1. market context · corredor ferro-portuário - chitima-moatize-macuse 1. market context the...

Corredor Ferro-Portuário - Chitima-Moatize-Macuse

> Infrastructure plays a critical role in economic development and growth. Poor quality of

energy and transportation infrastructure (roads, rail, ports) severely impacts overall

economic competitiveness in sub-Saharan countries. The African Development bank

estimates that poor infrastructure reduces productivity by 40% and cuts the pace of

economic growth of the continent by 2 percentages point per year.

> Africa is the region with the largest needs of infrastructure investments, estimated

at US$93 billion per year, with a shortfall of US$32 billion according to the

Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA).

> Improved road and rail connections between large urban areas, land locked natural

resources and efficient interfaces with trade hubs (ports and airports) are critical to step

up the economy, foster regional integration and boost trade (domestic and cross-border).

> The region’s rail infrastructure, in particular, is severely deteriorated by decades of

under investment. Railway can provide the most cost efficient mode of transport

for large freight volumes. It can move large quantities through dedicated corridors

while reducing traffic pressure on the poorly maintained road networks and

opening up the possibility of passenger transport in the near future.

> iven the major role of commodities in Africa’s exports, the importance of

efficient ports and an adequate rail network cannot be overestimated.

Areas with potential to host new rail projects

Source: ALG in “Rail Infrastructure in Africa – African Development Bank”

1. MARKET CONTEXT

INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA

GDP growth


1. MARKET CONTEXT

THE MOZAMBIQUE OPPORTUNITY

> Since independence in 1975, the country has faced critical developmental challenges

including widespread poverty and inequalities, low diversification of the economy, with

most of its workforce employed in the agricultural sector, and periods of political

unrest.

> The discovery of huge natural gas and coal reserves in Mozambique, and the ensuing

strong increase of foreign direct investments since 2010, represent a unique

opportunity to accelerate the country’s socioeconomic development.

> In the wake of the “hidden-debt” crisis in 2016 the economy has experienced a severe

downturn, with real GDP growth plunging to an estimated 3.4%, down from an annual

average of around c.7% in the previous five years.

> Nevertheless Mozambique has remained one of the top 5 destinations of foreign direct

investment (FDI) in the continent, largely due to the resource-related mega-projects.

> The economy showed signs of improvement in 2017, with growth estimates ranging

between 4.5% - 5.5% driven by exports and mega-projects in the

resources/extractives sector.

Top FDI

destination

countries 2016

USD

billion

Main target sectors

Egypt 10.1 Real estate, oil, gas, renewables

Morocco 4.9 Renewables, real estate, auto

Angola 4.4 Oil, gas, communications, transportation

Ghana 3.6 Oil, financial services, construction

Mozambique 3.4 Transport, coal, gas, real estate

Ethiopia 2.7 Chemicals, real estate, textiles

South Africa 2.8 Coal, oil, gas, transportation, auto

6,46,7

7,1 7,2 7,17,4

6,6

3,4

4,5

5,5

0

2

4

6

8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% growth

Mozambique Sub-Saharan Africa Africa

Source: African Economic Outlook 2017, AfDB


1. MARKET CONTEXT

THE MOZAMBIQUE OPPORTUNITY

> Mozambique has significant gas and coal reserves along with a vast potential in the field of renewable energies.

The country is the third richest country after Nigeria and Algeria in terms of natural gas proven reserves, and the

thermal and metallurgical coal resources in the Moatize Basin in Tete province are estimated at c.28 billion

tons.

> Coal exports from Mozambique started in 2011. Since then, improved rail and port infrastructure has allowed

annual exports to increase from 0.6 million tons to 11 million tons in 2017, even in the context of weak coal prices.

> Infrastructure remains a key constraint for the development of several coal mine projects in the Tete region. At the

moment there are three operating mines and several other mine projects waiting to be developed.

> nsidering the operating mines, known projects and the existing resources, the country has the potential

to become one of the world’s top coal exporters. Developing efficient infrastructure is seen as critical to

unlock the value of these natural reserves. Once vital infrastructures are in place, the country will be

positioned as a potential key supplier to the Asian economies see appendix: summary profile of operating

miners and selected projects.

Coal Proven Reserves

at end 2016 –Top 10 billion tonnes

24,2

25,6

25,6

28,0

34,4

36,2

94,8

144,8

160,4

244,0

251,6

Poland

Indonesia

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Germany

India

Australia

Russia

China

USA

BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June2017

Moz estimates


1. MARKET CONTEXT

COAL MARKET OVERVIEW

Due to transportation costs

and consumer patterns (coking

coal/thermal coal), the trade of

coal is divided into two large

regional markets: i) the

Atlantic market, and (ii) the

Pacific market.

The coking coal trade has a

small number of key suppliers

(Australia, USA, Canada,

Russia) strong potential in

Mozambique.

