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JHSAT Metrics & Continued Analysis

Roy Fox IHST Carmel 28 November 06

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Topics

1. JHSAT International Support

2. JHSAT Progress Metrics

3. JHSAT Process 2001 Forward

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1. IHST International Support IHST• Goal settings• Worldwide involvement (marketing safety)JHSAT• Identify root causes and interventions (data driven)• Measure actual fleet effectiveness toward 80% reductionJHSIT• Develop Implementation approaches and implement

interventions.• Measure implementation progress.

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JHSIT Dilemmas1. Operations/regulations are country specific. No single

set of regulations.2. Implementations must fit within a country’s

regulations.3. Some Implementations will be common worldwide.

Many Implementations may be included voluntary.4. Implementation approaches may vary country to

country (or regional organization).JHSIT lead (core) group coordinates & guides JHSIT

regional teams (subgroups) in their regional efforts.JHSIT lead group will develop worldwide

implementations as consistent as possible and monitor implementation progress of JHSIT regional teams.

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JHSAT DilemmasIntervention recommendations to be data & frequency driven.

Different pockets of accident datasets exist around the world.

Some government reports are not released to the public, (military service).

Accurate fleet flight hours are not available in most countries.

Different operating rules, regulations and limitations. Implementation driven within a country regulations although some interventions may be done voluntary.

Country stakeholders are part of the solution within their country. Must consider regional limitations.

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JHSAT Supports Regional Implementations

• Implementations will be regional and regional accident data driven.

• Still need a common worldwide analysis approach that can be applied to regional datasets (within their unique limits/regulations)

• Not all countries/organizations will participate.

Process developed, controlled, and taught by the JHSAT Lead Group.

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JHSAT Teams• JHSAT Lead Group: train regional JHSAT Teams • Same analysis technique used.• Training: 2-3 members of a new JHSAT Team

– Participate in one or two JHSAT meetings

– Lead JHSAT Group continue regional Teams assistance.

• JHSAT Teams: Same format/worksheet and use their regional accidents.

Team: Their purpose is to identify root causes and interventions of their accidents so can be passed to their region’s JHSIT Team.

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2. Metrics: Are We Going to Meet the 80% Reduction Goals?

• Goal progress must be measured to be effective

• Measured by country and total worldwide

• Compare IHST participant countries vs. non-participants

• Allow early redirection of efforts. Refocus.

• Metrics means need to be in-place for year 2007.

If you measure it, you know if improving or getting worse.

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Civil Helicopter Worldwide Fleet (End of 2004)

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Year 2000 Accident

Slice

Country of Registry2000

Accidents % AllUnited States (Civil) 195 36.6%

U.S. Military 109 20.5%Canada 46 8.6%UK: England, Scotland, Wales 27 5.1%France 14 2.6%Australia, Russia 13 ea. 4.9%South Africa 10 1.9%Brazil, Switzerland 8 ea. 3.0%Germany, Italy, New Zealand 6 ea. 3.4%Mexico, Indonesia 5 ea. 1.9%Argentina, Japan, Sweden 4 ea. 2.3%Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Malaysia, Thailand 3 ea. 2.8%Greenland, Guatemala, Philippines, Romania, South Korea, Taiwan, Venzuela 2 ea. 2.6%Algeria, Austria, China, Denmark, India, Iran, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Spain, Swaziland, Turkey, Turks & Caicos, UAE

1 ea. 3.9%

Worldwide Accidents 533 100.0%

Euro = 66 (11.9%)

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Measuring Annual Progress

1. Accident count/year

2. Accident rate/100,000 hr

3. Individual Risk of Fatal Injury/100,000 occupant hrRFI = Accidents/100,000 hr X (Number of fatalities/total number onboard)

Worldwide

By Individual Country (or region)

Compare rates: IHST participants vs. non-participants

Progress report to IHST each year

Interim reports to Regional JHSAT/JHSITs.

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Developing Accurate

Flight Hours

• Bell tracks individual aircraft by serial • number for annual flight hours• HAI starting using same approach under FAA R&D

to accumulate individual hours. Voluntary - some HAI members participate.

• Annual rollup to group segment:– Unique A/C hours calculated (year start versus end points)– Unique A/C hours rolled up to model series (206)– Series rolled up to major group segment (single turbine).

• Bell developing flight hours for ALL civil helicopters worldwide. 2000 and beyond.

