1 modeling for ocean observatories: the orion program lewis m. rothstein graduate school of...

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Modeling for Ocean Observatories:

The ORION ProgramLewis M. Rothstein

Graduate School of Oceanography

University of Rhode Island

Environmental Observatories Modeling WorkshopMay 16 &17 - Tucson, AZ

Sponsored by the National Science Foundation

GRAND CHALLENGES OF THE FUTURE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING

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Outline The ORION Program - An Overview

Scope, context, objectives, administrative structure

Role of Models in ORION Purposes for, and types of, models; methodologies used Recommendations from the ORION Modeling Committee

Immediate Needs/Priorities & Opportunities Bottlenecks & investment remedies New opportunities for modeling created by ORION

Inside and outside the discipline

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The ORION Program:An Overview

http://www.orionprogram.org

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The ORION Program• The Ocean Research Interactive Observatory Networks (ORION) program focuses the science, technology, education and outreach of an emerging network of science drivenscience driven ocean observing systems.

• NSF’s Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) provides access to the basic infrastructure required to make sustained, long-term and adaptive measurements in the oceans.

• The research-focusedresearch-focused observatories enabled by the OOI will be networked, becoming an integral part of the proposed Integrated and Sustained Ocean Observing System (IOOS); an operationally-focused national system that will, in turn be a key U.S. contribution to the international Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS).

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• OOI provided infrastructure for ORION includes • cables, buoys, deployment platforms, moorings • junction boxes (required for power and two-way data

communication to a wide variety of sensors at the sea surface, in the water column, and at or beneath the seafloor)

• unified project management • data dissemination and archiving • education and outreach activities

The ORION Program

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• Goals of a fully operational research observatory:

• Continuous observations (resolving seconds-decades)• Multi-scale spatial measurements (millimeters-kilometers)• Sustained operations during storms & other severe conditions• Real-time or near-real-time data• Two-way transmission of data and remote instrument control• Power delivery to sensors between sea surface and seafloor• Standard “Plug-n-Play” sensor interface protocol• Autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) dock for data download/battery

recharge• Access to deployment and maintenance vehicles• Facilities for instrument maintenance and calibration• Data management system that makes data publicly available• Effective education and outreach program

The ORION Program

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Coastal ObservatoryCoastal Observatory

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Regional Cabled Observatory (RCO)Regional Cabled Observatory (RCO)

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Seafloor Geophysical Regional Observatory with Seafloor Geophysical Regional Observatory with Seismometers and a Variety of Geodetic InstrumentsSeismometers and a Variety of Geodetic Instruments

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Forest of vertical profiling moorings and borehole observatoriesForest of vertical profiling moorings and borehole observatories

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Global ObservatoryGlobal Observatory

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ORION Advisory Structure

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Science Planning: OOI Timeline 2007-2013Science Planning: OOI Timeline 2007-2013

20082008Phase I: Coastal and global observatories deployedPhase I: Coastal and global observatories deployed

Need science experiments ready to start in 2008/9Need science experiments ready to start in 2008/920122012Phase II: Coastal and global deployments completedPhase II: Coastal and global deployments completed

20132013Regional Cabled Observatory finish testing and commissionRegional Cabled Observatory finish testing and commission

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What’s next?What’s next?

20062006

May - Advisory committee reviews revised Conceptual May - Advisory committee reviews revised Conceptual Network Design based on the Design & Implementation Network Design based on the Design & Implementation Workshop (March, 2006) commentsWorkshop (March, 2006) comments

August - NSF Conceptual Network Design ReviewAugust - NSF Conceptual Network Design Review

20072007

Spring – Final design reviewSpring – Final design review

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Role of Models in ORION

To achieve the state-of-the-art in ocean sciences EO modeling

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Multiple Purposes Improving the knowledge base

Testing theory (my favorite purpose!) Designing sensors and networks (envisioned)

Are the models trustworthy enough? Forecasting/hindcasting

The ultimate test! Decision support

Deliverables to the clients Public outreach

Justifying our existence!