As coal is mostly used in the

countries where it is mined, the

international coal trade

accounts for a relatively small

percentage of total coal

production (c.19% in 2015),

the majority of which via

seaborne trade. Only mines

with low production costs and

good transport links to sea

ports can competitively deliver

coal overseas.

Key net exporters

Key net importers

Colombia and Russia are swing suppliers (Atlantic/Pacific)

Australia and Indonesia dominate the Pacific market

Sources: IEA, World Coal Association, Euracoal

USA

Colombia

Venezuela

RSA

Russia

Australia

Indonesia

China

UK Germany

Turkey

India

Japan

Thailand

Taiwan

Malaysia

South Korea

N.Korea

Russia, Colombia, RSA and the US are the major Atlantic suppliers

mill

ion

to

nn

es o

il eq

uiv

.


CORREDOR FERRO-PORTUÁRIO


> Coal production has fallen in 2014 for the first time since the 1990s, influenced by the slower growth in the Chinese steel and cement sectors and the country’s

push towards cleaner energy sources. Power generation accounts for c.60% of coal demand in China. The steel and cement industries have a share of c.26%

(compares to c.4% in the US and c.14% in the EU).

> The Asia region is the biggest market for coal. Within it China is, by far, the largest consumer with a global share of c.50% but India is the market with the

fastest growth over the last 10 years (surpassing the US in 2015). In the US and EU the coal demand has been falling since 2007/2008 due to natural gas

competition and environmental regulations.

> Oversupply, the price of natural gas and increasing environmental concerns are the chief factors negatively impacting the coal industry.

> After a long price slump from 2012 to 2015, coal prices have since entered a period of heightened volatility and have recently shown signs of pick up.

19%10%

42%46%

3.1

95

3.3

32

3.4

41

3.4

41

3.6

33

3.8

97

3.9

39

4.0

06

3.9

92

3.8

87

3.6

56

6%8%

0

1100

2200

3300

4400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Russia Indonesia India Australia USA China RoW

Coal Production, 2006-2016

* Food&Beverages commodities, Agricultural raw materials, Minerous

and non-ferrous metals, energy commodities

** Natural Gas, Crude Petroleum, Coal

18%

10%7%

11%

46%

52%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Russia Japan USA India China

mill

ion

to

nn

es o

il eq

uiv

.

Coal Consumption - top 5 countries, 2006-2016

Sources: World Energy Council- ‘World Enery Resources 2016’; WTO– ‘World Trade Statistical Review 2017’; BP statistical review of world energy, June2017

Export Prices of Primary Commodities, 2006-2017

share

104

138

266

149

206

254

202177

149121

138

172

119132

185

117147

201

203196

180

9981

102

0

75

150

225

300

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Q1

Coal Energy commodities** All Primary commodities*

INDEX 2005=100




> In absolute terms, coal was the fastest growing fuel source between 2000 and 2014, with an impressive 64% increase in consumption. In spite of the

increasing pressure from the transition to renewable and cleaner sources of energy (natural gas), coal remains a key energy source and is forecast to

maintain a declining but strategic share over the coming decades.

> There is however a marked regional divergence, with Asia accounting for circa two thirds of global coal consumption. The coal share in the energy mix is

much higher in the Africa and Asia regions. In these regions coal share will outpace the decline in the global market share but it will still account for a very

relevant share in the long term. In fact while it is forecast to slip to third place in the global energy mix, in the Asia and Africa regions coal will keep the top

spot ahead of natural gas and liquids.

158,2 161,9 161,9 158,8 159,3 160,5

575 605 635 663697

736

0

200

400

600

800

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Qu

adri

llio

n B

TU

Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Other (renewab.)

Global Energy Consumption Mix

27,5% 26,8%25,5%

23,9% 22,8% 21,8%

44,9%43,5%

41,0%

38,0%35,6%

33,6%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

World share Asia+Africa share

Sources: World Energy Council- ‘World Enery Resources 2016’; US EIA- ‘International Energy Outlook 2017 ‘

8

76

51

26

195

306

383

31

8

22

36

LatAm

Africa

East Eur./Eurasia

Russia

Other Asia

India

China

Other OECD countries

Japan

USA

EU28

Coal Share in Energy Consumption Mix Cumulative Coal Based Power Plant

Addition, 2015-2040 in GW

Key markets for Moz coal




108.24

700.75 > Mozambique is ideally

located to efficiently supply

the Asian region, where the

world’s largest coal

consuming economies are

located.

COAL FINAL CONSUMPTION (Mtoe)

Source: IEA, Atlas of energy 2015

Source: IEA, Atlas of energy 2015

119

117 99

81


NET TRADE OF COAL (Mtoe)

> Although China is the world’s largest

producing and consuming market, India

grabs the top spot as the world’s largest

net importer of coal (119 Mtoe), with

Japan a close second (117 Mtoe).





CHITIMA-MOATIZE-MACUSE

> Foi atribuída a concessão para construir e operar o corredor ferroviário entre Macuse-Moatize (484 km) com extensão a Chitima e o porto de Macuse com

uma capacidade inicial de 33 mtpa, extensível até 100 mtpa para o transporte de carvão, carga geral e passageiros.

