1 joint hurricane test bed (jht) opportunities for transfer of research and technology into tropical...

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Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Opportunities for Transfer of Research Opportunities for Transfer of Research and Technology into Tropical Cyclone and Technology into Tropical Cyclone

Analysis and Forecast OperationsAnalysis and Forecast Operations



USWRP

AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology 4 May 20044 May 2004

AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology 4 May 20044 May 2004

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Purpose of this SessionPurpose of this Session

• NOAA continues to seek new science and technology to improve operational tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting

• The testing and evaluation of existing, mature, and promising science and technology in an operational setting will be funded by grants

• An announcement of opportunity for grant proposals will be released on or about 1 June 2004

• NOAA continues to seek new science and technology to improve operational tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting

• The testing and evaluation of existing, mature, and promising science and technology in an operational setting will be funded by grants

• An announcement of opportunity for grant proposals will be released on or about 1 June 2004

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Session AgendaSession Agenda

• Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Overview– Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing, JHT Director and TPC/NHC

• JHT 2004 Announcement of Opportunity– Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRP

• JHT Proposal Reviews and the Testing and Evaluation Process

– Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst. and TPC/NHC– James Franklin, TPC/NHC

• Open Discussion, Questions and Answers

• Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Overview– Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing, JHT Director and TPC/NHC

• JHT 2004 Announcement of Opportunity– Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRP

• JHT Proposal Reviews and the Testing and Evaluation Process

– Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst. and TPC/NHC– James Franklin, TPC/NHC

• Open Discussion, Questions and Answers

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Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)OverviewOverview

Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)OverviewOverview

USWRP

Dr. Jiann-Gwo JiingDr. Jiann-Gwo JiingJHT DirectorJHT Director

TPC/NHC Technical Support Branch ChiefTPC/NHC Technical Support Branch Chief

Dr. Jiann-Gwo JiingDr. Jiann-Gwo JiingJHT DirectorJHT Director

TPC/NHC Technical Support Branch ChiefTPC/NHC Technical Support Branch Chief

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OutlineOutline

1. JHT Mission Statement

2. Major Activities 2001-03

3. JHT Infrastructure

4. TPC Operational Environment

5. JHT Computing Resources

6. TPC/NHC Contributions to JHT

7. JHT First Round Projects

8. JHT Second Round Project Focus Areas

9. JHT Future Plans

1. JHT Mission Statement

2. Major Activities 2001-03

3. JHT Infrastructure

4. TPC Operational Environment

5. JHT Computing Resources

6. TPC/NHC Contributions to JHT

7. JHT First Round Projects

8. JHT Second Round Project Focus Areas

9. JHT Future Plans

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JHT Mission StatementJHT Mission Statement

The mission of the Joint (NOAA, Navy, and NASA) Hurricane Test Bed is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the USWRP, its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.

The mission of the Joint (NOAA, Navy, and NASA) Hurricane Test Bed is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the USWRP, its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.

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• Established the JHT 2001-02– Developed Terms of Reference (Mar 2001-May 2002)

• Including establishment of the process and criteria for a successful transfer from research to operations

– Funded initial round of 10 projects for a first year (Jun 2001)– Formed Steering Committee (Mar 2002)– Renewed 9 of 10 first round projects for a second year (FY02)

(Q3 2002)– Procured hardware (Q3 2002)– Hired IT Facilitator (Jun 2002)

• Established the JHT 2001-02– Developed Terms of Reference (Mar 2001-May 2002)

• Including establishment of the process and criteria for a successful transfer from research to operations

– Funded initial round of 10 projects for a first year (Jun 2001)– Formed Steering Committee (Mar 2002)– Renewed 9 of 10 first round projects for a second year (FY02)

(Q3 2002)– Procured hardware (Q3 2002)– Hired IT Facilitator (Jun 2002)

Major Activities 2001-03Major Activities 2001-03

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• First Round Project Assessments 2002-03– IT configuration and algorithm processing provided for each

project to facilitate forecaster participation

– Real-time testing and evaluation activities (Jun-Nov 2002) and continued during 2003 season

– PIs presented updates at 56th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (Mar 2002) and 57th IHC (Mar 2003)

– FY01-02 projects concluded (Jun-Aug 2003)

– JHT reports on results from 2002-03 hurricane seasons (Nov 2003)

– TPC/NHC decisions for operational implementation (Dec 2003)