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Model Types “Forward” physical ocean models: Navier-Stokes

Coupled sets of PDEs used almost exclusively Variety of grid systems

Level vs. layer coordinate models Telescoping vs. nested (one-way & two-way interactive) grids Adaptive (feature-following) vs. adaptive (sampling plans)

Coupled ecological-biogeochemical-physical ocean models (again mostly PDEs) Where Navier-Stokes meets natural selection! One example: The NOPP PARADIGM program

Using our best physical models in combination with hierarchy of ecosystem-biogeochemical models

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Model Methodologies Parameter estimation/optimization

Variational adjoint methods (minimizing misfit between model solutions and observations by systematically modifying values of parameters)

Data assimilation “Grand” challenge when considering coupled

ecological-biogeochemical-physical models! Model “In”validation!

One goal is to combine modelsmodels and methodologiesmethodologiesfor accomplishing the purposespurposes just established:

Observing System Simulation ExperimentsObserving System Simulation Experiments

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles

Simulation ofObservations

NatureRun

Calibration

Observing System Simulation Experiments

Observing System Experiment

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



Our best (e.g. highest resolution) forward models - Must possessclimatology, etc. as close to the real world as possible.

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



“Nature” is sampled (with errors) as one would the real world. Information re. sampling strategies (e.g. rates, spatial scales, etc.).

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



“Control” and “experimental” cycles, differing in the types ofdata assimilated. Information about which data to collect.

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



The model into which the data is assimilated is DIFFERENT thanthe “Nature” model. Avoids “identical twin” problem.

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



Various data assimilation techniques can also be tested.

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



Forecasts for “control” and “experimental” cycles are producedand verified against the “Nature” run.

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



Various operational strategies can be tested for efficiency (e.g. ensemble techniques).

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Verification

ForecastsData

AssimilationCycles


NatureRun

Calibration



Calibration is performed against an actual observing system,if available.

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The Role of OSSEs Are OSSEs ready to help select observatory sites?

Answer depends upon the scientific questions being asked YES for

• forward models that have been designed for addressing specific science questions

• single disciplinary data assimilation schemes

• regions with sufficient data for structuring error models NO for

• most multi-disciplinary issues

• forward models that are not configured for specific science issues

• regions lacking ‘critical mass’ data base

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Lewis Rothstein (U. Rhode Island) - ChairJohn Allen (Oregon State U.)

Fei Chai (U. Maine) Shuyi Chen (U. Miami)

Bruce Cornuelle (Scripps)Katja Fennel (Rutgers)

Pierre Lermusiaux (Harvard) Raghu Murtugudde (U. Maryland)

Yvette Spitz (Oregon State U.) Cisco Werner (U. North Carolina)

ORION Modeling Committee

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Terms of Reference To help establish the role of each of a hierarchy of coupled

numerical physical-biogeochemical ocean/atmosphere/geophysical models (including global, regional and coastal models) in the evolving plan for ocean observatories.

To provide advice on the current status of the different types of models required to achieve the objectives of the ORION program, and the primary issues or needs for development of those models.

To explore ways in which the ocean modeling community should interface with the atmospheric and geophysical modeling community for achieving the objectives of the ORION program.

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General Recommendations Foster a scientific approach where ocean observatories are fully

integrated with ocean modeling programs for better understanding and predictions through: Dynamical interpolation and synthesis of multiple data sets Utilization of models to iteratively guide the sampling design and

adaptive sampling plans (e.g. OSSEs) Evaluation and improvement of models, including error estimates

Utilize models within ORION to study, synthesize, discover and resolve (multi)-scale interactions, physical-biogeochemical-ecological coupling and ocean/earth processes, e.g.: Quantify interactions among coastal and global scale, mesoscale and

sub-mesoscale that are not directly observable Assess uncertain, or discover new, interdisciplinary ocean coupling Monitor, explain and better forecast climate dynamics, ecosystem

evolution, and earthquakes

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Specific Modeling Research Challenges for ORION

