Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS

NetworkMain findings of the quantitative

survey

14 March 2002

Page 2: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

2

Objectives

• The aim is to conduct a research of public agenda in nine countries and territories in South East Europe, namely Bosnia and Herzegovina - Federation BH, Bosnia and Herzegovina - Republika Srpska, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Romania.

• The purposes of this base line study of public agenda in the region are:To gain information on people’s attitudes, fears and expectation in the main

issues that concern their ongoing life and their future;To compare the findings between countries and territories;To draw the conclusions relevant for policy making and strategies for regional

development and democratization;To set up a database for a longer term public agenda tracking.

Page 3: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

3

Public Agenda

• In the current meaning:

– Public = sum of persons entitled to vote (usually 18 years and over)

– Public Agenda = Issues, fears and concerns regarding the state, society and personal position within them

• PUBLIC AGENDA MAIN ISSUES:

– Governing the state

– Economic bases of the social and individual life

– Violence, crime, personal security

– Politics

– Corruption

– Environmental issues

– International institutions

– Domestic institutions

Page 4: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

4

Public Agenda Tracking

• A public opinion poll, conducted with the same questionnaire on independent national representative samples at regular intervals (usually 1-3 months)– Euro Barometer in Europe and associated countries

(www.europa.eu.int)

– BOP-in Romania (www.imas.ro)

– SMMRI Omnibus – PULS Omnibus

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5

Organisational structure• Financed by the Norwegian Foreign Affairs

Ministry and International IDEA

• Incepted and supported by International IDEA

• Driven by local researchers and think tanks who have organized themselves as the South East Europe Democracy Support Network - SEEDS

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List of research institutes

• Research Area Institute Pop/mill Sample

• Bulgaria VITOSHA 8.5 1,148

• B&H - Federation PULS 2.4 610

• B&H - R.Srpska SMMRI/B&H 1.5 1,034

• Croatia PULS 4.3 1,010

• Kosovo IS Pristina 2.2 1,017

• Macedonia SMMRI/Skopje 1.9 1,031

• Montenegro SMMRI 0.6 1,012

• Romania IMAS 22.5 1,553

• Serbia SMMRI 7.8 1,523

Page 7: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

7

South Eastern Europe

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8

OPTIMISM vs. PESSIMISMOPTIMISM vs. PESSIMISM

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9

• Kosovo and Serbia show greatest optimism both in relation to one year ago and in the view of the future

• Bulgaria seems to see the present and the future mostly in dark light

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10

Right direction of the country

In the right direction

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Kosovo

Serbia

Montenegro

Romania

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

Bulgaria

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11

Personal economic situation: worse and better than one year ago

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Bulgaria

Montenegro

Macedonia

Romania

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

B&H - Federation

Croatia

Kosovo

WorseBetter

worse

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12

Personal economic situation: satisfaction with the current level

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Kosovo

Croatia

Serbia

B&H - Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

Macedonia

Romania

Bulgaria satisfaction

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13

Personal economic situation: one year to come

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

Kosovo

Serbia

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Croatia

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

Romania

Bulgaria

Better

Worse

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14

Personal economic situation : 5 year expectations

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Kosovo

Serbia

Croatia

Macedonia

Montenegro

B&H - Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Romania

Bulgaria

Better

Worse

Page 15: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

15

PUBLIC ISSUESPUBLIC ISSUES

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16

Public Agenda:National Issues

• The list with national issues on the public agenda was drafted during the Oslo Meeting (May 2000), and checked during the qualitative phase. Almost all issues look to be important for the SEE public, with notable differences.

• However a large gap between the political, intellectual and media elite - as they were captured during the qualitative phase - and the public are to be underlined. The elite is more focused on ethnic issues, historical disputes, and philosophical analysis, whilst the public is more concerned with unemployment, corruption, poverty, inflation and family income.

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Public Agenda Quantitative Measurement

• Unemployment• Corruption• Poverty• Crime• Inflation• Family income• Stability of the State• Drug and alcohol abuse

• Jobs for our children

• My country’s acceptance into EU and/or NATO

• Legal system

• Ethnic conflicts

• Lack of morality

• Welfare system

• Inadequate bureaucracy

“There are many problems facing our country today. I'm going to hand you a card that lists some. Please pick and rank what you believe are the three most important issues”.

Page 18: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

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• The three most important issues for SEE are: – unemployment, – poverty and – corruption.