• First Round Project Assessments 2002-03– IT configuration and algorithm processing provided for each

project to facilitate forecaster participation

– Real-time testing and evaluation activities (Jun-Nov 2002) and continued during 2003 season

– PIs presented updates at 56th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (Mar 2002) and 57th IHC (Mar 2003)

– FY01-02 projects concluded (Jun-Aug 2003)

– JHT reports on results from 2002-03 hurricane seasons (Nov 2003)

– TPC/NHC decisions for operational implementation (Dec 2003)

Major Activities 2001-03Major Activities 2001-03

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JHT InfrastructureJHT Infrastructure

Personnel• Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE)• 7-member Steering Committee

– Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community

– TPC member serves as co-Chair• Two quarter-time administrative assistants • One IT Facilitator

Computing Resources• Server and workstations• Software

Personnel• Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE)• 7-member Steering Committee

– Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community

– TPC member serves as co-Chair• Two quarter-time administrative assistants • One IT Facilitator

Computing Resources• Server and workstations• Software

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Logistics• Dedicated physical space in operations, offices

Personnel• TPC dedicating 1.5 staff years of effort• Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)• Programming, system administration, and network support• Administrative support

Computing Resources• Network connectivity• Operational data flow

Logistics• Dedicated physical space in operations, offices

Personnel• TPC dedicating 1.5 staff years of effort• Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)• Programming, system administration, and network support• Administrative support

Computing Resources• Network connectivity• Operational data flow

TPC/NHC Contributions to JHTTPC/NHC Contributions to JHT

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TPC Operational EnvironmentTPC Operational Environment

Platforms/Applications• N-AWIPS - GEMPAK• ATCF• Satellite processing – McIDAS-X• AWIPS

Hardware• HP servers/workstations• Red Hat Linux workstations

Data• Satellite imagery - McIDAS AREA files• Observational data – GEMPAK, text, binary; NetCDF (AWIPS)• Numerical model output – grib and GEMPAK grid• ATCF data – text files (“decks”)

Platforms/Applications• N-AWIPS - GEMPAK• ATCF• Satellite processing – McIDAS-X• AWIPS

Hardware• HP servers/workstations• Red Hat Linux workstations

Data• Satellite imagery - McIDAS AREA files• Observational data – GEMPAK, text, binary; NetCDF (AWIPS)• Numerical model output – grib and GEMPAK grid• ATCF data – text files (“decks”)

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JHT Computing ResourcesJHT Computing ResourcesHardware• JHT Server

– Physically located in equipment room– HP 9000 A-class (A500 Enterprise Server)– HP-UX 11i– Two 550 MHz RISC processors– 4 GB memory– 292 GB hard disk space– DLT 8000 tape drive

• JHT Workstation– Physically located in hurricane operations area– HP workstation c3600– HP-UX 11.0– One 550 MHz RISC processor– 72 GB hard disk space– 1.5 GB memory

Software• N-AWIPS - GEMPAK

Hardware• JHT Server

– Physically located in equipment room– HP 9000 A-class (A500 Enterprise Server)– HP-UX 11i– Two 550 MHz RISC processors– 4 GB memory– 292 GB hard disk space– DLT 8000 tape drive

• JHT Workstation– Physically located in hurricane operations area– HP workstation c3600– HP-UX 11.0– One 550 MHz RISC processor– 72 GB hard disk space– 1.5 GB memory

Software• N-AWIPS - GEMPAK

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PIs / POCs connect PIs / POCs connect on public JHT sideon public JHT sidePIs / POCs connect PIs / POCs connect on public JHT sideon public JHT side

PublicPrivate

14New SHIPS model predictors

AMSU intensity and size estimates

GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades

TC rainfall climatology and persistence

(R-CLIPER) model

Probability ofrapid intensification

JHT First Round ProjectsAccepted by TPC for Operational Implementation

JHT First Round ProjectsAccepted by TPC for Operational Implementation

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Primary Areas of Focus # of Projects

Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts)

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Track forecast guidance algorithms 3

Intensity forecasting algorithms 3

Enhancements to observed data, assimilation

2

Initial intensity estimation 1

Tropical cyclogenesis 1

Rainfall 1

Total 15

JHT Second Round (FY03-04)Project Focus AreasJHT Second Round (FY03-04)Project Focus Areas

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JHT Future PlansJHT Future Plans