> Este projecto é de importância vital para a logística do sector mineiro, na medida em que permite garantir a abertura da bacia de Moatize ao mercado

internacional, assegurando um custo logístico mais competitivo face aos concorrentes mais directos, nomeadamente Austrália e Indonésia.

> O Investimento total ascende a 2.700 milhões de $USD

> Infraestrutura ferroviária (Moatize – Macuse) ascende a 1.8900milhões de $USD

> Infraestrutura portuária ascende a 810 milhões de $USD

> Frota ferroviária ascende a 300 milhões de $USD

ATRIBUI CONCESSÃO Ministério de

Transportes e

Comunicações

Thai

Mocambique

Logística S.A.

(TML)


ESTRUTURA ACCIONISTA CORREDOR FERRO-PORTUÁRIO

CHITIMA-MOATIZE-MACUSE

CFM 20%

Codiza 20%

Operador

Portuário

Operador

Ferroviário

Minas Clientes de

carvão

Contratos de

transporte de

longa duração

ITD 60%

Ministério de

Transportes e

Comunicações

Thai

Mocambique

Logística S.A.

(TML)

ATRIBUI

CONCESSÃO

> Thai Moçambique Logística S.A. (TML) é uma Companhia constituída de

acordo com a Lei de Moçambique

> TML é participada por:

> Italian-Thai Development PCL (ITD), da Tailândia (60%).

> Portos e Caminhos de Ferro de Moçambique, E.P. (CFM), de

Moçambique (20%).

> Corredor de Desenvolvimento Integrado do Zambeze, SA (CODIZA),

de Moçambique (20%).


BREVE DESCRIÇÃO DO PROJECTO

> Linha Férrea

Vai ser construída uma linha férrea

de alta performance, para o

transporte do carvão, cargas geral

e passageiros entre a região de

Moatize/Chitima e o novo porto a

ser construído no Rio Macuse.

O comprimento total da linha férrea

é de 639 km.

Macuse

Moatize

Mutarara

Chitima

Doa


ALINHAMENTO GERAL


LOOPS DE ACESSO ÀS MINAS


LINHA FÉRREA-PARÂMETROS DE PERFORMANE

Item Descrição

Bitola 1.067 mm

Carga por eixo 26 toneladas

Número de linhas principais

Via única com 22 cruzamentos

Sinalização Automática com comando centralizado

Pendente máxima 0,5% para comboios carregados, 1,0% para comboios vazios

Composição do comboio 2 locomotivas + 140 vagões de 104 toneladas brutas

Comboios em operação 14 comboios por dia

Duração do ciclo 30 Horas

Capacidade por comboio 11.200 toneladas líquidas

Frota 30 locomotivas e 2100 vagões

Comboios de passageiros 2 por dia


BREVE DESCRIÇÃO DO PROJECTO

O novo porto marítimo de águas

profundas, será construído de

acordo com os Padrões Marítimos

Internacionais com uma

capacidade inicial para Carvao de

33mtpa, extensível até 100mtpa.

Irá acolher outros terminais para

carga geral e especializados.

> Porto


TERMINAL PORTUÁRIO


PORTO DE CARVÃO-CAPACIDADE MÁXIMA DE 100 MTPA

Iteme Descrição

Cais de carga para

carvão

2 navios tipo panamax 80,000 DWT

Velocidade de carga 10.000 toneladas/hora

Cais de rebocadores

2 rebocadores de 80 toneladas com 90m de comprimento

Cais Roll-on-roll-off Nivelamento

baixa (L= 40m), média (L= 24m), alta (8m)

Terminal de líquidos

1 Cais de 120 m

Paredões Norte – 4000m de comprimento

Sul – 3000m de comprimento

Canal de acesso 14 Km

Área de Stock de carvão 1.200.000 toneladas


LINHA FÉRREA-PARÂMETROS DE PERFORMANE


AREA DE CONCESSÃO E JURISDIÇÃO PORTO MACUSE


SUPINHO


MACRO ESTRUTURA FINANCEIRA DO PROJECTO

TML

Mozambique Take or Pay

Counterparties

Parent

Companies

Revenue

PRI Cover

Guarantees /

LCs

Sinosure MIGA

Development

Financial

Institutions

Export Credit

Agencies

China State banks

/ Commercial

Lenders

Guarantees

Long term debt

ITD (60%) CFM (20%) CODIZA (20%)

Completion Support Equity


CRONOGRAMA DO PROJECTO


CONTACTOS

Mamed Latif

Administrador

Thai Moçambique Logistica, S.A.

+258 848 207 597

[email protected]

José Fonseca

PCA

Thai Moçambique Logistica, S.A.

+258 846 068 727

[email protected]

1. market context · corredor ferro-portuário - chitima-moatize-macuse 1. market context the...

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