Page 19: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

19

Public Issues: Summary

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Public Issues: UnemploymentUnemployment

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

B&H - Federation

Kosovo

Croatia

Bulgaria

Macedonia

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

Montenegro

Romania

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21

Public Issues: CorruptionCorruption

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Romania

B&H - R. Srpska

B&H - Federation

Montenegro

Macedonia

Serbia

Croatia

Kosovo

Bulgaria

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Public Issues: PovertyPoverty

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Bulgaria

Romania

Macedonia

B&H - Federation

Montenegro

Kosovo

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

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23

Public Issues: Crime

Crime

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

Bulgaria

B&H - Federation

Kosovo

Croatia

Serbia

Macedonia

Romania

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24

Public Issues: Inflation

Rising prices/Inflation

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Romania

Bulgaria

Serbia

Montenegro

Kosovo

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

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25

Public Issues: Family Income

Family income

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Serbia

Bulgaria

Romania

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Croatia

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

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PERSONAL FEARSPERSONAL FEARS

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27

Public Agenda: Personal Fears

• Personal fears (or potential threats to the personal life) are usually in the field of personal health, job security, future of children, pensions etc. When personal fears are almost the same as national issues, the public believe that their personal lives are profoundly affected by national policies.

• That is the case in all SEE countries.

“What do you fear the most in the present?”Open answer question-top of mind answer.

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28

Personal Fears: Summary

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Personal Fears: Poverty

Poverty, bad living standards, misery, hunger

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Romania

B&H - Federation

Serbia

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

Macedonia

Bulgaria

Kosovo

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30

Personal Fears: Unemployment

Unemployment, lack of jobs

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Croatia

B&H - Federation

Bulgaria

Serbia

Kosovo

Romania

Macedonia

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

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31

Personal Fears: Bad Political Situation

Bad political situation

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

Serbia

Romania

Macedonia

Croatia

Kosovo

B&H - Federation

Bulgaria

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32

Personal Fears: WarWar, conflicts, terrorism, disasters, desintegration

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Macedonia

Kosovo

Bulgaria

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

Romania

B&H - Federation

Croatia

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33

Personal Fears: CrimeCriminality, crime, violence

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Kosovo

B&H - Federation

Bulgaria

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

Romania

Montenegro

Macedonia

Page 34: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

34

INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS

Page 35: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

35

KOSOVO

ROMANIA

B&H - FEDERATION MONTENEGR

O

CROATIA

SERBIA

B&H – REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA

MACEDONIABULGARIA

GENERAL TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS

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36

TRUST IN DOMESTIC TRUST IN DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS

Page 37: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

37

• Most trusted institutions in SEE are the Church, Army and Universities

• Parliaments, governments and courts are among the least trusted institutions

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38

Church

Army

Universities

Presidency

Police

Mass media

Private entreprises

Government

Courts

Local authorities

Parliament

NGOs

Trade Unionc

Bosnia

Bulgaria

Croatia

Kosovo

Macedonia

Montenegro

R. Srpska

Serbia

Romania

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39

Trust in Institutions: ChurchTrust in Church

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Romania

B&H - R. Srpska

Kosovo

Serbia

Croatia

Bulgaria

Macedonia

B&H -Federation

Montenegro

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40

Trust in Institutions: PresidencyTrust in Presidency

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Kosovo

Bulgaria

Romania

Serbia

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Macedonia

B&H -Federation

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41

Trust in Institutions: Parliament

Trust in Parliament

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Kosovo

Romania

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Croatia

Serbia

Bulgaria

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

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42

Trust in Institutions: Government

Trust in Government

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Kosovo

Romania

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Bulgaria

Serbia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

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43

Trust in Institutions: Local Authorities

Trust in Local authorities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Kosovo

Romania

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

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44

Trust in Institutions: CourtsTrust in Courts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Kosovo

Romania

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

Bulgaria

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45

Trust in Institutions: PoliceTrust in Police

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Kosovo

Romania

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

B&H - R. Srpska

Bulgaria

Croatia

Montenegro

Serbia

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46

Trust in Institutions: ArmyTrust in Army

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Kosovo

Romania

Macedonia

Serbia

B&H - R. Srpska

Bulgaria

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Montenegro

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47

Trust in Institutions: Trade Unions

Trust in Trade Unions

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Kosovo

Romania

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Serbia

Macedonia

Bulgaria

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48

Trust in Institutions: NGOsTrust in NGOs

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Kosovo

Macedonia

Montenegro

Serbia

Romania

Croatia

B&H -Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Bulgaria

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49

Trust in Institutions: Universities

Trust in Universities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Kosovo

Romania

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Montenegro

Bulgaria

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50

Trust in Institutions: Summary

Page 51: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

51

STEPS FORWARD...STEPS FORWARD...