• Round Two projects (FY03-04 funding)– Review each project for second year of funding (FY04

funding)– Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane

season, and at least part of 2005 season– Decision in late 2005 for operational implementation

• Round Three projects (FY05-06 funding)– Release new announcement of opportunity in June 2004– Select and fund new set of projects by spring 2005– Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 and 2006

hurricane seasons– Decisions in late 2006 for operational implementation in

2007

• Round Two projects (FY03-04 funding)– Review each project for second year of funding (FY04

funding)– Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane

season, and at least part of 2005 season– Decision in late 2005 for operational implementation

• Round Three projects (FY05-06 funding)– Release new announcement of opportunity in June 2004– Select and fund new set of projects by spring 2005– Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 and 2006

hurricane seasons– Decisions in late 2006 for operational implementation in

2007

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Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)2004 Announcement of Opportunity2004 Announcement of Opportunity

Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)2004 Announcement of Opportunity2004 Announcement of Opportunity

USWRP

Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRPDr. Ward Seguin, USWRPDr. Ward Seguin, USWRPDr. Ward Seguin, USWRP

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USWRP Hurricane Landfall Priorities

USWRP Hurricane Landfall Priorities

• Reduce landfall track and intensity errors by 20 percent

• Extend track forecasts to 120 hours with an average error less than 250 nautical miles

• Increase warning lead time to 24 hours and beyond with 95% confidence

• Make skillful forecasts (compared to persistence) of gale- and hurricane-force wind radii out to 48 hours with 95% confidence

• Extend quantitative precipitation forecasts to three days and improve skill of day-three forecasts to improve inland flooding forecasts

• Reduce landfall track and intensity errors by 20 percent

• Extend track forecasts to 120 hours with an average error less than 250 nautical miles

• Increase warning lead time to 24 hours and beyond with 95% confidence

• Make skillful forecasts (compared to persistence) of gale- and hurricane-force wind radii out to 48 hours with 95% confidence

• Extend quantitative precipitation forecasts to three days and improve skill of day-three forecasts to improve inland flooding forecasts

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Operational Centers’Forecast Improvement Needs

Operational Centers’Forecast Improvement Needs

• Complementary to USWRP goalsComplementary to USWRP goals• TPC/NHC highest prioritiesTPC/NHC highest priorities

– Guidance on intensity change, esp. rapid intensity changeGuidance on intensity change, esp. rapid intensity change– Improved observations in the storm and its environmentImproved observations in the storm and its environment– ““Guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitationGuidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitation– Enhancements to the operational environment to increase Enhancements to the operational environment to increase

forecaster efficiencyforecaster efficiency– Improved storm surge guidance modelsImproved storm surge guidance models– Nine more (see announcement)Nine more (see announcement)

• EMC highest prioritiesEMC highest priorities– General model improvements to advance track and intensity General model improvements to advance track and intensity

forecastsforecasts– Improved boundary layer representation for coupled modelsImproved boundary layer representation for coupled models– Model validation techniques for 3-D hi res verificationModel validation techniques for 3-D hi res verification– Diagnostic techniques to increase utility of global modelsDiagnostic techniques to increase utility of global models

• Complementary to USWRP goalsComplementary to USWRP goals• TPC/NHC highest prioritiesTPC/NHC highest priorities

– Guidance on intensity change, esp. rapid intensity changeGuidance on intensity change, esp. rapid intensity change– Improved observations in the storm and its environmentImproved observations in the storm and its environment– ““Guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitationGuidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitation– Enhancements to the operational environment to increase Enhancements to the operational environment to increase

forecaster efficiencyforecaster efficiency– Improved storm surge guidance modelsImproved storm surge guidance models– Nine more (see announcement)Nine more (see announcement)

• EMC highest prioritiesEMC highest priorities– General model improvements to advance track and intensity General model improvements to advance track and intensity

forecastsforecasts– Improved boundary layer representation for coupled modelsImproved boundary layer representation for coupled models– Model validation techniques for 3-D hi res verificationModel validation techniques for 3-D hi res verification– Diagnostic techniques to increase utility of global modelsDiagnostic techniques to increase utility of global models

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Award InformationAward Information

• Estimate of funds available: $1,500,000• Funding of any JHT proposals is contingent

upon availability of these funds• 10 to 15 new projects likely to be funded• Period of awards is one to two years, funded

one year at a time (two-year projects reviewed near end of first year)

