IAP/CAS

NATURAL DISASTER MITIGATION -- 2006 Workplan and Budget

Lead Academy:

Chinese Academy of Sciences March 28, 2006 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Outline 1. 2005 Work Summary

2. 2006 Work Plan

3. 2006 Budget

IAP Initiative of Global Natural Hazards and Disaster ReductionMembers:

Participates:

ThailandUSASwedenCubaBangladeshJapanIndonesianIndiaNigeriaChina

2005 Work Summary From Jan. to Sept., 2005Two International Workshops on Tsunami in Beijing , China in June and Phuket, Thailand in SeptemberThree international experts tele-conferences;Three Chinese experts meetings; Eight CAS working group meetings. The working document Global Natural Hazards and Disaster Reduction has been finished in its Fourth version which has come out based on the comments from USA, Sweden, Indonesia, Japan, India, Cuba, Bangladesh , Thailand and China etc. Report to IAP EC Meeting, Oct. 2005

The Document of IAP Initiative

The Outline of the Document Five parts in the document: A. Global natural hazards ; B. Scientific Disaster Prevention and Reduction (present situation, problems and tendency) ; C. The responsibilities of the whole society in disaster prevention and reduction. D. Recommendations and suggestions for scientific disaster prevention and reduction. E. Scientific modern system of disaster reduction .

Scientific Problems on Disaster Mitigation Observation System of Globe Disaster Key Scientific Problems: A. To transform natural changing data into Disaster information. B. To find Disaster from different systems together.

Scientific Problems on Disaster Mitigation Conformity of Disaster Information Key Scientific Problems: A. Collect disaster information and assessment disaster B. Conformity of different systems on natural disasters; C. Conformity of all information for finding major disaster D. Simulation of disaster information; E. Standard of disaster information.

Scientific Problems on Disaster Mitigation Integrative S&T System for Disaster Reduction Key Scientific Problems: A. The real-time monitoring and data processing ability; B. Integrated processing platform: C. Comprehensive disaster database D. Disaster processing and analysis system; E. Assessment system for disaster situations; F. Decision support system; G. Issue system of disaster situations;

2006 Work PlanScientific Focus on:

a. Three major disasters Storm Earthquake Flood b. Two kinds of disasters Mechanism: Known and unknown c. Comprehensive study Science Hi-tech

The Categories of major sudden disasters:Storms (including tsunamis, typhoons, storm tides, etc.) Earthquakes Floods Others (volcanoes, geological disasters, biological disasters, fires, etc.) Global Major Natural DisastersFrom 1950 to 1999 (Murchener Ruck Munich Re Group, 1999), all kinds of sudden natural disasters (excluding drought) have resulted in: A death toll of up to 1,400,000 Economic losses up to US$ 960 billion

Chart6

0.380.290.270.06

0.450.470.070.01

0.280.350.30.07

Storms

Earthquakes

Floods

Others

Sheet1

FrequencyDeath TollEconomic Loss

Storms38%45%28%

Earthquakes29%47%35%

Floods27%7%30%

Others6%1%7%

Sheet1

Storms

Earthquakes

Floods

Others

Sheet2

Sheet3

Severe Scenario of Natural DisastersRecent Serious Major Natural Disasters Continuously Threaten Human Being

a. Great Tsunami in Indian Ocean Killed nearly 300,000 People. (There had no pre-warning, no awareness, no preparedness, no response system)b. Hurricane Katrina Hit USA Last Sep. Over 1,000 people killed, more than US$ 100 Billion lost (Exact prediction, but weak Preparedness)c. Huge earthquake in South Asian last Oct. caused a death toll of 76,000, 4.0 million people homeless (No prediction, no pre-warning, no preparedness) d. Disastrous Landslide in the Philippines this year buried about 1,800 people there. ( Lack of pre-warning, awareness, preparedness emergency response system)

Scientific Problems on Disaster ReductionTwo kinds of Disaster in the World:

Mechanism of Disaster is known (Typhoon, Flood, etc.) We will pay attention on ForecastingPre-waningSystemof Disaster Reduction and Emergency Response, etc.

Mechanism of Disaster is unknown (Earthquake, Tsunami): We will pay attention on MechanismSystem of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Response, etc.

MC SYSTEM

What differences for DR or Non-DR?Three Major Floods in Yangtze River of China in 20th Century

Non Disaster Reduction 1931 Flood, 140000 Persons died 1954 Flood 30000 Persons diedDisaster Reduction 1998 Flood 3000 Persons died. Two 2005 Major Hurricanes of USA:

Non Disaster Reduction Hurricane Katrina 100 BN US$ Lost, 1200 Persons died; Disaster Reduction Hurricane Lita 5 BN US$ Lost, 2 Persons died.

Hurricane Katrina hit USA on Aug. 29, 2005 Losses more than 100 BN US$ 1200 people were killed

* Mechanism of natural disaster ; * Prediction of natural disaster * Assessment of natural disaster; * Pre-warning and emergency response to natural disaster * Integrated study on natural disaster.

2006 Work Plan1. Enhancement of the Public Awareness of Disaster Mitigation Modification of the Document3. Training Course on Disaster Mitigation In Developing CountriesCo-operation with other international organizations

Working Focus on :

2006 Working PlanEnhancement of the Public Awareness of Disaster Mitigation

An IAP Statement on Natural Disaster Mitigation

Schedule for the statement: Sep.10, the first draft of the statement; Oct.10, the second draft of the statement; Nov.10, the final version of the statement.

D. 2006 Working Plan

2. Document would be modified

Global Natural Hazards and Disaster Reduction would be modified and streamlined into Natural Disaster Mitigation.

Schedule for Modification: Aug.30 the first draft Sept. 30 the second draft Oct. 30 the final version

2006 Working Plan3.Training Course on Disaster Mitiga. In Developing Countries An international training course on Environment & Disaster will be held in Beijing, China, Oct. 2006 Participants from about 15 developing countries

D. 2006 Working Plan4. Co-operation with other international organizations # The Introduction of IAP initiative aroused great harmonious response of CODATA ICSU at the 16th CODATA DSAO Task Group conference in Bangkok, Thailand, Jan. 12-13,2006. # The CODATA has great enthusiasm to co-operate with IAP In the Field of Natural Disaster Mitigation and support to Establish a new task group under CODATA in this area. # A proposal has been submitted to CODATA Secretariat to set up a task group on Comprehensive Information System for Natural Disaster Mitigation, which will be discussed at CODATA meeting.

Several key points:

Outreach to UN and governmentsMore IAP academies involvedDiscuss & Cooperate with ICSUSpecific IAP niche

Two important output before IAP GA:

Report and Statement

Estimated Budget in 2006

Estimated Budget in 2006Budget proposal funding in 2006:

From IAP:US$ 30,000

From CAS: RMB 400,000 Yuan

Real-time RS data from satellites.governmentsEmergency reliefReconstruction after disasterDecision supporting system

Real-time regular surface datameteorologyoceanhydrology.earthquakeagricultureforestryenvironment

Real-time tracking monitoringfor disasterForecasting and Pre-warning for disasterAssessment for disasterGISDisaster-caused factersReal-time disaster dataRemote sensing dataDisaster-situation Analysis Numerical simulationAssessment before disasterAssessment during disasterAssessment after disasterReal-time disaster data from Gov.Real-time disaster-caused factors Real-time disaster situationHistoric disaster situation Socio-economics, population GIS information Terrain & topographyRisk assessment Land use Comprehensive database for disaster reductionDisaster information processing platformDisaster preventionThe flow chart of integrated disaster-reducing scientific demo system for major disaster in ocean and coast