S/N 30XX Flight Hours

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1/1/

1980

1/1/

1982

1/1/

1984

1/1/

1986

1/1/

1988

1/1/

1990

1/1/

1992

1/1/

1994

1/1/

1996

1/1/

1998

1/1/

2000

1/1/

2002

1/1/

2004

Year

To

tal H

ou

rs

USA USAUK

Output to IHST

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206B Flight Hours - 25 YearsS/N 30XX Flight Hours

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1/1

/1980

1/1

/1982

1/1

/1984

1/1

/1986

1/1

/1988

1/1

/1990

1/1

/1992

1/1

/1994

1/1

/1996

1/1

/1998

1/1

/2000

1/1

/2002

1/1

/2004

Year

To

tal

Ho

urs

USA USAUK

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Flight Hour Example from MMIR

EC135 S/N XX NXXXXX

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

01/01

/98

01/01

/99

01/01

/00

01/01

/01

01/01

/02

01/01

/03

01/01

/04

01/01

/05

01/01

/06

01/01

/07

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Flight Hour Information Needed

• An flight hour data point for a single helicopter:– Model– Serial Number– Registry Number– Date– Total Cumulative Airframe Flight Hours

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Sources of Flight Hour Data

• MMIRs

• SDRs, AIDS (USA)

• Accident Reports

• Anytime an individual aircraft total airframe time is known. (maintenance, registry change, Certification of Airworthiness, etc.)

• Internet, sales, helicopter clubs, etc.

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UK CAA has detail flight hours in Registry for sale.

ICAO starting similar with 4 countries.

Need to involve ICAO/CAA into IHST and they can provide individual aircraft flight hours/registry inputs.

Need JHSIT assistance.

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Worldwide Civil Flight Hours Status: 10 Nov 06

• 28,933 different civil registered helicopters worldwide during 2000-2006 period.

• Some destroyed and no-longer exist. Some changed country registries.

• Helicopters with usable flight hours data (10 Nov 06):

– 8,873 A/C have data points ready (30.7% done)– 15,211 A/C in work (have data points, registry being checked) (52.6%)

– 57,488 data points in work

• September started adding non-Bells. With JHSIT help, expect worldwide hours available Spring 07.

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Needed from Each Country Regulatory Agency

For each civil registered helicopter, provide the following data point information of total airframe flight hour points in time.

1. For a date in 1999 or earlier2. For a date in late 2006 (or latest available) 3. For the date that the helicopter entered the country registry.4. For the date that the helicopter left the country registry.

A data point contains the following minimum elements:- Model- Registry Number- A/C Serial Number- Date- Total Time of Airframe Flight Hours (rounded to nearest whole hour) on that date.

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Flight Hour Example – Regulatory Support

EC135 S/N XX NXXXXX

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

01/01

/98

01/01

/99

01/01

/00

01/01

/01

01/01

/02

01/01

/03

01/01

/04

01/01

/05

01/01

/06

01/01

/07

Aircraft left Country X for Y

Aircraft entered Country X

We can fill in if we know entry/exit dates/points

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JHSAT Metrics Effort Request

• JHSIT Regulatory members contact countries worldwide and request flight hour data point information for all civil helicopters.

• Request ICAO provide regulatory data points support.• Provide flight hour data point information to JHSAT

Cochairs (Mark Liptak and Jack Drake) and copy Roy Fox (flightsafety @ bellhelicopter.textron.com)

• Schedule: Inputs by end of 2006 will allow JHSAT to have metrics for 2000 report to IHST in early 2007.

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Worldwide Flight Hour Program Outputs

• Annual fleet flight hours to be accumulated into 3 groups within a country registry:– Single piston– Single turbine– Twin turbine

• Flight hours will be furnished back to regional JHSAT/JHSITs to be used in intervention strategies and fleet safety improvements. Assist in cost effectiveness analyses.

• JHSITs to furnish a country’s flight hours back to that country.• Worldwide metrics rates to be determined annually.• Metrics rates by country to be determined annually.

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3. JHSAT 2001 Approach • Same approach as used on 2000 accidents but use 2 sub-teams

(like Nov. meeting) to cover 50 accidents/ week mtg (doubled prior outputs).

• Meet 4-6 times/year. (presently monthly)• Finish 2001 accidents/report by end of 2007.• Try adding a key-words commonality identifier approach for

potential analysis speedup for repeating accident sequences.• Compare commonality between 2000 and 2001 accidents.

– Modes, missions, frequencies, etc.

• Continue training/standardization of regional JHSATs• Continue individual country and worldwide metrics, flight hours,

& reports to IHST & JHSITs.• Start measuring potential IHST effects starting in 2007.

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Summary• Data/implementation will be regional whereas analysis

process is constant.• JHSAT training to ensure consistent accident analysis

process.• Metrics of participating countries & worldwide

– Accident counts– Accident rate/100,000 hr– Individual risk of fatal injury/100,000 occupant hr

• Flight exposure information lacking• JHSAT is developing country & worldwide flight hours

– Single piston– Single turbine– Twin turbine

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Recommendations

1. JHSIT needs to be initiated soon.

2. Regulatory members need to establish regulatory contacts/agreements to provide date & flight hours data points at helicopter entry/exit dates on their civil registry.