• Funding instrument for non-Federal applicants will be a Cooperative Agreement based on the envisioned substantial involvement of NOAA forecasters and scientists

• Estimate of funds available: $1,500,000• Funding of any JHT proposals is contingent

upon availability of these funds• 10 to 15 new projects likely to be funded• Period of awards is one to two years, funded

one year at a time (two-year projects reviewed near end of first year)

• Funding instrument for non-Federal applicants will be a Cooperative Agreement based on the envisioned substantial involvement of NOAA forecasters and scientists

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Eligible ApplicantsEligible Applicants

• Institutions of higher educationInstitutions of higher education• Other nonprofitsOther nonprofits• Commercial organizationsCommercial organizations• Foreign governmentsForeign governments• Organizations under the jurisdiction of foreign Organizations under the jurisdiction of foreign

governmentsgovernments• International organizationsInternational organizations• State, local and Indian tribal governmentsState, local and Indian tribal governments• Federal agenciesFederal agencies

• Institutions of higher educationInstitutions of higher education• Other nonprofitsOther nonprofits• Commercial organizationsCommercial organizations• Foreign governmentsForeign governments• Organizations under the jurisdiction of foreign Organizations under the jurisdiction of foreign

governmentsgovernments• International organizationsInternational organizations• State, local and Indian tribal governmentsState, local and Indian tribal governments• Federal agenciesFederal agencies

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Key DatesKey Dates

• 1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) 1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) duedue

• 25 August 2004: Government notifications of 25 August 2004: Government notifications of recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will be sentbe sent

• 15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due

• Funding expected winter or early spring 2005Funding expected winter or early spring 2005

• Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, 20052005

• 1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) 1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) duedue

• 25 August 2004: Government notifications of 25 August 2004: Government notifications of recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will be sentbe sent

• 15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due

• Funding expected winter or early spring 2005Funding expected winter or early spring 2005

• Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, 20052005

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Submission RequirementsSubmission Requirements

• Non-Federal applications require forms contained in the standard NOAA Grants and Cooperative Agreement Application Package

• Required content and format of the preapplications and full proposals will be spelled out in the announcement of opportunity

• Preapplications may be sent as printed hard copies, or, preferably, they may be submitted electronically

• Full proposals and all additionally required forms must be submitted as printed hard copies

• Electronic submission of the proposal document (without the required forms), in PDF format, is strongly encouraged to facilitate the review process

• Non-Federal applications require forms contained in the standard NOAA Grants and Cooperative Agreement Application Package

• Required content and format of the preapplications and full proposals will be spelled out in the announcement of opportunity

• Preapplications may be sent as printed hard copies, or, preferably, they may be submitted electronically

• Full proposals and all additionally required forms must be submitted as printed hard copies

• Electronic submission of the proposal document (without the required forms), in PDF format, is strongly encouraged to facilitate the review process

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Award NoticesAward Notices• Funded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of Funded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of

one to two yearsone to two years• Two-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with Two-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with

funding for a second year contingent upon favorable funding for a second year contingent upon favorable review near the end of the first year and upon available review near the end of the first year and upon available fundsfunds

• For non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, For non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing document that allows the project to begindocument that allows the project to begin

• Notifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and Notifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and the Principal Investigator of the projectthe Principal Investigator of the project

• Unsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal Unsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal was not selectedwas not selected

• Funded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of Funded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of one to two yearsone to two years

• Two-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with Two-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with funding for a second year contingent upon favorable funding for a second year contingent upon favorable review near the end of the first year and upon available review near the end of the first year and upon available fundsfunds

• For non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, For non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing document that allows the project to begindocument that allows the project to begin

• Notifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and Notifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and the Principal Investigator of the projectthe Principal Investigator of the project

• Unsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal Unsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal was not selectedwas not selected

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Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Proposal Reviews and theProposal Reviews and the

Testing and Evaluation ProcessTesting and Evaluation Process

Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Proposal Reviews and theProposal Reviews and the

Testing and Evaluation ProcessTesting and Evaluation Process

USWRP

Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst.Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst.TPC/NHC Science and Operations OfficerTPC/NHC Science and Operations Officer

James Franklin, TPC/NHC Hurricane SpecialistJames Franklin, TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialist

Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst.Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst.TPC/NHC Science and Operations OfficerTPC/NHC Science and Operations Officer

James Franklin, TPC/NHC Hurricane SpecialistJames Franklin, TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialist

