1 school of oriental & african studies mdg1 & food security: critical challenges andrew...
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School of Oriental & African Studies
MDG1 & food security: critical challenges
Andrew Dorward
School of Oriental and African Studies, University of LondonLeverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture &
[email protected] Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs
30th November 2011
Outline
MDG1 elements & progress Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth Current challenges Action
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The MDG1 targets
TARGET 1.A Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of
people whose income is less than $1 a dayTARGET 1.B
Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people
TARGET 1.C Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of
people who suffer from hunger
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% People living on less than $1.25: 1990, 2005
430 Novermber 2011
% Under-5 children underweight : 1990, 2009
530 Novermber 2011
Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth:context
Stages of development & growth: Importance of food in expenditure (& earnings) of poor
countries & poor people Importance of land, labour & capital in poor countries’
& poor people’ economies Importance of food production in using land & labour Importance of food deficit farmers?
Nature of growth land productivity & labour demand, in tradables &
staples Cross sectoral linkages Agricultural potential Other opportunities: minerals & trade (coastal countries)
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Increased productivity of national & poor people’s labour
Increased productivity of national & poor people’s land
Higher incomes: farmers & farm labourers Cheaper food for the urban & rural poor raises
their real incomes Stimulus for demand for local goods & services Surplus capital & labour for other sectors Exports & import substitution Livestock & horticulture – supply & demand
growth Nutrition & health benefits
Drivers
Supporters
Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth:processes & special contributions
International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs
International grain price indices, 2005-2011
30 November 2011 8International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs
A system tightened too
far?
Steve Wiggins (2009)
500,000,000
700,000,000
900,000,000
1,100,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,700,000,000
1,900,000,000
2,100,000,000
2,300,000,000
2,500,000,000
1961
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2005
2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450World Cereals Prod, tonnes
Cereals, kg/cap
1.01% pa
0.97% pa
2.84% pa
PeakPeak kg/capkg/cap
International commodity price indices, 2005-2011
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Price effects: undernourishment
1130 Novermber 2011
Asia
Africa
International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs
Country resiliences to rising food prices
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National / household food buyers
National / household food sellers and/or rising non-food incomes
Causes of the current spikes
Volatility: price
spikes
Stakeholder
stocking
Financial speculati
on
Production lags
Loss of
land
Oil prices
Population growth
Economic growth
Rising deman
d
Policy changes
Biofuels
Reduced subsidie
s
Reduced R&D
Oil prices
Biofuels
Climate change
Water scarcit
y
Environmental changes
Higher prices Low
stocks
Stagnant productivi
ty
Falling supply
Weather shocks
Waste etc.
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Actions Address global constraints on food production
investment in research, improved efficiency, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, integrated soil fertility management, water management, climate change mitigation & adaptation, biofuels policies, speculation?
Specific country & vulnerable group measures to improve food productivity
research, roads, extension, input & output markets, ?input subsidies (be careful!), cross sectoral links, land policies, integrated soil fertility management, water
hungry gap measures Specific country & vulnerable group measures to improve
affordable food access Transparent & predictable trade policies; safety nets;
insurance?, market & early warning information Monitor real incomes for vulnerable groups: seasonal wage
to food price ratio 30 November 2011 14International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs
Questions?
Examples of problems? Examples of successful & unsuccessful responses? Lessons?
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Sources
UN (2011) The Millennium Development Goals Report & Statistical Annex.
IFPRI, Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe. 2011 Global Hunger Index - The Challenge of Hunger: Taming Price Spikes and Excessive Food Price Volatility
FAO (2011) The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2011. How does international price volatility affect domestic economies and food security?
World Bank Prospects Commodity Markets http://go.worldbank.org/4ROCCIEQ50
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increased / constant per capita food availability
releasing labour for production of other goods and services
falling food prices relative to wages/income,
increased income available for purchase of non food goods &
services
COORDINATION processes, scale, locations, populations,
timing
higher labour productivity in
food production
Energy, materials, capital, technology,
knowledge, institutions
AGRI-CULTURAL REVOLUT-
IONS
higher labour productivity,
other goods & services
increased / constant per capita ‘other’ availability
releasing labour for production of
other goods & services
falling ‘other’ prices relative to wages/income,
increased income available for purchase
of goods & services
Energy, materials, capital, technology, knowledge,
institutions
COORDINATION processes, scale, locations, populations,
timing
INDUSTRIAL, SERVICE, KNOWLEDGE REVOLUT-
IONS
Increased demand for & supply of non-food goods
& services
Later (?) Negative feedbacksNatural resource use,Waste, Environmental
degradation, Biodiversity loss, Health? Inequity? ?
Globalisation?
Earlier(?) Positive feedbacksCapital, Technology,
Knowledge, Health? Poverty reduction, Globalisation?
HungerFood deficit farmersLand