1 indicators systems x synthetic indicators. the role of composite indicators to communicate...
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INDICATORS SYSTEMS x SYNTHETIC INDICATORS.The role of composite indicators to communicate environmental and related statistics: a practical
example
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics – IBGE *
IAOS 2010 – Santiago, Chile
October 2010
Wadih João Scandar Neto
* The opinions are responsibility of the author and not necessarily represent the opinions of IBGE
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Synthetic (composite) Indicators x
Indicators System
• Two emblematic phrases:
– “Composite indicators are confusing entities whereby apples
and pears are added up in absence of a formal model or
justification.”
– “Composite indicators are a way of distilling reality into a
manageable form.”
(SALTELLI et al., 2004)
• Other contributions to controversy discussion:
– RYTEN (2000), JANNUZZI (2002), SCANDAR NETO (2006)
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Synthetic (composite) Indicators x
Indicators System
• Some questions about this controversy:
– The construction of synthetic indicators can aggregate
information for policy and decision makers?
– Is it possible to create a synthetic indicator without loosing
information about the primary indicators?
– Is it useful to communicate complex issues?
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Reduction
Locality
Particularity
Materiality
Multiplicity
Continuity
Compatibility
Standardization
Text
Calculation
Circulation
Relative universality
Enlargement
stages
Reduction
Locality
Particularity
Materiality
Multiplicity
Continuity
Compatibility
Standardization
Text
Calculation
Circulation
Relative universality
Enlargement
stages
• An epistemological motivation
The Triangle of Latour
Why construct synthetic indicators?
Examples:
Census, Maps
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Steps to construct a synthetic indicator
Conceptual discussion
Adoption of a framework
Selection of the primary
indicators
Transformation of variables
(standardization)
Agglutination method
Evaluation of results
Presentation of results
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Sustainable Development Index of Rio de Janeiro State Municipalities
– 43 700 Km2
– 16 million Inhab.
– 92 Municipalities
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Sustainable Development Index of Rio de Janeiro State Municipalities
A brief of methodological options:
– Concept and Framework: The UNSDC 2001 recommendations for
Sustainable Development Indicators, four dimensions (environmental,
social, economical and institutional)
– Primary indicators: 30 indicators in the four dimensions, following
the national SDI, adapting to municipal availability and particularity
– Standardization: transform each variable into a scale from 0 to 1
– Agglutination method: Simple Mean, after testing Principal
Components and Multicriteria Analysis.
Details (SCANDAR NETO, 2006)
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Sustainable Development Index of Rio de Janeiro State MunicipalitiesPrimary indicators
Dimensions Themes IndicatorsProportion of population with per capita income above 1 / 2 minimum wageAverage monthly incomeOccupancy rateGini index of household income per capitaRatio between the average income of women / menRatio between the average income black people / white people
Child mortality rateLife expectancy at birthNumber of beds per thousand inhabitantsNumber of physicians per inhabitant jobsNumber of health facilities per thousand inhabitantsNumber of hospital admissions for illnesses related to inadequate environmental sanitation per hundred thousand inhabitants
Schooling rate of children aged 7 to 14Adult schoolingAdult literacy rate
Housing Proportion of permanent households with a density of up to two residents per bedroom Homicides mortality rateMortality from traffic accidents
Fleet of cars per hundred inhabitantsPotential industrial pollution per 1000 inhabitants
Land Percentage of area of vegetation remaining on the total area
Proportion of residents in households with access to water supply systemProportion of residents in households with access to waste collectionProportion of residents in households with access to sanitation
GDP per capitaProportion of the construction sector over total GDP
Electric power consumption per capitaElectric energy consumption per unit of GDP
Proportion of households with Internet access possibility
Number of phone lines per hundred inhabitantsInstitutional capacity
Eco
no m
ical
Inst
itu
tiona
l
Education
Atmosphere
Sanitation
Economic Capacity
Patterns of production and consumption
Env
ironm
enta
l
Income
Health
Violence
Soc
ial
9How to represent the indicators - The maps
46 maps are necessary to represent the 30 primary indicators, 11 themes, 4 dimensions and the SDI.
• Five examples:SDI, Env., Social, Econ. and Inst. Indexes.