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Preapplication Review ProcessPreapplication Review Process

• PIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for PIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for each planned proposaleach planned proposal

• PIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be PIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be precluded from submitting a full proposalprecluded from submitting a full proposal

• Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)reviewers)

• All PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified All PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified whether a full proposal is encouraged or discouragedwhether a full proposal is encouraged or discouraged

• All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors leading to the recommendation regarding their own leading to the recommendation regarding their own preapplication(s)preapplication(s)

• PIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for PIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for each planned proposaleach planned proposal

• PIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be PIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be precluded from submitting a full proposalprecluded from submitting a full proposal

• Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)reviewers)

• All PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified All PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified whether a full proposal is encouraged or discouragedwhether a full proposal is encouraged or discouraged

• All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors leading to the recommendation regarding their own leading to the recommendation regarding their own preapplication(s)preapplication(s)

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Full Proposal Review ProcessFull Proposal Review Process• All full proposals will receive an independent, objective All full proposals will receive an independent, objective

review in accordance with review criteria stated in the review in accordance with review criteria stated in the announcementannouncement

• Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)(and/or other designated reviewers)

• Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal)and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal)

• Scores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the Scores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by individual reviewers’ mean total scoresindividual reviewers’ mean total scores

• All applicants will receive their normalized average scores All applicants will receive their normalized average scores and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own proposalproposal

• All full proposals will receive an independent, objective All full proposals will receive an independent, objective review in accordance with review criteria stated in the review in accordance with review criteria stated in the announcementannouncement

• Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers)(and/or other designated reviewers)

• Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal)and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal)

• Scores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the Scores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by individual reviewers’ mean total scoresindividual reviewers’ mean total scores

• All applicants will receive their normalized average scores All applicants will receive their normalized average scores and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own proposalproposal

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Review Criteria (Condensed)Review Criteria (Condensed)

• Relevance to program goals (40 pts)Relevance to program goals (40 pts)– Research maturity (10 pts)Research maturity (10 pts)– Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)– Other agency use (5 pts)Other agency use (5 pts)

• Technical merit (40 pts)Technical merit (40 pts)– Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)– Testing (10 pts)Testing (10 pts)– Operational usage (10 pts)Operational usage (10 pts)– Technical compatibility (10 pts)Technical compatibility (10 pts)

• Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)

• Project costs (10 pts)Project costs (10 pts)

• Relevance to program goals (40 pts)Relevance to program goals (40 pts)– Research maturity (10 pts)Research maturity (10 pts)– Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)– Other agency use (5 pts)Other agency use (5 pts)

• Technical merit (40 pts)Technical merit (40 pts)– Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)– Testing (10 pts)Testing (10 pts)– Operational usage (10 pts)Operational usage (10 pts)– Technical compatibility (10 pts)Technical compatibility (10 pts)

• Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)

• Project costs (10 pts)Project costs (10 pts)

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What Happens After You’re FundedWhat Happens After You’re Funded

• JHT staff will provide project administration and JHT staff will provide project administration and facilitationfacilitation

• TPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster TPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster and/or technical point(s) of contactand/or technical point(s) of contact

• Establishment of project timeline with JHT Director Establishment of project timeline with JHT Director and points of contactand points of contact

• Project provided access to JHT IT environmentProject provided access to JHT IT environment• Preparations for real-time testing and evaluation Preparations for real-time testing and evaluation

beginbegin• Interactions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or Interactions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or

JHT IT Facilitator as necessaryJHT IT Facilitator as necessary

• JHT staff will provide project administration and JHT staff will provide project administration and facilitationfacilitation

• TPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster TPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster and/or technical point(s) of contactand/or technical point(s) of contact

• Establishment of project timeline with JHT Director Establishment of project timeline with JHT Director and points of contactand points of contact

• Project provided access to JHT IT environmentProject provided access to JHT IT environment• Preparations for real-time testing and evaluation Preparations for real-time testing and evaluation

beginbegin• Interactions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or Interactions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or

JHT IT Facilitator as necessaryJHT IT Facilitator as necessary

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Hotline Coordination CallHotline Coordination Call

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Time (UTC) Event Activities/Comments

1200 Forecast cycle begins

Review late models, synoptic obs, microwave data, scatterometer, etc.; begin

determining wind radii

1230 Receive fix information

Analyze recon or satellite fix data, update the best track, determine compute parameters (initial position, motion,

intensity, size)

1245 Submit compute Review model fields [submit invest computes, 2nd storm?]

1250 Retrieve guidance

Examine guidance, re-evaluate initial radii, make track, intensity radii forecasts, fill out

worksheet

1340 Prepare for conference call

Watch/Warnings, begin writing forecast discussion, [make aircraft tasking requests

for following day]

1400-1410 Conference call Coordinate forecast, watches/warnings.