1) Models need to be configured to guide the observational design and for adaptive sampling plans

2) Utilize models for dynamical interpolation of data sets

3) Evaluate, (in)validate and improve models and their parameterizations

4) Encourage ORION studies which include modeling across disciplines

Details for each of these on the next 4 slides

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1) Models need to be configured to guide observational design and adaptive sampling plans Define scientific objectives for OSSEs OSSEs should be interactive and iterative Identify new metrics and processes for observation Inter-disciplinary OSSEs

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2) Utilize models for dynamical interpolation of data sets Data assimilation, re-analyses (hindcasts), nowcasts and

forecasts Extract predictive understanding from the process

understanding gathered from observations Dynamic interpolation of local data into larger-scale context:

forward and assimilative modeling with weak and strong constraints from observations to generate gridded products and re-analyses (physical, biogeochemical and ecological).

Hierarchy of forward/process-study models Hypotheses testing, with reduced physics models and

diagnostic tools

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3) Evaluate, (in)validate and improve models Acquire data to develop and evaluate parameterizations and their

impacts on model simulated scale interactions Develop strong & weak constraints for models, parameterizations

(turbulence, mixed layer-thermocline interactions) Target multi-scale interactions

Coastal-open ocean interactions; i.e the role of coastal upwelling in ocean general circulation

Develop improved data assimilation methods such as ensemble and particle Kalman filters, efficient error models

Identify predictable signals in the physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem variables

Develop novel grid generation and numerical techniques for physical-ecosystem/biogeochemical coupling

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4) Encourage ORION studies which include modeling across disciplines Ocean-atmospheric-land, physical-biogeochemical-

ecological, physical-acoustical-geophysical, etc. Develop interdisciplinary data assimilation techniques

for parameter estimation, identification of adequate model formulations (aggregations, behavior or scale-reductions)

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How To Do It - General Encourage modeling proposals as integral part Encourage modeling proposals as integral part

of ORION observatory and/or analysis RFPsof ORION observatory and/or analysis RFPs Facilitate modeling evaluation, assessment and sharing

of knowledge and skill levels between observatories Serve resource management needs by providing

prediction capability for specific regions Foster collaborations among different universities,

institutions, government agencies and modeling centers

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How To Do It - Operational Plan modeling continuity through the long life of ORION

Support efficient & cooperative transition of methodologies & technologies among research & operational centers, involving universities, institutions and other agencies

Preliminary proposal: Establish ‘Modeling Centers’ for: Maintaining hierarchy of evolving interdisciplinary models (e.g. from

‘reduced’ process-oriented models to operational forecast systems)• Model repositories with support for writing modeling manuals, etc.

Archiving and disseminating model data sets • Flexible formats for wide range of research endeavors

Linking to other IOOS activities & operational centers (e.g. NCEP) Coordinating between the ORION research community and the ‘Modeling

Centers’ through:• Visiting scientist and community postdoc programs• Student workshops

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Ocean Model Status

Coastal and Regional Models Basin-scale and Global Models

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Coastal and Regional Models

Strengths Multiple models available (hydrostatic to DNS equations,

level to unstructured (finite element/volume) grids) Useful data-assimilative models & nowcast/forecast

systems presently developed & applied

Weaknesses Open boundary conditions Topographic interactions Sub-grid-scale parameterizations Boundary layer resolution

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Basin Scale and Global Models Strengths

Large-scale response to atmospheric forcing Useful data-assimilative models & nowcast/forecast systems presently

developed & applied Community models

Weaknesses Unreliable surface fluxes Mixed layer/thermocline interactions Thermocline variability Sub-grid-scale representations/parameterizations Topographic effects Coastal resolution Numerics: advection, conservations schemes

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ORION Recommendations

Next generation model development Multiple models used in ensemble techniques Prediction of uncertainty, error analyses Adaptive models: grid-, model functional-, and data- adaptive Interdisciplinary diagnostic tools/systems to extract fundamental

biogeochemical-dynamical, energy and other balances Interactive user-interfaces and modularizations Fully coupled (land)-ocean-atmosphere interdisciplinary models

for earth system modeling Multi-domain, 2-way 3D nested models

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Immediate Needs/Priorities and

Opportunities

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Immediate Needs/Priorities

Bottleneck #1: Cultural Issues Full acceptance of models (i.e. willing to share resources)

from the observational community for filling the envisioned central role of observatory design and analyses.

