行政院會簡報資料:報1 國發會 當前經濟情勢(o=m)
TRANSCRIPT
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%
( )IMF7GI102015*GI
1. IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 4, 2016
2. IHS Global Insight Inc., World Overview, Nov. 15, 2016
IMF IHS Global Insight
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
3.2 3.1 (3.1) 3.4 (3.4) 2.7 2.4 (2.4) 2.8 (2.8)
2.1 1.6 (1.8) 1.8 (1.8) 2.1 1.5 (1.5) 1.7 (1.7)
2.6 1.6 (2.2) 2.2 (2.5) 2.6 1.5 (1.4) 2.2 (2.2)
2.0 1.7 (1.6) 1.5 (1.4) 2.0 1.6 (1.6) 1.4 (1.4)
0.6 0.5 (0.3) 0.6 (0.1) 0.6 0.6 (0.6) 0.7 (0.7)
* 4.0 4.2 (4.1) 4.6 (4.6) 3.9 3.9 (3.9) 4.5 (4.5)
6.9 6.6 (6.6) 6.2 (6.2) 6.9 6.6 (6.6) 6.3 (6.3)
()
2016
2017
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5
()
NAFTATPP
1 12 2017
12
ECB 2015 3 800 (2017) 3
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6
4.04
0.57
-0.80 -0.89 -0.29
0.70 2.06
-8.00
-4.00
0.00
4.00
8.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 3 2.06% 8 1.99% 0.07 saar 4.54% 0.23% 3 3.57% 5.14% 0.35
2.37% 3.24% 4 2.41
()
%
YoY
20161028
2016
Q1 Q2 Q3
GDP -0.29 0.70 2.06
1.80 0.27 2.77
2.53 1.23 2.37
5.47 1.96 3.59
-2.55 -3.10 3.24
- - -
-4.04 0.63 3.57
(-) -1.49 0.21 5.14
%
GDP YoY
SAAR
2015 2016
2.41
-0.35
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7
10
10 2016117
9.1%7-10 9
10 267.5 9.4% 9
15.3%
15.3
18.2
14.8 12.9
1.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
%
()
10
9.4 7.8
3.5 6.8
14.9 13.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0%
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()
%
1-9 0.1% 5 7
9 5.0%
20.7%
1-9 1.9% 2.8%
9 2.2%
5.3%
20161024
20161-9
-0.1 -0.02 3.3 0.9 0.2 -3.1 -11.2 -6.0
9 5.0 6.5 20.7 0.4 3.0 0.9 -5.1 -15.6
20161-9 1.9 5.2 4.3 2.8
9 2.2 6.1 16.3 5.3
%
20161024
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9
1.67
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9
1-9 3.94% 0.2
9 3.99% 0.09
0.10 3.93% 0.02
1-9 1.859 1.67 0.1
()
= /
%
3.99
3.5
4.0
4.5
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9
2015 2016
()
2015 2016
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10
0
50
100
150
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9
()
2016 10 CPI
2016118
+ 1.70%
2016 1-10 CPI 1.30%
5.18%
10 CPI 1.70% CPI 0.96%
5.24%
24.2%7.83%
0.32% 10.37% 9.65%
2015 2016
-0.32
0.19
0.32
0.74
0.81
2.24
5.24
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
%
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()
2016 9 2
23
7
3.9%5.0%
14 15 15
14 14 16 16
17
20 20
23
25
23
11
22
9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2015 2016
23
17
0
20161027
2016/9
101.67
2016/9
102.72
96
100
104
9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9
2014 2015 2016
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12
2016 0.52%~1.3% 2017 1.2%~1.88%
( ); * 10283 2.06%
()
2016
2017 1 2 3 4
(105.8.19) 1.22 (1.06) -0.29 0.70 1.99* 2.38 1.88
(105.11.10) 1.17 (0.77) -0.29 0.70 2.06 2.11 1.65
(105.10.20) 1.03 (0.84) -0.29 0.70 1.15 2.46 1.81 (1.80)
(105.9.30) 1.1 (0.9) -0.29 0.70 1.80 2.08 1.8
(105.9.20) 0.8 (0.8) - - - - 1.2
(105.6.29) 0.52 (1.74) -0.68 1.14 1.01 0.57 -
(105.6.17) 0.92 (2.06) -0.73 0.45 1.73 2.14 -
Global Insight (105.11.15) 1.2 (1.2) -0.7 1.0 2.1 2.3 1.7 (1.8)
IMF (105.10.4) 1.0 (1.5) - - - - 1.7 (2.2)
ADB (105.9.27) 0.9 (1.1) - - - - 1.5 (1.6)
(105.9.8) 1.0 (1.06) - - - - 1.5
(105.8.3) 1.3 (1.8) - - - - -
(105.8.1) 0.7 (2.0) - - - - 1.4
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13
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TPP
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5,000
NAFTATPP 35%
(Dodd-Frank Act)
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16
(1/5)
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(2/5)
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(3/5)
()
()
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(4/5)
TPP TPP TPP
TPP APEC TPP
FTAAP
TPP
WTO
FTA
TIFA(BIA)
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20
(5/5)
(IOT)
(turnkey)
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21
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3
1.2%~1.88%
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