1 population, rising expectations, aging, mobility & employment presented at the general...
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Population, Rising Expectations, Aging, Mobility & Employment
Presented at the General Assembly of the World Academy of Art & Science,
Zagreb, Croatia, November 18-20, 2005
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Population Blow-up
• Driving force for development is social & psychological, not biological or environmental
• The blow-up marks the transition from quantitative to qualitative development.
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Social Development Process
“Life evolves by consciousness. Consciousness evolves by organization.”
Sri Aurobindo
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Social Development Cycle
Subconscious Will of the Social Collective
Conscious Aspiration & Initiative of Pioneering
Individuals
Social Organization by Collective to Support &
Replicate Initiatives
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Some Evolutionary Organizations
• Language
• Military
• Religion
• Money
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Social Development Spiral
Physical
Mental
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Transition from Physical to Mental Evolution
Physical replication Qualitative enhancement
Heredity Learning
Survival-orientation Rising aspirations
Social stability Rapid development
Material resources Knowledge resources
Collective conformity Emergence of Individuality
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Mental Organizations are Evolving Rapidly
• Education
• Science
• Technology
• Internet
• Values– Freedom– Respect for the individual
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Source of all these organizations is the human mind, human
resourcefulness.
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Aspirations are Rising Rapidly
• Demographic Revolution coincides with a “Revolution of Rising Expectations”
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Impact of Rising Expectations
• Youth want and demand more• Quest for greater freedom • Consumerism• Education madness in Asia • Urge for upward social mobility• Smaller families resulting in shrinking of population in
industrialized countries• Impetus to mobility & immigration • Education, training and social attitudes not changing fast
enough to keep pace• Source of social unrest & stimulus to terrorism
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Impact on Employment
• Higher job expectations
• Indian youth with a little school education refuse farm work
• US youth shun factory work
• Skill-job mismatches
• High youth unemployment
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Aging in High Income Countries
• More effective social organization supports longer life expectancy
• Over 60 years population will increase from 8% to 19% by 2050
• Number of children will drop by 33%
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Aging of Europe (EU25)
• Population over 65 years2000 71 million2030 110 million
• Over 65 to working age pop2000 23%2030 39%
• Working age population 2000 303 million 2030 280 million
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Impact of Aging on Employment
• Significant labor and skill shortages will develop in OECD countries unless immigration policies are dramatically liberalized or large numbers of manufacturing and service jobs are shifted overseas.
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Aging and Immigration (EU15)
• Shortage of workers spurs demand for workers from lower income countries.
• UN study released in March 2000 estimates EU15 would have to accept 150 million new immigrants over the next 25 years in order to maintain present levels of working and tax-paying population.
• Another estimate projects net inflow of 68 million.
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USA
• By 2013, labour-force growth = 0
• Forecasts shortage of 17 million working
age people by 2020.
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Japan
• 33 million people aged 65 or more within a decade
• UN estimates Japan would need to admit 600,000 immigrants annually for the next 50 years in order to maintain the size of its working population at the 1995 level.
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China vs. India in 2020
• China -- shortage of 10 million
• India -- surplus of 47 million
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Population living outside country of birth
• 1985 – 105 million
• 2000 – 175 million (3% of world pop)
• 67% increase during period when total world population only increased by 26%.
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International Migration
• To USA averaging about 1 million/year
• 2 million per year net gain to most-
developed regions over the next 50 years.
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UK Migration for Employment
• 1.44 million graduates left UK for higher paid jobs in US, Canada, Australia and EU
• 1.26 million graduates immigrated to UK in seach of better jobs.
• 16% UK graduates migrate vs. 3.4% in France (lowest)
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Migration from Developing to OECD Countries 1990-2000
• Migrants to OECD with some college education
almost doubled to about 12 million in 10 years
• 25-50% of college-educated of Ghana,
Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda, Nicaragua and El
Salvador live in OECD.
• 80%+ for Haiti and Jamaica
• 5%> for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia
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India’s Reverse Brain Drain
• Non-residents spur transfer of technology and business practices.
• Non-residents spur growth of business back home.
• Exit of talents raises domestic salary scales.
• Non-residents are returning home.• Non-resident remittances are major source
of investment -- $8 billion a year.
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Conclusions
• Rising expectations & rapid advances in social organization are driving the slow down in population growth & the aging of the population resulting in labor and skill shortages in OECD countries and opening up opportunities for migration and employment for developing countries.
• This phenomena marks the transition from the physical to the mental stage of social evolution.