Remedy: Bring together teams of observationalists and modelers

FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE OBSERVATORY DESIGN PROCESS so that each group can better understand the concerns of the other.

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Immediate Needs/Priorities Bottleneck #2: Scientific Issues

Numerous research issues ranging from better representation of unresolved physics (and ecology and biogeochemistry) for improving forward models to more efficient data assimilation schemes and comprehensive analyses techniques that are designed specifically for the science issues of a particular observatory.

Remedy: Elevate funding for models as equal priority as the field

programs. Modeling proposals should be submitted together with

observatory proposals.

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New Opportunities

ORION will create a strong foundation for ocean modeling well into the future IFIF we are willing to work in teams for accomplishing common objectives.

NSF, through its Environmental Observatory Initiatives, will enable a wonderful cross-disciplinary opportunity for sharing state-of-the-art models and modeling techniques IFIF we are willing to take the time to learn each other’s issues.

A golden opportunity for environmental modeling!A golden opportunity for environmental modeling!

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Modeling for Ocean Observatories:

The ORION ProgramLewis M. Rothstein

Graduate School of Oceanography

University of Rhode Island

Environmental Observatories Modeling WorkshopMay 16 &17 - Tucson, AZ

Sponsored by the National Science Foundation

GRAND CHALLENGES OF THE FUTURE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING

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Slides Not Used

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2008

2007

2006

2005

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

Global and Coastal IO Selection

Preparation of Preliminary PEP

RFP for RCO and CI IOs RCO and CI IO Selection

D&I Workshop

Prep of Prelim. PEP Revise PEPCDR

Construction Phase

RFA proposals submitted

PEP to NSF

NSB Approval

FDR/PDR

Award Negotiation

RFA Panel

Revise PEP

Development of IMPDevelopment of IMP

EA / EIS

EA / EIS

RFP for Global and Coastal IOs IO Selection

Construction PhaseNSB Prep.

Coastal first stage commissioned in 2008; need science experiments ready to start

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Imagination is the beginning of Imagination is the beginning of creation. You imagine what you desire, creation. You imagine what you desire, you will what you imagine and at last you will what you imagine and at last you create what you will.you create what you will.

George Bernard ShawGeorge Bernard Shaw

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Implementing OrganizationsImplementing Organizations

• The Implementing Organizations (IOs) will manage the procurement and installation of the observatory networks leading to the operation of these facilities for the ORION Program

• An IO may be an academic institution, a consortia of academic institutions, or an academic-industry partnership

• Separate IOs may be chosen for the coastal, RCO and global components of the OOI, as well as Cyberinfrastructure

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Withdraw orAdd data for

existing instrumentsDa

ta a

ssim

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Forecast impact test

Control dataReal observed

data

SimulationReal

Control data +Simulated data for future instruments

Forecast Forecast

Forecast

Calibration

Analysis Analysis

AnalysisAnalysis impact test

Forecast impact test

Analysis impact testAnalysis Analysis

ForecastForecast

Data

ass

imila

tion

Data

ass

imila

tion

Analysis and forecast are evaluate against analysis of control

Simulation of data

Nat

ure

Ru

n

Evaluation ofNew Instruments

Simulated analysis and forecast are also evaluate against the Nature Run

Experimental dataReal observed data

Simulated dataSimulated data

Nature Run (Truth)

1 modeling for ocean observatories: the orion program lewis m. rothstein graduate school of...

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