1 march 2017 - cplo.org.za · jakkie cilliers 1 march 2017 will we be ready for 2019 elections?...

Jakkie Cilliers

1 March 2017

Will we be ready for 2019 elections?@JakkieCilliers

© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 17 August 2018 2

SCOPE

1. Potential for violence

2. Impact of intensified political competition

3. Key patterns/voter demographics


PAST ELECTION VIOLENCE

• Until 2004 peaceful = confidence in integrity and

independence of IEC, transparency

• Ahead of 2009: cashes ANC vs COPE

• Ahead of 2014: 28 politically related deaths

• 2014: intimidation at several voting stations and

IEC staff threatened

• Ahead of 2016: political assassinations, voter

registration (Tlokwe) & Tshwane (Thoko Didiza),

• 2016: peaceful thro massive security force action


2019: POSITIVE?

• Local government elections (2016) more prone to

violence than national/provincial elections (2019)

• Start of turnaround in state security institutions

but cleanout still tentative

• Zuma no longer in power…

• By 2019 start prosecutions of key individuals

may have started

• Promise of more coherent and effective

government

• Reputation and capacity of IEC


2019: NEGATIVE?

• Low/no growth – trade war and low/no

confidence?

• Violent crime is increasing

• Xenophobia has intensified

• Collapse of local government

• Rise in violent populism & emotive issues

• Deep divisions within ANC

• Resource constraints on IEC

• Impact of Zuma years on security institutions

• Fake news and social media


SATISFACTION IN THE SAPS

64,2%

62,5%

59,4%

56,9%

58,8%

57,3%

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

2011 2012 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Household satisfaction with the police, 2011-2016/17 – Statistics SA


FRUSTRATED EXPECTATIONS

• After rapid roll-out of various services until mid-

2000, now reverse as efficiency and capacity of

local government has declined

• Result is increase in service delivery protests

• Large numbers or unemployed = time and

motivation for protest

• South Africa becoming more turbulent and

increasingly violent whilst police only recently

halted decline in public order policing


INCREASE IN PUBLIC VIOLENCE =

LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STATE

7858

10156

8981

6640 6342

7993

1168010832 10517

1160112451

11151

660 965 753 755 753 1014 971 12261882 1907

2289

3542

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Peaceful Crowd-related Events Unrest-related Events


CRIMINAL JUSTICE DOESN’T WORK AS A SYSTEM

180000

360000

540000

720000

900000

1080000

1260000

1440000

1620000

1800000

SAPS Arrests NPA Cases Finalised

In 2016 the SAPS made 507 986

more arrests than in 2005

But the NPA finalised 70 170

fewer cases than in 2005


HAWKS PERFORMANCE TRENDS

14793

13146

7620

6257 58477037 6538

46944043

11760

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015

Parliamentary Question 3522

Arrests Convictions


POLICE CONDUCT: CIVIL CLAIMS PAID OUT

14

In Millions

38546 37207 3820757403

79451 85605

105960

187132

251192 256188

290979

335485

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Rands in Millions

778% over 10 years

© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 17 August 2018 158/17/2018 15

POLITICAL ATTACKS AND KILLINGS


WE HAVE BEEN PARTIALLY BLINDED

“President Zuma typically selected dishonest,

corrupt or incompetent people to head various

government and state-owned agencies. It started

with the country’s security agencies …”

Dr Johan Burger & Gareth Newham, ISS Today, 17 April 2018


NATIONAL VOTER REGISTRATION

• 26.4 million voters registered of which 55.1% woman

and 44.9% men


MIGRATION

• SA continues to attract Africans from elsewhere in

continent but white voters are emigrating …

Years African Indian/Asian White Net

1985-2000 516 886 33 166 -184 430 365 622

2001-2005 481 842 22 719 -97 113 407 448

2006-2010 773 946 39 406 -105 964 707 388

2010-2015 940 352 53 444 -110 434 883 362

2016-2020 1 072 557 59 432 -114 995 1 016 994


REGISTRATIONS BY PROVINCE

• Gauteng and KZN have significantly more voters

Gauteng6 199 584

KZN5 378 827

Eastern C3 304 964

W Cape3 039 040

Limp2 564 450

Mpum1 907 881

NW1 686 130

Free State1 442 259

N Cape611 587

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

Gauteng KZN Eastern C W Cape Limp Mpum NW Free State N Cape



• 19% more women than men in Limpopo but only 3.5%

more women in Gauteng

Eastern C; 13,1

W Cape; 11,6

Limpopo; 10,6

Mpum; 7,3

NW; 6,2

Free State; 5,5

N Cape; 2,3



• Registration in Gauteng appears to be low whilst that in

KZN and Eastern Cape is high

% voters % pop More or less

voters?

Gauteng 22.3 25.5 ↓

KZN 21.1 19.7 ↑

Eastern C 13.1 11.3 ↑

W Cape 11.6 11.5 →

Limpopo 10.6 10.0 →

Mpum 7.3 7.8 →

NW 6.2 6.9 →

Free State 5.5 5.1 →

N Cape 2.3 2.1 →


REGISTRATIONS BY AGE COHORT

• First time voter registration appears to be low (+18)

• Born free registrations appear to be low (-1995)

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

18-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+


MAIN PARTY ISSUES

• Will non-voting ANC supporters in urban areas

come out to vote for Ramaphosa?

• Will the DA regain its 2016 momentum or

falter?

• Will the EFF find a (new) policy or violently

exploit seizure of land?


CONTACT US

[email protected]

@ISSAfrica

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.issafrica.org/

1 march 2017 - cplo.org.za · jakkie cilliers 1 march 2017 will we be ready for 2019 elections?...

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