1410 Prepare products [New fix], Write Public Advisory, Discussion

1430-1500 xmit products Update phone recordings, web graphics

Advisory Forecast CycleAdvisory Forecast Cycle

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Time (UTC) Event Activities/Comments

1500 Clean up workspace

Enter fixes, file paperwork

1510-1530 Prepare ATL TWO

Examine models (0-36 h), imagery, scatterometer, microwave

1530-1600 Prepare for Long-Range

Coordination call

Examine models (120-168 h)

1600 LRCC-HPC

1630-1650 Prepare EPAC TWO

Examine models, imagery, microwave, scatterometer

1715-1745 Prepare intermediate

advisory?

1745-1800 Examine 12Z models

1800 Begin next forecast cycle

Advisory Forecast CycleAdvisory Forecast Cycle

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Testing and Evaluation ActivitiesTesting and Evaluation Activities

• Pre-season preparations, including any necessary Pre-season preparations, including any necessary modifications to a techniquemodifications to a technique

• Formatting output for direct forecaster useFormatting output for direct forecaster use• Providing training, documentation, etc. needed to Providing training, documentation, etc. needed to

enable real-time useenable real-time use• Real-time testing and evaluation in a quasi-Real-time testing and evaluation in a quasi-

operational environmentoperational environment• Obtaining feedback from forecastersObtaining feedback from forecasters• Off-season simulations/case study runsOff-season simulations/case study runs• Post-season verification and evaluationPost-season verification and evaluation• Technique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications Technique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications

if necessaryif necessary• Close collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and Close collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and

funded researchers and their staffsfunded researchers and their staffs

• Pre-season preparations, including any necessary Pre-season preparations, including any necessary modifications to a techniquemodifications to a technique

• Formatting output for direct forecaster useFormatting output for direct forecaster use• Providing training, documentation, etc. needed to Providing training, documentation, etc. needed to

enable real-time useenable real-time use• Real-time testing and evaluation in a quasi-Real-time testing and evaluation in a quasi-

operational environmentoperational environment• Obtaining feedback from forecastersObtaining feedback from forecasters• Off-season simulations/case study runsOff-season simulations/case study runs• Post-season verification and evaluationPost-season verification and evaluation• Technique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications Technique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications

if necessaryif necessary• Close collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and Close collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and

funded researchers and their staffsfunded researchers and their staffs

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Reporting RequirementsDuring the Project


• Written semi-annual reportsWritten semi-annual reports• Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual

report (for review for continuation into second year)report (for review for continuation into second year)• Final report at conclusion of projectFinal report at conclusion of project

• Written semi-annual reportsWritten semi-annual reports• Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual

report (for review for continuation into second year)report (for review for continuation into second year)• Final report at conclusion of projectFinal report at conclusion of project

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Input for JHT Project ReportsInput for JHT Project Reportsto the TPC Directorto the TPC Director

Input for JHT Project ReportsInput for JHT Project Reportsto the TPC Directorto the TPC Director

• Project PI final reportProject PI final report• JHT staff members’ assessmentsJHT staff members’ assessments• TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedbackTPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback• JHT IT Facilitator reportJHT IT Facilitator report

– IT transfer statusIT transfer status– Compatibility and support issuesCompatibility and support issues– Estimates of costs to implement and supportEstimates of costs to implement and support– Input from TPC Technical Support Branch ChiefInput from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

• Project PI final reportProject PI final report• JHT staff members’ assessmentsJHT staff members’ assessments• TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedbackTPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback• JHT IT Facilitator reportJHT IT Facilitator report

– IT transfer statusIT transfer status– Compatibility and support issuesCompatibility and support issues– Estimates of costs to implement and supportEstimates of costs to implement and support– Input from TPC Technical Support Branch ChiefInput from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

38

• Provide baseline TC rainfall forecasts for assessing skill of other methods

• Develop R-CLIPER from gauge and TMI climatology for operational and model QPF comparisons