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52

Domestic Economy vs. International Integration

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60Domesticeconomyoriented(having astrongeconomy)

Internationalinstitutionsoriented(joiningEU,NATO orboth)

Page 53: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

53

TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL PERSONALITIESPERSONALITIES

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54

Kofi AnnanAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Macedonia

Kosovo

Serbia

B&H -R. Srpska

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Romania

Bulgaria

Trust Awareness

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55

George RobertsonAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Serbia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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56

George W. BushAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Serbia

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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57

Vladimir PutinAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Kosovo

B&H -Federation

Serbia

Croatia

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Montenegro

Romania

Bulgaria

Trust Awareness

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58

Romano ProdiAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Montenegro

Croatia

Kosovo

B&H -Federation

Romania

Bulgaria

Trust Awareness

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59

INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS

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60

• The four most trusted institutions in SEE are EU, UN, the World Bank and NATO

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61

TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

EU

UN

WB

NATO

ICTY

IMF

OSCE

WTO

SPSE B&H - FEDERATION

BULGARIA

CROATIA

KOSOVO

MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

B&H - R. SRPSKA

ROMANIA

SERBIA

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62

EUAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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63

UN Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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64

WBAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Montenegro

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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65

NATOAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Serbia

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Montenegro

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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66

ICTY (The Hague Tribunal)Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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67

IMF Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

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68

OSCE Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Serbia

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awarness

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69

STABILITY PACTSTABILITY PACT

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70

Stability Pact for SEEAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Serbia

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Kosovo

Romania

Bulgaria

Trust Awareness

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71

SPSEE AWARENESS - TRUST

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72

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSINTERNATIONAL RELATIONSCooperation & ThreatsCooperation & Threats

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73

COUNTRIES PREFERRED FOR COUNTRIES PREFERRED FOR COOPERATIONCOOPERATION

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74

Germany

Italy

Sweeden

Great Britain

France

Slovenia

Norway

United States

Hungary

Greece

Turkey

Russia

Croatia

Romania

B&H - Federation

Montenegro

Macedonia

Bulgaria

Serbia

B&H - R. Srpska

Albania

Kosovo

B&H - FEDERATION

BULGARIA

CROATIA

KOSOVO

MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

B&H - R. SRPSKA

ROMANIA

SERBIA

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75

COUNTRIES PERCEIVED AS A COUNTRIES PERCEIVED AS A THREATTHREAT

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76

Albania

Kosovo

Serbia

United States

B&H - R. Srpska

Russia

Croatia

B&H - Federation

Turkey

Macedonia

Montenegro

Great Britain

Greece

Germany

Hungary

France

Bulgaria

Romania

Italy

Slovenia

Norway

Sweeden

B&H - FEDERATION

BULGARIA

CROATIA

KOSOVO

MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

B&H - R. SRPSKA

ROMANIA

SERBIA

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77

MASS MEDIAMASS MEDIA

Page 78: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

78

Trust in Mass MediaTrust in Mass Media

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

B&H -Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Macedonia

Croatia

Serbia

Montenegro

Page 79: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

79

Perceived Mass Media Behaviour

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Croatia

Bulgaria

Serbia

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Romania

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

Kosovo

Reporting the truth Always/often Reporting the truth Sometimes/never

Page 80: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

80

Mass Media: Perceived Independence

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

Macedonia

Croatia

B&H -R. Srpska

Montenegro

B&H - Federation

Serbia

Kosovo

Romania

Bulgaria

Independent Non-independent

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81

APPRECIATION OF PUBLIC APPRECIATION OF PUBLIC SERVICESSERVICES

Page 82: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

82

PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEMHealth system

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Bulgaria

Serbia

Romania

B&H -R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

Croatia

Montenegro

Kosovo

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83

PENSION FUNDSPension Fund

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Kosovo

B&H -R. Srpska

Bulgaria

Romania

B&H -Federation

Serbia

Croatia

Macedonia

Montenegro

Page 84: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

84

EDUCATION SYSTEMEducation system

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Bulgaria

Serbia

Romania

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Croatia

Montenegro

Kosovo

Page 85: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

85

HEATING

Heating

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Kosovo

Bulgaria

Montenegro

B&H -R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Romania

Macedonia

Serbia

Croatia

Page 86: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

86

WATER SUPPLYWater

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Kosovo

Romania

Macedonia

Montenegro

B&H -R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Bulgaria

Croatia

Serbia

Page 87: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

87

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATIONPublic transportation

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Serbia

Montenegro

B&H -R. Srpska

Romania

Croatia

Macedonia

B&H -Federation

Page 88: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

88

ELECTRICITYElectricity

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Kosovo

Montenegro

Serbia

Bulgaria

Macedonia

Croatia

Romania

B&H -Federation

B&H -R. Srpska

Page 89: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

89

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

Transport infrastructure

0 10 20 30 40 50

Bulgaria

Serbia

Romania

Kosovo

B&H -R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Montenegro

Macedonia

Croatia

Page 90: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

90

SOCIAL CARESocial care

0 10 20 30 40 50

B&H -R. Srpska

Bulgaria

B&H -Federation

Serbia

Romania

Macedonia

Montenegro

Kosovo

Croatia

Page 91: 1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

91

POLICEPolice

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Serbia

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Romania

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Kosovo


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