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Long Range Planning for Sustainable Growth

Petra TodorovichDirector, America 2050

Regional Plan Association

Greater Vancouver Livability Forum

June 1, 2009Vancouver, BC

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Strategies at Every Scale

1. Global Trends

2. National Policy

3. Megaregion-scale coordination

4. Regional investments

5. City planning & urban design

3Global climate change and foreign oil dependence

Rapid population growth and demographic change

Threats to our global competitiveness

Economic disparities and loss of opportunity

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Megaregion Priorities: Building Blocks of a National Plan

•High-speed rail

•Seaports, airports, and goods movement

•Energy transmission and generation

•Water infrastructure and protection

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A Tradition of National Planning

Gallatin Plan 1808 Theodore Roosevelt and Gifford Pinchot 1908

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National Resources Planning Board and the Interstate

System

National System of Interstate Highways, Public Roads Administration, 1947

Early interstate plan, from “Toll Roads and Free Roads,” National Resources Planning Board and Bureau of Public Roads, 1939

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“This is an opportunity not only to deal with the immediate crisis, but also to lay the foundations for long-term growth and prosperity in this country.”

– President Barack Obama

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

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Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Washington

The Northeast Megaregion

• 49 million inhabitants

• 17% of U.S. population on 2% of the land area

• 20% of U.S. GDP• Will add 19

million additional people by 2050

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Rapid Urbanization

Source: RPA GIS Model, Woods & Poole County Population projections

Sprawl is causing the megaregion to grow together – but with trade offs to the environment and quality of life.

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Large Landscapes and Estuaries

Source: RPA, adapted from the Appalachian Mountain Club

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Vision : Dense Hubs connected by high-speed transport

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The Cascadia Megaregion

1. Lead N. America in sustainable urban development

2. Enhance Cascadia “brand” – agricultural products, tourism, and more

3. Increase connections across international border

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•GreenswardA 3-million acre network of protected natural resource systems

•MobilityA seamless 21st century mass transit system

•CentersMaintaining half the region’s employment in urban centers

•WorkforceAssisting minority and immigrant communities to fully participate in the economic mainstream

•GovernanceRestructuring institutions and fiscal incentives

The Third Regional Plan

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The region is running out of the developable land and infrastructure capacity necessary to sustain growth into the 21st Century.

Implications

• Economy: Sprawling development patterns limiting economic growth.

• Equity: Further Isolation of low-income communities.

• Environment: Degrading our remaining open spaces. Data Source: 1930-1990 provided by RPA,

USGS, and Cornell & 2020 by Hunter College

The Implications of Sprawl

CT

NY

NJ

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Transit Oriented Development in the NY Region•Brownfield redevelopment•Retrofitting sprawl•Intensifying centers

Existing Trend Growth TOD Growth

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Pre-1960

1960-90Increasing Land Consumption per Capita:

Pre-1960= 0.10 acres/person

1960 to 1990=1.2acres/person

Growth will consume over 2 million acres in 25 years.

Loss of Open Space Photo taken by Alex Maclean: Landslides

What’s at Stake

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Decline of urban centers

What’s at Stake

22Photo taken by Alex Maclean: LandslidesSegregation of land uses

What’s at Stake

23Photo taken by Alex Maclean: LandslidesTraffic and congestion

What’s at Stake

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Strategies for Older CitiesInner Connections and Outer Connections

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Newark Vision Plan Summaries

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Recommendations

• Develop a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system for key Newark corridors

• Make the road network work

• Encourage dense new development around transit nodes and along transit corridors

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Final Thoughts

• Implementation is required at every scale.

• Things take time! • Dare to make grand plans. • A Crisis is a terrible thing to waste.

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www.America2050.org

www.rpa.org