• Project climatology along forecast track

Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone RainfallClimatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) ModelPI: Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD)POC: Stacy Stewart and Hugh Cobb (TPC), David Roth (HPC)Status: Accepted by TPC for operational implementation

39

Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone RainfallClimatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model

Example real-time output in NAWIPS during Hurricane Lili (2002)

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Considerations for operational implementation decision

Favorable:• Provides baseline forecast, as originally intended, needed to evaluate the skill of other sources of TC rainfall guidance (primarily dynamical models, as in the new JHT project funded in FY03)

• TPC and HPC forecasters have found the guidance to be useful operationally (e.g., for preparing generalized rainfall information in public advisories)

• Code has been transferred to TPC where it is run and maintained locally

• Gempak/NMAP2 graphical output already routinely available to specialists for each active TC in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins

• Negligible CPU, disk space, memory to run; minimal support required

Unfavorable:• Unclear reason for needed adjustment factor to final output

• Verification results not yet completed

• Does not account for storm asymmetries

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Example content for IT report to TPC Director

42

Factors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementationfor Operational ImplementationFactors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementationfor Operational Implementation

• Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

• Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsconstraints and ease of use needs

• Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.

• Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support

• Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

• Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsconstraints and ease of use needs

• Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.

• Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support

43





USWRP

Open DiscussionOpen Discussion

Website: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht/index.htmlWebsite: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht/index.html

Open DiscussionOpen Discussion

Website: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht/index.htmlWebsite: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht/index.html

44

Supplemental SlidesSupplemental SlidesSupplemental SlidesSupplemental Slides

USWRP

45



• Award recipients are required to submit performance Award recipients are required to submit performance (technical) reports to the JHT Director(technical) reports to the JHT Director

• Electronic submission preferredElectronic submission preferred• All reports will be submitted on a semi-annual All reports will be submitted on a semi-annual

schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end of each 6-month periodof each 6-month period

• Comprehensive final report due 90 days after award Comprehensive final report due 90 days after award expirationexpiration

• Award recipients are required to submit performance Award recipients are required to submit performance (technical) reports to the JHT Director(technical) reports to the JHT Director

• Electronic submission preferredElectronic submission preferred• All reports will be submitted on a semi-annual All reports will be submitted on a semi-annual

schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end of each 6-month periodof each 6-month period

• Comprehensive final report due 90 days after award Comprehensive final report due 90 days after award expirationexpiration

46

Time (UTC) Task / Event

00:00 Synoptic time, cycle begins

00:45 Receive satellite fix data

01:00 Initialize models

01:20Receive model guidance, begin preparing forecast

02:00NWS/DOD hotline coordination call

03:00 Advisory package deadline

03:15 FEMA conference call

06:00 Next cycle begins

TPC/NHC Six-hour Forecast CycleTPC/NHC Six-hour Forecast Cycle

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Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02)

Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02)

• Ten projects were funded in FY01• One was denied second year funding• Six were accepted for operational implementation • Decisions on two projects were deferred until the completion of closely related new projects• One was not accepted for operational implementation at this time

• Ten projects were funded in FY01• One was denied second year funding• Six were accepted for operational implementation • Decisions on two projects were deferred until the completion of closely related new projects• One was not accepted for operational implementation at this time

48

FY03 Announcement of OpportunityFY03 Announcement of Opportunity• Preparation, revision, and legal review of Federal

Register Notice (FRN) Aug-Dec 2002• FRN released January 2003• Open to government, academic, and private

sector applicants worldwide• Estimated total available funding $1.5M

• Preparation, revision, and legal review of Federal Register Notice (FRN) Aug-Dec 2002

• FRN released January 2003• Open to government, academic, and private

sector applicants worldwide• Estimated total available funding $1.5M

Summary of Second Round of Projects Funded in Late FY03Summary of Second Round of Projects Funded in Late FY03

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NOAA65%

Navy (NPS, NRL) and USAF

12%

State and Private

Universities23%

Funding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA

Funding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA

NOAA49%

Private Companies

2%

State and Private

Universities34%

Navy (NPS, NRL)15%

FY2003$1.35MFY2003$1.35M

FY2002$1.2M

FY2002$1.2M

1 joint hurricane test bed (jht) opportunities for transfer of research and technology into tropical...

Documents

jht reports

operational implementation

operational setting

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evaluation activities

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nasa hurricane test

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