1 mainstreaming conservation roi: how and why? jim boyd resources for the future timm kroeger tnc
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Mainstreaming Conservation ROI:
How and Why?
Jim BoydResources for the Future
Timm KroegerTNC
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Interim Report onTNC-RFF Partnership
supported by the Moore Foundation
Mission
• Promote broader application of return on investment (ROI) analysis by conservation planners and managers
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What Is ROI Analysis?
• Quantitative outcome measures– Measured or predicted conservation “lift” relative
to baseline• Costs, budget constraints taken into account
– Measure bang for buck
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Motivation
• Numerous studies have shown that ROI-based planning – Alters the location and targets of “optimal”
conservation– Achieves more protection and higher-quality
conservation outcomes– Saves money
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Examples
• Moore et al, Biological Conservation, 2004 – 66% gain in species coverage
• Murdoch et al, Biological Conservation, 2007– Major changes in portfolio choice
• Murdoch et al PNAS, 2010 – ROI yields 4x the conservation benefit, compared
to “hotspot” framework
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Motivation 1
• Despite this, and despite leadership support– ROI analysis is rarely used in practice– Why?– What can we do about it?
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Motivation 1
• Despite this, and despite leadership support– ROI analysis is rarely, if ever, used by TNC– Why?– What can we do about it?
These ROI analyses are of “simple” cost effectiveness– A single objective – e.g. biodiversity conservation
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Motivation 2
• Changing conservancy missions– Emphasize social objectives– Conserve ecosystem services– Multi-objective goals
• ROI framework arguably necessary to do– Optimized planning for – Multi-objective, social/economic missions
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The TNC-RFF ROI Project
Key questions:• How to define the “R” in ROI?• What type of ROI outputs are most useful to
TNC? • What are the core technical barriers?
– Data, models• Managerial barriers?
– Planning/analysis frameworks, staffing, training, protocols
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The Project Plan
Phase 1• Evaluate current ROI analysis capabilities • What ROI products would actually be used by
managers and to what end?Phase 2• Depending on phase 1 …
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Phase 1 Activities
(1) Six project level case studies • What is the project’s “ROI story?” • What are the outcomes associated with that story?• To what degree can the ROI story be quantified?• What is the project-level state of the art re.
quantification?• What are the barriers to quantification?
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Internal Demand
• Portfolio strategy– Use ROI to tell us where to invest over broad
areas?• Project-level evaluation
– Use ROI to measure project effectiveness, manage adaptively (like RBM)
• Communications – Use ROI to improve messaging, to reach
stakeholders, supporters
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The Pilot TNC Cases
• Kimbe Bay MPA (Papua New Guinea) • Great Bear Rainforest (Canada)• Savannah River SRP (USA)• Valdivian Coastal Reserve (Chile) • Warm Springs Mountain Preserve (USA) • Atlantic Forest Water Producer Program (Brazil)
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What We’re Looking For
• What is the conservation objective?– Is it clearly defined, and can it be measured?– One objective, or multiple?– Biophysical or social outcomes?
• Measured baselines– Analysis of threats to conservation objectives
• Measured conservation outcomes as function of conservation actions
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Biophysical Impact
• What is the biophysical “lift”?• Measureable improvements over baseline
Example: Increased species abundanceExample: Preservation of species abundance, where
otherwise we’d have losses
Note: the lift must be attributable to the conservation action
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Biophysical production functions Via monitored
data, predictive models, stories
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Results (Broadly Painted)• Projects chosen
– Biodiversity planning + opportunism– Some analysis of threats, but not systematic
• Evaluation of biophysical outcomes– Sporadic, with some innovative examples– Very limited support for monitoring
• Evaluation of social outcomes– Almost non-existent
• Costs– Usually, but not in consistent formats
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Warm Springs Mountain
• Site selection– Sophisticated ecoregional planning– Opportunism versus cost-effectiveness– Qualitative threat assessment
• Conservation experiments– Fire restoration, species impacts– Small scale invasive species control
• Ecosystem services– No analysis of production functions, social
outcomes
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Implications for Phase 2
• Social data, measures of ecosystem service benefits
• Project-level models, data on production functions– eg InVEST
• Demonstration of portfolio-level social objectives planning
• The ROI of ROI