10Alternative way to represent the indicators - The basic Chart
The basic chart – join a column chart with a box-plot
11The Graphical Synthesis
Médiaposto
IDS= 0,68 11
Ind. Social= 0,41 74
Ind. Ambiental= 1,00 1
Ind. Econômico= 0,54 35
Ind. Institucional= 0,24 25
Angra dos Reis
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
tsr1 tsr2 tsr3 tsr4 tsr5 tsr6 tss1 tss2 tss3 tss4 tss5 tss6 tse1 tse2 tse3 tsh1 tsv1 tsv2 taa1 taa2 tat1 tas1 tas2 tas3 teq1 teq2 tep1 tep2 tic1 tic2
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
Imd.sr Imd.ss Imd.se Imd.sh Imd.sv Imd.aa Imd.at Imd.as Imd.eq Imd.ep Imd.ic
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
Imd.s Imd.a Imd.e Imd.i0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
Imd.ds0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
12The Numerical Synthesis
Angra dos Reis
Original 0 - 1 Rank 0 - 1 Rank 0 - 1 Rank 0 - 1 Rank
sr1 Proportion of population with per capita income above 1 / 2 minimum wage 75,59 0,64 34
sr2 Average monthly income 592 0,28 13
sr3 Occupancy rate 78,65 0,14 81
sr4 Gini index of household income per capita 0,55 0,50 35
sr5 Ratio between the average income of women / men 0,63 0,20 71sr6 Ratio between the average income black people / white people 0,70 0,61 23
ss1 Child mortality rate 20,14 0,67 44
ss2 Life expectancy at birth 69,14 0,59 45
ss3 Number of beds per thousand inhabitants 1,89 0,03 58
ss4 Number of physicians per inhabitant jobs 2,96 0,06 53
ss5 Number of health facilities per thousand inhabitants 0,37 0,22 69ss6
Number of hospital admissions for illnesses related to inadequate environmental sanitation per hundred thousand inhabitants 45 0,96 14
se1 Schooling rate of children aged 7 to 14 95,87 0,51 54
se2 Adult schooling 5,93 0,41 32se3 Adult literacy rate 91,06 0,75 27sh1 Proportion of permanent households with a density of up to two residents per bedroom 68,01 0,40 77 Housing 0,40 77
sv1 Homicides mortality rate 36,64 0,51 63sv2 Mortality from traffic accidents 21,80 0,77 44
aa1 Fleet of cars per hundred inhabitants 14,64 0,71 52aa2 Potential industrial pollution per 1000 inhabitants 2,00 1,00 18at1 Percentage of area of vegetation remaining on the total area 87,41 1,00 2 Land 1,00 1
as1 Proportion of residents in households with access to water supply system 87,21 0,89 13
as2 Proportion of residents in households with access to waste collection 96,73 0,96 8as3 Proportion of residents in households with access to sanitation 77,78 0,80 31
eq1 GDP per capita 10.274 0,06 32eq2 Proportion of the construction sector over total GDP 12,45 0,26 38
ep1 Electric power consumption per capita 1,54 0,89 74
ep2 Electric energy consumption per unit of GDP 0,18 0,87 17
ic1 Proportion of households with Internet access possibility 7,48 0,15 18ic2 Number of phone lines per hundred inhabitants 21,71 0,33 27
0,88
0,24
0,88
0,22
0,41
1,00
SDI
0,54
0,24 25
Income
Health
Education
Violence
Atmosphere
Sanitation
Economic Capacity
Patterns of production and consumption
Institutional capacity
Social
Environmental
Economical
Institutional
0,27
0,26
0,58
0,54
0,77
64
69
32
59
45
10
37
27
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Primary Indicators Thematic Index Dimension IndexSustainable Development
Index
0,68
25
74
1
35
13Other statistical information
Scatter plotThe variable profile (descriptive statistics)
Correlation = 0,604 R2= 0,365
Social Dimension IndexS
DI
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00
The system to present the results may content other information, for example, descriptive statistics or scatter plot showing the relationship between two variables
oss1 Child mortality rate
MinimumLower
WhiskerQ 1 Median Q 3
Upper Whisker
Maximum
11,04 11,04 17,82 20,29 23,86 27,63 38,69
Box-Plot
MeanStandard Deviation
20,70 4,47
Upper Five Lower FiveVarre-Sai 38,69 Quatis 11,04Miracema 27,63 Niterói 11,96Italva 27,63 Itaperuna 12,76Duas Barras 27,62 Pinheiral 13,91Natividade 26,63 Nova Friburgo 14,04
Profile of:
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
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Conclusion
• The process of successive synthesis, coupled with its
presentation, adds more information for the decision maker,
compared to the separate analysis of 30 tables. It organizes the
overview of the primary indicators.
• It breaks, in part at least, the dichotomy “synthetic indicator x
indicator system”. The "synthesis" can not ignore the "system"
and the "synthesis" becomes a powerful descriptive tool, not
only a model to rank the municipalities.
• This is still an experimental field that may offer alternatives to the
official statistical organizations to better fulfill their role of
informing the society and decision makers.
